The economic crisis means that the economic system has not produced enough consumption value. That is the crisis of overcapacity. Some scholars divide economic crisis into passive crisis and active crisis.
The so-called passive economic crisis refers to the situation that the national macroeconomic management authorities have a serious economic recession or a sharp devaluation of the currency without preparation, which leads to a financial crisis and then evolves into an economic crisis. If the nature of the crisis is negative, it is hard to think that the currency will rebound after the crisis, and the process of the crisis is actually a process of re-finding and confirming the value of the domestic currency.
Active crisis refers to the result of policy actions taken by macroeconomic management authorities to achieve a certain goal. The crisis is completely expected by the management, and the crisis or economic recession can be regarded as the opportunity cost of reform.
[Edit this paragraph] The reasons for the economic crisis may be:
★ Economic policy mistakes
★ Raw materials are tight, especially the crude oil crisis.
★ Natural disasters
★ The consequences of globalization
★ Financial policy mistakes
The main cause of the economic crisis is the disparity between the rich and the poor. Another reason why this crisis is so serious is that China's foreign exchange reserves are too high! The specific analysis is as follows:
I. Consumption share
All the goods in the market are like a big cake, and everyone has their share of consumption. Your share is your income.
If the demand is insufficient, the total sales of goods are not smooth, there is only one reason: some people have not taken their share of consumption from the market! Why don't you come and get it?
Second, demand precipitation.
Commodities and money always flow in opposite directions at the same time. So, if the goods don't move, someone must store the corresponding money. No matter where the money is now, one thing is certain, that is, it will not flow!
Because capitalism has its own insoluble contradictions, that is, the contradiction between private ownership and capitalist consumption power; Possession of means of production means possession of more means of consumption. Can you still consume after possession? So capitalism will always have the problem of insufficient demand! ! Every production cycle will produce demand precipitation, and accumulation is a crisis!
During the crisis, the poor suffered, and after the rich slowly consumed the excess sediment, production resumed; This cycle is endless like epilepsy.
Now, the capitalist theory of insufficient consumption explains some important phenomena.
1, asset shrinkage: where has it shrunk? Mainly through the discount promotion of merchants, it flowed into the pockets of ordinary people, which improved the purchasing power of workers in disguise and transferred the consumption share that capitalists could not consume to ordinary people, thus alleviating the crisis; This is a natural phenomenon of economic fever. In other words, if the boss doesn't give the workers a raise in the company, he will give them a raise in the market! Asset shrinkage is God's bank transfer.
2. Credit consumption: This is a big scam! Workers have no money to spend because the distribution is too small. In order to sell products, capitalist groups say that they will use future money and dare to borrow money to spend money! This is that the rich are deceiving the poor, but this kind of deception is incompatible with the tradition of China people; Therefore, the development of capitalism in China will be much more difficult culturally.
3. American high debt: its essence is that the American government borrows money from capitalists to buy capitalist products, so that production can continue; How does the government use this money? Mainly fighting.
4. Low growth: How many mouthfuls can you expect the rich to eat every year?
Why is China developing rapidly?
There are three reasons: 1, China people suddenly have money, and there is a strong demand in all aspects. Before 2005, the demand precipitation was very small, less than10%; 2. Export-oriented economy, selling the precipitated part to overseas markets; 3. The central government's strong regulation and control has appropriately promoted and protected farmers' market consumption share.
Three. Temporary measures
According to the current economic characteristics of China, the following four measures should be taken to get rid of the economic recession:
1, external: foreign exchange reserves decreased rapidly and massively.
This is the main way to help and save China's export enterprises. Foreign exchange reserve is a country's consumption share in the international market. Without consumption, the demand in the international market will shrink, which will seriously damage the export of national products. The above statement is incorrect. Foreign exchange is the fruit of our national labor, and should be used to introduce science and technology and military modernization to serve our future and present personal and property safety and national dignity.
2. Internally: issue bonds to get rid of the crisis.
Where does the country invest its money? Will affect the investment effect. In other words, government investment stimulates the economy, but it is the same money, the same quantity, the same investment purpose, and the effect varies from place to place.
A, using fiscal revenue to invest will basically not change the result. The problem is not the money collected by the government. How much can the government use? Insufficient demand has little to do with the government collecting more money and less money;
B, printing money, which is the same as the essence of taxation; Small amount, no effect; A large number means robbing ordinary people.
C, China's characteristic crisis countermeasures should be-issuing bonds, mainly the money of the rich who do not enter the cycle, saving the money with bonds, and investing with bonds to stimulate domestic demand.
