The average life expectancy index comprehensively reflects the level of disease prevention and health services in a country or region, and plays an important role in population analysis and population prediction. It is usually regarded as an important index to measure the quality of life and medical and health level of residents in a country or region internationally.
research progress
On June 30th, 2002/kloc-0, researchers Michael Pierce and Adrian E. Rafter of the University of Washington published a paper in Demographic Research. They used Bayesian statistics to analyze the latest data of the International Longevity Database (IDL), which recorded 10 European countries and 165438 USA, Canada and Japan.
The results show that the "world record" of 122 years old has a 99% probability of being broken in 2 100. They estimate that the probability that a person will live to be at least 126 years old, 128 years old and 130 years old in this century is 89%, 44% and 65438+ respectively.