Editor's note:
If nothing else, the topic of Wanda Commercial's Hong Kong IPO will haunt Wanda in 2021.
There was a segment: "Tencent has no dream, Baidu has no future, and Wanda has no IPO."
No matter how low-key Wanda's executives face, the media, the industry, and even Wanda's fans, are happy to discuss.
Just this past week, Wanda withdrew its application to land on the A-share market and returned to Hong Kong for the second time after seven years. This is a beautiful turnaround.
Cross-references can be made to the market capitalization of Beyoncé Services at more than 200 billion and Shell Market at more than 400 billion.
The capital market's pursuit of asset-light companies, but also the first two years of the Wanda business is constantly being short-sighted to sweep away the past haze.
Behind the media focus on Wanda, not only is the valuation of hundreds of billions of dollars, and not simply the return of China's richest man, this is the best highlight of Wanda Commercial in 15 years.
Among China's unlisted super unicorns, along with the listing of the shell, only this star is the most radiant. Its future growth space is becoming more and more imaginative.
A product manager wrote in his journal:
The key to getting girls is different.
Tencent's key to picking up girls is the girl, only focusing on competitors, ignoring the user experience;
Ali's key to picking up girls is to pick up girls, specializing in business, focusing on the experience and marketing;
Wanda's key to picking up girls is to pay attention to competitors as well as the user experience, and the result is that picking up girls becomes a husband.
The three companies are completely different species, completely different logic play. However, Wanda business is a bit sad.
On September 20, 2016, Wanda Commercial Hong Kong stock delisting, Wang Jianlin kept a long time invisible. This helmsman of the Wanda empire, what is thinking, and what actions, in addition to media speculation, few official reports.
No matter how small Wanda is, there is nothing small about it. Especially in the media spotlight, amplified localized fragments, triggering the public to follow the drama. There are probably only two questions to wonder:
For Wang Jianlin, the long-absent godfather of the empire, has he been crushed by setbacks?
Is the change in Wanda an adjustment or a shake-up?
Is it a product of the crisis, or an inevitable action of corporate development?
Especially the shocking sale in 2017, is it to zero in on its past, or is it a need for iteration? Is it a strong man to break his wrists? Or is it a desire to practise the power of the gods and wield the sword? Or is there a better solution?
Almost everyone is speculating about Wang Jianlin's strategic house, and what a big game he's playing.
To be as stable as Mount Taishan, not only do you have to stick to the golden waterways of your own empire's business, but you're also focusing on your weaknesses.
This also means that Wang Jianlin to Wanda business has been established in all the business model of each link, a complete transformation. Otherwise, Wanda business can not be stable as a mountain.
The editor's note has been written long enough, we hand the stage over to Ouyang Guihua, the lead author of the Wanfang study.
One
Wanda Commercial returned to the Hong Kong stock market, once again returned to the spotlight, how to evaluate this company, become a new challenge and subject.
An official publicly disclosed data is:
As of September 30, 2020, Wanda Commercial operated a total GFA of 54.073 million m?in aggregate.
Of which, the total GFA of properties held was 40.902 million m?;
In addition, the total GFA exported and managed by the company was 13.171 million m?, of which 2.292 million m? of light-asset projects were operated, 7.665 million m? of cooperative projects were operated, and 3.214 million m? of hotels were exported and managed.
This set of data may be too abstract, its additional label is:
This is a global scale leading commercial management enterprise, is the world's No. 1 commercial property owner (ranked by the leasable area of the commercial properties held and managed)
According to this set of data, the simplest and most brutal valuation methodology: after the listing. Whether Wanda Commercial can reach a market value of 100 billion, the valuation logic refers to the Beyoncé service, as well as the shell.
In fact, as early as 7 years ago, Wanda commercial listing market has exceeded 200 billion (issue price of 48 Hong Kong dollars per share, over-allotment of 0.53 billion shares, the allotment price is also the same 48 Hong Kong dollars per share, the total share capital of about 45,273,476,000 shares) .
On September 20, 2016, China's commercial real estate unicorn Hong Kong stock curtain call, the offer price is HKD 52.8 per H share in cash.
At that time, there were 3 reasons for the official written reply given:
(1) Investors in the Hong Kong market lacked understanding of the business of comprehensive consumer platforms in mainland China that drive the growth of domestic demand, and did not have a high level of cognition of the brand value of the issuer in mainland China, which resulted in the overall value of the issuer after the listing of the H-shares being underestimated;
(2) The maintenance cost of the listed company of H-shares is high;
(3) The H-share listing could not realize the listing and circulation of domestic shares, and the issuer decided to delist from the H-share market.
The third point is the key to delisting. The shareholding structure of Wanda Commercial is very special, and the shareholders are divided into domestic shareholders and H shareholders, with the former holding 85.59% of the shares and the latter holding 14.41% of the shares.
In the era when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was just starting out, the special setup of the shareholding structure did not attract special attention from the issuing parties. However, this also laid the groundwork for the later delisting and return to A-shares.
There is a bigger reason, when looking through the Wanda commercial financial reports, Gui Hua found the end.
Just after the Spring Festival, the first extraordinary shareholders' meeting of Wanda Commercial in 2018, to make a decision that at the time the outside world seems very insignificant, the company name from "Dalian Wanda Commercial Real Estate Co." changed to "Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co Ltd" .
The word "real estate", accompanied by Wanda commercial partners for many years is gone, replaced by "management group".
Is this the future of Wanda business? If so, what is the valuation of today's Wanda business?
II
At the 2018 annual meeting, Wang Jianlin said that the Wanda brand works very well.
