The imbalance between financial order and financial development, financial innovation and the absence of financial supervision are the important reasons for the American financial crisis. A country should have a corresponding financial order and balance the financial order while developing finance. 1933 After the great crisis, the United States promulgated the glass-steagall act, which implemented strict separate supervision and separate operation. In the following 60 years, the American financial industry has made unprecedented development, but at the same time of rapid development, the uncertainty of the financial market has also increased accordingly. From 65438 to 0999, the US Congress passed the Financial Services Modernization Act, which promoted financial liberalization, relaxed financial supervision and ended the separation of banking, securities and insurance.
In addition, the problems in the financial ecology also contributed to the further development of the financial crisis. Financial ecology essentially reflects the organic value relationship between internal and external factors of finance. The financial crisis in the United States is not only a problem of financial supervision, but also the deterioration of social credit, lack of supervision, market chaos, information asymmetry and moral hazard in the subprime mortgage crisis, which is an important manifestation of financial ecological problems.
Since 1999, the United States has relaxed financial supervision, resulting in problems in the financial ecological environment. Financial derivatives split, the value chain became longer and longer, and finally broke in the real estate mortgage loan, which triggered the subprime mortgage crisis. In the pursuit of CDO and MBS, Wall Street gradually formed a higher asset-equity ratio. The leverage ratio of investment banks is increasing, and financial risks are constantly superimposed.
Another reason for the US financial crisis is that the fundamentals of the US economy have gone wrong. From the end of the 20th century to the beginning of this century, the world economic structure was greatly adjusted, the original supply and demand curve of the world was broken, and prices rose. The United States adopts the method of unilaterally controlling aggregate demand, which widens the original supply gap, keeps rising prices, reverses the employment situation, and reduces residents' income and purchasing power.
In the past 60 years, American economic growth and domestic consumption have exceeded the capacity of domestic productivity. On the one hand, the United States has achieved unbearable growth in the process of virtualization of the real economy and bubble of the virtual economy; On the other hand, the United States distributes huge historical debts to the world through the reserve currency status of the US dollar and the value transmission mechanism of the capital market. This has increased the dependence of the US economy and shaken the position and confidence of the US economy and the US dollar.
Before the subprime mortgage crisis, the US government issued a series of bills and policies to restrict imports and exports, which was an important factor leading to the weakening of the economic environment. Various trade barriers have been set up for developing countries in terms of imports, and restrictions have been imposed on technical products in terms of exports. These policies have directly promoted the price increase in the United States, reduced employment opportunities in the United States, and curbed the domestic economic innovation drive, which is also an important incentive for the outbreak of the financial crisis.
The financial crisis swept the world, and Chengdu migrant workers "returned to their hometowns"
Migrant workers: I don't know what a "financial crisis" is. All I know is that companies cut salaries first and then lay off employees. Labor market: Recently, the number of migrant workers seeking jobs increased by 30% year-on-year.
The financial crisis is the chief culprit for depressed patients in Chengdu to lose their jobs and girlfriends.
Lovelorn, caused by the financial crisis; The stock is locked up, which is caused by the financial crisis; The company went bankrupt because of the financial crisis. ...
-Look at the changes all over the country:
Six rooms of the video website will be laid off by two thirds, and the overall staff size of six rooms will be reduced from 200 to 60, of which 200 are the total number of six rooms in China.
China's wage income has dropped sharply, and 70% of companies in China do not plan to recruit new employees, and 8% of them do not plan to change jobs for the time being. In 2009, there were 5.9 million graduates, plus unemployed previous graduates, and 6 million were still struggling.
It is reported that both WISCO and Baosteel plan to reduce their salaries, among which WISCO employees plan to reduce their salaries by 20%. Earlier news was that Vanke and Zhongyuan cut salaries and laid off employees, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines cut salaries and laid off employees, Bird and Amoi were forced to cut labor costs, and PetroChina laid off employees substantially ... The salary cuts and layoffs affected a series of industries such as real estate, aviation, petrochemical, electric power, IT, securities, finance and printing. Migrant workers who go out to work in the midwest are the least able to cope. Sichuan, Anhui, Henan and other provinces have experienced a wave of migrant workers returning home to varying degrees.
The People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions from June 30, 2008, and the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits was lowered from the current 3.87% to 3.60%, down by 0.27 percentage point. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was lowered from the current 6.93% to 6.66%, down by 0.27 percentage points; The benchmark interest rates for other grades of deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly. The interest rate of individual housing provident fund loans remains unchanged.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut interest rate by 0.5 percentage point: Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut its basic interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1.5% on Thursday.
China 1 month cut interest rates twice and abolished interest tax: from June 65438+1October 65438+May 2008, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points.
-Look at the international changes:
On1October 20th, 2008, 10, the Korean government implemented a large-scale financial rescue plan.
On1October 20th, 2008, 10, the Dutch government made a large-scale capital injection into ING.
In 20081October 20 10, Latin American central banks will jointly deal with the financial crisis.
On June 65438+1October 65438+July 2008, Germany adopted a rescue plan of 500 billion euros.
