Trend 1: the internet penetration rate in China will be over half, and the number of internet users in China will be the highest in the world.
By June of 20 14, the number of netizens in China had reached 632 million, and the Internet penetration rate was 46.9%, which was 1. 1 percentage point higher than the end of 20 13. In the first half of 20 14, with the replacement of feature phones by smart phones basically completed, smart phone users have formed a huge scale, the market share tends to be saturated, the growth rate slows down, and the pulling effect of smart phones on the growth of internet users' penetration rate weakens. It is estimated that by the end of 20 15, the internet penetration rate in China will be close to 50%. In 20 13, the number of internet users in the world was 2.6 billion, which was 9% higher than that in 20 12. Nevertheless, the number of Internet users in China still ranks first in the world. In 20 13, the number of netizens in China was 2.9 times that in the second place, but the penetration rate of netizens in China was 46% and that in the United States was 83%. From the perspective of penetration rate, the number of netizens in China still has a lot of room for development.
Trend 2: The Internet migrates to the mobile terminal, and the mobile Internet wins the world.
The usage of global mobile Internet keeps increasing, accounting for 25% of the whole Internet (as of May 20 14). Last year, this figure was only 14%, and the proportion of use doubled in one year. The penetration rate of mobile Internet users in Asia has also increased from 23% last year to 37%, which is very fast. By June of 20 14, the number of mobile phone users in China had reached 527 million, an increase of 26.99 million compared with the end of 20 13. The penetration rate of mobile Internet users in China (the proportion of Internet users in China population) reached 396.5438+0%, that is, nearly 40% of China people are using mobile phones to surf the Internet. At the same time, the proportion of netizens using mobile phones has further increased, from 865,438+0.0% in February, 2065,438+03 to 83.4% in June, 2065,438+04, and the scale of mobile phone users exceeded that of traditional PC users for the first time.
Internet products and services should also follow the netizens. 20 12 and 20 13, the mobile traffic of many large internet companies has exceeded the PC traffic, and many PC business users of large internet companies have migrated to the mobile side, showing a trend of slow growth of PC business and rapid growth of mobile business. If an Internet company does not have a fist product on the mobile side, it will soon be subverted by the wave of mobile Internet. In the next two or three years, the mobile Internet will win the world.
Trend 3: The global traditional media is seriously declining, and it has become an irreversible trend that China's online advertising revenue exceeds TV advertising.
In the mainstream media in China, the market share of TV advertisements and newspaper advertisements has dropped significantly since 2009. 20 1 1 online advertising revenue exceeds newspapers, 20 13 online advertising revenue exceeds TV advertising, and online media has become the largest media in advertising revenue. In 20 14 years, the online advertising revenue exceeded that of newspapers.
In the United States, although the market share of Internet advertising has not surpassed that of television, the gap is gradually narrowing. In particular, the media consumption time of the Internet has significantly exceeded that of television, which will promote the further prosperity of the Internet advertising market in the United States, while the paper media and broadcasting in the American market are seriously shrinking in both media consumption time and advertising market share.
Trend 4: Online advertising will be the world of effect advertising, and big data precision advertising will become an important driving force for online advertising.
In 20 13, the market share of effect advertising with CPC and CPA as charging methods will reach 66.6%, and it will exceed 70% in 20 14. In the online advertising market of China, where effect advertising is the mainstream, precision advertising technology will become an important driving force of the online advertising market. We have seen that the new forces of precision advertising based on big data, such as 360 company's eye-catching system and Tencent's Guangdiantong, are rising rapidly, and their market position is comparable to that of traditional portals. Games and e-commerce are the main customer groups of these precision advertising systems. With the further development of these customer groups and the further efforts of precision advertising system in big data, we have reason to believe that these precision advertising forces driven by big data will become the most important driving force for the transformation and development of online advertising market.
Trend 5: The Internet consumer finance market is on the rise, and large-scale platform-based Internet companies will drive the rapid development of the market.
Trend 6: The Internet is vigorously infiltrating into the health field and setting off a wave of Internet health.
More and more users use the Internet to find health-related solutions, which has driven the rapid development of the mobile Internet health market. In the last three years, both global high-tech companies such as Apple, Google and Microsoft and domestic Internet giants such as BAT have been eyeing the mobile health market. From mobile registration to daily health management services, from health monitoring to chronic disease prevention and management, the Internet health wave is on the rise.
The future development of the Internet health market is mainly driven by three forces:
(1) National policies are favorable.
