At present, the economic growth is steady and slow, and it runs in a reasonable growth range.
1. Economic growth slowed down and supply structure was optimized. In the first quarter of 20 14, China's GDP increased by 7.4%, which was 0.3 percentage points slower than the same period of last year and the whole year, and was the lowest growth rate after the first quarter of 2009. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.7% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.8 percentage point and 1 percentage point respectively compared with the same period of last year and the whole year. It also hit a new low since the international financial crisis, but the economic growth rate is still within the expected control target range of around 7.5% per year. Judging from the growth of various industries, the growth rate of surplus industries such as extractive industries, crude steel, cement, glass and non-ferrous metals has slowed down significantly, which is the main factor leading to the slowdown of industrial growth, while high-tech industries such as medicine and equipment manufacturing continue to maintain rapid growth. Agriculture developed steadily, and the tertiary industry increased by 7.8%, which continued the growth momentum since 20 13 and was faster than the secondary industry. Services such as tourism, culture, information and modern logistics developed rapidly. The tertiary industry structure and internal industry structure meet the requirements of economic transformation and tend to be optimized.
2. Consumption and exports were basically stable, and investment in fixed assets slowed down. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 12% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points slower than the same period last year. After deducting the price factor, the actual growth was 10.9%, which was 0. 1 percentage point faster than the same period of last year. According to foreign trade statistics, in the first quarter, China's exports fell sharply, with a growth rate of 3.4%, down 2 1.8 percentage points year-on-year; Imports 1.6%, down 6.8 percentage points year-on-year; The trade surplus was $654.38+0.67 billion, down 665.438+0% year-on-year. Excluding the influence of a large amount of arbitrage funds flowing into China through trade channels from June 5438 to April last year, China's exports in the first quarter were close to 7%, which was basically consistent with the growth rate of the world economy and international trade. Judging from the Hong Kong trade with more arbitrage capital inflows, the mainland's exports to Hong Kong decreased by 3 1.3% in the first quarter, which directly affected the overall export growth rate by 7.2 percentage points. Only excluding exports to Hong Kong, China's overall exports increased by 3.8%. Investment in fixed assets increased by 17.6%, which was 3.3 and 2 percentage points slower than the same period of last year and the whole year respectively, which was the main factor for the economic slowdown in the first quarter. Among them, the manufacturing growth 15.2% slowed down by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the growth rate has been stable since this year; Infrastructure investment increased by 20.9%, slowing down by 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the growth rate increased month by month this year; Investment in real estate development increased by 16.8%, up by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, but the growth rate dropped month by month.
3. The employment situation is stable. Although the economic growth rate has slowed down, the employment situation is good. In the first quarter, more than 3 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, which was basically the same as that in the same period last year. The number of migrant workers increased by 2.88 million, the number of jobs continued to increase, and the unemployment rate remained at a reasonable level. Residents' income has increased rapidly. In the first quarter, the per capita cash income of rural residents nationwide was 3,224 yuan, a nominal increase of 12.3% year-on-year, and a real increase of 10. 1% after deducting the price factor. The per capita disposable income of urban residents in China was 8 155 yuan, representing a nominal increase of 9.8% year-on-year, and a real increase of 7.2% after deducting the price factor. The survey of urban-rural integration households conducted from the fourth quarter of 20 12 shows that the per capita disposable income of the national residents in the first quarter of 20 14 is 5562 yuan, with a nominal increase of 1 1. 1% year-on-year, and a real increase of 8.6% after deducting the price factor.
The price level is decreasing steadily. In the first quarter, China's consumer price rose by 2.3%, with a year-on-year slowdown of 0. 1 percentage point; The ex-factory price of industrial producers fell by 2%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, which has been falling for 25 consecutive months; The rise of real estate prices slowed down, and the price of commercial housing calculated by housing sales and sales area decreased by 1.5%, compared with the increase of17.7% in the same period last year; The GDP deflator, which comprehensively reflects the overall price level, rose by 0.4%. The overall price level, especially the price of industrial products, shows that the demand of manufacturing industry is still lower than the supply capacity and the potential economic growth capacity is higher than the actual growth. However, considering employment, prices, economic growth and other factors, China's economy is still in a reasonable growth range.
