Engineering risks are diverse and complex, and some risks are usually interrelated. Engineering risks are usually as follows: political and legal risks, social and cultural risks, economic risks, natural and environmental risks, technical risks, management and organization coordination risks, contract risks and safety, health and environmental risks.
2. Methods of risk identification
There are many methods to predict and identify project risks. At present, Delphi method, brainstorming method and scenario analysis method are commonly used. The theory and method of project risk prediction and identification are still far from perfect and need further study.
II. Project Risk Assessment and Analysis 1, Steps of Project Risk Assessment and Analysis
First, determine the project risk assessment benchmark. The project risk assessment benchmark is the acceptable level determined by the project subject for different project risk consequences. The evaluation benchmark should be determined for individual risk and overall risk, which are called individual evaluation benchmark and overall evaluation benchmark respectively. The objectives of the project are various: short time, maximum profit, minimum cost and minimum risk loss. These goals can be quantified and become evaluation benchmarks. Then determine the project risk level. These include individual risk level and overall risk level. After synthesizing all risk events, determine the overall risk level of the project. In order to determine the overall risk level of the project, it is necessary to list the influences of relationships, interactions and transformation factors on these interactions. In addition, the method of determining the risk level should be compatible with the principles and methods of determining the evaluation benchmark, so there is no comparability between them.
Finally, compare the single risk level of the project with the single evaluation benchmark, and compare the overall risk level with the overall evaluation benchmark to determine whether they are within the acceptable range, and then determine whether the project should stop or continue.
2. Risk assessment and analysis methods of the project.
There are many methods for project risk assessment and analysis, such as Monte Carlo simulation, program evaluation and review technique PERT, subjective probability method, utility theory, grey system theory, fault tree analysis FTA, extrapolation, fuzzy analysis and influence diagram analysis.
III. Project Risk Response Strategy 1, Risk Avoidance Strategy
Avoidance refers to a strategy of actively abandoning the project or changing the project objectives and action plans to avoid risks when the potential threat of project risks is too great and the adverse consequences are too serious, and no other strategies are available. If it is found through risk analysis that the implementation of the project will face great threats, and the project manager team has no good way to control the risks, or even the insurance company refuses to underwrite because the risks are too great, then it is necessary to consider the risk avoidance strategy.
Risk avoidance strategy is the most thorough risk management measure, because it reduces the probability of risk events to zero, but it is also the most negative measure, because it avoids risks and loses possible profit opportunities.
2. Risk control strategy
Risk control is a risk disposal technology to minimize the probability of risk accidents and reduce the scope of losses. Risk control is a risk disposal method that should be adopted in any project implementation and should be carefully studied.
3. Fully understand and apply the contract.
Engineering contract is not only the legal document of project management, but also the main basis of project comprehensive risk management. The project manager must have a strong sense of risk, learn to study every clause of the contract from the perspective of risk analysis and risk management, and have a comprehensive and profound understanding of the risk factors that the project may encounter. Otherwise, the risk will bring huge losses to the project.
4, the preparation of scientific and advanced construction organization design scheme, and constantly optimize.
Take advanced technical measures and perfect organizational measures to reduce the possibility and possible impact of risks.
5. Risk retention strategy
Risk retention is a risk disposal method in which the project team prepares its own funds to bear the risk loss. In practice, there are active reservations and passive reservations. Active retention refers to clarifying the nature and consequences of risks on the basis of predicting, identifying, evaluating and analyzing project risks. Risk managers think it is better to take some risks on their own initiative than other disposal methods, so they raise funds to keep these risks. Passive retention refers to the risk disposal method in which you are forced to bear the consequences if you fail to accurately identify and evaluate risks and losses. Passive retention is a passive and unconscious disposal method, which often causes serious consequences and makes the project team suffer heavy losses. Selectively retaining some risks will help the project team get more profits, but which risks should be retained by the risk manager should be carefully studied. If the risk is not properly retained, it may cause greater losses.
6. Risk transfer strategy
Risk transfer means that the project team consciously transfers the risk to another party with common economic interests. Insurance is the most important way to transfer risks. Non-insurance transfer means that the project team transfers the possible losses caused by risks to the other party in the form of contracts, mainly including lease contracts, guarantee contracts, entrustment contracts and subcontracting contracts. The risk itself has not been reduced by passing on the risk, but the person who takes the risk has changed.
Iv. Attention should be paid to the risk prevention of construction projects: 1, strengthening the feasibility study.
Considering various risk factors and possible losses, a risk factor is added to the tender offer.
2. Reduce the risk range and risk coefficient.
In the whole project operation process, such as project bidding, construction management, final accounts, etc. , we should correctly use economic management means to reduce the probability, frequency and types of risks. In the actual operation process, reduce risk expenditure, reduce risk coefficient, improve project management intensity and increase project benefit.
Don't neglect one thing and lose another.
Scientific use of economic forecasting means, analysis of various risks and benefits, make up for the early risks in the middle and late management, and ensure the production of project benefits. For example, political risk loss is compensated by social benefits, risk loss is compensated by economic benefits, and business risk loss is compensated by management benefits.
4, clear risk objectives, strengthen management, improve work efficiency, reduce risk losses.
After winning the bid, in the case of operating risks, we will further determine other risk targets, strengthen project construction management, improve work efficiency, control the generation and expansion of risks at the same time, and formulate measures to avoid risks by using restraint and incentive mechanisms to improve project benefits and ensure the economic interests of construction enterprises.