Can the fund conduct short-term investment analysis?

Can the fund conduct short-term investment analysis?

In the stock market, investors can use the trend of stocks for short-term operation, that is, buying at the low position of individual stocks and selling at the high position of individual stocks to earn a certain price difference. So, can they do short-term operations in the fund market? Can funds make short-term investments? The following is the relevant content prepared by Xiaobian for your reference.

Can funds make short-term investments?

Funds can be short-term, but when they are short-term, investors need to grasp the trend of funds more accurately. Once the forecast is wrong, investors may miss the opportunity for the fund to rise, or be trapped. At the same time, frequent buying and selling will greatly increase the cost of subscription and redemption. Among them, investors who have held the Fund for less than seven days will be charged a high redemption fee according to the standard of 1.5%.

When doing short-term, investors should choose stock funds and index funds. Take these volatile funds as investment targets and make good use of their fluctuations to earn a certain price difference. For some money funds and bond funds with relatively stable fluctuations, it is not suitable for short-term operation, and it is difficult for investors to obtain income in the short term.

Investors can also choose Class C funds when doing short-term, which is more cost-effective than Class A funds, because Class C funds do not charge subscription fees, but charge a certain sales service fee, which is accrued on a daily basis and withdrawn on a monthly basis. The calculation formula of the daily sales service fee payable is = (the net asset value of the previous day × the annual sales service fee rate)/the actual number of days in the current year, all of which will be paid from the fund assets and will not be paid to investors separately.

How do investors buy funds for short-term operations?

1. Investors can buy when the underlying fund ends the downward trend and starts the upward trend, and sell when the upward trend ends and starts the downward trend.

2. In short-term operation, investors can choose to buy in batches to spread the cost of holding positions, and then sell them when their net value is higher than the cost of holding positions and handling fees to earn a certain difference.

3. Some funds exist in OTC and OTC markets, and short-term investors can use the price difference between the two markets for arbitrage. For example, when the etf price in the market is greater than the net value, investors will buy a basket of stocks from the secondary market, then convert them into etf fund shares in the primary market according to the net value, and then sell etfs in the secondary market at a high price to complete arbitrage, or when the ETF price in the market is less than the net value, investors will buy ETF fund shares in the secondary market at a low price, and then press positions.

When doing short-term, investors can also make long-term investments appropriately, which can completely absorb the possible losses caused by short-term investments, increase the stability of profits, and reduce market risks over time. Fixed investment is a common long-term investment strategy, that is, to spread risks by increasing the share held by investors and sharing the cost of holding positions equally.

First, the fund can do short-term operations.

Some people who oppose short-term trading believe that frequent short-term trading costs a lot.

This statement is wrong.

From the perspective of transaction costs, it is definitely higher than long-term, but it will not be much higher.

1, the short-term handling fee of the fund is not expensive.

In the short-term transaction costs of funds, it is not high to use on-site ETF trading or off-site C-share trading.

(1) Exchange ETF transaction

There is no stamp duty on ETF transactions, and the fees charged are generally 2.5 ‰, depending on the price signed with you at that time, some are 3 ‰, some are 2.5 ‰, or even lower.

As long as it is not ultra-short and ultra-high frequency trading, the transaction cost is really not high.

(2) OTC Class C fund transactions

In addition, the subscription fee is not charged for Class C fund shares, but the sales service fee is accrued. The sales service fee for Class C fund shares shall be accrued at the annual rate of 0.2%-0.60% of the net asset value of Class C fund shares on the previous day. For example, taking 0.4% as an example, the service charge for a transaction of 10000 yuan is 10000 _ _ 0.4.

So in terms of transaction cost, the transaction cost is not much higher.

2. Short-term funds are easier than short-term stocks.

In addition, the short-term trading operation of funds is simpler than that of stocks. Because stocks need to make more targeted feedback on the company's fundamentals and related events, the cognitive threshold for enterprises and segments is higher.

The fund is a basket of stocks, which is highly correlated with the whole market. Therefore, short-term operation can be carried out directly according to the overall market trend and technical analysis, and individual factors are slightly smaller, so its operation may be simpler than that of stocks.

Second, ordinary people, I don't recommend short-term funds.

Because the short-term transaction cost of funds is not high, and compared with stocks, it is simpler. Then why don't I suggest short-term operation of the fund?

1. Short-term success is easy, but long-term stability is difficult

Let's take a look at the representatives of long-term investors and short-term investors in history, namely Buffett and Livermore.

Buffett has accumulated great wealth through long-term shareholding; Livermore experienced ups and downs, many bankruptcies and changeable marriages. In the long-term performance of the top two players, we can see that many people can achieve short-term and short-term success, but those who can achieve long-term stable success are rare. Trading experts all end up like this, and it is more difficult for ordinary people to achieve the success of short-term trading.

2. Short-term will miss the opportunity for the fund to make big money.

Short-term trading is essentially short-term timing trading. I've seen a soochow securities study before, and the study of ten times heavy stocks really proves that the A-share fund managers' stock selection ability is excellent, but they missed half of the ten times earnings due to timing operation, that is to say, in fact, most fund managers have not shown excellent timing ability in the long run. In recent years, from the trend point of view, more and more fund managers have given up the position choice and played down the timing choice.

As mentioned above, A-share fund managers do have excellent stock selection ability, so our investment fund actually helps us choose a better stock portfolio with the help of the fund manager's brain. We essentially want to make money from the ability of fund managers, but ignore this point, so even if you invest in the products of the most powerful fund managers in the last 20 or 20 years for a short time, you may eventually lose money.

