Recently, Jiangxi, Shandong, Hunan, Hubei Yichang and other places have predicted the arrival of the peak of the local epidemic, the synthesis of more concentrated in January next year.
Multiple predictions
January next year will enter the peak of infection
December 15, Jiangxi Province, the new Crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control work press conference, according to expert analysis and judgment, Jiangxi Province, the next wave of the epidemic peak will be at the end of this year, the beginning of next year in January, before and after the Spring Festival to reach its peak.
Dong Liang, head of the medical treatment expert group of the Shandong Province's new coronary pneumonia outbreak disposal work command, said recently that Shandong's outbreak prevention and control work is more rigorous and in place, and that the first wave of the peak will be slightly delayed compared with other regions. "I expect it should be in January next year. In addition, cities are more densely populated than rural areas, and the peak of the epidemic in rural areas will be relatively later."
According to a Hunan Daily 18 report, relevant experts said the exact date of the epidemic peak in Hunan cannot be predicted to which day, but according to the current development of the epidemic, it will peak around the Spring Festival.
According to a Yichang release on Dec. 15, Du Debing, head of the medical treatment expert group for new coronary pneumonia in Yichang, Hubei province, and vice president of Yichang No. 3 People's Hospital, said Yichang is expected to see a peak of infections in the first half of January next year, but will not see an 80-90 percent infection rate.
Wu Zunyou: this winter's epidemic
Can be summarized as "a peak of three waves"
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, chief epidemiologist Wu Zunyou, pointed out in the analysis of the annual meeting of the "Finance and Economy" on the 17th, the epidemic this winter can be summarized as "a peak of three waves. ".
From mid-December to mid-January will be the first wave of the epidemic, the first wave is mainly urban, and gradually will rise up.
The second wave will be from late January to mid-February, with the movement of people before the Chinese New Year causing the second wave of the epidemic to rise.
The third wave is from late February to mid-March, when people return to work after the Spring Festival.
The three waves of outbreaks make up the peak of this winter's new crown epidemic, which lasts about three months.
Wu Zunyou said the infection rate for this winter's epidemic is estimated at 10-30 percent.
Zhang Boli: the next 1 to 2 months
will usher in a wave of epidemic peak
Zhang Boli academician said in an interview on December 14, according to the current domestic situation, the Omicron strain has been spreading in the community, and in the winter influenza, the high incidence of influenza, the common cold season, the next 1 to 2 months will usher in a wave of epidemic peak.
Zhang Wenhong: the peak of the epidemic
may come within a month
December 12, the director of the National Center for Infectious Diseases Medicine, Fudan University Affiliated Huashan Hospital, Professor Zhang Wenhong, published an article on the "Huashan Infection" public number, called for a new crown epidemic is entering the "last leg" of the epidemic.
In an article published on the public website of "Huashan Infection", Professor Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Center for Infectious Diseases at Fudan University, called for the new epidemic to enter the "last leg" and eventually shift to a seasonal epidemic, which now requires the mobilization of the whole society to protect the elderly and vulnerable people, the most central principle of which is that we should do everything in our power to delay the infection of the elderly group, and to minimize the number of elderly people infected in the first wave of the epidemic peak.
Zhang Wenhong said: the peak of this epidemic may come within a month, suggesting that the elderly this month do not go to square dancing, rubbing mahjong, children visit the elderly to wear N95 masks.
Extended reading:
Multiple predictions for next January to meet the peak of the epidemic infection, how to grasp the window to fight the initiative?
December 18 afternoon, the epidemic prevention and control work in Zhejiang Province, a news conference introduced, according to a number of research models at home and abroad, the first wave of the epidemic in Zhejiang is expected to usher in the peak around mid-January next year, and does not rule out the possibility of early arrival.
With the development of the epidemic, recently, a number of places one after another in the prediction of the arrival of the local epidemic peak time. Comprehensive view, into January next year, many places will usher in the epidemic infection peak, which coincides with the Lunar New Year, the epidemic will be accompanied by population flows to accelerate the spread of.
In the face of the arrival of the epidemic peak, how to seize the window period, prepare in advance, will become the key.
Many places will enter the infection peak in January next year
December 15, Jiangxi Provincial Government Information Office held a press conference on the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Province, the epidemic prevention and control of the command of the integrated group, the medical treatment team leader Gong Jianping, according to the experts to analyze and research, the next wave of the epidemic in Jiangxi Province peak will be at the end of this year in December, the beginning of next year to come in early January, before and after the Spring Festival Reach the peak.
At present, more regions are predicting that the peak of local infections will be in January next year.
Dong Liang, head of the medical treatment expert group of the Shandong Province's new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak disposal work command, said recently that Shandong's outbreak prevention and control work is more rigorous and in place, and that the first wave of the peak will be slightly delayed compared with other regions. "I expect it should be in January next year. In addition, cities are more densely populated than rural areas, and the peak of the epidemic in rural areas will be relatively later."
Related experts said the exact date of the peak of the epidemic in Hunan could not be predicted to which day, but according to the current development of the epidemic, it would peak around the Spring Festival, according to local media reports.
Chinese *** Cangnan County Propaganda Department WeChat public number "Cangnan release" news on December 15, industry insiders predicted that the first wave of the epidemic peak in Cangnan is very likely to come in the middle and late January next year, and human intervention will be a certain deviation from the arrival of the peak time.
