For most domestic consumers, more than one month after the outbreak of the epidemic may be the most intensive period of their contact with unmanned information. During the period, more and more unmanned vehicles were put into various scenes all over the country to reduce the contact between people during the epidemic and alleviate the problem of tight transportation capacity. According to the incomplete statistics of Economic Observer, as of February 26th, at least three companies, such as Huawei, Jingdong Logistics, Meituan, Yiqing Innovation, Shen Hang Intelligent, Neolithic, etc. 13, have put unmanned vehicles into fighting the epidemic.
After the popularity of these unmanned vehicles on the Internet, unmanned driving has received more attention. On February 24th, the key policy of driverless development-smart car innovation and development strategy (hereinafter referred to as "strategy") was finally officially released after two years of external consultation. During the epidemic, unmanned vehicle owners were mainly low-speed unmanned delivery vehicles, while the strategies were mainly unmanned passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Although the application scenarios are different and the development stages are different, the underlying principles and components are almost the same.
Affected by the epidemic situation and strategy release, smart cars that have been sought after have set off another wave of enthusiasm in the capital market. During the period, many smart car concept stocks rose, and more than 20 stocks rose or even went up. In addition, there are many capital increase and investment cases to follow up. However, in the industry's view, although the epidemic has caused unmanned driving to become a hot spot in the short term, it is not enough to bring rapid progress to the whole industry. "Whether it is unmanned distribution or unmanned passenger cars, if it takes 10 years to enter the mature period, this epidemic will accelerate for one month, and finally it will follow its own industrial laws, but the psychological identity of consumers should be greatly accelerated." ? Cao He, president of All-China Auto Dealer Investment Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd. told the Economic Observer.
Some insiders believe that driverless driving is a hot spot for investment, and the epidemic will not have a substantial impact on this industry, but it will change the technical direction of some details. "Now the pain point of solving the big data analysis of urban distribution in an emergency is relatively large, and it is necessary to track and automatically analyze the flow of goods in real time. These vehicles can be unmanned next. As for manned unmanned driving, I think at least buses and the like will speed up the pilot. " Zhu Weihua, deputy secretary general of the Information Service Committee of China Automobile Association, told the Economic Observer.
Unmanned driving is still far away.
Unmanned distribution is not a new concept. During the SARS period in 2003, some robots were used in the disinfection of hospital wards and the transportation of medical equipment, but the technical maturity at that time was far less than now. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the wave of unmanned distribution has revived in recent years. In addition to Ali, JD.COM, Meituan, Suning and other e-commerce platforms, unmanned delivery services have been deployed one after another, and unmanned start-ups focusing on logistics such as Zhixingzhe, Candela and Neolithic have also emerged in large numbers.
In some closed parks, restaurants, hotels and other places, unmanned vehicles 20 18 have been applied. However, the sudden epidemic at the beginning of this year increased the demand for its application and enriched the scene. Compared with the previous closed park operation, many unmanned vehicles can drive on external roads this time. For example, the unmanned vehicle developed by Jingdong Logistics distributes medical materials to the Ninth Hospital of Wuhan, and the proportion of unmanned distribution is as high as 70%. Meituan unmanned vehicles deliver food to consumers who buy food online, and the order of "contactless delivery" is as high as 80%. In addition, unmanned vehicles are also used for indoor and outdoor disinfection, mail delivery, mask distribution, temperature measurement and other scenarios.
"In this epidemic, in some specific scenarios, automated logistics was tried for the first time, showing its unique value-non-contact, non-infection, eye-catching, and greatly demonstrating the potential value of intelligence." Mei Song Lin, a senior analyst in the automotive industry, told the Economic Observer. He believes that it is precisely because of this that it is of practical significance to vigorously promote autonomous driving and driverless driving in specific scenarios, such as high-risk environments, logistics fields (including cities and cities), and hospital vehicles.
A number of unmanned vehicle companies said that they will continue to launch vehicles in the next few months. For example, the relevant person in charge of JD.COM said that it will strive to put nearly 100 unmanned vehicles in Wuhan this year. Neolithic insiders also told the Economic Observer that the number of unmanned vehicles put into various parts of the country has been increasing. In addition to the direct increase in delivery, the industry believes that the application of epidemic period will enable unmanned vehicles to collect realistic information to the greatest extent and use the obtained big data to optimize algorithm services, which will accelerate the next large-scale expansion.
