1. Broad money increased by 9.8%
1 At the end of the year, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243 1 trillion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 6 1.39 trillion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year. Excluding the influence of the Spring Festival, M 1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) 10.62 trillion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year. Net cash investment in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.
Two. June 5,438+10 RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion.
1 At the end of the year, the balance of this loan was 202.59 trillion yuan, up 1 1.2% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 196.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of1.5%, and the growth rate was 0. 1 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively.
In June 5438+ 10, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, the highest point in a single month, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 654.38+0006 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Enterprise (institution) loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.0 1 trillion yuan, medium-and long-term loans increased by 2. 1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 1.788 billion yuan; Loans from non-banking financial institutions decreased by141700 million yuan.
65438+1At the end of October, the loan balance was 930.8 billion US dollars, up 2% year-on-year. On June 5,438+10, the loan increased by 18 1 billion dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9 billion dollars.
Three. 5438+ 10 RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion in June.
1 At the end of the year, the balance of this deposit was 242.6 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of the month was 236.07 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0. 1 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively.
In June 5438+ 10, RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 262.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 54 1 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 584.9 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions decreased by 1.836 billion yuan.
1 At the end of the year, the balance of deposits was $65,438 +0.02 trillion, up 9% year-on-year. In June, 5438+ 10, deposits increased by 27.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8 billion US dollars.
In April and June, the monthly weighted average interest rate of RMB interbank lending in 5438+ 10 was 2.0 1%, and the monthly weighted average interest rate of pledged bond repurchase was 2.04%.
On June 5438+ 10, the inter-bank RMB market traded a total of 132.45 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 6.3 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, the average daily turnover of interbank lending increased by 9.3% year-on-year, the average daily turnover of cash bonds increased by 22.9% year-on-year, and the average daily turnover of pledged repo increased by 18.2% year-on-year.
In June, the weighted average interbank lending rate of 5438+ 10 was 2.0 1%, which was 0.0 1 percentage point lower than that of last month and 0.23 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year, mainly due to the low overnight lending rate of 1 at the beginning of last June. Excluding this factor, the interbank lending rate 1 in June was 0.02 percentage points lower than that in the same period last year. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repo is 2.04%, which is 0.05 and 0.03 percentage points lower than that of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
5. RMB settlement business of cross-border trade in the month was 726,543.8+0.2 billion yuan, and RMB settlement business of direct investment was 478.6 billion yuan.
In the month of 5438+ 10, the cross-border trade in goods, services and other current accounts, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment settled in RMB were 543.6 billion yuan, 654.38+0776 billion yuan, 654.38+0365 billion yuan and 342.65438 billion yuan respectively.
(1) Before the Spring Festival, due to the centralized payment of wages and benefits by enterprises, the company's current deposits were converted into personal deposits, resulting in a significant decrease in M 1. The last working day before the Spring Festival in 2022 is 65438+1October 30th, and 202 1 is1February.
Average housing loan balance
The average housing loan balance is 18.9 trillion yuan.
At the end of 2022, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.69 trillion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of the third quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year. The balance of individual housing loans was 38.8 trillion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
On February 3, 2022, the People's Bank of China released a statistical report on the loan investment of financial institutions in the fourth quarter, showing that at the end of 2022, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 2 13.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of1.1%; In the whole year, RMB loans increased by 2 1.3 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.36 trillion yuan.
_ _ Among them, the growth rate of real estate loans slowed down and the growth rate of real estate development loans increased. The data shows that at the end of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53./kloc-0.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.438+0.5%, which was 6.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of last year. The annual increase was 72 13 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4% of the increase in various loans in the same period.
_ _ At the end of 2022, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.69 trillion yuan, up by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of the third quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year. The balance of individual housing loans was 38.8 trillion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
_ _ At the same time, the growth rate of residents' business loans continued to rise, while the growth rate of residents' consumer loans declined. At the end of 2022, the balance of household loans was 74.94 trillion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 65,438+0.8 percentage points lower than that at the end of the third quarter and 7.65,438+0 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year. The annual increase was 3.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09 trillion yuan.
_ _ At the end of 2022, the balance of our operating loans was 18.9 trillion yuan, up by 16.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the third quarter and 2.6 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year; The annual increase was 2.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 79.3 billion yuan. The balance of consumer loans (excluding personal housing loans) was 17.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4. 1%, and the growth rate was 1.3 percentage points lower than that at the end of the third quarter and 5.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year. The annual increase was 675.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 764.6 billion yuan. At the end of the second quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 206.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.2%.
In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 56,264.2 billion yuan. At the end of the first quarter, the leverage ratio of China's residential sector was 62. 1%.
