Major General Jin Yinan, a professor and doctoral supervisor at the National Defense University of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, said in his keynote speech "Difficulties and Opportunities" that we are at a turning point in history: today, the process of globalization has been seriously retrogressed, the economies of many countries have fallen sharply, the supply chain system has been hit hard, racism has spread everywhere, and the world has suffered a serious impact. No one can escape these problems facing the world today.
Jin Yinan believes that at such an extraordinary moment, adhering to the process of globalization, reform and opening up and keeping the door open is progress. Neither economic decoupling nor technological decoupling can restrain the China market. "The suppression of the market by technology is a temporary victory, while the technology created by the market is the final victory."
Jin Yinan said that the clustering of industrial chain is an important feature of the global industrial chain reconstruction in this epidemic; The epidemic is prompting the industry to pay more attention to digital infrastructure, cloud services, Internet of Things, remote connections and so on in the next stage. The first step in the future is to see who can survive; The second step is to live for change. Survival is not an end, survival is for change, and change is for victory. We seized the opportunity of survival, the opportunity of change and the opportunity of victory.
The following is a record of the speech:
The topic given to me today is "Looking for Opportunities in Difficulties", and I changed the topic to "Difficulties and Opportunities".
Today, when we talk about difficulties and opportunities, the first sentence is that some times are destined to leave a deep impression on history. The year 2020 is a very special era. Not only individuals, but also the community where everyone lives, including the country where everyone lives, including the relationship between countries, has left a deep impression on people.
We are at such a turning point in history that we are caught off guard.
At the beginning of 2020, everyone was talking about the US-Iraq war at first, and then the Sino-US trade agreement. As a result, the war predicted at the beginning of the year did not happen and peace did not come. An unexpected visitor came-COVID-19. Who invited him? Come uninvited Today, there are 26 million confirmed cases and nearly 900,000 people have died. From the end of 20 19 to the beginning of 2020, it is impossible for so many politicians, military strategists and economists all over the world to predict this situation.
There is also a saying that "major crises often become historical turning points." There is another sentence in this sentence: "the turning point in history is often casual." We are at such a turning point in history that we are caught off guard and no one thought of it.
Today, the process of globalization has been seriously retrogressed, the economies of many countries have fallen sharply, the supply chain system has been hit hard, racism has spread everywhere, and the world has suffered a serious impact. No one can escape these problems facing the world today.
Who would have thought that the number of people infected with COVID-19 in the United States is the largest in the world, and the death toll is also the largest in the world, and the stock market blew four times in ten days. The United States has the best medical conditions and the most developed medical equipment. Results 6.3 million people were diagnosed today, and the mortality rate exceeded 6.5438+0.9 million. Trump said that "it is a great victory to control the mortality rate below 6.5438+0.9 million", and we were shocked.
At the same time, the number of unemployed people in the United States exceeds 40 million, which means that one fifth of Americans have lost their jobs. Trump was furious. For him, all the economic achievements of more than three years were destroyed in six days. His most brilliant achievements are economy, stock market and employment. From the end of March to the beginning of April this year, the Dow dropped from 29,000 points to more than18,000 points, a decrease of nearly 165438+.
We made the best demonstration to fight the epidemic. We did a closed-book exam and got a good answer, but it was claimed by several countries. Why are they so keen to claim compensation from China? On the one hand, China has a historical tradition of compensation for many times, and on the other hand, he has a realistic thinking that "forbearance is the best, and spending money to eliminate disasters". We have a saying: as long as money can solve the problem, it is not a problem. These ways of thinking are mastered by foreign countries, which is not good news for us, but a disaster. They regard China people as the best targets for robbery.
Therefore, at the postponed two sessions this year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi made it very clear that these indiscriminate accusations against China have no factual basis, no legal basis and no international precedent, and are the product of the out-and-out "three noes". The meaning of these words is clear. If you want compensation from China, don't even think about it. We don't have this resolute attitude, absolutely not. As can be seen from today's phenomenon, the COVID-19 epidemic has become a landmark event affecting the international pattern, and all political aspects-the true face of the country, the true face of individuals and the true face of enterprises-are exposed. How cruel you are, you can't hide it if you want to. The popularity of COVID-19 is not a revolutionary force to reset the order, but will accelerate the retrogression, closure, conservatism, blockade and globalization of history in a rare spiral way, the relationship between major powers will deteriorate, the global supply chain and market rules will be deeply doubted, populism, anti-elitism and anti-integration will become a trend, the opposition and division between different races will intensify, and various political, social and racial prejudices will resurface. History will not go forward forever, but it will go backwards. The moment we are in today is a time of historical retrogression.
"Standing still is also progress."
In such an extraordinary period, I say a word: "standing still is also moving forward."
