According to estimates, among the CPI increase of 1.6% in February last year, the hikes of the previous year's price increase disappeared to zero, and the new price increase factor was about 1.6 percentage points. Among them, the food price increased by 2.7% year-on-year, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.9 1 percentage point. In the same period, non-food prices rose 1. 1%. Among them, the prices of alcohol, tobacco and articles, medical care and personal articles, clothing, entertainment, education, cultural goods and services, household equipment and maintenance services, and housing increased by 3.9%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 1.3%, 0.8% and 0.8% respectively; Traffic and communication prices fell 1.3%.
The report released on the same day also showed that in February of 20 15 and 15, the national industrial producer's ex-factory price (PPI) decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline has been flat for five consecutive months. In that month, the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year. In 20 15, the PPI decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 6. 1%.
■ News analysis
The trend of weak prices will continue.
According to the operation of monthly data, since the beginning of 20 15, the year-on-year increase of CPI in China has been in the range of less than 2% continuously, and it climbed to the high point of 2% in August, and then it was adjusted back for two consecutive months. The consumer price rebounded at 1 1 and continued to rebound at 12.
For the further development in the future, Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, said that the overall supply of domestic pigs is stable, the price of pigs will not skyrocket, and the "twelve consecutive harvests" of domestic grain, coupled with the increase in imports after the sharp drop in international food prices, will also depress domestic food prices. At the same time, in the environment of low international commodity prices, non-food prices also lack upward momentum.
Liu Xuezhi said that the overall price increase of 20 16 will remain low, and there will be no obvious inflationary pressure. Without serious external shocks and economic fluctuations, CPI will not fall into the negative growth range.
Some experts in the industry believe that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 20 16 is expected to increase due to the low base in 20 15. On the one hand, we must seize the time window and promote the reform in the price field in a timely manner in accordance with the requirements of the 13 th Five-Year Plan; On the other hand, due to the downward pressure on the economy, it is necessary to prevent the "excessive force" of de-capacity from leading to negative growth in consumer prices and deflation.
As of 20 15, 12, the producer price (PPI) of China's industries has been declining for 46 consecutive months, and it has dropped by 5.9% for five consecutive months since August of 20 15, running at the low point of this price fluctuation. The long-term low price increase, especially the continuous negative PPI, makes industrial enterprises face greater operating pressure and inhibits the enthusiasm of enterprises to increase inventory and expand capacity investment.
The industry believes that the decline in the price of industrial products and the decline in corporate efficiency are appearances, and the root cause lies in the structural contradictions on the supply side, especially the serious overcapacity. With the stabilization of commodity prices and the increase of production capacity, the decline of 20 16 PPI is expected to gradually narrow.
According to Xinhua News Agency