20 14 In May, the State Food and Drug Administration of the United States issued the Supervision and Administration Measures of the US Food and Drug Administration on the Internet (Draft for Comment), intending to liberalize the online sales of prescription drugs and allow third-party logistics to distribute drugs.
The "Twelfth Five-Year" development plan of the pharmaceutical industry points out that the concentration of the pharmaceutical industry is low at present, and the problem of many, small and scattered enterprises is prominent, resulting in excessive competition, waste of resources and environmental pollution. It sets the industrial concentration target of 20 15 as 100, and the sales revenue of top enterprises accounts for more than 50% of the whole industry.
(2) Driven by technology-related factors
The development of mobile Internet and big data will gradually make it possible to change the existing medical and health service model, such as remote appointment, telemedicine, chronic disease monitoring and big data management.
The development of sensors. Traditional wearable sensors such as wristbands, heart rate belts, pedometers, motion sensors and smart clothes sensors have developed rapidly. Instead of developing an implantable electrochemical sensor, it uses the sensor to detect body fluids such as tears, saliva, sweat and skin tissue fluid, filling the gap of real-time monitoring of diseases and curative effects in vivo.
(3) Changes in social environment and natural environment
Aging. In 2050, the population aged 60 and above will increase to nearly 440 million, accounting for 34% of the total population of China, and enter a stage of deep aging. The increasing aging trend in China has become the basis of medical growth;
Pollution. Climate change and pollution aggravate human health risks and provide space for the growth of health industry. Relevant data show that about 2 million people die from air pollution every year in the world. The consequences of water resources and air pollution will become more and more obvious in the next 10 year. On the one hand, pollution will make people pay more attention to disease prevention and increase medical and health expenditure; On the other hand, people's investment in the treatment of diseases caused by pollution will also increase.
(4) Large Internet and IT enterprises attach importance to and actively participate in the promotion.
Alibaba's layout covers almost all aspects of the medical industry, from hospitals to pharmacies, from registration to payment. Alibaba invested in pharmaceutical e-commerce CITIC 2 1 Century Technology Co., Ltd. 10 months later, the latter was officially renamed as "Ali Health"; Alipay announced the "Future Hospital" plan and announced the opening of platform capabilities to medical institutions; Ali launched the drug electronic platform, and the "Ali Health" client took the lead in the hospital electronic prescription link in Shijiazhuang. Through the "electronic prescription" pilot, prescription drugs were purchased outside the hospital. In the domestic drug terminal sales revenue, prescription drugs account for 80%, and the market potential is huge.
Tencent made a strategic investment of $70 million in Lilac Garden, a medical and health Internet company; Tencent's leading registered network exceeds $654.38 billion; The health center has been launched in the latest version of mobile QQ, hoping to integrate the software and hardware manufacturers in the industrial chain based on the social user data of hand Q; Create a micro-medical platform, connect with WeChat and QQ, let hospital doctors access, and provide convenient medical services for registered network, WeChat and QQ users.
Baidu cooperates with Beijing Municipal Government to build a health cloud platform, integrates upstream intelligent medical equipment vendors and downstream telemedicine service providers, and provides personalized health services based on intelligent hardware devices.
Xiaomi invested $25 million in strategic investment iHealth, a subsidiary of Jiu 'an Medical; Apple has released a brand-new health application. The mobile application platform, named "Healthkit", can integrate data collected by other health applications on iPhone or iPad, such as blood pressure and weight. Samsung also launched the health tracking platform SAMI；; Google launched GoogleFit；; Microsoft launched MicrosoftHealth and fitness cloud service platform.
Trend 7: The turning point of online education is coming, and the market will grow rapidly in the future.
According to the data of China Economic Net, the total investment in online education in China in the first half of 20 14 was as high as 2.5 billion yuan, compared with 2.4 billion yuan abroad. At the same time, the investment in August was not less than 10 billion yuan, and it is estimated that the investment in online education in China will reach 5-8 billion yuan in 20 14, making it a global online education.
According to the data of iResearch, the online education market will reach 99.8 billion in 20 14 years, with a growth rate of 19%, and the market is still growing at a relatively fast speed. 20 15, the turning point of market growth is coming soon. In the next three years, 20 15, 20 16 and 20 17 will continue to grow rapidly, with a growth rate of about 20%. Academic education and vocational online education are the main driving forces for the rapid growth of market scale. However, it is worth noting that the online education market in primary and secondary schools will grow faster than the whole online education market. In 20 14, the growth rate of online education market in primary and secondary schools was 34%, and the growth rates in the next three years were 35%, 39% and 39% respectively, showing a rapid growth trend.
