Gree is a model of greatness in the capital market.
According to WIND data, Gree since its listing in 1996, the cumulative net profit of 175.05 billion yuan, the cumulative cash dividends of 61.611 billion yuan, the dividend rate as high as 35.2%.
In the capital market, where iron roosters are piled up, it is rare.
There is a chairman of the board who can be called the light of the right way, suggesting to raise the starting point of personal tax, the commitment to 80,000 employees to buy a house, shouting that the bottom line of the enterprise is conscience, the staff is the biggest wealth of the enterprise ......
Just released the results of the snapshot, the same reflects the bearings of Gree, some move to the annual report to make it look good, not to mention that the super-size of the report just launched. Not to mention the large-scale employee stock ownership plan just launched.
This will establish and improve the interests of workers and owners **** enjoyment mechanism, improve the cohesion of workers and the company's competitiveness, and promote the company's long-term stable and healthy development of ......
Such Gree who do not love?
It did not occur to me that Gree is mixed into a heavy ED patient.
The loss of growth of Gree, has been high sideways for two whole years, on the contrary, once the little old brothers, the United States, the United States dust, Haier also in the blindfolded wild chase, once the big brother pressed in the place of repeated friction.
All this is because Gree's fiasco in diversification.
No matter how NB quality, how recognized by consumers, no growth potential is the biggest original sin.
So the question is, Gree diversification can not break through, who should take the blame?
First of all, the point of view, 2021 Gree is not bad.
The 2020 Gree, Junlin tends to use 2015 as a comparison.
Lured by the hot summer, the air conditioning market retail sales in 2014 increased by 13%, air conditioning companies are bursting with confidence, domestic sales shipments increased by as much as 27% year-on-year, resulting in high inventories, reaching an unprecedented 40 million units.
High inventory will inevitably bring price wars, sitting on half of the industry's inventory Gree, natural Alexander, especially in 2015, the economic slowdown superimposed on the real estate downturn, which who can stand?
In order to go to the inventory, Gree took the lead in launching a price war.
The United States, Haier, Zhigao have responded to the "10,000 people to grab the air conditioning" activity whole wind and water, even the Development and Reform Commission can not stand this group of iron Bean hurry to stop.
It is in this context, air conditioning industry-wide street.
According to industry online data, in 2015 the domestic household air conditioning production 103.85 million units, down 12% year-on-year, the cumulative sales of 106.6 million units, down 8.6% year-on-year.
Auntie Dong was dumbfounded, at the beginning of the year, also insisted that "the annual growth of 20 billion target unchanged", in June, has only been able to mouth Hi "the end of the year may have a surprise".
This surprise is indeed big enough, Gree rare performance plunge.
But Auntie Dong is worthy of marketing king, funeral happy to play thieves, the 2015 results to do low, put out a bold statement "three years to create a Gree".
Good guy, actually really done by her.
I Dong aunt mighty.
Auntie Dong is playing with the set of inventory pressure, after all, Gree dealers are brought up by Auntie Dong, cut the peaks and fill the valleys, balanced production capacity is not a matter of course.
In 2018, it really reached 200 billion yuan, it is so precise.
But this is playing the numbers game, sales data has been distorted.
If 2014 is the base number, Gree's compound growth rate of operating income from 2014 to 2019 is 7.45%, and the compound growth rate of net profit is only 11.77%, which is not as high as imagined.
Gree deadly pressure inventory is in the overdraft growth potential, balanced capacity instead of the performance of the ups and downs, thief stimulation.
Gree's brilliance in those two years is at the cost of pressing inventory.
According to industry online data, in June 2019, the total inventory of the air conditioning industry 48.23 million units, of which Gree accounted for 22.47 million units, close to 50%.
What can be done?
The price war continues to go up.
On November 27, 2019, Gree set off another "10 billion large concessions" activities, three energy consumption of "quality" air conditioning crazy concessions to consumers, successfully achieve a win-win situation.
The 2020 epidemic and the 2015 air conditioning winter is very similar, and once again become a good opportunity for air conditioning companies to go to the inventory, to be able to lightly loaded.
Never pull Gree's new retail transformation, that is bullying honest people.
Gree online channel construction adheres to the idea of self-built distribution channels, that is, must master the autonomy of the channel.
As Auntie Dong said:
"Gree has 30,000 stores, which is related to the employment of millions of people. If we say we go directly online and abandon the offline, it will cause millions of people to lose their jobs, which is absolutely not an option.
I hope that through the live broadcast 'wake up' dealers, change the thinking of the past, keep up with the times, and truly realize the integration of online and offline."
Although Gree has its own platform in Gome, Tmall, and Jingdong, Suning also take the "platform buyout" approach to cooperation, but the construction of Gree Mall is still a top priority.
The original Gree sales channels for Gree Electric headquarters - sales branches around - Gree agents - Gree stores.
