Analysis of why you buy a fund as soon as the set
Recently, A shares continued to retrace. Many star funds have also seen a sharp retraction, the year before the entry of the funders from big profits to now be set up in just 3 weeks. In the end, what led to the plummet of the fund, why some funds and funders can successfully avoid the decline? Today, I will share with you why you are trapped as soon as you buy a fund, just for your reference!
First of all, the decline of the A-share market as a whole is the first reason for the rise and fall of the net value of equity funds.
The main reason for the decline of A shares
1, the United States inflation rose, the United States bond yields rose rapidly, triggering financial market shocks and A shares of U.S. stocks retracement. Market concerns about liquidity still exist, high valuation sectors continue to be under pressure.
2, a large number of redemptions by the funders led to the fund selling stocks. Do not take into account macro factors, the public fund new funds to reduce or even encounter a wave of redemptions, superimposed on the style of holding change, is likely to be an important reason for the market plunge.
3, the previous rise is too large, A shares structural overvaluation. But on the other hand, the A-share is only a local imbalance rather than a comprehensive overvaluation, combined with the current macro as well as micro liquidity conditions, the index of the probability of a full-scale bear is low, and currently more style switching, high valuation varieties in the short term is difficult to have a super-expectation performance.
Different types of funds and fund managers' investment strategies
1, the new fund: rush to build a position, high holding group
Part of the new fund net value of the sharp fall, is considered to be related to the rapid building of a position and a high level of investment in the holding group shares.
Data show that, as of March 8, since February, just established active equity new funds, in the build-up period has been a large number of funds plummeted more than 10%, for example: February 19 the establishment of the Huatai Perry quality growth C-17.88%, February 19 the establishment of the Huatai Perry scenery preferred C-17.33%, and so on.
In this regard, Gesellschaft's chief strategist Zhang Ting analyzed, "Many new funds have fallen more recently, mainly because fund managers in the spring mania, build positions faster to get a higher net value faster, this phenomenon can also be seen in some of the fund managers to build a position in the eagerness of the psychology. The new fund to build a position is still dominated by leading stocks, the decline is larger."
In fact, as the new fund has a three-month position-building period, generally speaking, in order to control risk, most of the new fund to take a steady way to build positions. Normally, fund managers tend to consider first thickening the safety cushion during the build-up period, preferring to earn less and not to lose money by venturing into the market. But in the hot period of fund issuance, many new funds have taken a fast way to build positions.
Contrary to these plummeting new funds, some of the new funds have made relatively good returns since their inception. They have achieved better returns since their inception, on the one hand, with the establishment of the point in time, from the point of view of their establishment time, they were established in late 2020, which means that benefited from this year's pre-Spring A-share surge; on the other hand, with the direction of their investment, its investment in Hong Kong stocks and resources stocks have performed relatively well this year.
2, index funds: high position operation
Index funds, tracking an index, the index is a basket of stocks, holdings of the constituent stocks open and transparent, the proportion of individual stocks is also clear, basically every six months to adjust the fund company and the fund manager to do is to maintain and index tracking error within a certain range, in addition to the "enhancement" type. The fund company and the fund manager have to do is to keep the tracking error with the index within a certain range, except for the "enhanced" index fund, basically there will be no active investment operation.
According to the contract, the index fund must maintain a position of more than 90% to ensure that it can track the index well, such as China Merchants CSI Baijiu, if you meet the Baijiu index performance is not good, even if this downward trend is more pronounced, the fund manager still can not significantly reduce the Baijiu position, because although this can avoid losses, but on the contrary, it is a violation of the contract provisions, so the market In the process of decline, the index fund will fall more than actively managed funds.
So, buying an index fund, profit and loss mainly depends on timing. And this timing decision is made by the investor.
Investors in the purchase of index funds, must do a good job of active decision-making this matter, because according to the contract, the fund company and the fund manager can not have too much active operation behavior (such as increasing or decreasing positions).
3, star equity funds: hold on to the group shares
From the net value of the year after the fall, several star fund managers of the fund net value of the larger, and the actual net value and estimated net value is not too much error, it is estimated that in the past few days of the plunge, belongs to the "dead carry type". Such as Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun, Gran and other management funds net value of a certain decline. "Public equity brother" Zhang Kun management of Efonda blue chip selection, 2019 public equity fund champion Liu Ge Siong management of the GF double upgrade have hit a record of historical retraction.
"Sitting in a new energy car cephalosporin on wine", really "said to go". New energy, large consumer and medical three big tracks from hot to investors fear to avoid. Further analysis, these star fund managers tend to focus on their own good at, and in the past two years the momentum of the field, and the heavy stock highly convergent. Jingshun veteran Liu Yanchun, for example, from the fourth quarter of 2020 position, its star product Jingshun Great Wall domestic demand growth mix and Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi mix (LOF) of the top ten positions in nine of the same, and the top ten positions in shares accounted for 68% -69%. As a result, the two funds of the net value of the unit trend is also almost synchronized, the net value of the ox year since the decline of nearly 20%. The top ten positions in stocks, liquor stocks accounted for nearly half of the seats, and these stocks since the ox year fell more than 20%. Once fueled the fund soared to the top of the star fund list of popular sectors, now become the biggest killer of the fund's reputation.