The surge in demand for unmanned delivery vehicles has led to changes in related smart driving concept stocks, including Zhejiang Shibao, Derun Electronics, Digital Source Technology and Wan 'an Technology. "The development of unmanned distribution is continuous, because the technical level and application scenarios are accelerating and have entered the stage of business model exploration. Whether there is an epidemic or not, it will develop. However, the epidemic has played a certain role in promoting. " Lu Wenliang, general manager of CCID Automotive Research Institute, told the Economic Observer.
However, unmanned distribution is not completely equivalent to unmanned driving, especially unmanned driving applied to open roads, which needs to deal with more complicated road conditions. This time, Huawei invested 5G unmanned vehicles for medical staff to pick up and drop off. This is one of the few unmanned applications of passenger cars during the epidemic. Traditional car companies, including new car manufacturers, actually do not involve unmanned vehicles, and their cars are still being tested in specific experimental areas.
Although many car companies switched to masks, disinfectant and even negative pressure ambulances during the epidemic, no car companies have announced the switch to unmanned delivery vehicles. "The technical difficulty of unmanned delivery vehicles is not cars, but unmanned technology. As long as you can get unmanned driving, you can find a car company to do OEM work, or you can find a low-speed electric vehicle company. It is meaningless for car companies to change production, and research and development is more important. " Lu Wenliang said.
Although there is no change in vehicle production, Mei Song Lin believes that the software and hardware upgrade and service maintenance of remote products in the epidemic also show the unique value of intelligent network connection, which will promote the research and development and application of related projects of vehicle enterprises, such as contactless online maintenance, contactless trunk delivery, human/vehicle health monitoring, voice authorization and so on. In addition, the short-term popularity has also made many suppliers feel that opportunities are approaching. "The rise of unmanned distribution will definitely promote the mass production and landing of autonomous driving, and will also promote our existing business." NavInfo insiders told the Economic Observer.
The elimination of industrial chain has intensified.
"The global epidemic may be lifted before the end of the year. During this period, the stimulus will always exist. " Mei Song Lin said that if this wave of assistance can promote the application of truly practical driverless cars in logistics, hospitals, public health and other fields, driverless cars will usher in a wave of development peaks. But unmanned driving is still suspected of overheating. In the end, there may be a situation of "more thunder and less rain", and it is impossible to continue to invest, and ultimately it is impossible to make products that can land. "To really make practical products, we need a protracted war, and we need to continue after the epidemic. Are investors who are entering the market now ready? " May Song Lin said.
From a realistic point of view, although the terminal market and the capital market have set off waves, autonomous driving has not yet reached the stage of large-scale commercialization. Compared with manned autonomous driving, commercial vehicles and low-speed delivery vehicles in a closed environment are considered to be the first commercial areas of unmanned driving. Before the outbreak, unmanned vehicles had been used in closed scenes, but after the outbreak, it was difficult for these unmanned vehicles to drive on external roads as during the epidemic. "Unmanned delivery vehicles are just on the road, but in principle it is illegal. Whether they are unmanned or not, they have no right of way. " An industry insider commented on the reporter of the Economic Observer.
The epidemic has also accelerated other adjustments in the industry. "The maturity of autonomous driving is hard to say. Some enterprises in the industrial chain, such as car networking enterprises, are struggling." According to an industry insider, in the field of autonomous driving, some enterprises are being hit by the epidemic. "There will be no epidemic, and the epidemic will only aggravate the already deteriorating situation." According to the above-mentioned insiders, these enterprises are basically entrepreneurial enterprises. However, in the case of budget cuts by car companies, procurement projects have been cut, and car companies tend to replace external procurement with internal research and development. "Most of these companies are startups, and investors have been unable to quit in the past 10 years, which is already a dead end." He said.