Gree's new retail model is Gree Dongzhu store in the role of factory general agent, direct consumers and retailers.
In order to create Gree Dongzhu store, Gree Mall operating body has been fully tilted to it, when clicking on the Gree Mall website, directly moved to Gree Dongzhu store.
Auntie Dong engaged in live carry is also the main Gree Dongzhu store, and achieved 13 live 47.6 billion yuan live amount of impressive results, accounting for 1/4 of Gree sales.
But behind the impressive results, still in the de-stocking.
There are two modes of operation of the Dongzhu store:
One is that consumers watch the live broadcast and enter the "Gree Dongzhu store" to place orders directly: the background will be distributed directly to the consumer orders corresponding to the regional distributor, the distributor to carry out delivery and installation.
One is the dealer offline diversion to Gree Dongzhu store: Gree 30,000 stores synchronized live broadcast, dealers let offline stores to buy consumers scan the QR code, diversion to Dongzhu store to buy, the system will identify the QR code corresponding to the dealer.
This can be called live bandwagon?
Besides, the circle over and over again, it is still not the dealer shipment.
If you put aside the addition of the live carry, Gree Dongzhu store as a WeChat small program, there is that kind of traffic support Gree new retail channel construction?
With such a question, Junlin curious to enter the Gree Dongzhu store spike special field, see this Yuefeng-II sales of up to 91,304 pieces, quite shocked, seems to be very good ah.
But then look closely, all in the early hours of the morning brush out of the praise, a thousand words into one sentence:
The navy, I advise you to be kind!
Auntie Dong aside, "brush face" performance, Gree Dong Mingzhu store real sales situation is still "to be observed".
Probability, Gree's reform is just leather a lonely.
Gree upholds the principle of "high quality, high pricing", and Maotai layers of the dealer system is similar, and do not allow the middleman to earn a difference in the price of e-commerce natural urine in a pot.
Gree must control the channel autonomy of the play, but also with openness, equality, collaboration, sharing of the spirit of the Internet is incompatible.
Gree is again cattle, can still be stronger than Ali, Jingdong not?
The lack of Internet thinking Gree, ultimately difficult to online dominance.
Gree's dealer system and store system established offline strong invincible advantage, and Suning, Gome home appliance chain channels to compete.
But the times have changed, Suning have exploded, do not lie in the credit book to eat the old money.
In 2020, the cumulative sales of air conditioning online market accounted for 53%, for the first time more than offline, if not air conditioning needs to be installed, the online share will only be higher.
It is important to know that in 2015, the online share was only 16%.
In this context, it is not unusual for the United States to double kill Gree.
More than that, Gree is most proud of the efficiency of making money, perennial ROE of 30% + crushed the industry.
But in 2019, this last pride was also shattered by the United States, ROE was surpassed by the United States, 2020 is no eye, go to the inventory under the Gree is such a spicy eye.
In the context of the air conditioning ceiling is hidden, play sales rebate Gree live to play themselves into a cyclical stock.
And in 2021, the recovery is coming.
In 2016, Gree's operating income increased by only 9.5%, while net profit increased by 23.39%.
The main reason is that after the de-stocking of Gree, there is no need to fight the price war, relying on the low-cost advantage and brand premium, the net interest rate is rapidly recovering.
After all, Gree's profit share in the industry chain is far from being comparable to other enterprises, and a slight rebound in the retail side can eat and drink without worrying.
If you encounter the kind of retail end of the 2017 sales explosion of the year, dealers are crazy to replenish inventory, Gree can also fat wave.
In this round of de-stocking, Gree engaged in "10 billion subsidies" and other price wars, the net interest rate fell rapidly from 14.33% in Q3 2019 to 7.74% in Q1 2020.
At the same time, according to Aiken Home Appliances data, the domestic air conditioning market shipments in 2020 was only 83 million sets, a year-on-year decline of more than 10%, Gree natural performance cool.
The good thing is that since Q3 2020, the air conditioning industry has finished digesting inventory and turned to replenish the inventory cycle, and the average online retail price has begun to rebound.
For Gree, it is clear that the beginning of another round of boom period.
Together with the macro-economy in 2021, far better than in 2016, the industry boom will not be bad, Ge Li price rise is a probable event, the performance is very secure.
This is also the reason why Junlin short-term empty turn more.
But the long-term development of Gree is still worrying.
First of all, the air conditioning industry, after 2018 has been saturated, entering the slow growth era, and then blowing the air conditioning track more excellent are in vain.
Compared to the air conditioning ownership of 142 units/hundred households in urban households, 65 units/hundred households in rural areas are obviously more desirable, as evidenced by the rise of Poundland.
Go to the fourth and fifth tier cities, go to the vast rural areas, where the market is promising.
