An important support for rapid recovery and stable investment after the epidemic.
"Stability" is the "main theme" of the real estate market in 2020. In the face of the epidemic, the real estate market quickly recovered from the "frozen" state, and sales and investment went out of the "bottom" and out of the deep "V" trend. Commercial housing sales area, sales amount and real estate development investment all resumed positive growth in the second half of the year.
The property market transactions quickly picked up. 2020 10 to 65438+ in February, the sudden COVID-19 epidemic made the property market into a "frozen" state. Most developers suspend sales activities, and second-hand housing agents also stop business. In the first two months of 2020, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 39.9% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing decreased by 35.9% year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, Wuhan, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan and other 12 second-tier cities have no transactions, and 35 third-tier cities have no transactions over13. The real estate transaction volume in most cities in China has fallen to freezing point.
Since March 2020, with the epidemic gradually being effectively controlled, new house sales offices and intermediary stores have resumed business, and the property market has shown a warming trend. "After the epidemic, the Yangtze River Delta market took the lead in recovery, and the Pearl River Delta made efforts in the later period, and the market scale continued to grow." Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said. In the month of 65438+ 10, the sales area of commercial housing in China was the same as that in the same period of last year, and the residential sales area increased by 0.8%, which was the first time in this year. 1 1 month, the growth rate of commercial housing and residential sales area continued to expand. 1-1/month, the national commercial housing sales area1508.34 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of1.3%; Residential sales area increased by 1.9%.
"Real estate is a rapidly recovering industry in various fields." Feng Jun, president of China Real Estate Association, said that housing demand is plastic, and the consumption capacity of housing depends on the long-term income of residents. The unmet demand during the epidemic will be released later, so overall, the epidemic has little impact on the real estate market.
The month-on-month increase in house prices narrowed. Judging from the changes in house prices, from April 2020, with the recovery of the property market, the overall increase in house prices began to expand, and this situation continued until July. Since August, the month-on-month increase in sales prices of new commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in various cities has continued to narrow or remain flat. After combing the data, the reporter found that the sales price of new commercial housing in first, second and third tier cities dropped from 0.6%, 0.6% and 1% in August to 0.3%, 0. 1% and 0.2% in June. The price increase of second-hand houses decreased from 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.6% in August to 0.5%, 0.2% and 0.2%.
The fluctuation range of house prices is also narrowing: before 2020, the fluctuation range of commercial housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities is between-1%-2.0%, and in the same period of 20 19, it is between-1%-2.8%.
Ding Zuyu, CEO of Yiju Enterprise Group, believes that in the first half of the year, local regulatory policies were mainly stable and loose, and local governments actively pushed land, eased the pressure on enterprises to purchase land, relaxed the pre-sale conditions and simplified the examination and approval procedures, so there was a lot of room for supply-side policies. At the same time, the more relaxed mortgage policy is beneficial to buyers, and the backlog of housing demand in the early stage continues to be released, so it once showed an increasing trend. Since July 2020, hot cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Dongguan have successively introduced real estate control policies. For example, Shenzhen will extend the purchase period to three years, increase the down payment ratio of second homes, and increase the collection of transaction taxes.
"In cities where regulatory policies are tightened, the market is also hot, house prices have risen significantly, and there has been a hype atmosphere." China Merchants Securities believes that throughout the year, many governments have introduced real estate support policies to hedge the risks brought by the epidemic, reflecting that "stable land prices, stable housing prices and stable expectations" are bilateral interval management. This once again sends a signal to the market: the big framework of "not speculating in housing", "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations" will not change.
In addition, real estate is still an important support for stable investment. During the period of 1- 1 1 in 2020, the national investment in real estate development was12,949.2 billion yuan, up by 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage point higher than that of1-0/,which has maintained a positive growth trend for six consecutive months.
Judging from the investment in the three major areas, the growth rate of real estate development investment is obviously higher than that of infrastructure investment 1.0% and manufacturing investment -3.5%. "Real estate development investment data shows a good momentum of steady progress, but it has not yet reached the growth level of about 20 19 10%. With the gradual economic recovery, housing investment still has room for growth and remains the main engine for stable economic growth in 2020. " Wang Xiaoyu, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said.
Because urban policies are more flexible, unstable factors still exist.
In 2020, the regulation of local real estate will not be relaxed, and the positioning of "housing and not speculating" will remain unchanged. The China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other ministries and commissions have held many meetings to emphasize the continuity and stability of the property market regulation policy. Since July, the central government has held many meetings, emphasizing that real estate should not be used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. At the same time, maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies and accelerate the establishment of a long-term management system for real estate finance. In the second half of the year, the overall supervision of real estate finance showed a gradual tightening trend.