Reasons for the current slowdown in economic growth
The current economic growth rate is slowing down, which is lower than the potential economic growth rate. There are not only reasons for the active adjustment of macro-control policies since the second half of 20 13, but also structural and institutional problems that restrict the effects of macro-control policies and affect social expectations.
First of all, investment faces certain financial restrictions. Since the second half of 20 13, the central bank has strengthened the management of liquidity in the banking system and controlled the moderate growth of money, credit and social financing. In the second half of the year, the scale of social financing was 20 1.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.0 1 trillion yuan compared with the first half of the year. In the first quarter of 20 14, the total amount of social financing was 5.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 570 billion yuan. The growth rate of money supply has also declined. The broad money M2 decreased from 16. 1% at the end of 20 13 to 12. 1 in March of 20 14. The implementation of the proactive fiscal policy is weaker than in previous years. 20 10. 1% fiscal revenue increased by 2. 1 percentage point, fiscal expenditure was basically the same as the budget, only increased by 10.9%, and fiscal expenditure in 20 13 years could achieve the annual budget expenditure target. 1- 1 1 The fiscal expenditure in the month continued to fall below the budget growth target 10%, and the fiscal expenditure in the month of 65438+2 increased by 20.3% year-on-year. From 20 14 to1-February, the national fiscal revenue increased by 1 1. 1%, and the fiscal expenditure increased by 6%, both lower than the budget levels of 8% and 9.5%. Considering the effect of half a year's delay in capital investment on economic growth, the expansion of total financing in the first half of 20 13 and the decrease in the second half of 20 13 are the reasons for the steady economic growth in the second half of 20 13, which is also the main factor for the economic slowdown in the first half of this year.
Second, the financing cost remains high. At present, the financing costs of RMB loans, medium-term notes and real estate trusts are at historical highs. The financing cost of real estate trust in second-and third-tier cities is often above 10%, and various intermediate costs are even as high as 17%. First of all, in recent years, overcapacity state-owned enterprises, local governments and other departments lacking interest rate flexibility and high-profit real estate funds are in great demand. After the government strengthened the regulation of real estate and the CBRC strengthened the management and control of platform loans, the above-mentioned departments raised a large amount of financing through shadow banks such as issuing bonds and banking-trust financial cooperation, which led to the excessive rise of debt and leverage levels of relevant departments, further aggravating structural problems such as "short-term borrowing and long-term investment" of social funds and "crowding out" of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. Secondly, bank wealth management products, e-finance and other deposit-alternative financial products, shadow banking and other market-oriented financing channels have developed rapidly. While promoting the marketization of interest rates, the phenomenon of "financial disintermediation" has intensified, leading to an increase in financing costs of financial institutions. Thirdly, influenced by the constraints of loan-to-deposit ratio and the bank's quarter-end assessment factors, the bank's interest rate is higher at the end of the quarter, at the end of the year and around the Spring Festival, and the money market interest rate often soars. Finally, after China's balance of payments has gradually become balanced and cross-border funds have changed from a large inflow to a two-way flow of "one in and one out", the situation that the excessive growth of foreign exchange accounts in the past has led to a large number of passive deposits of base money has also changed.
Third, the lag of RMB appreciation has affected China's exports. From 20 1 1 to February 201April, the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciated by about 23%, and the lag period of the impact of exchange rate appreciation on exports is generally 1-2 years.
Fourth, the interweaving of multiple factors leads to the rise of financial risks and affects market expectations. In the process of adjusting the real estate market in some cities, resolving overcapacity and controlling environmental pollution, some enterprises went bankrupt, local debts ushered in the peak of debt repayment, and the risk of shadow banking increased. The real estate market, in particular, will not only affect the development of industries with overcapacity, but also affect the security of shadow banking and local debt. Once the capital chain breaks, it will adversely affect the stable operation of finance, cause the decline of related industries, increase the downward pressure on the economy, and the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure will also increase. Recently, there have been many financial defaults in China, such as China Credit Trust and Japanese Debt. At the same time, with the withdrawal of quantitative easing policy in the United States, the short-term outflow of international hot money may lead to the shortage of domestic funds and aggravate the fluctuation of financial markets.
The basic trend of China economy
Factors affecting the current economic slowdown will continue to exist, and China's economy will continue to decline steadily.
1. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets will slow down. How the investment demand is still the key to analyze and judge the current economic trend. China's overcapacity is characterized by a wide range of industries, a high degree of absolute overcapacity and a long duration. Traditional industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, chemicals, shipbuilding and so on are seriously surplus, and some are absolutely surplus. Resolving overcapacity will inevitably affect manufacturing investment. Since the middle of 20 13, the real estate sales area and sales growth rate have dropped month by month, and the price adjustment of commercial housing in third-and fourth-tier cities has increased. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of new real estate starts dropped sharply, the growth rate of land acquisition area also declined, the growth of real estate sales almost stagnated, the wait-and-see mood of buyers and real estate enterprises increased, and real estate investment will continue to slow down. In 20 13, the planned total investment of newly started projects increased by 14.2%, which was significantly lower than that of the previous year by 14.4 percentage points. 20 14 The planned total investment growth rate of newly started projects in the first quarter is still low, only increasing by 12.6%, which means that the follow-up investment will slow down. However, the overall investment will still maintain moderate growth:
First, infrastructure investment, which accounts for a large proportion of investment demand, continues to grow steadily. The state allows platform companies to issue some bonds to replace "high-interest short-term debts", intensify debt restructuring, and propose to extend the repayment period on the premise of complying with national industrial policies and fixed assets investment management regulations; By issuing 654.38+050 billion yuan of railway construction bonds, we will set up a railway construction fund of 200-300 billion yuan to attract private capital and raise funds for railway construction in the central and western regions and poverty-stricken areas; The National Development Bank set up a special agency to issue residential financial bonds to support the transformation of shanty towns.
Second, expanding the scope of the pilot reform of the camp and vigorously developing the pension and health service industries will help the service industry investment to maintain rapid growth.
Third, with the support of policies such as ensuring food security and increasing the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities, the growth level of agricultural investment is expected to increase. At the same time, the central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of county rural commercial banks by 2 percentage points and the deposit reserve ratio of county rural cooperative banks by 0.5 percentage points from April 25. It is estimated that the directional reduction of the deposit reserve ratio will release more than 1000 billion yuan to the fields of agriculture, rural areas and farmers.
Fourth, the reform of the administrative management system and the reform of state-owned enterprises are conducive to stimulating private enterprise investment. At the beginning of this year, the State Council has cancelled and decentralized the examination and approval of 82 investment projects, and is accelerating the formulation of a list of government powers; Some state-owned enterprises have proposed mixed ownership reform programs. Overall, the growth rate of investment in China will slow down, and it is estimated that the investment in fixed assets will increase by about 17% in the second quarter.
2. Consumer demand will remain basically stable. Consumer demand is a relatively stable factor among the three major demands. In the first quarter, the contribution of final consumption to economic growth reached 64.9%. At present, the consumption demand in China will still show a steady growth trend. First, employment is stable, and the growth rate of residents' income has rebounded, which has consolidated the consumption base. Second, the social security system that supports the steady growth of consumption is improving day by day. National financial expenditure is constantly tilting towards social security, public health, education, subsistence allowances and other areas of people's livelihood; Expand the coverage of social security, focusing on the social security of migrant workers and low-income groups; Paying attention to structural unemployment and establishing a unified national basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural areas will help stabilize consumption expectations. Third, new consumption patterns such as information consumption and community consumption stimulate consumption growth. With the implementation of the policy of expanding information consumption, the sales of smart phones, smart TVs and other products have accelerated, and online shopping sales have grown rapidly. At the same time, the community business center will gradually transform into the service center of the city, and the consumption growth of residents' related goods and services will accelerate. Fourth, the consumption of hot spots such as automobiles has grown rapidly. Urban families and institutions have the demand for upgrading automobiles, and the automobile market consumption will continue to grow rapidly; In addition, the consumption of Chinese and western medicines and communication equipment has increased rapidly. It is estimated that the retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by about 12.6% in the second quarter.
3. Export demand will moderately return to normal. At present, driven by developed countries, the global economy is expected to continue to recover moderately, and the international market demand is gradually improving. In April this year, the spring outlook report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the global economy would grow by 3.6%, 0.6 percentage points faster than the previous year. The acceleration of global economic growth is conducive to boosting China's export growth. The promotion of China's foreign trade export leading index released by the General Administration of Customs shows that exports in the second quarter are relatively optimistic. In March this year, the leading index of China's foreign trade export was 4 1.7, up 0.4 from last month; In the first quarter, the average monthly export leading index was 4 1.6, which was significantly higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year.
