If you can't or have an average level, Shu Chanjun suggests that you can practice during the New Year, because there may be secrets hidden in playing cards to help us make better life decisions.
The book I share with you today comes from a poker master: betting.
This is a book that can help you reconstruct your thinking system and make wise decisions in the absence of information.
Anne Duke, the author, is a legendary female poker player in Texas Hold 'em, and the only female player who has won both the World Poker Series Championship and the NBC One-on-One Poker Championship.
When she retired in 20 12, she had won a gold bracelet and more than 4 million dollars in prize money in the World Poker Series.
Professional poker players are professional decision makers. When there is insufficient information, poker players need to make 20 decisions in two minutes, which is essentially like one decision experiment after another.
Anne integrated the idea of playing poker into her daily life.
She believes that life should be like playing cards, designing a set of "playing methods" or "systems" of its own, and unswervingly implementing them in order to be invincible.
1. "Run if you earn a little" or "Cut the meat if you lose a little"
There has always been a saying in China that winners lose losers, and many people believe it.
But in Anne's view, to achieve long-term success, a decision-making system must be established.
The process is more important than the result.
If you only look at the results and correct your own system according to the results, it means that there is no system and it will fail after a long time.
Shu Chanjun agrees with the author.
Coincidentally, Shu Chanjun knows a person who entered the currency circle in the first half of 20 17. Let's call him Lao Wang. His experience perfectly interprets Anne's thoughts.
As we all know, 20 17 is the tail of the bull market in the currency circle. Since then, the prices of various currencies have plummeted, even falling to zero.
Lao Wang 20 17 entered the arena in the first half of the year. Under the guidance of his friends, he bought a bunch of various coins.
Friends also specifically told him: buy it and put it there, and then sell it after half a year. Don't worry about it or look at it, because the account doesn't exist.
If Lao Wang listens to these suggestions, he can wait and see with money by the end of 20 17, and the income can be more than ten times.
But after buying coins, Lao Wang began to fidget, and he had to open an account ten times and eight times a day.
The problem is that both bitcoin and air currency are rising and falling rapidly.
As a result, old Wang Can can't eat well and sleep well all day. He often wakes up in the middle of the night and gets up to stare at the plate.
If the book floats, he can still fall asleep; If the book loses money, he will lose sleep completely and have to stare at the plate until the book becomes floating.
Although he also knows that it is useless to stare at the market, the market rules will not be transferred by his own will. But at that time, his friend's advice was gradually forgotten by him.
In this way, after two months, Lao Wang really couldn't stand it, and everything was even.
This is a typical case without its own decision-making system, and the action is completely dominated by the results.
Gambling also takes Berkshire Hathaway, a subsidiary of Warren Buffett, as an example.
The chart below shows the trend of Hathaway's share price from 1964 to 20 16. It can be seen that in the past 50 years, the company's stock portfolio has been rising steadily.
But if we draw closer, we will find that the trend of the company's stock price is not always stable and positive.
The following figure shows the stock price fluctuation of 20 17 1 one day in late October. It can be seen that the stock price jumped up and down in one day, and the future trend could not be completely predicted.
The chart below shows the trend of Hathaway's stock portfolio from September 2008 to March 2009. You will find that its trend is completely opposite to the 50-year trend chart, and it has been going down.
The conclusion is that Buffett has always adhered to the concept of value investment and will not adjust his strategy because of temporary floating profits or losses.
It turns out that his choice is extremely correct: in the past 50 years, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio has far outperformed the broader market.
In the face of instantaneous rise or fall, our emotional response will be amplified, and decision-making will become focused on eliminating negative emotions, instead of realizing long-term gains, "running if you earn a little" or "cutting the meat if you lose a little".
But that doesn't mean we don't have to adjust our behavior patterns at all.
Imagine what Buffett would do now if he insisted on shorting the US stock market for 50 years and never wavered.
Not only will he not become a stock god, but he may also wander and beg in the streets of new york.
If you don't have your own decision-making system, this person is useless.