Even if we don't have any new policies or strategies, as long as we adhere to the original globalization process, reform and opening up, and open the door, we will advance. In such an extraordinary period, Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said, "It is certain that the global economy will decline sharply in 2020, which is more serious than that during the Great Depression. There will be 170 countries in the world with negative per capita income growth. " Recently adjusted to 190 countries, which means that almost all countries have negative growth. Today we are here to talk about difficulties, but who is not difficult? We are talking about problems here, but who is not a bunch of problems? China's problem is the lightest and slowest, and others are much more difficult than us. We took the lead in getting out of the epidemic today, and now there are still people trapped inside.
China's economic scale and educational scale are gradually emerging?
We have not only come out, but also look at the economic scale of China today. Today, we are talking about difficulties and opportunities. The opportunity lies in China's first step out of the epidemic and the second China's economic scale. This economic scale is hard to shake again. Look at the four major manufacturing countries in the world. The black line is the United States, which dominated the world manufacturing industry for 20% for a long time, and then fell. The gray line is Japan, which reached 20% in the mid-1990s and then declined. The dotted line is Germany, which is lower than10% in the world for a long time; Look at China's lines. 1980, the world manufacturing industry accounts for 2.5-3%. In 2008, the rising red line in China crossed the falling black line in the United States, each accounting for 18% of the world manufacturing industry. In 20 18, China's manufacturing industry accounted for 29.4% of the world, ranking first in the world, and this proportion will reach 40-45% in 2025. This is our foundation, the scale of our economy.
According to the statistics of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories of the United Nations Industrial Classification, including 39 major categories, 19 1 middle category and 525 subcategories, forming a major category option and an independent and complete industrial system. This is an important foundation for us to move from predicament to opportunity today. Compared with the world's major industrial countries 14 in high-end manufacturing, the United States, Germany, China, Japan and Japan have no aviation development, no passenger airliners, no Internet, no communication equipment, no aerospace industry and no satellites. This is also what Japan lacks. Then in Germany, there are no aero engines, no chips, no smart phones, no laptops, no internet, no aerospace industry, no satellite navigation and so on. Then the United States, no LCD panels, no high-speed rail, no civilian ships, no lithium batteries. Finally, China, 14 samples were all completed. Our problem is that we can do everything, but the quality is not very good. This is a problem that we must change. But there is no doubt that China's economic scale has reached today's level. As the General Secretary said, China's economy is a sea, not a small pond. A storm can overturn a small pond, but not the sea.
It's too big. You can't cut China by any economic cutting or technical cutting. Therefore, whether it is a trade war or an epidemic, the psychological impact on us is greater than the actual impact. China people are very oscillatory and psychologically oscillatory, but it's not that terrible. The size of China's economy is very difficult for Americans. Trump's economic advisers asked American companies to move out of China, and the government would pay all the relocation expenses. Trump asked Cook to move. Cook said that in the United States, if a meeting of mold engineers is held, there may not be enough room, but in China, many football fields may be able to accommodate them.
China's economic scale is supported by China's education scale. In 20 16, the number of undergraduates studying science and engineering has reached 5-6 million, and now it is more than 6 million, and most of them are Asians. Americans study finance, law and medicine, but not bridges, ships, automobiles, steel and coal. This is a big problem in America today. There are not enough engineers and skilled workers. Washington post reported, "China has the largest number of science and engineering graduates in the world. In 200 1-20 14 years, more than 800 universities were opened in China, and the number of graduates of science and technology engineering was 10 times that of the United States "; The Journal of the National Academy of Sciences reported: "44% of college students in China majored in natural science and engineering, while only 16% in the United States. Considering that the population of China is four times that of the United States, this trend will be terrible in the future. " America is not afraid of you now, but of your future. If this situation continues, engineers from China will emerge in large numbers. What should America do? The International Economic Cooperation Organization predicts that in 2025, the number of engineers and technical engineers in China will exceed the sum of all OECD member countries. This is the scale of our economy and education today, and the scale of education is gradually emerging.
This is the global patent application of 20 18. It can be seen from this that the European Patent Office, including Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Eastern Europe, only applied for170,000 in 20/8 years, which is not as good as 2 10/00,000 in South Korea. South Korea is two-thirds of Japan; Japan has 365,438+10,000 pieces, half of that of the United States; There are nearly 600,000 pieces in the United States, which is more than one third of that in China. Of course, the quality of our patent application has not gone up yet. The quality of patents in the United States and Japan is high, and our patent application also has a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. This process is cumulative, and only when there is quantitative change can there be qualitative change. Our current automobile output is nearly 30 million, which has accumulated enough quantitative changes. The automobile industry should have reached a moment of qualitative change.
What Americans guess most now is economic decoupling. How to decouple? Allison, a professor at Harvard University who put forward the "Hugh Sidney trap", said: "China's economy is the backbone of the world economy. The United States cannot decouple other countries from China's economy. The dominant part of China's economy is actually domestic consumption, so they don't need to ask the west for help. Western investment in China is due to China's mature supply chain, good infrastructure and huge market. Who will be stupid enough to give up this market? " "Of course, production can be transferred to Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and other countries. The question is how big the market is for the many products they produce? " This is the problem. You moved the automobile enterprise to Vietnam. Is there such a big car sales in Vietnam? If you can't sell it, you have to come to China. China is the biggest car market in the world, so I have to come over. This is a market choice, not a political temptation, but a market temptation.
