Quantitative analysis and countermeasures of financial risks in China

Sina Finance News 2008 Lujiazui (15.43,-1.37, -8. 15%, right) forum opened at 9: 00 am on May 9 at Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong. In his speech at the forum, Wang Qishan, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, stressed the need to further strengthen the infrastructure of the securities market. In addition, preventing and resolving risks is the eternal theme of financial development, which will affect the stability of the whole society if it is not handled well.

Wang Qishan believes that China should continue to deepen its financial reform. At present, there is still a big gap between China's financial market and modern financial market. In order to make China's financial enterprises stand the test, we must also promote the reform of securities, banking and insurance, fundamentally change the weak situation of rural finance, deepen the faster reform of rural finance, and further strengthen the infrastructure for the reform of securities market, RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and foreign exchange management system.

However, Wang Qishan also stressed that while carrying out reform and development, we should earnestly safeguard the stability of the financial system and guard against risks, which is the eternal theme of financial development. If it is not handled well, it will affect the stability of the whole society. (Yuan Ping)

The following is a speech by Wang Qishan, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council:

This year marks the 30th anniversary of China's reform and opening up. Thirty years ago, under the advocacy and leadership of Mr. Deng Xiaoping, the people of China resolutely embarked on the historical journey of reform and opening up. Up to now, China has successfully achieved a great historical turning point from a planned economy system to a socialist market economy system, and from closed and semi-closed to full opening, and has made great achievements in economic and social development that have attracted worldwide attention. The GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.7%, and the foreign trade grew at an average annual rate of 17.4%. At present, it has risen to the fourth and third place in the world respectively, and the people's lives have generally achieved a well-off life. However, at present, China is still in the primary stage of socialism and will be in it for a long time, and the per capita GNP ranks behind 100 in the world. There are still a considerable number of poor people in urban and rural areas, and the level of urbanization is not high. China, which accounts for15 of the world's population, has achieved modernization, and it is impossible to repeat the road that developed countries consume a lot of energy resources, polluting first and then treating it. In the process of modernization, China will face many difficulties and challenges. In order to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020 put forward by the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we will unswervingly follow the road of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, thoroughly implement Scientific Outlook on Development, continue to promote reform and opening up, adhere to the people-oriented principle, promote social harmony, and build China into a prosperous, democratic and harmonious modern country, which is not only an important contribution to the world, but also a great feat for the cause of human progress.

Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly, with GDP increasing by 10.6% year-on-year. However, there are also some contradictions and problems in economic operation, mainly because the overall price level is high and the investment in fixed assets has not yet returned to a reasonable range. At the same time, the slowdown of world economic growth and the intensification of global inflation have also caused great external pressure on China's economy. In order to overcome the influence of various unfavorable factors at home and abroad, we will strengthen macro-control, implement a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy, prevent economic growth from turning from fast to overheated, and prevent prices from evolving from structural rise to obvious inflation. To maintain the long-term stable and rapid economic growth in China, the key is to speed up the transformation of economic development mode, solve deep-seated structural contradictions, and adjust the relationship between investment and consumption. Focus on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, and enhance the coordination and sustainability of development.

Ladies and gentlemen, friends, I would like to briefly introduce the financial situation in China. Since the reform and opening up, especially in recent years, China's finance has undergone historic changes in terms of the depth of reform, the breadth of opening up and the speed of development. The banking, securities and insurance industries have developed rapidly, the quality of financial assets has been continuously improved, the financial system has been gradually improved, and financial reform has been accelerated. Substantial progress has been made in the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and the reform of interest rate marketization has been gradually promoted. A number of large state-owned financial enterprises such as China Industrial and Commercial Bank (3.82, -0. 15, -3.78%, right) completed the shareholding system reform and successfully listed at home and abroad. Financial supervision continued to be strengthened, financial laws and regulations were constantly improved, and the prevention and disposal of financial risks achieved results. Especially with the development of China's financial market, we have also experienced the test of financial market risks, even regional and systemic risks. China Municipal Government persisted in promoting reform, adopted market-oriented measures and relevant policy measures in a timely manner, successfully handled and resolved risks, and maintained the stable and healthy development of the financial market.

The steady expansion of financial opening to the outside world, the rapid increase of foreign financial institutions entering China's domestic market, and the accelerated pace of China's financial enterprises going abroad show that China's financial industry is more dynamic and open today and is becoming a new force in the world financial structure. At present, China's financial industry is still in the primary stage of development, and the overall level is not high. Exploring the financial development path with China characteristics will still be a long-term, complex and arduous task, which requires courage, wisdom and perseverance to overcome difficulties, and all work needs to be done in a down-to-earth manner. We will take measures from the following aspects to strive to maintain the stable and healthy development of the financial industry.