The current changes in the field of education mainly come from the mobile Internet and big data. Most of the original Internet education relies on the PC, and the Internet era has completely entered the era of mobile Internet. With tablet computers and smart phones, online education has changed from relatively concentrated learning to fragmented learning, which requires the transformation of online education product forms; The development of big data also makes online education more intelligent and scientific. For example, we can establish an error question bank, optimize the focus of teachers' lectures through big data, or assist students to answer questions through big data, scientifically evaluate academic performance, and optimize learning priorities, such as ape question bank, learning treasure, and excellent answer.
Trend 8: The online travel market is more competitive, and the market is brewing changes.
In 20 14, the transaction scale of online travel booking market in China will reach 287.2 billion. Affected by the continuous large-scale price war in the industry, the revenue growth rate of online travel OTA market in 20 13 and 20 14 years was lower than that of the overall online travel market.
Looking forward to 20 15, the following trends will continue:
(1) price war, enterprises increase their income without increasing their profits. The third-quarter financial reports of four China OTA companies listed in the United States show that the net profit of the companies is still declining at an accelerated pace, but the price war among all parties is intensifying. Ctrip's net operating income in the third quarter was 2 1 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year, but its net profit was 210.7 billion yuan, down 42% year-on-year. This is Ctrip's negative net profit growth for three consecutive quarters; The total revenue of Qunar Company in the third quarter of 20 14 was 50 1 1 billion yuan, up107.8% year-on-year; However, the net loss attributable to shareholders expanded to 566.2 million yuan. However, in February of 20 14, Ctrip announced that it would spend 10 billion yuan for large-scale promotion. Tongcheng and Tuniu also openly challenge each other.
(2) The online air ticket market is more concentrated. The price war in the online air ticket booking market continues, the pressure on small and medium-sized online agents increases gradually, the profit rate decreases, and the OTA distribution structure will gradually concentrate.
(3) The status of direct selling online hotels continues to improve. As the price war continues, direct selling hotel websites will continue to rise. At present, Qunar, Ctrip and E Long are the first camp in terms of the user scale of online hotel reservation websites, and the direct selling website 7-day hotel also entered and stabilized in the first camp on 20 13; It is estimated that 1-2 direct selling hotel users will enter the first camp in 20 15 years.
(4) The online holiday market is growing faster than the overall online travel market. In 20 14, the growth rate of online holiday market transaction scale reached 42%, much higher than that of online travel market (27.5%), and it will continue to maintain rapid growth in 20 15, with the growth rate exceeding 35%. This is mainly due to the increase in demand for holiday and leisure tourism, which has led to the growth of car rental, holiday apartments and other businesses.
(5) Online air tickets are more valued by online travel companies, and the competition is more intense. 20 14 is the first year of online ticketing development, and 20 15 has entered the stage of fierce competition. As the entrance of leisure tourism, the ticket market is easier to cross-sell holiday products, and seizing the ticket market is helpful to the development of the holiday market.
(7) The migration and competition of mobile terminals are more intense. The traffic of many large online booking companies has exceeded that of PC, and the price war and service war of online travel have shifted from PC to mobile. 20 15, the competition of mobile is more intense, and online travel enterprises will continue to increase the promotion and cashback of mobile.
Trend 9: O2O in the real estate sector is a closed loop, accelerating transformation and welcoming development.
20 14 The real estate market in China has entered a period of adjustment, and the inventory of commercial housing in various places is high. Changes in market expectations have further affected the overall pace of new construction, and the growth rate of real estate investment has dropped significantly. The wait-and-see mood of the market is remarkable, and the pace of investment promotion of development enterprises has been adjusted. Since 20 14, the overall market turnover has declined, and the market turnover has dropped significantly compared with last year. According to the data of China Index Academy, the average monthly turnover of 50 representative cities of 20 14,110 was 22.73 million square meters, down 13.6% year-on-year, which was basically the same as that of 20 12, higher than 20 respectively. The influence of the real estate industry has been transmitted to real estate websites, which has led to a slowdown in the income growth of real estate websites. Take the listed company SouFun.com as an example. In 20 14, its revenue is expected to be 730 million dollars, and the annual revenue growth rate is 15%, which is significantly lower than 48% in 20 13. In this context, real estate websites are actively changing, doing closed-loop sales and accelerating transformation.
