China has a large population base and is the most populous developing country in the world. On the vast land of 9.6 million square kilometers, there are 56 nationalities living in China. China's population problem, first of all, is that the population is too large and the population is growing too fast. At the end of 20001,the total population of China (excluding Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan Province Province) was12.76 million, accounting for 22% of the world's total population. Due to the large population base, despite the implementation of family planning, the annual net increase in population is still around130,000. At the same time, the population distribution is extremely uneven. 94% of the population lives in the southeast, which accounts for 43% of the country's total area. The rural population is about 63% (200 1), and the level of urbanization is low. The population of a country exceeds the total population of developed countries in the world (1990, the total population of developed countries is 816 million). Although the strict family planning policy is now implemented, there is still a net increase of10.4 million-10.5 billion people every year, that is, the population of a world power is increased every year. In the next 35 years, there are three main trends in China's population development: the total population will reach 654.38+0.6 billion; There are 8- 1 100 million laborers; There are 250 million elderly people. This constitutes a new feature of China's population development. Experts estimate that according to the current population growth trend in China, the fastest zero population growth will not be realized until the middle of this century. China's population problem is different from other countries in the world. A country has the double challenge of "too small a population". China has two "population bombs" on its head: a large population means a net increase of1400-150,000 people every year. The population is too small. First, there are too few high-quality talents. Second, "China women have so few children that they can no longer replace themselves". The huge population base and the annual growth of130,000 have obvious contradictions with economic and social development, resource utilization and environmental protection. China's cultivated land accounts for 7% of the world's cultivated land, with a per capita area of 0.078 hectares (1.996), which is a quarter of the world's per capita, and the per capita fresh water resources are only a quarter of the world's level. Over the past 40 years, the Chinese people have made remarkable achievements in economic construction and development, but due to the rapid population growth, the relevant index of national quality of life is still low (the per capita grain is less than 400 kilograms, the per capita living area in cities is 8. 1 square meter, and the number of hospital beds per thousand people in China is 2.34); Among 2 143 counties (including 427 county-level cities), there are 592 poverty-stricken counties with per capita income lower than that of 250 yuan (US$ 43); A quarter of the annual increase in national income is used to increase the population; At least 20 million people enter the working age every year, and the number of rural surplus labor force reaches more than 654.38 billion due to underemployment. All these have become the important reasons that restrict China's economic and social development, and affect the quality of national life and the improvement of population quality. (2) There are two reasons for the decline of population quality with low population quality: First, under the condition of strict birth control, the fertility rate in cities with high population quality declines, and rural areas with low population quality have more children, which may damage China's population quality in the long run; Second, the population policy mainly boils down to population control, and the population policy does not include education. This directly or indirectly leads to1800,000 illiterates and semi-illiterates among the population above 15 in China, accounting for 15.88% of the total population, making it the country with the largest illiteracy in the world. The problem also lies in the present teenagers and children born in the future. They are the labor force in the first half of 2 1 century, and the investment in education is insufficient. At present, the popularization rate of junior high school is only 68%, and 5 million school-age children cannot attend school because of poverty. Among the students, more than 4 million primary school students are lost every year, resulting in 2 million new illiterates every year. On the one hand, there is a serious surplus of ordinary labor in today's labor market, and there are a large number of laid-off and unemployed people; On the one hand, there is a serious shortage of high-quality managers and technicians, including skilled workers, and the latter problem is more prominent. In the product market, on the one hand, a large number of low value-added goods are seriously surplus; On the one hand, a large number of high value-added goods are heavily dependent on imports. Why can't we import equipment to produce goods that need to be imported in large quantities? Just because the level of our managers, technicians and workers can't meet the requirements. Therefore, the primary task to solve the employment problem at present is to increase high-quality talents. However, China's population development is entering a "post-demographic transition period", and China's population problem in the new century is not optimistic: the average education level of the population stays at the primary school level, with a gap of 50 million between men and women, and most of Beijing's labor force does not meet the requirements of emerging industries. Hou Yafei of Beijing Population Research Institute pointed out that the average education level of China population still stays at the primary school level; The proportion of people over the age of 25 who have received higher education is only one in fifty, far below the average level of one quarter in developed countries; Mental workers account for only one tenth of the employed population; Middle and senior human capital is in short supply. On the other hand, the school dropout rate and primary school