Fold the horse and hurt the knight;
Wounded a knight and lost a battle;
Lost a battle and lost an empire.
Text | Zou Chenxin
What we need is more cold thinking on the 47th day of the outbreak and the 5th day of the "cloud opening".
Next time a small probability event happens, can the harm be minimized?
Baker once pointed out in Risk Society that under the background of globalization, disasters caused by risks in modern society are no longer limited to the place where they occur, and often cause irreparable global damage; The severity of the risk exceeds the ability of early warning, detection and post-processing; However, due to the change of the time-space boundary of risk, the results of catastrophic events are diverse, and it is even impossible to determine the calculation of risk.
Unknown 0 1 epidemic? & amp？ An incalculable loss
In the year of 2020, which makes hundreds of millions of people want to restart, people will not only mourn the lost heroes and youth, but also lose thousands of human, material and GDP.
As an automobile industry that contributes 10%GDP to the motherland every year, it has been "falling" since 20 18, especially this year.
According to the data of public transport network, in June 2020, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached1699 million, which was 2 1.5% lower than that of June 20 19, and the lowest growth rate since the retail statistics of the Federation in 2005.
Although according to the laws of the past years, 65438+ 10 will be the "off-season" of automobile sales every year, the sudden epidemic will even reduce it to "freezing point" and even bring the automobile industry chain related to Hubei to a complete standstill.
As a big boss in central China, the Passenger Transport Association compiled the data of the National Bureau of Statistics: in 20 19, the automobile production in Hubei Province was 2.24 million, accounting for 8.8% of the total automobile production in the country, ranking fourth in the country. The data shows that by the end of 20 18, there were 1482 automobile manufacturing enterprises above designated size in Hubei Province, and the whole country was/kloc.
Real map of Wuhan Bogwarner factory
Only Wuhan, a thoroughfare of nine provinces, has gathered nearly 20,000 enterprises, including 7 complete vehicle enterprises, 2 automobile assembly plants/KLOC-0, more than 500 spare parts enterprises, 54 "Fortune 500" enterprises, and 4 automobile R&D institutions/KLOC-0 at or above the provincial level, which can produce 37 kinds of automobile models, with an annual automobile output exceeding one million and a total income of one trillion.
You may question, isn't there only one Hubei, how can the national industrial chain be at a standstill? In fact, it is. Of course, this is not only because of the relevant car companies in Hubei, but also because of its unique geographical location.
Because the epidemic situation is still in a critical stage, in order to meet the requirements of prevention and control, the original start-up time of enterprises has been delayed by 1 week or even longer. Then you will see the news that the automobile industry has delayed production, and the supply chain from distant New Zealand to neighboring South Korea has felt the impact of domestic stagnation.
Once the car companies stop working, the economic losses caused are immeasurable. Even if everything else is normal, if the assembly line of the main engine plant is stopped for half an hour, its direct economic loss can be as high as several million RMB.
For example, on February 6, Beijing Benz Co., Ltd. issued a document to Tianjin for help: "The company only has one day's safety stock. Once (the supplier) stops production for one day, it will cause Beijing Benz to stop production. If Beijing Benz can't resume work in February 10, the daily economic loss will exceed 400 million yuan. "
Including a domestic auto parts enterprise named Huida Machinery Manufacturing (Huzhou) Co., Ltd., which sent help to the Huzhou Municipal Committee of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, was unable to fulfill the previously signed contract of "delivering 1000 sets of steering gear housings to the African factory of French Peugeot Group every week" due to the epidemic situation, and had to bear the contract loss of about 2.4 million yuan. "
In fact, this company is only the epitome of most auto parts enterprises.
For vehicle manufacturers, as many as 30 thousand parts are usually needed, and even the problem of one part will lead to the shutdown of the production line. In fact, the production preparation and logistics work of the automobile industry need a lot of efforts to recover under such a major force majeure event.
What's more, the current situation is that many car companies are not only unable to start work, but also face sales problems due to the sharp drop in passenger traffic in 4S shops.
Although a lot of work has started the home office mode, dealers have also actively carried out various delivery services such as "seeing cars in the cloud", "selling cars in the cloud" and even door-to-door delivery, but the results have been minimal.