In the coming year, the real estate sector should pay attention to real estate O2O, home O2O, community O2O and real estate-related Internet finance.
(1) Real estate O2O. Real estate websites actively seek closed-loop sales, which not only helps online promotion, but also implements offline sales links to achieve large-scale transactions. SouFun, Leju, Anjuke and 365 Real Estate Network have all achieved real estate O2O to varying degrees.
(2) Home O2O. There are mainly several modes: real estate website, home website to open offline store experience, online sales mode; Traditional home shopping malls build their own e-commerce platform model; Traditional home shopping mall alliance, online group buying mode of self-built alliance website; The sales model of traditional home furnishing enterprises on e-commerce platform.
(3) Community O2O. Community shopping and services, such as fruits and vegetables, real estate and housekeeping services, all belong to the service scope of community O2O. Real estate developers represented by Vanke and Fantasia, e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, real estate websites such as SouFun.com and 365 Real Estate.com, and financial institutions such as Minsheng Bank and Industrial Bank have all entered this field to varying degrees.
(4) Internet finance. In order to make a better closed loop, many large real estate websites have entered the field of internet finance, mainly aiming at the loan problem in the process of users' purchase and decoration. In 20 14, we saw a series of big moves of real estate websites in Internet finance: SouFun established an Internet financial information service company, introduced a multi-party strategic cooperation model, and laid out an Internet financial system. Sina and E-House China jointly established Fangjinsuo Financial Services Co., Ltd. and launched the Internet real estate financial service platform "Fangjinsuo". 365 real estate network plans to set up financial information service co., ltd.
Trend 10: Social platforms will accelerate ecological integration and build a social-based one-stop service platform for communication, entertainment, life, shopping and learning.
Among these three types of social applications, instant messaging has the highest coverage, followed by social networking sites, and finally Weibo. Instant messaging (IM) has reached 89% of the total number of Internet users. What deserves our attention is that Tencent is almost ahead of these three mainstream social application markets. In the field of instant messaging, the netizen penetration rate of Tencent's QQ and WeChat is 78% and 65% respectively, the netizen penetration rate of QQ space is also 57%, and Tencent Weibo is 27%, which is only lower than Sina Weibo 1%. The most noteworthy thing is WeChat, which has achieved 65% penetration rate of netizens in just four years, and its development speed is extremely fast.
In the coming year, social platforms will accelerate the integration of social-related ecology and build an online one-stop service platform for social communication, entertainment, life, shopping and learning.
(2) In terms of entertainment, social platforms such as Tencent, Sina and Renren. Actively provide users with PC games and mobile games services, and conduct good game commercialization in the social user market. In 20 14 years, these social platforms have made good progress in mobile games, and it is expected that more attention will be paid to the mobile game direction of social users in the next two years.
(3) In terms of life, at the beginning of 20 14, Tencent invested in public comments, accounting for 20% of the shares, and quickly seized the O2O entrance of life; Previously, Tencent invested in a taxi. In the coming year, social platforms will continue to accelerate the pace of integration into life and rapidly expand the market through investment or acquisition.
(4) In terms of shopping, in the beginning of 20 14, Tencent invested 2140,000 US dollars in JD.COM15% shares, and the cooperation is conducive to the rapid development of the two companies in the field of e-commerce; In 20 13, Alibaba acquired 0/8% shares of Sina Weibo/kloc-0 for $586 million. At the same time, they launched a comprehensive strategic cooperation. In the future, Ali also has the right to increase the shareholding ratio of Sina Weibo to 30% according to the pre-agreed pricing method. In the coming year, social platforms will continue to increase cooperation in the field of e-commerce, especially to promote the integration of social and mobile e-commerce.
(5) In learning, social platforms will give full play to their advantages in natural communication skills and user resources, and make efforts in online education. Taking Tencent as an example, "Tencent Classroom" makes great efforts in online education from two aspects: on the one hand, it uses QQ group for online classroom live education, on the other hand, it uses excellent courses as a resource platform for recording and broadcasting education. At the same time, Tencent and New Oriental announced the establishment of a joint venture company "Micro-learning Tomorrow" in July 20 14 to enter the mobile learning market. 20 14 February, YY also officially announced its entry into online education, and spun off its independent brand 100 education. It is predicted that in 20 15 years, social platforms will pay more attention to the development and investment of the education market, and the competition will become increasingly fierce.