The United States says it can, then decouple technology from high technology. Schmidt, former CEO of Google and retired chairman of the Pentagon's National Defense Innovation Committee, resolutely opposes technological decoupling. He said: "Once the global platform is dismantled, it can never be restored. China benefits from a common communication platform, and each technology platform has Western values, which is in the interest of the West. " Will you force China people to build a China platform without western values? China people had better always use second-rate and third-rate chips from the West, always buy American chips at a high price, and support the research and development of American chips. Now people in China are making their own chips, which not only leads to the serious accumulation of chip stocks in the United States, but also leads to the decline of subsequent R&D capabilities. So Schmidt's conclusion is that "it is better for China people to make their own chips with western chips."
Here we see the power of the market. As Lang Xianping said, "Technology is the greatest advantage of the United States, and the market is the greatest advantage of China. Technology must be sold to the market to make high profits. Without market technology, it will definitely decline. " "The chip is the most advanced and complicated technology of mankind at present, and the United States is proud of it. China is the largest chip market in the world. With the market, there is no technology to develop technology. If you lose technology, the flower of technology will inevitably wither again. " "The suppression of the market by technology is a temporary victory, while the technology created by the market is the final victory."
Form a big pattern with large domestic circulation as the main body and double domestic and international circulation as the same promotion.
This is what the general secretary said, and we must give full play to the advantages of the domestic super-large-scale market. We have fully seen the technological advantages of the United States, but we have not fully realized our own market advantages. The United States has now fully felt the market advantage of China, and China has become the largest market in the world. That is, the general secretary said that it is necessary to gradually form a big pattern with domestic macro-cycle as the main body and double-cycle at home and abroad. This is our future pattern.
The clustering of industrial chain is an important feature of global industrial chain reconstruction in this epidemic. This epidemic, from the beginning of this year to the present, both Suzhou and Chongqing are growing, and the growth rate is relatively large, which is mainly due to the agglomeration of industrial chains. Therefore, Mayor Huang said, "China should seize the opportunity of industrial shutdown and economic recession in Europe and the United States, and strive to build a number of emerging industrial chain clusters with high spatial concentration, close cooperation between upstream and downstream, and intensive and efficient supply chain, with a scale of hundreds of billions or even trillions" in the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, as the core of the domestic and the starting point of the international great cycle. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, together with the future central regions such as Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha and Hefei, have become the core of the domestic great cycle and the starting point of the international great cycle.
The epidemic is prompting the industry to pay more attention to digital infrastructure, cloud services, Internet of Things, remote connections and so on in the next stage. Our greatest advantage is good infrastructure. China is just accelerating the research and development of digital infrastructure such as big data and Internet of Things in the field of 5G. We can imagine that this infrastructure will be better than other countries in the next step. Pentagon assessment: "5G may transform China from a capital and labor-intensive manufacturing economy to an innovative economy." 5G, we are at the forefront of the world. We talk about difficulties and opportunities. Opportunities are intangible resources, and grasping opportunities requires grasping uncertainty. Most people do not like uncertainty. In fact, real leaders like uncertainty. The truly superb art of leadership is precisely the result of giving full play to uncertainty. How to make effective use of uncertainty, it is precisely because of uncertainty that they really have a chance.
Of course, we say that the future is like this. Whoever can survive in the first step will survive. The big impact in 2020, a large number of enterprises closed down, dealt a great blow to the service industry, catering industry, tourism industry, hotel industry, including transportation industry, suffered a heavy blow. I said the first step is that whoever can survive will survive, and the second step is that you can survive before you can change. Survival is not an end, but a change. When you die, all your great theories are over. You must survive before you can change. You've become a changer. The purpose of change is to win, and you must be the winner.
This is the increment of the world economy in 2020 according to CNN statistics, and the orange is 2020, both of which are negative growth. Look at the United States -8%, Britain-10%, France-12%, Spain and Italy-13%,-14% and -65433. The epidemic in 2020 has greatly narrowed the distance between China and the United States. We feel that development has been hindered, and other countries are more backward, but the distance is getting closer and closer. There is a "survivor takes all" theory in the international economic circle, which is to see who can live to the end. We seize the opportunity of survival, that is, seize the opportunity of change, seize the opportunity of victory, and complete this grasp in the disaster.
Finally, it ends with Engels' words: "There is no major historical disaster, which cannot be compensated by historical progress." Whether you can enjoy this compensation depends on your vitality, your development and your creativity. Disaster is not our choice, but the road we opened.
The last two sentences: the first sentence: "The problem is the best guide to get people out of trouble."
The second sentence: "Crisis is the best teacher to teach people to create."
I'll stop here, thank you.