And there are also star fund managers who have seen their net worth rise by rejecting holdout stocks such as liquor. For example, Cao Ming long in last year's fiery market performance prudent to reject the white wine stocks, at the same time, the top ten holdings accounted for no more than 50%, only three stocks holdings more than 5%, risk diversification. Another due to the successful prediction of risk and to avoid holding stocks to kill the fall belongs to the Xingquan veteran Dong Chengfei.
Industry insiders analyze, this round of the fund's decline, mainly because of the fund embracing the collective retracement of stocks due to the previous rise too much, the valuation is too high. However, in recent times, in addition to these hugging stocks, other stocks did not fall much, and even most of the stocks are beginning to rebound. And this year our economy is expected to usher in greater growth, in such an economic context, the overall stock market is likely to rise. But in the fund's group buying, these leading stocks have risen very high, valuation is not cheap, continue to promote them to rise sharply in the difficulty of a lot, want to go up again like last year, the possibility is very small, and may even fall.
Industry insiders suggest that in the case of the "star fund" collective pullback, you can choose to adjust positions, pay more attention to those who focus on digging small and medium-capitalization quality stock funds, there may be more opportunities. Because last year, many small and medium-capitalization stocks have fallen very badly, in the fund holding disintegration, those small and medium-capitalization stocks are expected to usher in the valuation repair.
Fundamentalist's own operational errors
1, the wrong time to enter the field
When the stock market is rising, the situation is very good, the fund's money-making effect is obvious, we are all scrambling to go to buy the fund, and even the square-dancing mothers have joined the ranks of the raising base.
The domestic stock market bull short and bear long, when you are full of confidence into the fund market, just in time to catch the opening of the downward trend of the stock market, seeing their own buy the fund fell 10%, hastily cut meat away from the field, vowed to never buy funds!
As an example: in the past 10 years, the stock market has a wave of bull market, in 2014 2015, the market has 5000 points, many people straight forward, then you do not leek who when it?
Always in the market up to the peak and began to pull back when the hindsight into, thought they are going to start making money, and that the bull came. In other people's money, you are hot others make money, a brain what all regardless of the drill in.
2, frequent operations, constantly buying and selling
Buy funds are not ready to hold long-term, the fund as a stock to fry, like to chase up and down, wave operation, lack of patience and calm mind.
The stock fund, for example, the subscription rate is generally not less than 0.15% if the holding time is less than 7 days, the redemption fee rate is generally 1.5%, the short-term frequent operation, the handling fee to spend a lot of money did not earn.
Some people will think that I gain more than this rate is good, then our time costs, a come and go, you next time to buy?
There are also people who start out with the intention of long-term, doing it becomes short-term, and even chasing the market. 5 days a week, you subscribe one day and confirm the next day, sell one day and confirm the next day, and the week is gone.
3, follow the wind to buy funds
Many newbies see some third-party platform to show how much the fund has risen in the last three months, do not do any analysis to think that this fund is good, and the result is to buy a succession of decline. This is also the reason why you buy the fund recommended by so-and-so platform does not make money.
The other followers of the wind is from neighbors, colleagues, friends to buy funds to make money, you jumped at the chance to buy this fund, an operation as fierce as a tiger, it is easy to buy at the top of the mountain.
Following the wind to buy funds must be popular funds, that must fluctuate greatly, but also easy to buy at the top of the mountain.
So how to buy funds will not be set? In fact, it is very simple, the first thing is to buy cheap, the best in the overall market is more underestimated when going to buy funds in large amounts. Do not wait until the market enthusiasm has risen, the market rose to a very high time, and then chase in to buy funds. Do not go after the popular funds, the kind of a year to earn 1 times, the investment is very concentrated in the fund, fall up is also very scary. Then is to build a position in batches, never full position, to give yourself space. The last thing is to choose a quality fund, either an index fund that is undervalued or a good actively managed fund.
It is true that at this particular point in time, investors must not have a good time in their hearts. 2020, the second half of the year, and even 2021, began to raise the base of friends in the face of the year before the year after the ice and fire, and now they are all mocking "leek zero after".
Investors are aware of the "do not chase the rise and fall" this aphorism carved into the smoke inhaled into the lungs, but really in the buy and sell before focusing on the time nodes of the yield situation, is still a minority. The fund is not to buy the trend, but a buy and sell between the return on investment can be harvested.
Investing in finance is a long-term thing, expect to follow a fund manager can get rich overnight is not very realistic, or to learn to think long term, do not do hindsight.
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