dropout rate in China have increased. The high school enrollment rate of the population aged 20-24 in China is only 2%, while in India it is 10%, in Thailand it is 16%, and in South Korea it is 38%. (3) The aging population is getting more and more serious. The population over 60 years old in China has exceeded 10% of the total population, and the age structure of the population has entered an aging stage, which will increase at a faster rate. By 2065,438+05, the population over 60 will exceed 200 million, accounting for 65,438+04% of the total population. The characteristics of population aging in China are rapid aging development, large elderly population, imbalance between regions and advanced socio-economic development. These new features will bring great challenges to China's national economic and social development. When many developed countries entered the old-age countries, the per capita GNP was at least about $6,543.8+0 million, while when China entered the old-age countries, it was only about $6,543.8+0 million. Due to the large proportion of rural population and the large number of elderly people in rural areas, with the development of urbanization, surplus labor will migrate to cities, and rural aging will become more prominent. Aging presents the basic characteristics of "two highs, two majors and two lows", that is, fast speed, big age, big base, big difference, low socialization of community pension and low awareness of social pension. The corresponding support problems, the aging of the labor force population and the increase of the dependency ratio will all become problems that must be solved. It can be seen that the burden of family pension is increasing. The proportion (%) of the elderly population (10,000 people) over 60 years old to the total population and the elderly dependency ratio (%) were actually predicted in the trial year. 1953 4154 7.313%1982 7664 7.6199411700 9.815. Due to the relatively slow economic development, weak foundation of family planning work, insufficient investment and other factors, the population and scale of the western region still maintain a strong growth momentum, with high maternal and infant mortality and birth defects, and low cultural quality of the population. At the same time, there are tens of millions of people in China who have not been lifted out of poverty, mainly in the west. The population problem is not only one of the key problems that must be solved in implementing the strategy of developing the western region, but also a big problem related to the development of the national economy. The main problems are: 1, and the number of ethnic minorities is increasing rapidly. The population growth in the western region is very fast, with the average growth rate of 1990- 198 reaching 14.48‰. The provinces (regions) whose average population growth rate is higher than the national level include all provinces (regions) in the western region except Chongqing, Sichuan and Shaanxi. 2. Low cultural quality has restricted the great economic and social development in the western region. Adult literacy rate (1997): Chongqing 83. 18%, Sichuan 82.00%, Guizhou 74. 12%, Yunnan 74.48%, Tibet 45.94%, Shaanxi 83.66% and Gansu Qinghai 73.23%. The highest adult literacy rate in China is 92.36% in Beijing and the lowest in Tibet. 3. Health quality needs to be improved. Take the average life expectancy (200 1 year) as an example: Chongqing people are 66.33 years old, Sichuan people are 66.33 years old, Guizhou people are 64.29 years old, Yunnan people are 63.49 years old, Tibetans are 59.64 years old, Shaanxi people are 67.40 years old, Gansu people are 67.24 years old, Qinghai people are 60.57 years old, and Ningxia people are 74.666. The surplus labor force existing in both urban and rural areas is the second double challenge of China population problem. At present, there are 200 million surplus laborers in rural areas, 5.25 million registered unemployed people in cities and towns, and 20 million to 30 million hidden unemployed people. It is estimated that 30 million people (those who can work) may be laid off in the next five years. At the same time, there is also the problem of gender structure, and the number of men is as high as 50 million compared with women. Second, the solution strategy China's population problem is currently centered on population control. But population is related to other problems. Therefore, it must be considered comprehensively and solved as a whole. While controlling population, we should pay attention to improving population quality and balancing population structure. It can be said that the fundamental way to solve the population problem is to develop the economy, and more importantly, to establish an effective and operable operating mechanism. The idea is: the state implements a strict macro-control mechanism for decision-making, and the specific work adopts a micro-control system combining publicity and education, interest orientation and service guarantee. (1) Improve the current fertility strategy 1 and establish a policy guarantee system to stabilize the low fertility level. When China enters the post-demographic transition period, the population policy and relevant social development policies should respond in time, strive to create a socio-economic condition, and promote the transformation of China from exogenous low fertility rate to endogenous low fertility rate. 2, adhere to the "people-oriented" and "system innovation", and implement the strategy of "stabilizing the east and promoting the west". The so-called "people-oriented" is to change the concept of simply pursuing population control goals and emphasize the scientific and comprehensive decision-making. This is not only the need to maintain a low fertility rate and ensure the realization of the strategic goal of population development, but also conducive to the optimization of population quality, structure and distribution. "Institutional innovation" refers to the formation of a unified, coordinated and efficient system and policy system at the legal level, policy level and work level, which is conducive to achieving the strategic goal of stabilizing the fertility rate. "Steady in the east and declining in the west" means that there is little room for fertility decline in the eastern region at the stage of stabilizing the low fertility level. On the other hand, the family planning work in some areas in the central and western regions is still rising, and the fertility level is relatively high, that is, the strategic focus of the eastern region is to stabilize the fertility rate, while the western region continues to reduce the fertility rate. "Stratified promotion" means promoting the reform and innovation of family planning management and services at different levels according to local conditions and the needs of the masses, improving the overall level of family planning work in the country and ensuring the realization of the goal of stabilizing the low fertility level. 