At present, in order to fully implement the spirit of the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference, we should hold our ground, work hard on the accuracy of regulation, effectively control key risks, do a good job of "stabilizing" and take comprehensive measures to promote the real estate industry to enter a virtuous circle.
Adhere to the principle of "keeping the word steady" and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market
Since the beginning of this year, the national real estate market has been generally stable, but its downward trend needs to be highly concerned.
Judging from several key indicators of the real estate industry: investment in real estate development in the first quarter increased by 0.7% year-on-year; In March, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales price of commercial housing in each line city decreased or the increase rate dropped year-on-year; In the first quarter, the sales area of commercial housing decreased18.6% year-on-year; The land acquisition area decreased by 41.8% year-on-year; The funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 19.6% year-on-year.
Affected by factors such as the rebound of epidemic situation, the exposure of default debts of individual head housing enterprises, and the expected decline in personal income, the real estate market is expected to weaken, real estate sales decline, and corporate liquidity risks gather.
In terms of the main body of the real estate market, affected by the explosion of individual housing enterprises, financial institutions such as banks tightened their financing terminals and their sales declined. In some places, the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing is not standardized, multiple factors aggravate the liquidity risk of housing enterprises, and the microcirculation of the real estate market is "obstructed".
For a long time, people who just need and need improved housing have faced higher loan interest rates, and the standards for determining the qualification of the first suite in some places need to be improved. These factors have increased the purchase cost of property buyers, and aggravated the trend that housing consumers delay entering the market.
In 20021year, the added value of China's real estate industry accounted for 6.8% of GDP. The real estate industry is large in scale, long in chain and wide in scope, and plays a decisive role in the national economy. "It is necessary to effectively control key risks and keep the bottom line that systemic risks do not occur".
"Real estate can be both a' ballast stone' for economic and social development and a' risk source', which has an important systematic impact on economic and financial stability and risk prevention." Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, said.
Liu ling, a researcher at China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting released a positive signal of "keeping the word steady" for the development of the real estate market. While keeping the risk bottom line, all localities can formulate more targeted and flexible measures to improve the land transfer conditions, support the rigid demand for the first home purchase and reasonably improve the demand, and increase the supply of affordable rental housing for new citizens, young people and other groups to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Adhere to the "policy for the city" and guide the virtuous circle of the real estate market.
Lower the threshold of restricted purchases and sales, lower the down payment ratio, and lower the mortgage interest rate ... Since the beginning of this year, nearly 1 10 cities have introduced various real estate market regulation policies.
Experts said that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China put forward two "supports" and one "optimization", which fully released the policy signal of the city's policy.
China has a vast territory, the real estate market varies greatly from region to region, and the market differentiation is obvious. The contradiction between supply and demand in some hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has been outstanding for a long time, and the expectation of market rebound has gradually increased. However, some urban markets where the population continues to flow out are still operating at a low level.
In response to the new situation and challenges, all localities have focused on supporting the first set of rigid housing demand, reasonable improvement demand and rental housing demand. Relevant departments have introduced measures to promote a virtuous circle of the real estate market.
100 banks in more than one city have lowered their mortgage interest rates independently according to market changes and their own operating conditions; In some cities, families with two or three children buy the first set of housing, and the upper limit of housing provident fund loans is raised; Expand mortgage loans to support M&A loans from high-quality enterprises to risky enterprises, and allow debt extension; Standardize the supervision of pre-sale funds; Affordable rental housing loans are not included in centralized loan management. ...
Optimize the housing supply structure and vigorously develop rental housing. Accelerate the construction of affordable rental housing and develop the long-term rental housing market. According to relevant statistics, at present, the rented population in big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou accounts for more than 40% of the permanent population. In 2022, the total investment in affordable rental housing for capital construction in China is estimated to be about 850 billion yuan.
Fu, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, said that with the moderate liberalization of restrictions on purchases and sales, lowering the threshold for the use of provident funds, and speeding up the approval of housing loans, housing demand in some cities has been released, and the decline in sales area will be narrowed.
In the supervision of pre-sale funds, experts suggest that all localities should improve the supervision of pre-sale funds, clarify that pre-sale funds give priority to the payment of project funds, and allocate funds in strict accordance with project nodes to ensure timely completion and delivery. Prevent excessive increase of supervision quota due to risk prevention and slow down the progress of loan issuance.
"It is very important to promote the clearing of thunder-exploding housing enterprises as soon as possible and stabilize market expectations." Liu ling said that on the one hand, by lowering the interest rate of the first home loan and the taxes and fees for housing transactions, the ability of buyers to pay will be improved, reasonable housing consumption demand and improved demand will be boosted, and expected guidance will be strengthened; On the other hand, we must resolutely and forcefully deal with the risk of overdue delivery of real estate projects caused by the debt default of individual real estate enterprises, and take "ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood and stability" as the primary goal to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of buyers.
Adhere to the principle of "housing and not speculating" and stick to the bottom line of risk.
This time, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting reiterated that "houses are for living, not for speculation".
At present, the real estate market with a scale as high as 10 trillion yuan is undergoing deep adjustment. The underlying logic of "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" real estate development and operation formed in the past is changing, and the status of real estate industry as a basic livelihood industry led by high quality is being established and consolidated.
"A house is for living, not for speculation" has become a social cognition. This positioning has not wavered, and the strength has not been relaxed.
Feng Jun, president of China Real Estate Association, said that all localities should not leave this orientation and direction because of the city's policy, and should not rush to the hospital, and regard real estate as a tool and means to stimulate the economy in the short term. The key is to continue to implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, enhance accuracy and coordination, and strive to achieve the goals of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations.
The real estate industry bid farewell to the development and operation mode of high debt, high leverage and high turnover, and still has great potential after returning to the basic livelihood attributes and renting and purchasing simultaneously.
At present, the fundamentals of the real estate market in China have not changed, and the demand for housing is still strong. The urbanization rate of permanent residents in China is 63.9%, which is still in the stage of rapid urbanization. Every year, the newly-employed population in cities and towns is more than 1 654,380+00,000, which brings a lot of new housing demand.
At the same time, a large number of old houses built before 2000 are small in area, poor in quality and incomplete in supporting facilities, and residents have a strong demand for improving their living conditions.
To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, we must focus on the overall situation and long-term development, respect the development laws of the real estate market and the real estate industry, explore new models of real estate development, anchor the people's growing yearning for a better life, provide people with affordable housing with more comfortable living conditions and a more beautiful environment, and let all people live in a house.
(Original title: Xinhua Viewpoint: Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market —— Implementing the Spirit of the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference and Doing a Good Job in the Current Economic Work (V))