An unexpected new crown virus has changed the original look of this spring. There is no square dance, no mahjong board, can not go out loud K song, more can not go out to "squander" youth, we can only "hold" at home. After more than a month's effort, we can only stay at home. After more than a month of hard work, the "war epidemic" with this "black swan" has finally won in stages. Now, all walks of life have ushered in the tide of the resumption of work, the partners are one after another to return to work.
The auto market is also the same, a few days ago, China Automobile Dealers Association released data showing that the rate of auto dealers back to work continues to rise, as of February 27, the auto dealers after the holiday comprehensive resumption of work efficiency 28.32%. At the retail end of the car market, the market is also showing signs of warming up, data show that retail sales in the third week of February reached a daily average of 5,411 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 83%, and the third week of retail sales growth of 32% compared to the second week. Although the market is not warming up too fast, but this at least means that the auto market gradually out of the "frozen" moment.
The epidemic has yet to dissipate, and many consumers already have the idea of buying a car. So, in the face of this super test, will automakers and car dealers set off a tidal wave of price cuts? Next, let's analyze the analysis.
The car market "unblocked" at the time
As an old reporter in the industry, the ghost is considered to follow the automotive market to grow up together, but in the other day, see the car market in February year-on-year growth rate of 96% decline in bottoming out data, the heart is also shocked. Although, the car market is in this particular moment, but such a precipitous decline or let the ghost quite surprised. Professional organizations predicted that February's year-on-year decline in manufacturers' sales is estimated at about 75%. 1-February so the cumulative sales are estimated to fall in about 40%, compared with the original January-February expected to fall 10 points in the level.
However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, most parts manufacturers and automakers resumed production, and the resumption of dealerships is growing rapidly, the car market has seen a warming trend. Now, many car manufacturers have started new car listing plan, February 24, Geely car unique way, in the country through 5G live form against the market launch of new products - Geely ICON, which is the first choice of the car market during the epidemic launched a new car. February 28, GAC Toyota Weilanda in also through the network officially listed, the next On February 28, GAC-Toyota Veranda was officially launched through the network, and many new cars in the automobile market will also be launched in the market through the network. At this particular moment, automakers are advancing their new car release programs through the technology-connected model, not wanting to miss the best release period.
At the end of the sales, auto 4S stores have also rebounded. Ghost visited a number of 4S stores in the Automotive Economic Development Zone to learn that after the resumption of work tide opened, most 4S stores in the amount of store, the amount of leads have risen significantly, the volume of transactions are also rising. Changchun, a 4S store sales manager told Ghost, now, they are not considered the final resumption of work, but has been submitted to the relevant parts of the resumption of work, the epidemic stabilized, the amount of consumers into the store or a significant increase in ? The amount of leads in the network terminal is almost restored to the previous state, the volume is very fast, the customers who enter the store in the past few days are very accurate, and there is a transaction every day.
A few days ago, the national passenger car market information association secretary-general Cui Dongshu said in an interview with a media reporter, the domestic automobile market has appeared to be rapidly improving trend, is expected at the end of April this year, in addition to the Hubei region, the national automobile market will be stabilized and warmed up.
Dark tide of auto consumption
By the dual impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic, in January, 2020, the auto market did not start red. However, after the epidemic, the auto market will also explode with new spending power.
The other day, the famous Douban Goose group launched two rounds of panel discussions on "this new crown, what are your experiences and feelings?" The panel discussion. In addition to desperately save masks, we all coincidentally "to learn to buy a car" as a necessary anti-epidemic conditions, some goose pointed out the importance of private cars. Yes, in this particular moment, even medical experts have said, private car travel, the safety factor will rise a lot.
On February 26, there is a car after the release of the number of private cars as well as the epidemic to buy a car survey. The results show that about 59% of the netizens do not have a private car at home, while about 80% of the netizens said that they had a plan to buy a car before the epidemic. These two results show that in China's automobile consumer market today, the main car consumers are still aiming at solving their immediate needs.