At the annual meeting, some executives still can't fully understand the meaning of the old king's words, but in the eyes of investors, Wanda business is accelerating the speed of disembarkation.
An objective fact is that if you add up the GTV of Wanda Commercial, it could be equivalent to the economic volume of a developed Chinese province, or a country in the European Union.
This is success and opportunity for a company, but it also carries risks.
Behind the different interpretations is a divergence of views: if it follows inertia, Wanda, the behemoth of commercial expansion, will have gotten used to being in gluttony mode, and the worst part is that it doesn't know it.
Reacting to the balance sheet, Wanda Plaza is the city center, the city center is not listed, not listed will be indigestion.
Or jokingly, Wanda commercial bubble girl bubble into the husband, which is the price it can not afford in the process of growth.
In fact, as early as 2016, Wang Jianlin gave the definition of Wanda business: Wanda wants to take the road of light assets, light assets are divided into two categories, one is called the investment class, one is called the cooperation class.
Light assets are the favorite of the investment circle and the star on the wind. The valuation space of light assets is great, but it is also extremely difficult craft work.
As an analogy, Wanda business was originally a hammer, the depth of the market, but also shocked their own hand pain. Now it wants to become a nail, firmly embedded in the market. This will require it to nail cap is big enough, nail tip is sharp.
This may also be the basic law of Wanda Commercial's asset lightness, a need to manage the emotional curve of its own balance sheet.
It is said that this is a public conversation:
Q: Why does Wanda not invest a penny to share 30% of the rent?
A: The brand name is loud.
Q: Just by the brand name?
A: Definitely not.
Q: Then what?
A: others share 70%, greater than 100% of his own work. Wanda Plaza asset-light standard templates, engineering management software development success and implementation, making the Wanda Plaza investment return to an average of two digits, twice the industry average.
The skeptics understand: Wanda 30% rent, there are so many enterprises door to door cooperation, there are real benefits.
Behind the light assets, is a revolutionary change in the entire business supply chain synergy mechanism, involving the origin of the enterprise. Wang Jianlin has shown a scalpel to the precision instrument that is Wanda Business.
During the two years of 2016-2017, Wang Jianlin dumped five asset packages in one breath, each packaged with five Wanda plazas, *** counting 25 Wanda plazas.
The counterparties are CITIC Trust, Minsheng Trust and Pearl River Life, all of which are institutional investors with big money and thick waist.
Wang Jianlin only earns money for his services, and the institutional investors pay out to build Wanda Plaza.
This is a small step for Wang Jianlin, but a big step for China's commercial real estate industry. Institutional investors are willing to shell out sky-high amounts of money, real money to enter, accept Wang Jianlin's asset-light model.
This highly symbolic deal is a metaphor for the ice-breaking journey of asset securitization in China, from the bottom up, from the private sector exploration up to the practical stage.
After that, during 2017-2018, Wang Jianlin sold 13 cultural tourism projects and 76 hotels to Sunac and Fortune respectively. This is the media disclosure of Wang Jianlin shock sale.
Little known is that during this period Wang also sold a hotel management company in Guangzhou.
The external is a shocking sale, and the internal is a shocking divestment.In the year of 2018, Wanda Commercial transferred 14 companies to Wanda Real Estate; and in 2019, it continued to transfer 22 subsidiaries, completing the divestment of the real estate business within the country.
This is in the financial performance, in 2018, Wanda commercial inventory size reduction is immediately visible, down 51.01%.
On the other side of the battlefield, in 2019, Wanda opened 43 new Wanda plazas, 29 are "asset-light" projects, and in 2020 opened 45 Wanda plazas, 32 are "asset-light" projects.
In the media do not look favorably on Wang Jianlin's "sell mode" behind, Wanda commercial light assets road, light boat has crossed the mountain.
Three
Commercial management is a trillion-dollar market, and the scale of Wanda's commercial management is far from reaching the ceiling, and is only just beginning.
From this point of view, Wanda commercial also has imperfect pain points, even many. This is the point of view of Wanda Commercial to continue to challenge and stimulate the market.
This also once made Wanda commercial and Jingdong, Suning Eshop and other online and offline partnership, become very delicate. Once the media kindly reminded Wang Jianlin, Liu Qiangdong had to defend .
Changes are opponents and friends. Jingdong is a mirror presence, reminding Wang Jianlin to be especially wary of the path dependence of successful large companies.
And in Wang's strategy house, changes in permutations within the company are the norm. Different arms can't fight each other; when to work together and when to fight separately depends on what the strategic objectives require.
As of September 30, 2020, the original 170 real estate companies, has cleaned up 164 of them. Similar industry correlation is not high Wanda automobile, marine life, culture and tourism, etc., also transferred to the consulting services company.
And in the joint venture company C Sheng technology control level, although Wanda shareholding ratio of 51%, Wang Jianlin did not insist on controlling, the company only sent three directors, not on the operational control.
This is also the evolution of Wang Jianlin's corporate species: what you want, what you want to be, what you want to do.
Wanda Commercial's profitability is an ability, but to be a money-making machine is its greatest misunderstanding.
Its essence is: business efficiency comes first; and only with the efficiency of a perpetual motion machine can you maintain eternal money-making ability.
The measure of Wanda's commercial success is not how high the valuation is after listing, but whether it can improve the efficiency of the industrial chain of China's business through operation, so as to make the user's experience better, the city better, and the life better.
In the final analysis, it is still the same sentence: Wanda Plaza is the city center, Wanda Plaza is the good life.
Quote "Forrest Gump" movie in the classic line:
How many times must a man look up before he can see the sky?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind.
How many times must a man look up before he can see the sky?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind. Wanfang Research
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