In life, Shu Chanjun found that people who really get along well in society are always modest.
This modesty is true, but its essence is a sense of awe at the chaotic system of the world.
They know that nothing is certain, everything has a probability, not 100% either/or.
But many people are unwilling to accept the fact that our world is impermanent and unpredictable.
The psychological reason behind this is simple: admitting that the world is impermanent will make us feel insecure.
Therefore, people tend to construct a set of linear thinking mode for themselves.
For example, as long as you eat on time at 7 am, you won't get stomach cancer; As long as you recite 100 words every day, you can learn English well. As long as you do A, you will get B, and so on.
This mode of thinking is particularly typical in people born in the fifties and sixties.
At that time, everyone was generally poor. As long as the rural people are admitted to the university, they can carp in yue longmen, get a city hukou, and even be an official in a temple.
Stimulated by so many successful experiences around them, they have also formed an unshakable belief in their minds: as long as they study hard and get high marks, they can change their destiny.
This belief has also spawned many "golden sentences". For example, if you are good at mathematics and physics, you are not afraid to travel all over the world.
Paradoxically, many people who often say this sentence don't even understand the basic subject application.
Facts have proved that the market is changing too fast, which is already beyond the scope of linear formula.
Of course, Shu Chanjun is not advocating the futility of reading. What Shu Zhanjun opposes is the linear thinking of "reading-getting high marks-working-changing fate".
Because the reality is very complicated, any of the above four links may suddenly break.
The correct way of thinking should be to constantly absorb a lot of information and turn the equation 1+ 1=2 into a linear regression equation that relies on statistical summary.
For example, in the choice of positions and majors, in addition to getting high marks in exams, we should also consider the following points.
These problems have not been considered by most people.
Even if they did, they didn't think deeply, because they used to think that as long as they worked hard and suffered hardships, they would definitely get a promotion and a raise and marry a white man.
In this mode of thinking, there is a high probability that you will neither be promoted nor raised, but become a disgruntled person.
[There is a professional evaluation at the end of the article to help you understand your core competitiveness in the workplace. ]
This way of thinking gives a term in Dui Bet, which is called "egoistic bias".
People with "selfish bias" think that if I don't do well, it must be because of uncontrollable, other people's or unexpected reasons; If I succeed in this, it must be because of my high level.
According to statistics, in all traffic accident records, 75% drivers accuse others of making mistakes; If the accident involves at least two cars, then 9 1% of the drivers think that the other side made a mistake; Even if there was only one car in the accident, 37% drivers could find the cause of others.
"Egoistic prejudice" is almost everyone's cognitive deviation, and everyone lives in some stubborn trust in themselves.
This attitude can make you live more comfortably, but it will definitely not help you make progress.
20 17 a program called psychological interview reported such a thing: a female college student named fan, who has graduated for ten years, is still eating at home.
Seeing that her daughter stays at home every day and doesn't work, her parents who are nearly seventy years old are very anxious, but as soon as she talks about it, her daughter is anxious.
There are many reasons why Fan doesn't work: physical condition is not allowed, position and personal development are not integrated, psychological problems, nervous talking to strangers and so on.
She also said that I didn't go out to work because I couldn't get the support of my parents.
Growing up, no matter what she did, her parents denied her. Over time, her personality became more and more depressed. Finally, she came to the conclusion that it was all her family's fault that she longed for old age.
Fan's example is the egoistic deviation caused by the frustration of typical linear thinking.
In the face of setbacks, her first thought is not to absorb more information and adjust her behavior and thinking mode, but to complain and stay in the comfort zone. Over time, this person will be abolished.
Start with good habits.
So, how to establish an effective decision-making system?
Gambling lists some key points to teach you to build your own decision-making system.
First of all, don't deny external information easily.
What a mediocre person often does is to bury his head in the sand and make a gesture of "I don't listen, I don't look" to face everything around him.
If we take a negative attitude towards those who pass on information, we will refuse to listen to anything they offer, and therefore miss many learning opportunities.