In fact, this kind of elimination within the autonomous driving industry is already obvious at 20 19. Roadstar.ai, a star startup company which was founded on 20 14 in 20 19 and focused on L4 autonomous driving, is on the verge of bankruptcy. Overseas, Drive.ai, a Silicon Valley self-driving startup founded on 20 15, was finally acquired by Apple due to insufficient funds and employee turnover. In addition, Oryx, an Israeli lidar sensor technology company established in 2009? Vision also announced the closure because the market profit node was less than expected.
In the field of car networking closely related to autonomous driving, a source told the Economic Observer that the domestic startup Taber has laid off 400 people, and Che Yin Smart has stopped paying wages since the beginning of the year. "There is no money, but the popularity of car networking is something this year and next. Many car companies are seeking to do it themselves and not give suppliers opportunities. " An industry insider pointed out. In the field of autonomous driving, car companies actively seek independent research and development to avoid being overhead by Internet companies and losing their independent development rights; Traditional parts giants are also accelerating the transformation layout to avoid being subverted by new entrants.
Compared with start-ups with weak financial strength, car companies, parts and large Internet companies are the players with strong financial resources. Now large enterprises are seeking to acquire some entrepreneurial companies with innovative technologies, while small enterprises are looking for the shade of "big trees". After the epidemic continued to stimulate and the "strategy" was released, on February 26, China's autonomous driving industry ushered in two investment cases: Bosch Group invested in Shi Yu Technology; Toyota also invested $400 million in Pony.ai In the protracted war of autonomous driving, the merger and elimination in the industrial chain is accelerating.
National goal setting?
Despite the repeated industrial waves, intelligent driving technology has long been included in the national key plan, which is the general trend. On February 24th, official website, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that the NDRC, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other 1 1 ministries jointly released the innovative development strategy of smart cars. Compared with the draft for comment two years ago, the overall strategic framework of the official version has not changed much, and the text expression has been adjusted more. According to the Economic Observer, there are at least 20 more important adjustments.
Bosch showcases innovative technologies and cutting-edge solutions? Photo courtesy of enterprises
The strategy deleted the content of the development goal of smart cars in 2020 from the draft for comments, and formulated a new vision according to the industrial development: by 2025, the technical innovation, industrial ecology, infrastructure, laws and regulations, product supervision and network security system of standard smart cars in China have basically taken shape, and it is expected that the standard smart car system in China will be fully completed and improved from 2035 to 2050. Compared with the exposure draft, this strategy has delayed the formation of the standard system of smart cars in China for five years, which, in Zhongtai Securities's view, is more in line with the current industry situation and the law of industrial development.
In terms of specific development tasks, the smart car is strategically planned from six aspects: technological innovation, industrial ecology, infrastructure, regulations and standards, product supervision and network security. Compared with the exposure draft, the new emphasis is on smart transportation and smart city construction, promoting the pilot application of smart cars, promoting the collaborative construction of 5G and car networking, and proposing financial support and industrial investment guidance.
Smart car-related concept stocks rose immediately, and many listed companies responded according to their own business layout: Sheng Jun Electronics said that the company's valuation is expected to enjoy a premium; Due to the continuous rise of the stock price, Baolong Technology announced that the company's smart car related products currently have a small income, and there may be risks that the business project development is less than expected.
At present, many domestic car companies and Internet technology companies are deploying autonomous driving. Although many companies claim to have reached the L4 level of automatic driving, the real mass production technology is still at the L3 level, and most car companies still stay at the L2 level of assisted driving. Cao He believes that after the epidemic, the autonomous driving industry will eventually develop according to its own industrial laws. "The budding stage has passed, and the growing period will be longer. It is currently in the early stages of growth. " It's called. And according to CV? According to the data of Source, the amount and amount of financing in the field of autonomous driving increased sharply from 20 15 to 20 17, but decreased in 20 18 and 20 19.
"At present, China's autonomous driving technology has passed the' expected inflation period' and is slipping to the' bubble burst trough period'. In 2020, the investment and financing of autonomous driving will be more pragmatic, focusing on autonomous driving technologies and applications that can be put into production in the next few years. " Before the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of this year, Mei, a senior analyst in the automobile industry, told the Economic Observer. Lu Wenliang believes that after the launch of the strategy, the development direction of smart cars has also been determined, and the development will be accelerated in the later period, so capital should pay more attention to it.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.