Therefore, if your fund planning is long-term and there is no urgent need to cash out immediately, my suggestion is to minimize the trading frequency of the fund and try to avoid ultra-short-term intraday trading.

3. Industry theme funds can occasionally be short-term, but they should be prepared to miss the opportunity.

Has it always been unsuitable for short-term trading?

Not exactly. Under some special circumstances, it is also possible to conduct short-term trading occasionally. Let's define short-term, medium-term and long-term for everyone. Generally, short-term trading is less than 3 months, and ultra-short-term trading is basically completed within 1-3 trading days, with 3 months-1 year as the medium term and 1 year as the long term.

Under what circumstances can I do short-term trading occasionally?

Let me give you an example. For example, in April this year, you bought Gulen's China-Europe medical and health mix, and then the CSI medical index rose sharply in a month or two, reaching the highest level in the past decade. At this time, it is understandable that you made a short-term sale in July and August. Then you are still optimistic about the pharmaceutical sector, and you get it back in mid-September and complete a short-term transaction. In other words, you are optimistic about the long-term trend of an industry or theme, but after you buy it, the target reaches a historical high in a short time, and then you wait for the valuation to fall before buying it. Such short-term trading is also logical.

But you may also face the risk of stepping on the air, or misjudge the callback position, which requires high technology. Short-term trading funds like this try to choose index funds or actively managed industry theme funds in the selection of targets, because the valuation of such funds is relatively easy to track, and there are relative valuations of indexes tracked by benchmarks on websites such as egg rolls. However, funds with too many industry companies are not easy to track, and there are relatively few things to refer to in short-term trading.

In addition to the above situations, I think investment funds should try to avoid too many short-term transactions and lengthen the time appropriately.

Third, short-term trading is difficult.

1. It is labor-intensive and consumes a lot of energy.

Everyone must have had this experience. They stare at the computer for hours when doing short-term trading. If they are not careful, they will miss the opportunity. What's more, they think that a good deal has been slapped by the market and is very tired. In fact, the purpose of investing money in excellent fund managers is to let them help us bear these troubles and let us have more leisure to enjoy life.

2. The technical difficulty is high, and there is no once-and-for-all method.

Good technical analysis methods have appeared in some stages in history, but they often fail after a period of popularity. The reason is that when a technical analysis method works, more and more people will adopt this method in the market, and the more people use it, the worse the effect will be. Because short-term trading is a zero-sum game, it is impossible for everyone to get more excess income, so the income obtained by this short-term technical analysis method will naturally return to mediocrity. Now that the internet is more developed, this trend will be more clear, and there are not many exclusive secrets in the methodology of short-term trading. However, holding a foundation for a long time is often a positive sum game. As long as you choose the right person and foundation, everyone can benefit.

3. Psychological stress.

Short-term trade fairs frequently face challenges and fluctuations in a relatively short period of time. Continuous stop loss or mistakes will cause psychological pressure and affect performance. For example, the performance of some excellent basketball players at the critical moment of the game may hit the market because of nervousness, and the same is true for trading. Depression, loss, nervousness, and emotional transactions will frequently strike. As long as a few mistakes are made, the impact on the results will be fatal.

4. The competition is fierce.

Buffett once said: Everyone wants to get rich, but no one wants to get rich slowly. Because most people are profit-seeking, especially short-term profit-seeking, this is the fierce competition in short-term trading market. What's more, technologies such as quantitative artificial intelligence are directly used. Imagine that Ke Jie, the top champion of Weiqi, can't stand artificial intelligence in chess, so it is difficult for ordinary investors to beat artificial intelligence in short-term trading.

5. It is difficult to improve the winning rate.

Because the time level of short-term trading is relatively small, it is more random. For a while, you may have a high winning rate, but with the passage of time, the average person's winning rate tends to be mediocre, and it is quite difficult to improve the winning rate to a great extent.

6. Black Swan Event.

Typically, for example, the price of crude oil fell to a negative value due to the epidemic, which made many short-term bargain hunters burst their positions.

To sum up, the difficulty of short-term trading lies in high labor intensity, physical and mental fatigue, high technology and winning rate, and some black swan events will also be encountered. Moreover, the transaction itself is anti-human. The higher the transaction frequency, the greater the probability of making mistakes. Sometimes making mistakes several times may face very serious consequences.

4. What is the essential difference between long-term and short-term?

Short-term money is emotional money and game money, because the overall market size will not expand rapidly in the short term, so the total amount is relatively stable. Everyone tries to eat meat in it. If someone eats meat, naturally someone may be stabbed.

What you earn for a long time is performance money, which is value investment. As we all know, price = price-earnings ratio _ _ earnings per share.

Even if the price-earnings ratio given by Mr. Market remains unchanged or slightly reduced, as long as its performance continues to grow steadily, the stock price can naturally be supported. And this process can last for a long time. This is an active activity, as Gao Yan and Zhang Lei said: Be friends with time. Therefore, we can grasp bull stocks such as Hengrui Pharma.

In fact, we have lengthened the time, and we have seen amazing returns from many high-quality stocks. For example, Kweichow Moutai, Hengrui Pharma and Wanhua Chemical have increased by 200-300 times since 2000. What concept? As long as you invested 1 10,000 yuan to buy these targets in 2000, there are now two or three million, and the wealth effect is amazing.