On the contrary, if we take a positive attitude towards it, we are likely to accept a bunch of unverified error information, which are two common extremes. Neither is desirable.
The correct mode of thinking is that when a person puts forward opinions contrary to himself, don't rush to deny him. Compared with the truth, face is not important at all.
The correct attitude is to discuss with him. Why does he think so? What is the basis? Is this conclusion based on empiricism or logical reasoning?
If no one can convince anyone, you should be good at using information to judge. Wikipedia, Google Academic and related books are all good sources of information.
Second, learn to think in reverse.
When most people want to achieve a goal, they tend to adopt a forward-looking thinking mode.
For example, on the eve of New Year's Day on 20 19, many people set up a bunch of flags when they saw that the New Year was coming. They should go to bed early and get up early, keep healthy, learn English and run every day.
However, more than 90% people, if they list these flags and stick them in their circle of friends, will fail quietly, and then delete their circle of friends silently.
There is a simple reason. These flag-bearers only know what to do, but they don't know why, and the internal driving force is not enough.
But if you think about it the other way around, the situation is different.
For example, you feel that you are in poor shape and want to make some changes through fitness.
Then you might as well imagine that you already have a strong chin and six-pack abdominal muscles, and you can attract the opposite sex with no effort.
At this time, you can make a comeback: how many twists and turns and challenges have I experienced?
This way of thinking is equivalent to drawing a line graph in the brain, with a starting point and an ending point, and each node has a concrete picture.
As far as predictive thinking is concerned, it is more effective to look back at the end than to look forward from the starting point.
Third, join a group.
Everyone's life and opinions are limited. If you want to join a group, you can get more comprehensive information and correct your prejudice in time.
For example, in the screenwriter circle, the probability of success of the "lone wolf" screenwriter is quite low, mainly because no one can put forward opinions in time.
You know, the scripts are linked one by one. If a scene is crooked, it will have a chain effect.
Moreover, most screenwriters have no life and work experience, and their daily life is monotonous: they write in the house and smoke a cigarette if they can't write. Without new life experience input, it is inevitable to slide further and further on the wrong road.
The significance of writers' seminar is to correct the deviation in time and explore the correct direction and structure.
The same is true for choosing a company.
If the position you are applying for needs some creativity, such as copywriting, planning, journalism, new media operation, etc. Then we must pay attention to two points: we must go to the head company in the industry; Observe the personality of your immediate supervisor.
If your immediate supervisor is an unreasonable person who always wants to find a sense of existence through the approval of his subordinates, then you should think twice. Because he is likely to be an obstacle to your progress.
Similarly, if your boss is really awesome, really the kind of cow that has been verified by the market, congratulations on meeting a good teacher.
?
After reading Gambling, some gamblers may find this book more rational.
This is because the author Anne Duke is a professional poker player.
Poker is essentially a complex variant of game theory, so this book inevitably adds many elements of game theory.
It is not easy to cultivate gambling thinking. Especially in the initial stage, we must start from a prudent process. This gives outsiders the impression that this person is suspicious, indecisive and straightforward.
But adult life is hard to say. Only by overcoming difficulties can we succeed.
In the movie The Matrix, when Neo meets Morpheus, Neo asks Morpheus to tell him what the Matrix is.
Morpheus took out two pills, one blue and one red. "Take the blue pill and our meeting will be over. You will wake up in your own bed. If you choose the red pill, you will know the truth about your mother. "
Neo chose the red pill. So he saw the real world and finally defeated the machine that enslaved human beings.
To cultivate gambling thinking is to get out of the comfort zone and abandon the old linear thinking habits.
This is easier said than done. The older you get, the more so. After all, who wants to admit that he has been following the wrong thinking mode for the first half of his life?
Once we begin to bravely choose to face up to our brains, it is equivalent to unswervingly swallowing that red pill.
At first, it was painful. Even professional experts like Anne Duke claim that it is inevitable to fall into the trap of self-interest deviation.
Only by stepping out of the comfort zone of linear thinking can we move towards long-term happiness.