02? Force majeure? & amp？ Car companies have weak ability to resist risks
I have always been curious, is it really because of Hubei and the epidemic that domestic car companies have stopped working in large areas?
No, it's like when Korean Auto first sent out the news that the Korean factory was shut down because of the shortage of spare parts and wiring harnesses. I thought it was only because of China suppliers. Actually, Kyungshin and Yura are Korean automotive wiring harness manufacturers? The start-up time of two suppliers, Corporatio's factory in Shandong, was delayed, which made it impossible to supply spare parts.
After all, the automobile industry has entered a relatively stable production mode after long-term development, and even spontaneously formed a "closed loop" mode. Under normal production and sales conditions, this established production is the most efficient and stable, but in fact it is also the lowest risk resistance.
According to the conventional automobile assembly process, suppliers at all levels are responsible for the production of parts, and then transport them to the main engine plant for assembly line assembly; Although the OEM is also responsible for the production of some parts, the proportion is relatively small, and the value provided by suppliers accounts for about 70% of the whole vehicle. So once any supplier stops production, logistics is blocked, or dealers are in trouble, it means that the whole supply chain is cut off, which in turn leads to the stagnation of the whole automobile enterprise and even the whole industry.
Just like the stagnation of this industry, it cannot be completely attributed to the epidemic. Although parts made in China are used in millions of cars assembled by other factories around the world, Hubei Province is also an important center for the production and transportation of auto parts, and a large number of supporting suppliers in the industrial chain are rooted here, but do all car companies have plans? B, suppliers with other remedies, or a certain amount of inventory status, do not belong to this situation.
Moreover, this is not the first time that the automobile industry has suffered. In my impression, in February, 2065438+2006, an explosion occurred in a steel plant of Toyota Aichi Iron Works, resulting in a shortage of steel supply, which led to the suspension of production in Toyota Japan for one week and a loss of production capacity of 4%.
In April of the same year, a strong earthquake occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, which led to the suspension of some factories owned by parts suppliers such as Aisin Seiki and Renesas Electronics, which in turn led to the suspension of production of Toyota, Honda and Nissan.
In particular, Renesas Electronics, which produces micro-control chips for automobiles in Kumamoto Prefecture, was unable to resume the supply of spare parts within 10 days. Although Toyota launched an emergency import plan, its two factories were still closed for another week.
At that time, many people in the industry analyzed that Toyota's loss was due to its "inaccurate cost calculation" in addition to force majeure.
Toyota is famous for its pursuit of low inventory and even "zero inventory". An ordinary gas tanker has about 30,000 parts. There is nothing wrong with Toyota's "just-in-time production" system to optimize the use of resources to a great extent, but it does not consider "accidents", especially some low-probability events, and depends on the developed transportation system, the near-perfect execution of suppliers and the accuracy of assembly plants in mobilizing production resources.
Why are there so many parts suppliers in the world that three factories in Kia, South Korea and Nissan, Fukuoka, Japan stop production? FCA also said: If the situation does not improve, its European factory will also stop production at the end of February; Even Bosch, as a global parts giant, recently issued an early warning: Bosch relies heavily on the China market, and the epidemic may affect its global supply chain.
Bosch Huayu Steering System (Wuhan) Co., Ltd.
Indeed, in 20 19, Bosch's sales in the Asia-Pacific region reached 22.5 billion euros, of which more than/kloc-0.0 billion euros came from the China market, and Bosch also had two related companies in Wuhan.
Under the influence of the epidemic, most auto parts enterprises have postponed their resumption of work. Compared with vehicle manufacturers, the ability to resist risks in the face of force majeure is relatively weak, especially for parts and components enterprises exported overseas, whose production suspension directly affects the global automobile industry chain.
03? After the epidemic? & amp？ Can everything be reborn?
After the epidemic, can online education usher in a qualitative leap? Is healthy travel the new direction? Is it cold to buy a car online and enjoy a trip? Will private cars become a necessity for families?
Although I know very well in my heart that the epidemic will always pass, and any social crisis or risk will be accompanied by the change of new productive forces, it is still difficult to recover effectively in the short term, especially in Hubei Province.