Especially in the year when the home appliances in full swing to the countryside to bring high growth, the next is the peak of the replacement.
But this wave of sinking dividends, destined only to enter the bowl of the United States.
After all, high quality and high price of Gree, has long been out of the low-end market competition, otherwise there would not have been the emergence of Oxy.
The characteristics of white power technology iteration is slow, but also destined to master the core technology of Gree, the moat is not as deep as imagined, otherwise it will not be the United States double kill, can not say that consumers are blind.
And aside from the air conditioning, Gree then did not get out of the way.
That said, many people may not be convinced to take Gree's intelligent manufacturing, after all, Gree's CNC machine tools, industrial robots and other black technology force full.
Auntie Dong is also very proud, declared on different occasions:
"Money can not buy the core technology, rely on the market can not change the core technology! The development of intelligent equipment manufacturing should adhere to the road of independent creation. From Made in China to China to create, which is to deal with the future of international competition can not bypass the link."
This is absolutely right, from the U.S. card our neck can be seen on the importance of the core technology autonomy and control.
But so NB black technology, you have to support the prongs up ah.
From Gree's main business composition, air conditioning + other (complementary) + other revenue accounted for more than 96%.
Other categories, all supporting the air conditioning industry chain enterprises:
Lingda compressor, Xinyuan Electronics (capacitors), Gree Electric (enameled wire / electronic wire), Reed High Precision (valves), Wuhu Gree Precision (castings) ......
Single-hanging air conditioning infatuation has not changed.
What about smart equipment?
In 2018, revenue of 3.109 billion yuan, revenue share of 1.57%;
In 2019, revenue of 2.141 billion yuan, revenue share of 1.08%;
2020 H1, revenue of 209 million yuan, revenue share of 0.3%.
That's it? Where is the growth? Can we count on it?
Even if the whole industry chain closed loop, black technology is mainly used to empower other businesses, but the air conditioning business is not soaring ah.
Huawei's 5G, chips, optical modules and other business cattle, but also rely on the terminal business to support ah, communications business can not hold up to change the phone, the phone was sanctioned to change the car.
IDM's Samsung is the same.
Intelligent manufacturing can not just rely on the mouth to say it, how can this support the aunt Dong's 600 billion small goal.
Count on diversification? Wash your hands of it ！！！！
In 2018, the life of electrical appliances revenue of 3.794 billion, accounting for 1.92%;
In 2019, revenue of 5.576 billion yuan, accounting for 2.81%;
2020 H1, revenue of 2.219, accounting for 3.19%.
It's hopeless, a total declaration of failure.
The most puzzling place is here, why the United States diversification can be successful, Haier diversification can be successful, mastering the core technology of Gree, but can not do?
There are many reasons:
late start, product line confusion, brand positioning is not clear, the young consumer groups and new traffic is not enough to pay attention to ......
But this is all in the bullshit, is the management and the people.
Look at Huawei, communications equipment to do the world's strongest after the production of cell phones to cell phones to be able to compete with Apple and Samsung, to design the chip quickly rushed to the world's top ten, to layout the automotive market on the rapid launch of smart cars ......
are also cross-industry, Huawei, how to be able to
It is also a cross-industry, so how can Huawei do it?
IBM helped Huawei build a modern management system;
All employees shareholding model, all employees **** enjoy the dividends of enterprise development.
The United States can be successful, is because of learning Huawei to learn the most like.
Modern enterprise management system.
After the professional manager team headed by Fang Hongbo took charge of the United States, a modern management system was built to make the best use of talent.
To the United States, for example, the division system, flexibility and independence is very high, when the company wants to develop which areas, it will set up a separate division, the new minister to take the lead in the charge, quite Huawei to concentrate on the same "wall mouth" of the flavor of the charge.
If you win, you will be rewarded, and if you lose, you will be replaced.
Secondly, the United States has implemented a "normalized" employee shareholding system.
The United States began to implement in 1999, and has formed a system of incentives covering all levels of personnel.
Only after the listing, the United States has carried out 20 incentive programs.
For the core management of the equity binding program, directly sent 11.3% of the shares, of which Fang Hongbo accounted for 2.13%; Huang Jian accounted for 1.78%; Yuan Liqun accounted for 1.42% ......
For the research and development personnel and the middle and lower levels of the backbone of the stock option incentive program, the cumulative out of the 8.98% of the shares to engage in seven phases, the incentive object up to 7740 people.
These two items alone are more than 20% of the shares, according to the existing share value of 120 billion yuan.
This is to take hundreds of billions of dollars to smash people, smashed to the core management, smashed to all levels of management, smashed to the business and technical backbone.
Not to mention that the United States is still pushing restricted stock incentive program, partner program, changing incentives.
Purpose is to smash to you convinced.
Executives and cadres are highly tied to the company's interests, and the enthusiasm for being the master of the house is high, and the fighting force is naturally ow.
