First of all, the mint market has been depressed for eight years.
From the end of 1996 to the beginning of 1997, the mint oil market was the most brilliant period, and the mint oil market soared to the sky, reaching the sky-high price in 500 yuan. Affected by this, mint production has developed rapidly. Almost every household in Taihe County, Anhui Province grows mint. The highest year 1997, the county planted 280,000 mu, radiating to surrounding counties and cities such as Mizhou, Fuyang, Linquan, Jieshou, Yang Guo and Mengcheng, and radiating to Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Northeast China, Guangxi and Mengcheng. Mint is produced all over the country. The blind development of mint production eventually led to a serious oversupply in the market. It is estimated that the total output of peppermint oil in China at that time was about 30,000 tons, which was twice the annual total demand of peppermint oil in the world (the annual demand of peppermint oil in the world was 1.5 million tons). In this way, the market price of peppermint oil dropped in the second half of 1997, while the market price of peppermint oil fell again and again until the producers were unable to plant any more, thus making the market enter the period of inventory consumption. Since the second half of 1997, the mint oil market has been in a downturn for eight years. The blind development of production is the main reason for the eight-year downturn of peppermint oil market.
Second, the production status of the mint
Stimulated by the high price of 1997 mint oil market, the production of 1998 mint has developed rapidly. The planting area of mint in Taihe County of Anhui Province alone is 280,000 mu, and the total planting area in other producing areas such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places is also 250,000 mu, and the total national area should be 500,000-600,000 mu. After that, as the mint oil market went down year after year, the mint output also shrank year by year. By 2003, the planting area of mint in Taihe County had been reduced to 30,000 mu. In this year, Taihe County suffered a once-in-a-century flood disaster, and its output dropped sharply, with an average output of only 7 kg. The planting area of mint in other producing areas in China has also decreased as much as that in Taihe County. Except for small-scale planting in some producing areas, most farmers basically gave up planting, and mint production encountered an unprecedented trough. However, the market of peppermint oil is still hovering in the trough. Under the double blow of natural disasters and market, mint production suffered another setback in 2004, when the planting area of mint in Taihe County, Anhui Province was reduced to about 5000 mu. According to the survey, except Daxin Town, Hongshan Town and Old County, other old producing areas, such as Niqiu, Hongshan, Fentai, Gong Ji and Yuan Qiang, are basically uninhabited. Except for a small area planted in some places, most other producing areas have disappeared in China. It is estimated that the largest planting area of mint in China this year is 1 1,000 mu. Affected by rising food prices, farmers can't stand the suffering of the market and mostly turn to food production. If the market situation of mint oil still does not improve, mint production may be extinct next year.
Third, why is mint production shrinking year after year?
In this paper, the production cost of mint is analyzed and compared with the benefit of grain production to find out the reason. The production cost of farmers planting mint is 669 yuan per mu, and if calculated at the current price, the cost is higher. The average yield of peppermint oil per mu is 10 kg, and the output value per mu is 700 yuan. Excluding the production cost, the net profit is only 3 1 yuan, which is basically unprofitable. Farmers can plant an acre of wheat or a season of corn after wheat. According to the yield of 400kg and the 0.4 yuan of 65438+ per kg, the total income of one season of wheat and one season of corn per mu is 1 120 yuan. Compared with planting mint, it can earn more 420 yuan per mu, and planting grain has the advantages of less investment, quick effect and saving labor and time. With such an unbalanced output, who wants to develop mint production?
Four. Market inventory and demand
According to the figures provided by relevant parties, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the total annual demand of peppermint oil in China was 3,000 tons, and it was increasing at the rate of 10%. At present, the demand for peppermint oil is at least 5000 tons. The global demand for peppermint oil exceeds 654.38 million+500 million tons. As an important pharmaceutical and chemical raw material, peppermint oil is widely used in medicine, food, health care, chemical industry and other industries, and its development momentum is getting stronger and stronger, and the market demand is increasing year by year. With the growth of demand, the social stock of peppermint oil is decreasing year by year. 198 The national mint oil inventory is over 60,000 tons. Later, due to successive years of production reduction, the social stock of peppermint oil gradually decreased. By August, 2004, the total stock of peppermint oil in China had dropped to 2,000 tons. Among them, the main producing area of Anhui Taihe is 750 tons (including surrounding counties and cities), and the total inventory of other producing areas is 750 tons. The total inventory of menthol processing plants and business households is 500 tons. Moreover, there is still a large part of the stock, and farmers and operators are unwilling to sell it at the current price. It can be seen that the current inventory has reached the point where the supply is seriously in short supply. If the market of peppermint oil can't afford it, there will be no development of peppermint production, and the future market supply will be worrying.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) foreign trade export situation
There are three main mint producing and exporting countries in the world: China, India and Brazil. In the world mint oil market, the three countries are in a dominant position in the international market, each accounting for one-third of the market. However, in terms of quality and fragrance, peppermint oil produced in China is the best, which is favored by the international market and the price is higher than that of the other two countries. In this way, the richness of mint in the three countries directly affects the mint oil market in the international market. For example, 1997 peppermint oil market soared, which was the direct result of the reduction of peppermint production in India due to floods and the reduction of peppermint production in China for three consecutive years. Nowadays, while the mint market in China has been in a long-term downturn and the output has shrunk seriously, the mint output in India and Brazil has also been impacted by the market. This year, Indian mint was flooded again, and the market supply was obviously tight. This has increased the export of peppermint oil and menthol in China. Recently, Japanese and Korean businessmen came to China to inspect mint production and market, and signed a large number of orders, which aggravated the shortage of peppermint oil and menthol in China, and sometimes even out of stock, especially menthol. This led to an increase in the menthol market. Now the price of menthol has risen from 85 thousand yuan per ton in June to 6.5438+0.5 thousand yuan in September. The magnitude and speed of the increase were unexpected. This is mainly due to the downturn of mint oil market in recent years, the output has shrunk seriously, the inventory has decreased, producers are reluctant to sell, and the supply is difficult to organize, which has affected the refining progress of menthol. Therefore, some merchants in China adopt the method of importing brain powder from India and mixing it with Chinese peppermint oil to extract menthol to meet the market demand. This shows the tension of peppermint oil and menthol in the international market.