3. Hit real estate hard
The essence of economic recession is a serious disparity between the rich and the poor. The real estate industry in China has taken too much consumption share from the pockets of the poor for many years. China's real estate industry is already in autumn, and it must go through winter to welcome spring. China housing prices need to drop by 50% to recover. What should a drunken man do when he shouts a headache and his stomach is uncomfortable? Can only make him vomit! If a person has no self-control, he must do it. Only by hitting real estate hard can we effectively stimulate related industries and overall domestic demand. There is no problem with house prices for the time being, but they can rise in the future, but it is just a number; If the government pays the bill to support the market, not only real estate, but all related industries will be depressed for a long time. It is the requirement of the law of economic balance to reduce prices and share profits.
The price reduction is to revitalize the chess game.
4. Implement differential deposit and loan interest rates.
Different deposit and loan interest rates for the poor and the rich; Poor deposits have low interest rates, while rich deposits have negative interest rates; Loans to the poor should be relaxed and loans to the rich should be tightened.
At the same time, the interest rate of the existing mortgage is 3-5 fold, on the one hand, to prevent social mood fluctuations caused by falling house prices, on the other hand, to let these residents feel at ease and stimulate domestic demand.
5. Tax cuts for the poor
It is the duty of the state to raise the threshold of personal income adjustment tax and reduce various taxes and fees of individual industrial and commercial households, small and medium-sized enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises on a large scale.
Fourth, long-term measures.
It is the internal behavior of the enterprise, not the external behavior, that leads to the economic crisis, the serious uneven distribution within the enterprise and the serious imbalance of the final market consumption share. Therefore, we must step out of the liberalism and Keynesian thinking mode of adjusting enterprises and economy from the outside; The state's intervention and management of the economy must shift from the outside to the inside of the enterprise. Details are as follows:
1, limit the consumption quota of bosses of large and medium-sized enterprises.
2. Strictly control executive compensation.
3. Vigorously raise the wages of ordinary workers.
4, enterprises should implement public sponsored accounting. Ensure the implementation of the relevant distribution system.
(For the original text, see /sunxinhua 123456cn)
The principle of economic crisis is that human economic activities are simply determined by these factors: population, resources and scientific and technological level. These factors will change in the long run, but they are relatively stable in a certain period, that is to say, the total economic output determined by population, resources and scientific and technological level in this period is limited. For example, a village with a few acres of land and dozens of people can only use animal power for farming, so that no matter how hard the villagers work, the annual grain output can only wander at the same level. By the same token, although the free market economic system in industrial society is much more complicated, due to the constraints of population, resources and scientific and technological level, the total economic output created is relatively limited, and it will reach the peak at that time sooner or later.
The economic aggregate has reached its peak. For the self-sufficient so-called small-scale peasant economy, it is better to eat more than to produce more. But it is a bad thing to put the same problem in the free market economy system of industrial society.
Because under the free market economy system, producers themselves don't need their own products, they need to be exchanged in the market and complete the exchange process, so that the economy can operate normally. This is the problem. Products produced under the free market economy system can basically be divided into two categories, one is capital goods and the other is consumer goods. As for consumer goods, everyone needs food, clothing, shelter and transportation. Capital goods are goods used to expand reproduction, but not everyone wants capital goods, such as land, factories and machinery. Only when investors feel that they have made money will they pay for it.
Ideally, investors always feel that there is money to make, and consumers' confidence is bursting, so that the economy will grow healthily and everyone will make money. But the problem is that ideal and reality are two different things, because as I said before, the total economic output is relatively limited and it is impossible to expand production all the time.
Specifically, if you are an investor, at the peak of the economic aggregate, you will find that the land rent is getting more and more expensive, the raw materials are getting more and more expensive, the wages of workers are rising, and the costs are getting higher and higher, so the profits are getting less and less, and the situation in almost all industries is similar. If this situation continues, it is estimated that you will stop investing wisely, or simply close the factory and use the money to speculate on real estate, stocks, gold and so on. From investors to speculators. Before the crisis, a big economic bubble was blown, so every time before the economic crisis, the economy would seem to be prosperous as never before, but in fact, the average profit rate of enterprises has fallen to the lowest point, and without the support of the real economy, the final result is the bursting of the economic bubble.
In the end, no one took money out to invest. When people's money is not used for investment, the market demand for capital goods will drop sharply, resulting in a series of chain reactions of the economic crisis. I guess everyone is familiar with it, so I won't say much.
From the first world economic crisis in the capitalist economic system in 1847 to before World War II, there was an economic crisis every 10 years on average. In other words, with the conditions of population, resources and scientific and technological level at that time, the total economic output reached a peak every 10 year on average. The economy of the free market economy system always falls sharply at the most prosperous time. At the bottom of the valley, investors make profits again, and the economy starts to pick up again, and so on, forming a cycle.