In addition, the RMB exchange rate has declined steadily this year. The withdrawal of quantitative easing from the United States will trigger the flow of international capital to developed markets, reduce the upward pressure on the real effective exchange rate of RMB, and increase the possibility of two-way exchange rate fluctuations. By the end of April, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated by about 1% this year.
However, the restrictive factors facing the growth of foreign trade cannot be ignored. Under the multiple pressures of capital outflow, currency depreciation and structural risks, emerging economies are still facing greater downward pressure on economic growth, which will lead to insufficient demand for China's export products; There are uncertainties in the monetary policy of the United States and other countries and the changing direction of the world trade and investment pattern, and the competition in the international market is becoming increasingly fierce, so it is difficult for China's exports to change significantly.
Generally speaking, after mid-April, the expansion base factor of trade with China will be eliminated and the growth rate of foreign trade import and export will return to normal. It is estimated that China's exports will increase by about 7% and imports by about 6.5% in the second quarter.
4. The price continues to rise moderately. Judging from the prices of industrial products, the international commodity prices are basically stable, and the pressure of imported inflation is not great. China's industrial production capacity is relatively high, and the pattern of oversupply will not change in the short term, and the price of industrial products will remain negative. From the point of view of service price, the change of population structure has brought about the increase of low-end workers' wages and pushed up the prices of some labor-intensive service industries. From the grain point of view, the grain output increased again in 20 13, and the grain price was basically stable, and because the domestic grain price was already higher than the international price, the room for further increase of grain price was limited; The scale of live pigs is large, and the price of pork will not rise sharply. From the perspective of resource products, according to the requirements of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, 20 14 is a good time window for the price reform of resource products, and adjusting the price of resource products will push up the price. In addition, consumer prices rose by 1.5 percentage points in the second quarter, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. Generally speaking, China's overall price level continues to rise moderately, and there is neither obvious inflationary pressure nor deflation. It is estimated that the consumer price will increase by about 2.3% and the ex-factory price of industrial producers will decrease by about 1. 1% in the second quarter.
5. Macroeconomic growth will decline steadily. According to the economic boom system developed by the National Information Center, the peak of China's comprehensive leading index appeared in March of 20 13, and then 12 months showed a downward trend. The leading index fell slowly and fluctuated slightly during the decline. Generally, the leading index is about 6 months ahead of the consensus index, and the steady and slightly declining trend of the leading index indicates that China's economy will continue its steady and declining trend in the second quarter. It is preliminarily estimated that China's GDP will increase by about 7.4% in the second quarter, and its industrial added value will increase by about 9. 1%.
policy advice
Stabilizing economic operation in a reasonable range is the primary task of macro-control at present. Adhere to overall planning to stabilize growth, adjust structure, promote reform, prevent risks, strengthen macro-control in a forward-looking way, and consolidate the foundation of stable economic growth. Efforts will be made to promote economic restructuring, stabilize social expectations, and resolutely hold the bottom line that systematic and regional financial risks will not occur.
1. Accelerate the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy. First, implement the fiscal expenditure policy, accelerate the disbursement of funds for construction projects such as shantytown renovation, central and western railways, urban rail transit, underground pipe network renovation, promote the construction of a number of water conservancy, grain reserves, nuclear power, hydropower and other projects, accelerate the revitalization of the stock of financial funds, and focus on the weak links in people's livelihood and economic and social development. Second, on the basis of further rationalizing the relationship between the central and local governments, we will issue opinions on the implementation of fiscal transfer payments as soon as possible and strengthen the clean-up and integration of transfer payments between the central and local governments. The third is to accelerate the pilot reform of the camp, and implement support policies such as tax reduction for small and micro enterprises. Improve the consumption tax system, actively promote real estate tax reform, speed up the reform of ad valorem collection of coal resource tax, and promote the reform of urban maintenance and construction tax. The fourth is to speed up the establishment of a standardized local government debt financing mechanism. Standardize the borrowing authority of local governments, implement quota management of local government debt, and gradually incorporate the classification of local government debt revenue and expenditure into budget management. On this basis, we will establish a market-regulated local debt system based on the municipal bond market, with the total scale determined by the central government, and officially start provincial and county governments to issue local debt in the open market. Fifth, continue to develop policy finance and raise funds for infrastructure construction. When necessary, we can consider expanding the scale of special loans and asset securitization of policy banks, and enhance the role of development financial institutions in stabilizing growth and restructuring.