At the same time, under the guidance of "housing and not speculating", the policies of cities around the country are more flexible, and "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations" are basically realized. Since the second half of 2020, the real estate market in hot cities has cooled down, the phenomenon of grabbing houses by lottery has decreased, and the blind debt expansion of housing enterprises has eased. Lin Zhong, Chairman of Xuhui Holdings Board of Directors, believes that the era of soaring housing prices is gone forever. "The future house is a value-added product, but it is not a high-yield investment product."
However, the factors affecting the stability of the real estate market have not completely disappeared. First, the pressure of rising house prices still exists. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the national average land price in June 2020 was 6746 yuan/square meter +0- 1 1, up 22.5% year-on-year. Before 1 1 month, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the land transaction price increased by 16. 1% year-on-year. "One drop and one liter" indicates that house prices may be under upward pressure in the future. Some insiders believe that under the background of urbanization, the internal driving force of rising housing prices still exists, and it is difficult to completely lift the property of housing investment, so there is still upward pressure on housing prices this year.
Secondly, the risk of real estate asset bubble looms in some cities. Recently, due to the upside-down prices of new and second-hand houses in Shenzhen and other cities, the property market has experienced a "new fever", which has aroused concerns from all walks of life about the intensification of the property market bubble. At the same time, the impulse of various funds to enter the real estate sector is still strong, and "commercial loans" in some areas show signs of making a comeback, or disrupting the housing and financial markets. Some property buyers have reported that they have received information from many banks in recent months and can apply for real estate mortgage loans. The annualized interest rate is 3.75%, which is much lower than the mortgage interest rate. "If you buy a house, you will definitely not use your own money. Now the interest rate of' operating loans' is so low. " A person in charge of the company said.
Third, it is difficult to change the path dependence of land finance. It is difficult to completely change the situation that local development depends on real estate in a short time. It is not excluded that some local governments still use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy and increase local fiscal revenue by pushing up land prices. According to the analysis of CITIC Securities Research Department, in the first three quarters of 2020, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 4,936 billion yuan, up by 10.3% year-on-year, and the annual growth rate of land transfer fees may be higher than that in the first three quarters. "By summarizing the government fund income plans of local governments, we found that even if the impact of the epidemic is not fully manifested, local governments need more land transfer fees."
202 1 the "string" of supervision needs to be tightened at all times.
In 2020, the overall real estate market will remain stable, but there are many "undercurrents" in the market, and the foundation for stable and healthy development still needs to be consolidated together.
The regulation of hot cities cannot be relaxed. Under the background of new urbanization, population, land and other key elements will accelerate to gather in urban agglomerations and central cities. It is noteworthy that the scale of commercial housing market in key cities has basically recovered, and residential sales prices in some cities have shown signs of rising too fast, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. According to the statistics of China Index Academy, in June, 2020, the cumulative increase of new residential prices in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta was +0- 1 1, which was significantly higher than the same period of last year, and the cumulative increase in the Yangtze River Delta was the highest level in the same period of nearly four years. In terms of land market, in 2020, the amount of land pushed by first-tier cities and the amount of high-quality plots will increase, leading to a structural increase in floor prices.
Ding Zuyu said that from the local auction market, urban differentiation is also very obvious. The top 30 cities in terms of land transaction amount account for half of the total land transactions in all cities, accounting for 29% of the transaction area. "2020 is the year with the most serious land transfer differentiation in the country in the past five years, and developers have invested 50% of their money in 30 cities."
In addition, it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of a long-term management mechanism for real estate finance. Guo Shuqing, secretary of the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China and chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, pointed out in an article that China's real estate-related loans account for 39% of banking loans, and a large number of bonds, equity, trusts and other funds have entered the real estate industry. It can be said that real estate is the biggest "grey rhinoceros" among the financial risks in China at this stage.
Ding Zuyu believes that the new "three red lines" financing regulations for real estate issued in August 2020 have greatly increased the financial pressure on housing enterprises. "Real estate depends on finance, but after the emergence of the' three red lines' policy, the financing flow and cash flow of housing enterprises may become negative, which is a huge challenge for all real estate enterprises. As a result, some enterprises have defaulted on bonds and credits. 202 1 the most difficult and biggest challenge for housing enterprises is the financial challenge. "
Many industry experts suggested that the long-term management mechanism of real estate finance should be accelerated, and the supervision of real estate finance should be strengthened to prevent the real estate market from being over-financialized. Cao Zhounan, chairman of the Blue-Green Twin Cities, believes that resolutely implementing the "three red lines" and other measures is conducive to maintaining the continuity and stability of national real estate regulation and control, and is an important measure to realize "housing and not speculating", make policy according to the city and ensure the smooth operation of the real estate market.
(The article is selected from the paper. com)