Even if we find out why the pace of the automobile industry has stopped, there is still no way to simplify this global undertaking. The complexity of this matter lies in:
First, the unknown recovery period will not only affect foreign brands, but also the rising independent brands. China is a global vehicle manufacturing base, and a large number of foreign-funded enterprises with spare parts have landed in China, making cars produced all over the world use parts imported from China. No matter what the value, any link in the industrial chain is hindered, which will affect the stop of the whole industrial chain.
Second, it is difficult for a clever woman to cook without rice, and car companies or dealers with "inventory" will benefit. At this stage, car companies delay the resumption of work, whether it is the whole car or spare parts, inventory has become a valuable resource, which can last for a while at a critical moment. In particular, joint venture brands that pursue lower inventory factors like Japanese brands may be affected by low inventory in the first quarter.
Third, global auto companies can't find alternative suppliers in a short time, and many auto parts companies at home and abroad are facing the risk of out-of-stock, so they will re-evaluate the supply capacity of parts in China in time.
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According to reliable sources, Toyota is considering the possibility of producing parts that are usually made in China in other regions, so as to minimize the impact of production suspension in China on its global production network. Just as in June of 5438+ 10 this year, when the supplier factory of Ford's high-profit pickup truck in Michigan was threatened by fire, Ford quickly transferred its production tools to the factory in Ontario, Canada.
It is safe for car manufacturers to have an emergency backup plan. However, we all know that this time, it is not only possible to "transfer" replacement parts. In the extraordinary period when the epidemic has not been controlled, Hubei manufacturers not only failed to start work, but also prevented the spread of the epidemic during transportation. There are no fathers and sons in the mall, so probably no one wants to bet on an uncertain China spare parts manufacturer.
Fourth, affected by the epidemic, except for medical supplies, almost all industries are stagnant, prices are also rising, and consumers' purchasing power and consumer confidence are affected. Just as netizens ridiculed that "economic conditions do not allow them to stay at home", the state does not allow them to go out, and related medical and health care technologies are unlikely to land for some time. Therefore, after this epidemic, it may be difficult to achieve a situation similar to the outbreak of the automobile market after SARS in 2003.
Che Tan Jun observed.
The lesson of this epidemic is that the whole automobile related industry is * * *, without exception, including automobile media.
We can understand that due to the different abilities of enterprises to cope with the epidemic, the key point affecting the survival of enterprises' epidemic lies in the normalization of their capital chain and external environment. We can't report the "conspiracy theory" and hope to reduce some enterprises and even the population through the epidemic.
First of all, we must understand that even if nature retaliates against human beings, it is not the epidemic but the lack of progress that really makes car companies encounter crisis? The enterprise itself, the epidemic situation is not the root cause of survival of the fittest. The outbreak of the epidemic only tests the system's ability to resist risks, and what really eliminates enterprises is full and healthy market competition.
However, it is undeniable that the negative impact of this epidemic on China and even the global automobile industry is immeasurable, and it may even shake China's absolute weight in the global market and its importance to trade.
So those car companies that are not in the "hardest hit areas", whether they go to sea or transfer factories, look for spare resources and start plans? B is feasible and desirable. It is even necessary to reasonably arrange the production progress in the first half of the year and customize the annual sales target in 2020 in combination with the progress of the epidemic.
This is especially true for domestic independent brands, which can not only adopt different policies to reduce the inventory burden for regional distributors and supply chains in different epidemic areas, but also provide different support policies such as financial policy, business policy and guarantee business.
Secondly, it is emphasized that "it is necessary to be hard while the iron is hot". Powerful car companies can train a group of stable and excellent suppliers as soon as possible and establish a complete direct sales model. After all, in the face of modern risk society, car companies need to learn to respond flexibly to sudden market demand, so as to have corresponding anti-risk ability.
Finally, the importance of China in the automobile industry chain is undeniable. Even Mingjun Okada, chief financial officer of Subaru Company, said, "To tell the truth, it is impossible to produce cars without China", and this sentence is not wrong today.
But what about the future? Not everything will be all right after an epidemic. The era of relying solely on the demographic dividend has passed, and we still have a lot to do. The competition in China market will only become more and more fierce.
The butterfly effect caused by an epidemic is worthy of reflection by all people and enterprises.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.