2. Appropriate and flexible use of prudent monetary policy. Financial supervision should strengthen regulation and guidance from the supply and demand of funds to promote the smooth operation of market interest rates. It is necessary to maintain neutral monetary and credit conditions, curb the willingness of economic entities to increase leverage, and effectively reduce the financing costs of the real sector to prevent the excessive rise of social capital costs from endangering the real economy.
First, strengthen short-term liquidity adjustment to ensure the smooth operation of money market interest rates. According to the short-term liquidity supply and demand of the banking system, we should flexibly use the conventional liquidity adjustment tools operated in the open market to maintain a reasonable and moderate market liquidity, and appropriately reduce the deposit reserve ratio when necessary to ensure the stability and abundance of liquidity in the banking system. When liquidity fluctuates abnormally, SLO and SLF tools are used flexibly to achieve selective "directional relaxation", prevent liquidity crisis and maintain stable market operation.
The second is to amend the Law of Commercial Banks, cancel the loan-to-deposit ratio restriction of commercial banks, or appropriately adjust the calculation caliber of loan-to-deposit ratio of commercial banks, reduce the capital cost of commercial banks, and guide commercial banks to lower the credit interest rate.
Third, with the deepening of interest rate marketization and the rise of internet finance, "financial disintermediation" has squeezed the traditional deposit and loan business of commercial banks more and more strongly. Banking regulators should pay attention to the asset-liability structure of commercial banks in the process of interest rate marketization, and pay attention to the influence of Internet finance and non-bank wealth management business such as "Yu 'ebao" and "Yifubao" on the "blood draw" of commercial banks' deposits. Guide and promote the transformation of commercial banks, strengthen financial supervision, and prevent excessive "financial disintermediation" caused by "radical" financial innovation, endangering the smooth operation of the banking system. Fourth, the monetary authorities need to closely monitor cross-border capital flows to grasp the growth of foreign exchange holdings, increase exchange rate fluctuations, prevent the disorderly flow of hot money, and enhance the independence of China's monetary policy.
3. Take urbanization as the starting point to release the huge potential of domestic demand. First, efforts should be made to diversify the investors in urbanization and guide private capital and foreign capital to actively participate in urbanization construction. The second is to use the opportunity of high-speed rail development to promote urbanization and drive the growth of effective demand. The third is to speed up the reform of relevant systems, promote the permanent residents to receive corresponding citizen treatment, plan the social public service systems such as education, culture and sports in urban areas according to the new composition characteristics of the city's total population, and develop corresponding industries such as medical care, old-age care and health care to ensure the accurate docking of residents' demand and supply. Fourth, according to the development of the local real estate market, appropriately liberalize the restrictions of the real estate purchase restriction policy, continue to support self-help demand and improvement demand, and prevent real estate prices from fluctuating sharply in the short term.
4. Comprehensively deepen reform and promote sustained and healthy economic development. First, make a negative list and actively develop mixed ownership; Deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and increase the investment of state-owned capital in public welfare enterprises such as water, electricity, gas and public transportation; The increased income from state-owned capital gains will be mainly used to protect and improve people's livelihood investment. Second, continue to reduce and decentralize the examination and approval of investment projects, and pay close attention to formulating a list of government powers. The third is to establish a local government bond issuance system to allow local governments to borrow reasonably; To establish an effective debt repayment mechanism, local governments should repay debts by selling, transferring or securitizing state-owned assets, and strive to resolve local government debt risks. The fourth is to speed up the reform of the financial system and prevent and resolve financial risks. Fifth, the current moderate inflation is a good opportunity for price reform, and the price reform of water, electricity, natural gas, oil and other resources should be accelerated.
5. Reasonably guide social expectations. First, it is an objective economic law to strengthen the guidance of positive expectations, make clear that the current stage of economic development has changed, correctly understand the decline of potential economic growth rate and seek the new normal. Second, it should be emphasized that the current economic indicators are still in a reasonable growth range, and the financial and fiscal risks existing in economic operation are generally controllable. The third is to gradually establish the reasonable expectation of the market for macro-policy signals, so as to avoid the confusion of policy signals caused by surprise. The fourth is to clarify the regulatory policy signals, stabilize social expectations, accelerate the implementation of reform measures, and boost market confidence.