3. The strategic position of education is combined with the population development strategy. Population quality affects fertility will. With cultural knowledge, people can easily understand the basic national conditions and policies, accept new ideas, and have a high degree of consciousness. At the same time, they also want their children to be educated. If they have more children, it will increase the cost of raising them. This is why the urban population is more likely to accept the policy of one child for a couple. Therefore, the improvement of population quality can fundamentally help people change their fertility wishes. Macroscopically, it is conducive to population control in China, and more importantly, it is conducive to improving the level of family welfare, promoting the transformation of endogenous low fertility, and forming a material basis for stabilizing the low fertility level. This requires us to popularize education vigorously, combine education with population policy and continuously improve the quality of the population. For the western region, we should strengthen and improve population awareness, increase publicity and education of family planning work, and pay attention to the combination of technical services and poverty alleviation. Strengthen the implementation of rejuvenating the country through science and education, focusing on education and giving priority to education, so as to promote faster economic and social development in ethnic minority areas. At the same time, the relevant departments should set up scientific research projects for the western minority population and provide corresponding scientific research funds. (two) gradually establish and improve the social security system for the elderly, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of the elderly according to law. 1. The fundamental way to solve the problem of aging is to further develop the economy, enhance its affordability, and build a feasible pension model and pension system. Judging from the present situation of our country, we should adopt the principle of sharing the burden among the state, society and individuals. 2. To further establish and improve the social security system for the elderly in line with China's national conditions, especially in rural areas, we should pay attention to the following principles: (1) Proceed from reality, adjust measures to local conditions, actively and steadily, and do not engage in "one size fits all", but pay close attention to it as soon as possible and carry it out in a planned way. Generally speaking, we should start with endowment insurance and medical insurance, create conditions and gradually expand; In economically backward poverty-stricken areas, it is necessary to unify social insurance with disaster relief work, support poor households to participate in social insurance, and improve their ability to overcome disasters and get rid of poverty and become rich. (2) the basic principles of protecting the living ability that farmers need to solve most urgently. (3) Adhere to the principle of "national policy guidance, farmers' self-protection, supplemented by collective subsidies". (4) Adhere to the direction of social security management integrating agriculture, industry and commerce, and organize farmers to participate in social security as much as possible. (5) Establish personal accounts to ensure the preservation and appreciation of the fund. After the establishment of individual accounts, it is the core issue to determine the payment standard of security funds according to the total reserves of individual accounts. Establishing personal accounts is the direction of social security reform in China and the trend of social security reform in the world. No matter how much the collective subsidy is, whether there is any subsidy or not, together with the part paid by the individual, it is included in the individual account of the insured. This way gives farmers a sense of security and autonomy, which is conducive to mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers to participate in social security. 3. Accelerate the construction of a community-centered pension service system. The construction of this system should aim at meeting the actual needs of the elderly, and strengthen the construction of software and hardware such as disease care, life service, spiritual comfort, culture and sports, and the participation of the elderly in society around the requirements of the "Five Older Persons". 4. Establish and improve the legal system for the elderly and safeguard their legitimate rights and interests. On the basis of the existing Law on the Elderly, laws and regulations such as the Law on Health Care for the Elderly, the Law on the Participation of the Elderly in Society, and the Regulations on the Administration of Welfare Facilities for the Elderly have been formulated one after another to strengthen the construction of the pension system. 5. Improving the quality of life of the elderly in an all-round way should be carried out in a healthy aging environment. It is necessary to further implement the system of having fun, learning and doing something for the elderly. (3) Correctly guide population migration in the new period. This is because population migration has played an invaluable and positive role in the economic progress and social development of the whole country and region. The floating population with the characteristics of "age accumulation" has a dual role in the age structure of the place of emigration and the place of emigration: it plays the role of "cutting peaks and filling valleys and exchanging time for space"
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