According to the Yichang release on Dec. 15, Du Debing, head of the medical treatment expert group of Yichang City's new coronary pneumonia and vice president of Yichang City's No. 3 People's Hospital, said Yichang is expected to see a peak of infections in the first half of January next year, but will not see an 80-90 percent infection rate.
Prejudging the timing of the peak of the local epidemic will help to seize the window period and prepare in advance.
For example, Gong Jianping, head of the integrated group and medical treatment team of the Jiangxi Provincial Epidemic Prevention and Control Command, introduced that the command system at all levels in Jiangxi province is on standby and has entered into a state of emergency and set up a special team for medical treatment and rescue work to set up an epidemic monitoring, early-warning and trend-simulation system to prejudge the spread of the epidemic scenario in a timely manner, and to flexibly reflect the corresponding medical loads for the initiative of prevention and control work.
How to respond in advance
The fight against the new coronavirus outbreak has shifted from the initial quick-fix battle to the Armageddon, preserving health and preventing serious illnesses, is an important goal at present. As the number of infected people increases, it is inevitable that the rate of serious illness will also rise. Once the rate of serious illness increases in a large area, medical resources will face the risk of being struck through. How to do a good job of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment to prevent medical resources from being squeezed has become the focus. And after entering January, all parts of the country are also gradually entering the Spring Festival homecoming peak, there will be a large-scale flow of people from the big cities to return to the countryside, and the rural epidemic prevention and control is a top priority.
As early as December 7, the National Health Commission issued a notice on the new coronary pneumonia as a carrier to do a good job of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment of the work program, put forward in accordance with the "health monitoring, classification and management, up and down the linkage, the effective treatment" principle, the scientific coordination of regional medical resources, to the grid layout of the medical association as a carrier to improve the sub-site hospitals, fixed-point hospitals, and the work of the hospitals. Improve the referral mechanism between sub-determined hospitals, designated hospitals, medical associations and tertiary general hospitals collaborating outside the medical associations.
After that, on December 16, the National Health Commission reissued the Notice on Strengthening the Prevention and Control of the New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic in Rural Areas and the Work Program of Health Services, which guides rural areas to do a good job of preventing and controlling the new Crown Pneumonia epidemic and health and health services during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival of 2023, according to the notice. The notice also calls for the protection of manpower in rural health care institutions, coordinating the deployment of medical personnel within the county, combining the population served by township health centers and the volume of services, and increasing the strength of medical personnel in township health centers, which can be rapidly expanded through the stationing of physicians in higher-level hospitals, the recruitment of retired medical personnel within the past five years, and increasing the number of temporary staff.
All over the world are also stepping up their preparations for the peak pressure.
Dong Liang, head of the medical treatment expert group of the Shandong Province's new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak disposal work command, said that in order to solve the medical squeeze phenomenon, some of the square cabin functions have been transformed into sub-scheduled hospitals, which can be used for admitting and treating both ordinary and heavy new coronavirus patients. "Of course, it is likely that all healthcare organizations will have to carry out preparations for admitting and treating patients with new crown pneumonia next." He said medical institutions are already working intensively to prepare for this, and it could be done in about a month's time.
Cangnan County, Zhejiang Province, is also supplementing the transfer of all kinds of medical resources, to make every effort to prepare to withstand the onslaught. on December 14, Cangnan County decided to openly recruit 200 nurses for the whole society, to further guarantee the capacity of fixed-point hospitals and sub-fixed-point hospitals to receive. At present, the number of critical care beds in the county people's hospital has reached more than 8% of the total number of beds. The number of beds in fixed-point hospitals has increased from 100 to 392, and the number of beds in sub-fixed-point hospitals has increased from 300 to 388. The county has also invested 40 to 50 million dollars to buy the appropriate medical equipment, these facilities and equipment have been purchased in place.
December 18 afternoon, the epidemic prevention and control work in Zhejiang Province, a news conference, the executive deputy director of the Office of the Leading Group of epidemic prevention and control work in Zhejiang Province, Deputy Secretary General of the Zhejiang Provincial Government, Chen Chong, said that in order to scientifically and accurately cope with the upcoming peak, as far as possible to extend the peak, effective peak reduction, smooth transition peak, to achieve the "protection of health, prevention of severe disease
Specifically in the enhancement of medical treatment capacity, Zhejiang Province to establish and improve the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system. In accordance with should be set up as much as possible, should be opened as much as possible, 24-hour clinic requirements, accelerate the expansion of fever clinic, as of December 17, Zhejiang Province, the opening of more than two medical institutions fever clinic 390, set up grass-roots fever clinic 1,272, has covered more than 90% of the townships. Zhejiang province fixed hospitals, sub-fixed hospital beds, ICU beds have exceeded the national standard, to ensure that all should be received and treated. In order to further enhance the treatment capacity, all square-cabin hospitals continue to be retained and upgraded in accordance with the standard of sub-designated hospitals to guarantee the treatment needs of general-type new crown patients. Meanwhile, in order to alleviate the pressure of offline consultation, Hangzhou and other places have gone online and opened Internet hospitals, so that people in need can ask for consultation online, effectively diverting the pressure of fever clinics. In urban communities and villages, the formation of distribution teams, in a timely manner for the elderly, the disabled and other home medical personnel to provide medicines and living materials on behalf of the purchase of services.