Current market situation of intransitive verbs
1997 The first half of the year was the most brilliant period in the history of peppermint oil market. Due to the strong demand in the international market, the production of mint in China has been reduced for three years in a row, and the mint in India has been hit by floods, artificial speculation and other factors. The mint oil market has soared from 60-70 yuan, a new product, in/kloc-0 in 1996 to 500 yuan in early/kloc-0 in 1997. The purchase price of the place of origin is as high as 450 yuan. Stimulated by high prices, mint production developed rapidly, which eventually led to overproduction and market decline. After 1997 produced new products, the mint oil market fell to 150 yuan. After that, 140 yuan, 120 yuan, 100 yuan, 80 yuan fell all the way and finally fell to the bottom of 60 yuan. With the decline of peppermint oil market, the output shrinks and the inventory is consumed. Finally, in 2002, the mint oil market began to rebound. Prices rose from 60 yuan to 65 yuan. June 2003-70 yuan; In 2004,10-September was 70- 120 yuan, and maintained a good upward trend. However, compared with the cultivation of grain and other cash crops, this price is still low. If its price can't continue to rise to the price above 120 yuan, it will be difficult to mobilize the enthusiasm of producers and the mint output will continue to shrink.
Seven, the mentality of production and operators
The author communicated with local growers when investigating mint production in mint producing areas. When asked whether to continue planting mint next year, everyone almost agreed: no, farmers are the most practical. When the price of grain rises, the income from planting an acre of grain is more than 400 yuan higher than that from planting an acre of mint, planting grain instead of mint is the best choice for most farmers. Years of trough operation and years of low prices have killed the will of producers. Most producers lamented the helplessness of the market and finally chose to give up. However, some people still have high hopes for the market, and they will hoard their own peppermint oil for the market to change and make a comeback. For operators, during the period of great development of mint production 1997-2000, the market towns in various producing areas were full of operators who bought mint oil. With the decline of peppermint oil market, most of these business operators lose money or are unprofitable, and most of them change careers or have other jobs. The once prosperous peppermint oil trading scene disappeared. The profit rate of individual remaining peppermint oil operators is only 1-2%. The depressed market is testing the endurance of operators and killing their will. These remaining operators have a firm belief: the mint oil market will definitely make a comeback! They are excited about the recent market rise, but they are worried about the increasing difficulty in organizing supply.
Eight, market trend analysis
In the past six months of market research, I have a deeper understanding of the market prospect of peppermint oil. With the deepening of the investigation, it is increasingly felt that the mint oil market is in the dark period before dawn, and the dawn will eventually come. The mystery of the skyrocketing peppermint oil market has also been solved: shrinking output, weak inventory, strong demand and rising popularity are the fundamental reasons for the skyrocketing peppermint oil market.
What will be the trend of mint oil market in the future? According to the investigation and forecast, the market trend of peppermint oil is roughly as follows. The first step:10 July-June, peppermint oil will enter a new period of production, and its price should run between 70- 100 yuan, up 10-20 yuan over the same period last year, which belongs to the initial stage of the market. During this period, affected by factors such as buying fertilizer in autumn, the price increase will not be too big, but the market has already started. Step 2: 10 to the Spring Festival is the price regression period. The market price of peppermint oil must reach the price per kilogram 120 yuan to realize its own value, otherwise it may be rare or extinct. Step 3: Stimulate the delivery period from the Spring Festival to May next year. During this period, its price will exceed its value and go to 120- 150 yuan, because its market price has not reached 120 yuan, so it is better to grow grain; If it doesn't reach or exceed 150 yuan, it won't motivate the producers. Step 4: Close to the historical market peak. If the current price is compared with the price level of 1997, it is not excluded that the market may reach or exceed the historical high price of peppermint oil 500 yuan 1997, but a large amount of funds must be added to the hype, otherwise the process cannot be completed.
If the market of peppermint oil does not follow the above route, if the market of peppermint oil still fluctuates at the price of 100- 120 yuan from June this year to April next year, it will seriously affect the mint production next year. Maybe no one will develop mint production next year. This will pave the way for the skyrocketing mint oil market next year. If so, it will become a reality that the mint oil market will reach or surpass the 200 yuan mark next year.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that in the upward process of peppermint oil market, we should make a short pause every step, and then take a break before moving on. This is because in the process of promoting the market of peppermint oil, every time it reaches a higher level, some stocks of peppermint oil will be sold and flow in the market. Only when this part of peppermint oil is consumed by the market can its market continue to rise. Therefore, the future of peppermint oil market must be tortuous and difficult. The revived mint oil market, I wish you a good market!