First, accelerate the transformation of financial development mode. Extensive development mode has affected the quality and level of financial development in China. Deep-seated contradictions and problems such as unreasonable structure, low efficiency of financial enterprises, weak service innovation ability and lack of talents need to be solved urgently. It is an important and urgent strategic task to accelerate the transformation of financial development mode, and strive to solve the outstanding problems that affect and restrict the scientific development of the financial industry. We will continue to promote the stable and healthy development of the capital market, accelerate the development of the insurance market, bond market, foreign exchange market and money market, gradually form a multi-level financial market system, and give greater play to the basic role of the market in allocating resources. Vigorously promote the innovation of financial organization system, products and services, accelerate the training and introduction of various financial talents, and build a high-quality financial team. Constantly improve the level of financial supervision and service, increase support for weak links in economic and social development, and promote sound and rapid development of the national economy.

Second, continue to deepen financial reform. China's financial reform has made great progress, but there is still a big gap compared with the requirements of the modern financial system, and the reform has a long way to go. In order to make financial enterprises in China truly stand the test of market competition and economic cycle changes under the open conditions, we must continue to promote the reform of banks, securities and insurance enterprises, improve corporate governance, speed up the transformation of operating mechanisms, and strengthen internal control and risk prevention mechanisms. To fundamentally change the weak state of rural finance, we must continue to deepen various reforms of rural finance and accelerate the improvement of rural financial system. To maintain the good momentum of the rapid and healthy development of the securities and insurance industry, we must further strengthen the capital market infrastructure and deepen the insurance reform. To comprehensively improve the ability and level of financial macro-control, we must continue to promote various reforms such as monetary policy control mechanism, RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, interest rate marketization, and foreign exchange management system.

Third, steadily push forward financial opening. Compared with developed countries, China's financial development is not mature enough, the international competitiveness of financial enterprises is not strong, financial supervision is still weak, and opening up is facing new challenges, but China has not slowed down the pace of financial reform and opening up. We have been promoting the opening-up of banks, securities and insurance in an all-round way in accordance with the commitments made after China's accession to the WTO. We will adhere to the policy of active, steady and gradual progress, continue to promote financial opening to the outside world, make the pace and intensity of opening up adapt to the level of economic development, market development and financial supervision ability, and better promote the mutual integration of China's finance and global finance.

Fourth, earnestly safeguard financial security and stability. The history of financial development and the current subprime mortgage crisis prove that preventing and resolving risks is the eternal theme of financial development. If it is not handled well, it will probably lead to financial turmoil and affect the stability of the economy and even the whole society and politics. Financial security is directly related to the overall economic and social stability of the country and the fundamental interests of the people, so maintaining financial security and stability must be put in the first place. We will continue to improve the financial supervision system and mechanism, continue to strengthen financial supervision, promote financial innovation and continuously improve the ability and level of financial supervision on the premise of effective supervision and risk prevention. Improve foreign exchange management methods, improve foreign exchange management laws and regulations, and strengthen the supervision of cross-border capital flows. Accelerate the construction of financial safety net and improve financial emergency mechanism and emergency plan. Severely crack down on all kinds of illegal financial activities and strengthen the popularization of financial knowledge and risk education in the whole society.

Like other countries in the world, China's financial industry faces both rare development opportunities and unprecedented challenges. The rapid advancement of financial globalization and the continuous acceleration of financial innovation have injected vitality and vitality into financial development, but at the same time they have also amplified financial risks and accelerated the transmission between regions and industries. In particular, the uncertainties of world economic and financial instability have increased, the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis has spread, the international financial market has been turbulent, some financial institutions have suffered serious losses, the exchange rate of the US dollar has continued to fall, global liquidity has been excessive, and the flow and mode of international capital have become more complicated. The instability of international finance in developed countries is particularly unfavorable to emerging developing countries, including China. As a responsible big country, China is willing to work with the financial circles of other countries to discuss and solve the major problems facing the international financial field and promote the prosperity and stability of global finance.

Ladies and gentlemen, friends, Shanghai was once the financial center of Asia in history, with unique geographical advantages, strong economic strength and historical and cultural characteristics, and many favorable conditions for developing the financial industry. In the early 1990s, according to the overall layout of reform, opening-up and modernization, China government put forward the strategic goal of building Shanghai into an international financial center. We believe that with the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous advancement of financial reform and opening up, with the joint efforts of all parties, this grand blueprint will eventually become a reality.