We can draw two messages from it:
1. The proportion of household loans to total loans is about 35.5 1%.
2. The leverage ratio of residents is the ratio of total liabilities of residents' departments to GDP. 62. 1% means that the total debt of residents accounts for more than 60% of GDP.
The International Monetary Fund believes that the leverage ratio of residents exceeding 65% will affect financial stability. At present, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents has approached or even exceeded.
Residents' liabilities are mainly mortgages.
According to the data of the central bank, the balance of individual housing loans was 38.86 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5. 1 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
Overall, this growth rate is higher than the GDP growth rate, but lower than the previous mortgage growth rate. The main reasons are:
1. At present, the debt ratio of residents is at a high level, and there is limited room for further increase.
2. The property market is relatively cold, house prices are adjusted back, and residents' enthusiasm for buying a house is declining.
Central bank data also shows that:
At the end of the second quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53. 1 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which was 3.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of last year. Among them, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.49 trillion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1. 1 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
Real estate loans include development loans and mortgage loans. In the last year or two, due to the occasional liquidity crisis of housing enterprises and the impact of the cold winter in the property market, the funds obtained by housing enterprises from banks have decreased significantly.
At the meeting of the Political Bureau on July 28th, it was mentioned that to stabilize the real estate market, we should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation. Due to the city's policy, make full use of the policy toolbox, support the demand for rigid and improved housing, compact the responsibility of local governments, ensure the delivery of buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission also made a statement: support local governments to do a good job of "guaranteeing buildings and handing over houses" and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
It can be expected that the financing of housing enterprises should be improved. After all, the property market is too important, not only involving people's livelihood, but also affecting the overall economic stability.
In the first quarter of 2022, the total amount of mortgage in China reached 53 trillion yuan, and the per capita mortgage debt was 1.47 million yuan. What does this mean?
At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total debt of China residents exceeded 200 trillion yuan, the per capita debt was 1.47 million, and the national savings rate dropped from 5 1.8% to 45%.
The total market value of real estate in China is in the order of 400-500 trillion, so let's calculate it as 450 trillion. The total mortgage loan of 53 trillion yuan is only 12%.
So, can young people with debts bear the future of real estate?
The mortgage problem is not today's problem, but the biggest problem that has plagued many people for a long time. In the context of the epidemic, it will soon become a systematic problem.
Under the influence of the epidemic, many people's income has been greatly affected, but the mortgage debt has not decreased, and many people's repayment is unpredictable, which has affected their reputation. Not to mention those who are unemployed.
In the past five years, the growth rate was lower than double digits for the first time. People really can't afford it and have no money! At present, the leverage ratio of residents has been at a high level of 60% in the last three years, and it can't go up! Since last year, the central bank has continuously lowered RRR and cut interest rates. Since last year, almost all cities except first-tier cities have liberalized their regulation. Not only that, they have even started, such as 20% down payment, children buying a house, using their parents' provident fund loans, deed tax reduction and so on. However, there is still no mortgage data.
Since 2000, China has been the largest saver in the world. In eight years, the savings rate rose from 32% to 52%, while the world savings rate was 27% in the same period, almost twice the world average. After the financial crisis in 2008, it fell all the way, and it was 44% in 2020. Although it is still higher than the world level, the household debt ratio has soared from 18% to 56%. At present, the total debt of China people is 20 billion, and the per capita debt is 1.47 million.
Look at the mortgage situation in recent years.
In the first quarter of 20 18, the mortgage balance was 34 trillion, up 20.3% year-on-year.
20 19 The balance of mortgage in the first quarter was 40 trillion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2020, the mortgage balance was 46 trillion, up 13.9% year-on-year.
202 1 the balance of mortgage in the first quarter was 50 trillion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2022, the balance of mortgage loans was 53 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6%.
According to the survey data of 30,000 urban residents by the central bank, the average household debt ratio is 57%, of which 77% have mortgages, accounting for 75% of the total liabilities.
Look at reality through data. 70% of China residents' debts are concentrated on mortgage. The pressure of mortgage repayment is too great, especially the impact of the epidemic in the past two years. Everyone is tight with their wallets and dare not spend a penny. Children's education expenses and medical expenses are both big expenditure items. A broken income means a broken cash flow, which means that your house has become an auction house. Became an employee of the bank.
It is even more difficult for young people who have not bought a house. I'm afraid the idea of buying a house is difficult to realize. Nowadays, young people dare not even think about it without the help of their families. If young people don't take over, how can house prices rise? How much is this house? Even if it rises, it is also the core area of first-tier cities. This is beyond the reach of ordinary people and they dare not even think about it.
What is the significance of per capita debt? Actually, it doesn't mean much. At present, the supply of houses still exceeds demand, mainly because the price is too high. Whether to buy a house or not, young people are not so persistent now. It is most important to have a stable job and a salary. National real estate regulation is mainly structural regulation.