On June 65438+1October 65438+July 2008, Citigroup lost its title as the largest bank in the United States.
On June 5438+1October 65438+May, 2008, US stocks reappeared "Black Wednesday".
On June 65438+1October 65438+April 2008, the United States announced the details of the first rescue plan.
On June 65438+1October 65438+March 2008, Britain injected 37 billion pounds into banks.
On June 5438+1October 65438+February 2008, the euro zone countries adopted a large-scale rescue plan.
On June 10, 2008, the Spanish government approved the establishment of a fund with a scale of 30 billion euros.
10 On June 9th, the Financial Supervision Committee of the Icelandic government announced that it would take over Kaupthing, the largest commercial bank in the country.
On June 8, 2008, 10, Sweden announced that it would provide assistance to Kaupthing's branch in Sweden.
On June 7, 2008, the Icelandic government announced that it would take over Landsbanki, the second largest local bank in financial difficulties.
On June 7, 2008, 10, the Dow Jones index fell below 10000 for the first time in four years, which is also the first time that the index fell below 10000 since June 2004.
10 On June 4th, Bush signed a large-scale financial rescue plan.
US President Bush signed a financial rescue plan totaling 700 billion US dollars. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Henry Merritt Paulson said on the same day that the plan will be implemented as soon as possible. On June 3rd, 2008, 10, Wells Fargo snapped up Wachovia from Citigroup.
Wells Fargo announced on the 3rd that it will acquire Wachovia Bank for a total price of US$ 65,438+0,565,438+0 billion.
In response to the financial crisis and global layoffs, IT companies have turned to emerging markets. According to the latest statistics, the "layoffs" movement has been fierce for more than a month. Since mid-September, only American IT companies have announced that they will lay off 19683 people, which does not include the 246,000 people who will be laid off after the merger of HP and EDS, an IT outsourcing service provider. But in all the layoffs, the five major companies accounted for 90%.
Vietnam's financial crisis is the same as that of 1 1 years ago: inflation is as high as 25.2%, trade deficit and fiscal deficit are expanding, and foreign debt is too large, exposing the country's monetary system to great risks.
New york, 65438+24th1Oct Xinhua News Agency: As investors' fears that the global economy may fall into recession offset the news that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production, international oil prices fell sharply by more than 7% after the opening on 24th.
10 10 17, Mervyn's, a California department store chain that has filed for bankruptcy protection, announced that it will close the remaining 149 stores before the end of the year, and its stores will start selling goods.
The Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on China's Economy
First, it is the huge debts of American households that have absorbed China's expanding production capacity.
The American financial crisis will first bring psychological impact. This crisis will inevitably create a pessimistic atmosphere in China's capital market. The assets of these financial institutions held by China will shrink, and overseas investors may also sell China's assets in large quantities to save themselves at home, thus putting downward pressure on China's capital market. But more importantly, China's economy is highly extroverted, and its total import and export value exceeds 60% of GDP. In the past, it was precisely because Americans borrowed money for consumption that they digested China's excess capacity, thus making American finance and China create a double harvest. The current financial collapse in the United States will inevitably end the consumption pattern of Americans borrowing money, and China's manufacturing industry will also be affected.
Second, China's solution to the problem points to a cliche-expanding domestic demand.
We don't need to repeat the cliche that the whole world envies-China has great potential for domestic demand. It is not difficult to make a big calculation: as long as domestic demand is greatly expanded and a part of the huge manufacturing capacity serving external demand is transferred to China in recent years, China's economy will not only continue to grow at a high speed, but also make up for the shortage of the global economy.
Thirdly, there is only one really difficult question: how to release the potential of domestic demand in China?
The so-called insufficient domestic demand is mainly the problem of national income distribution. The government collects one-third of GDP wealth, and the proportion of residents' income is too low. How can China's consumption rate not go on? Secondly, reform, improving economic efficiency, improving fiscal revenue and expenditure, financial capital policy control, government-controlled price system and many other inefficient places, such as reducing import taxes and fees, opening up private financial services, reforming land acquisition system, opening up grain exports, and public bidding for mining rights, will certainly promote economic growth ... (According to Tencent Finance)
A Summary of Experts' Views on the 2008 Financial Crisis
Li Daokui: There will be a global financial crisis in the next two years.
The dark clouds of the global financial crisis are gathering, and in the next two years, there will be a new financial crisis around the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which brings challenges and new opportunities to the development of China.
Tao Dong: China has not been greatly affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.
Tao Dong said that fundamentally speaking, China is the only country that has not been affected by the subprime mortgage crisis on a large scale. Although capital account control has saved China again, it is inevitable that China will open its finance and capital account after its economy develops to a certain extent. ...
Shen Yin countries: The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is limited.
Although due to the intervention of central banks, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was once eased. However, with the further exposure of some problems in recent days, the situation seems to have become more serious, and the overseas securities market has also undergone drastic adjustments. ...
Citi Economist: The subprime mortgage crisis has no direct impact on China.
