Since the second quarter of 200212, affected by the tightening of housing credit environment, the second-hand housing market took the lead in cooling down, and it was gradually transmitted to the new housing and land markets in the second half of the year. The real estate industry is full of confusion and twists and turns because of the slowdown of the property market, the lack of money for housing enterprises and the cold current of the soil. On this occasion, the official intensive release of stable signals, does it mean that real estate funds are expected to improve?
The answer seems to be yes. 10 Since June, the market temperature has been quietly changing at the mortgage interest rate end, which reflects the credit environment. According to the latest monitoring data of RealData, in June 5438+ 10, the interest rate of the mainstream first home loan in 90 cities was 5.73%, and the interest rate of the second home loan was 5.99%, both of which were lower than last month 1 basis point. In June 5438+ 10, the mortgage interest rate was adjusted to the first month-on-month decline in the year.
The institute believes that a slight change at the end of the market represents an improvement in the credit environment. Since the end of September, the central bank has repeatedly released positive signals, and it is expected that housing credit will return to "stable and orderly" in the fourth quarter.
However, the reasons behind the rapid cooling of the current property market are more complicated: the demand of the third-and fourth-tier property markets is overdrawn in advance, and the real estate cycle is smoothed out under the condition of "housing and not speculating". The real estate industry generally believes that it is not realistic to stimulate the market in a "big relaxation" way. In September this year, the cooling rate of the property market even exceeded the market decline of 14.
Loose signal of mortgage interest rate
At the end of the property market, some subtle changes are taking place.
10 year 10 on October 20th, RealData released a report saying that in June, mortgage interest rates in 20 cities were lowered, including the first home loan interest rate in 14 city, the second home loan interest rate in 14 city and the first and second home loan interest rates in nine overlapping cities. On the whole, the interest rate of the mainstream first home loan in 90 cities is 5.73%, and the interest rate of the second home loan is 5.99%, both down 1 basis point from last month.
From the downward list of cities, most of them are third-and fourth-tier cities except Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Specifically, in June 5438+ 10, the top places for the first home loan interest rate reduction were Luoyang, Huzhou, Guangzhou, Zhongshan, Xiangyang, Dazhou, Wuxi, Tai 'an, Jilin, Shenzhen, Beihai, Tangshan, Zhangzhou and Mianyang. Among them, the interest rate of the first home loan in Luoyang was lowered by 25 basis points from last month.
Guangzhou is the "focus" in the recent mortgage interest rate turmoil. As early as the beginning of 10, market news showed that some banks in Guangzhou did show signs of lowering mortgage interest rates, including China Bank, Agricultural Bank, Guangzhou Bank, China Merchants Bank and China Everbright Bank. The mortgage interest rate is lower than in the past, and now the report data also confirms this.
Judging from the lending cycle, the average lending cycle of 90-city loans in June 5438-1October was 74 days, which was longer than last month. According to the report, this is mainly due to the time difference between lending action and interest rate adjustment. Most of the loans issued by the bank in June 5438+ 10 were signed a few months ago. From the perspective of some cities, the lending cycle of Shanghai, Wuhu, Nanning, Yantai, Zhengzhou and other cities has been shortened compared with September.
Some real estate agents in Shanghai said that bank lending has indeed become a little faster recently, and some property buyers in Zhengzhou also reflected a similar situation.
"The central bank will set the tone for the real estate market at the third quarter meeting at the end of September to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. On June 5438+ 10, some city banks lowered the mortgage interest rate, which is a concrete practice of' two maintenance', and the credit environment of the housing market has improved. " RealData thinks.
It is worth noting that despite the fine-tuning of mortgage interest rates, interest rates in many places are still at a high level. For example, Xinxiang, Xuchang and Kaifeng in Henan, the mainstream first home loan interest rates of these three cities are as high as 6.37%, ranking first among 90 cities; The second-hand mainstream interest rate is as high as 6.86% in Kaifeng, Xinxiang and 6.80% in Huizhou.
The market fundamentals have not yet "bottomed out"
The trend of credit policy is very important to the somatosensory temperature of the property market.
Since the third quarter of this year, it has been difficult for banks all over the country to lend money, especially in hot cities such as East China and South China. The queuing phenomenon of mortgage loans in the property market is serious, which seriously restricts the transaction of the property market. Judging from the lending cycle, it is generally more than 3 months, and some cities even need more than 6 months, which has greatly cooled the second-hand housing transactions in the national property market.
The second-hand housing market has cooled down and gradually spread to the new housing and land markets; The cooling of new houses and land markets has further weakened the expectations of the second-hand housing market. Under various factors, the property market has ushered in an extremely tragic "bronze nine".