The results of the survey on the impact of the epidemic on consumers' car-buying plans show that about 53% of netizens will buy a car according to the original plan, and about 14% of netizens will even advance their car-buying plans due to the epidemic. Compared with public **** transportation, choosing to travel by private car can effectively reduce the risk of cross-infection, which was also recognized by about 76% of netizens.
In addition,? The Beijing Municipal Office of Minibus Indicator Regulation and Management announced the results of the audit and allocation of minibus indicator applications for the 1st period of 2020. This period of new energy minibus indicator applications for individuals *** have 467,360 valid codes. While the quota of individual new energy minibus indicators in 2020 is 54,200, the quota of unit new energy indicators is 3,000. Based on this rate of projection, new applicants may need to queue for another nine years. This set of data shows that in some restricted cities, automobile consumption still has great potential, if, after the epidemic, if the relevant departments of the state can then Beijing and some restricted cities, increase the quota of indicators for the purchase of cars, for the automobile consumption will also add a new point of explosion.
At the same time, automobile manufacturers are full of expectations for the market after the epidemic. The person in charge of an independent brand analyzed that the outbreak of the epidemic prompted some consumers to consider buying a private car to travel, which has a positive effect on the car market. It is reported that with the epidemic region is stable, the original consumer power will also further outbreak. Possibly, at the moment, the car market will not be as crazy growth after SARS in 2003, but the car market will also usher in a wave of concentrated sales release afterwards, which can still be foreseen in advance. If the relevant state departments and local governments to launch relevant incentives, automobile consumption may be further "ignited".
It's not easy to say price cuts
On the one hand, there is a clear increase in purchasing demand, on the other hand, there is a full force of automobile brands, so the two in a fierce collision, will trigger a price war in the automobile market?
While price cuts are expected by consumers, the reality may not be so. In February, due to the impact of the epidemic, there are a number of automobile manufacturers and parts of the production of "broken" for more than 20 days, although most automobile manufacturers began to resume work, but senior industry experts said that the automotive industry from the spare parts to the production of a long period of time, some times it takes 20 days to complete the production. A very long cycle, some times need more than 20 days, from the resumption of work to the vehicle production line needs another process. Moreover, now, there are still many parts manufacturers and automakers in Hubei are still in a state of shutdown.
It is understood that, as most car dealers in the Chinese New Year before the purchase of most of the stock in February, most of the models still have cars. But the manufacturer in Wuhan, part of the brand is really affected, some models out of stock, at present, dealers can accept orders, but when can deliver cars, but also depends on the resumption of work in Wuhan. The supply is not enough, the car is not enough to sell, the dealer naturally there is no need to go to a large promotion.
In January, the inventory warning index of auto dealers was 62.7 percent, which has exceeded the warning line. Although, many car dealers have inventory pressure, but the current market situation, the vast majority of dealers do not have the intention of bottoming out. Changchun, a car dealer sales manager told reporters: ", now, inventory pressure is there, but this particular period, the demand has come up, we will have normal promotions, but there is no need to sell cars at a loss, and will not take the bottom of the promotional, under the rigid demand, the price is not the only core element to influence the final purchase."
It is reported that now, most car dealers do not increase the discount on the original basis. On the contrary, some mainstream models have narrowed the range of the original discount, at least, compared with a year ago, there is a gap of 2,000-3,000 yuan. With demand on the rise, coupled with tight supplies, for many dealers, why go so crazy with promotions?
Ghost: From the current situation, the car market with the epidemic stabilized, the resumption of work continues to increase, car sales will gradually "wave still" la. And, may also usher in a wave of sales of small peak. But in terms of car prices, as the car market gradually warmed up, bottoming out, dumping the situation will be less and less, dealers in the return to normal after the track, who is still willing to take so much profit to promote it? In fact, at this moment of freezing point, it may be the best time to buy a car.
This article comes from the author of the automobile home car family number, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.