If the United States enters a depression, it is estimated that the American economy will slow down 1% and China's economic growth will slow down 1.3%. The United States may cut interest rates by 0.25% in the second half of the year, and may continue to cut interest rates 1 or twice next year, and finally reach the neutral interest rate level of 4.5% by the end of 2008. ...
Ba Shusong: The subprime mortgage crisis has little impact on the China stock market.
Regarding the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the China stock market, Ba Shusong thinks that the impact is not significant. He believes that the subprime mortgage crisis has a greater psychological impact on the China stock market, and its direct contact channel is that companies listed in the two places may have price disputes. ...
Greenspan: The American financial crisis comes once in a century.
In an interview with NBC, Greenspan said that this is the worst financial crisis he has ever seen in his career, and it may last for a long time and continue to affect the real estate prices in the United States.
Rogers: I don't think the financial crisis will bottom out in my lifetime.
Rogers said that this is a long road. In fact, this seems to be something we will never see in our lifetime. He said: "Bernanke and his partners have begun to rescue, which may temporarily cover up the problem." Of course, I don't know how long they can cover up, and then the disaster will continue. "
Bernanke proposed to transfer the bad assets of financial companies.
Bernanke proposed to transfer the non-performing assets in the balance sheets of American financial companies to a new institution. This plan is another effort by Paulson and Bernanke, who failed to restore confidence in the financial and real estate markets.
Paulson: I have confidence in the flexibility of the US financial market.
Paulson said that a healthy capital market is the main skeleton of a vibrant American economy and the key to the American economy and American family welfare. We should have confidence in the flexibility of American financial capital market.
Kahn: The economy will recover next year.
Kahn said that although the recent financial turmoil in the United States has increased the potential threat to economic development, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will gradually recover in 2009. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth rate will drop to about 4% in 2008, which will be reflected in the economic slowdown of the United States, Europe and Japan, and the economic growth of most emerging market countries and developing countries will slow down.
Soros: Britain is next.
In an interview with BBC reporter, Soros expressed his views on Lehman Brothers' application for bankruptcy protection and the plight of American International Group (AIG). He said: "I'm worried that, to a certain extent, we are still in the process of entering the storm, not coming out of it."
Bill Gates: The financial crisis may last for two or three years.
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft and president of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, said on Wednesday that it may take two to three years for the United States to recover from the current economic crisis.
Gates said that the global economic growth was very good for most of the 1990s and nearly 65,438+00 years, and now the American economy has suffered a little setback, which may last for two to three years.
In response to the financial crisis, a series of national initiatives
China lowered the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans 10, 10, and temporarily exempted the personal savings deposit interest tax from October 9th.
The US Federal Reserve and five other central banks cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve's $900 billion blood transfusion banking system.
The European Union will cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and countries will increase the minimum deposit guarantee amount. The European Central Bank will increase its capital injection into the financial system.
Britain announced that the new rescue plan will cost 500 billion pounds.
The Japanese Prime Minister ordered the formulation of additional economic measures, and the Bank of Japan injected capital into the money market three times a day.
Russia injected 950 billion rubles into banks on a large scale, and Russia also set new price limits on the stock market.
The Australian central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis points, the highest in 16 years.
Spain has set up a fund of 30 billion euros to support the bank.
The Netherlands raised the amount of guarantee for its bank deposit account to more than 654.38 million euros.
Germany The German government has introduced many emergency measures.
Behind the scenes of the 2008 financial crisis
The culprit: investors who spend too much money.
It is the infinite expansion of consumption and overdraft desire that is behind the scenes. The United States relies on the bubble in the capital market to maintain consumers' overdraft behavior, and the market has been enlarged uncontrollably.
The second culprit: financial practitioners with bulging pockets
Wall Street, under the banner of financial innovation, launched various high-risk financial products and continuously expanded the market, resulting in a growing bubble.
The third culprit: regulators who turn a blind eye.
The loose regulatory system in the United States has also led to this storm to a certain extent, and the entire regulatory system has obviously failed to keep up with the speed of financial innovation.
The fourth culprit: obedient Asian countries
The traditional economic growth model of Asian countries has given the United States unlimited motivation to implement loose monetary policy, transport liquidity and make it have sufficient liquidity.
Progress of the 2008 financial crisis
2008- 10: Six global central banks cut interest rates jointly.
Britain saved the market with 500 billion pounds.
The U.S. bailout bill came into effect.
2008-09: Washington Mutual Bank closed down.
2008-09: The top five investment banks in the United States are all history.
2008-09: American International Group nationalized.
2008-09: Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch.
2008-09: Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.
2008-09: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac crisis, and the US government intervened.
March 2008: Bear Stearns dies suddenly.
2008-03: The Federal Reserve used $200 billion to rescue the market.
2008-0 1: Global financial institutions suffered huge losses in succession.
2007-08: Most global stock indexes fell.
2007-08: The president of Bear Stearns resigned.
2007-07: Global financial market turmoil
2007-03: Financial companies are on the verge of bankruptcy in the new century.
2007-02: Mortgage risks surfaced.