Han Yizhiku said that from June 5438 to September, the national commercial housing sales area was165438+54 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.40%, and the growth rate dropped by 5. 1 percentage point compared with August. The monthly sales area in September was 1.25 million square meters, down 1.5% year-on-year. The sales area of "Jin Jiu" has dropped the most in seven years, even exceeding the market decline of 14 years.
In terms of second-hand housing, the market has entered the overall "freezing point". Han Yizhiku said that except outside Zhengzhou, the transaction area of other monitored cities decreased year-on-year; Beijing fell by 27.94% year-on-year and 2 1.90% month-on-month, while Shanghai and Shenzhen fell by 62. 16% and 78.33% year-on-year, and Shenzhen hit a new low since February 2020.
"At present, the loan is still relatively slow, and the audit materials are relatively strict. No bank can promise the time limit. " A real estate agent in Beijing said that buyers are waiting in line and everyone is waiting for the first wave of lending next year. In addition, due to the expected impact of the school district housing policy, the recent decline in the volume of second-hand housing in Xicheng District and Haidian District is more obvious.
An industry insider in Ningbo believes that property buyers are now "numb" and the interest rate level has not actually had much impact on the market. Unlike the previous interest rate of 20% to 10%, you can give the property market a chicken blood. "There are not many sets of real transactions. Some transactions are still the owners themselves, and there are very few real second-hand housing transactions. "
In Huizhou, the overall mortgage still presents the situation of tight bank quota, high loan interest rate, strict audit requirements and extended mortgage cycle. According to the investigation of Huizhou Zhongyuan Real Estate, the current lending time generally lasts for 3 to 6 months, which is still longer than that in June. The difficulty in handling second-hand housing loans has obviously increased, and credit has not been relaxed.
In RealData's view, the recent sharp adjustment of the property market is affected by factors such as the low base last year and the "high operation" of commercial housing sales area in the first half of this year. As of June this year, the national real estate market has been running at a high level 14 months. During this period, there was demand for investment speculation, and some just needed to enter the market in advance. Now the callback is to squeeze out this part of the "water."
China galaxy Securities believes that the fundamentals have not yet bottomed out, and the decline in sales in the fourth quarter will continue to accelerate. "The turning point of industry sales was established in July and began to enter the negative growth range, but the fundamentals have not yet bottomed out and the policy level is already at the bottom. If the fundamentals accelerate in the future, the expectation of policy stability will be further strengthened. "
The official voice released a stable signal.
The low temperature spread of the real estate industry and the frequent game of local "rescue", what is the next policy? Will the credit level usher in a substantial improvement? Recently, officials have frequently voiced their voices and released positive and stable signals.
At the annual meeting of 202 1 Financial Street Forum held on October 20th, 65438, Commissioner the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Liu He, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China said that the reasonable capital demand of the real estate market is being met, and the overall situation of the healthy development of the real estate market will not change.
On the same day, Pan, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that the excessive contraction of risk appetite in the real estate market, financial institutions and financial markets has been gradually corrected, and financing behavior and financial market prices are gradually returning to normal.
10 On June 5438+05, Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department of the Central Bank, also said that in the first three quarters of this year, housing prices in a few cities rose too fast, personal housing loans were subject to some constraints, and the rate of housing price increase was restrained. After housing prices stabilize, the relationship between mortgage supply and demand in these cities will also return to normal.
China galaxy Securities believes that from the recent statements of the central and local governments, the most tense moment of credit has passed, and the central bank can look forward to the relaxation of mortgage and housing credit. At present, the policy orientation has changed from "tight" to "stable". Under the trend of sharp cooling in sales, the intention of policy bottoming began to appear. There are many policy tools available at present, but it is difficult to reproduce the "big water release" relaxation.
Huaxi Securities also said that at present, most banks have not reached the red line of the proportion of personal mortgage loans, and some banks have experienced excessive pressure drop, which has accelerated the release of mortgage loans and left certain policy space. If the mortgage loan is accelerated in the fourth quarter of 200212002, it is expected to alleviate the current financial shortage of housing enterprises and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
According to its calculation, the theoretical pressure drop scale of 54 sample banks is1h177.8 billion yuan, while the actual pressure drop scale of individual housing loans is 7 173 billion yuan, which is much larger than the required pressure drop scale under linear assumption. ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and Bank of Communications, which did not touch the red line, also saw a decline in the proportion of personal mortgages.
"At present, the real estate market situation is undergoing drastic changes, the sales of commercial housing have fallen sharply, the funds of housing enterprises are tight, and the overseas debt defaults of housing enterprises are intensive, which is closely related to the real estate credit crunch." The Central Reference Institute said that judging from the recent statements of the regulatory authorities, the tight real estate credit policy is expected to be corrected and the real estate credit supply will be accelerated.