The U.S. acquisition of diversification is often criticized, but under the leadership of this group of wolves, the U.S. acquisition can be digested, digested can go further, this is the most NB place of the United States.
ROE has exceeded Gree, can not explain the problem?
The modern management system and trenchless employee shareholding system is the key to the diversification of the United States.
How does Gree do it?
Ordinary employees, forget it.
From Gree's 2019 annual report, labor wages of 4.943 billion yuan, accounting for 4.86% of operating costs, corresponding to 67,113 production staff, per capita annual salary of 73,600 yuan.
The United States of America's labor wages of 9.712 billion yuan, accounting for 6.2% of operating costs, 110,568 production staff, per capita annual salary of 87,800 yuan.
The same sweating in the assembly line, why is the wage 20% less?
Do not yell ah, to give 80,000 employees to share housing.
Two years past, it is said that the first batch of 3,000 sets of talent apartments have been almost completed ......
Or Gree employees comments classic, it should be two sets, say one set, do one set.
But Gree employees should not be too discouraged, at least Gree overtime thinking of you, sales of cell phones thinking of you, live streaming thinking of you ......
Comparison of R & D costs.
Gree 5.891 billion yuan, 14,251 technicians, per capita R & D costs 413,400 yuan;
The United States 9.638 billion yuan, 13,727 R & D personnel, per capita R & D costs 702,100 yuan.
Gree employees are really the model of the old bull.
And then look at the equity incentives, poke eyes.
Gree only engaged in a time, or to engage in equity distribution reform in 2006, 609 people share the whole 5.706 million shares.
The U.S. tens of billions of dollars smashed down, can compare?
Light stick without carrots, but also diversification, but also expect to be born in Gree Yu Chengdong, He Tingbo ......
workers, do their part.
Drumming up employees is the biggest wealth of the enterprise?
Don't look at what a person says, look at what she does.
Who has benefited the most from Gree's growth?
The dealers, led by Jinghai Guarantee.
In Gree layers of the dealer system, dealers make a lot of money.
But after the online channel is king, Gree's dealer system has been reduced to a negative asset, is the biggest obstacle to Gree's expansion of online channels, dare to move the channel on the death (reduction) to you.
Not to mention that the dealers formed by the Beijing Sea guarantee, in 2006, the shareholding reform to get 10% of the shares of Gree, dividends to get soft.
But this all depends on Auntie Dong to promote, Jinghai Guarantee naturally want to return the favor, the two sides of the interests of the depth of the bundle.
In 2017, Dong Auntie group investment in Zhuhai Yinlong, with 1 billion of its own funds plus Beijing Yanzhao Huijin transfer a total of 17.46% of the shares of Zhuhai Yinlong.
If Auntie Dong's 0.74% of Gree's shares, from 2008 to 2015 dividends amounted to 208 million yuan, and the salary is only 37.02 million yuan, where is the money?
Auntie Dong claimed to be "debt" investment, Yanzhao Huijin point a praise.
In 2019, Gao Ting was given 15% of Gree's shares for 41.7 billion yuan, and successfully entered Gree, and the content of the agreement is also very interesting.
Gree's management composed of GZEN investment to 1.394 billion yuan to subscribe to Zhuhai Mingjun 6.3794% of the capital contribution, and at the same time to 1.032 billion yuan to be transferred to Zhuhai Botao Zhuhai held 4.7236% of the capital contribution, that is, a total of 2.426 billion yuan to hold 11.1% of the capital contribution of Zhuhai Mingjun, and indirectly hold 1.665% of the shares of the listed company.
According to the share price at that time, the corresponding market value of up to 5.7 billion yuan, the difference of 3.3 billion yuan is to the management of the big red packet.
At the same time, GZEN Investment also enjoys 41% of the GP share of Zhuhai Mingjun with 4.35 million yuan, not only can continue to control Gree, but also get the corresponding revenue share and fund management fees.
And in the Gezhen investment, Auntie Dong holds 95.48% of the shares, this so-called management is all represented by Auntie Dong, regardless of the amount of funding from where, Auntie Dong has become the biggest winner.
The control of Gree is far more valuable than imagined.
And just recently, Auntie Dong also said:
"We are creating the platform, can not be a successor is not my say.
There were a few people who were more promising, but once the power was released to him, there were problems. First, he didn't have the ability to control himself;
Secondly, he didn't have the spirit, he demanded himself according to the requirements of the ordinary people;
Thirdly, after he had the power, he made the power his own platform.
This is a very serious test for business."
So that's why Auntie Dong is trying to find ways to engage in "de-Zhu Jianghong", through Gree cell phones, Gree Dong Mingzhu store and other ways to bind Gree in depth?
The rest of us are in a rut, and only Auntie Dong is a clear master!
Even Wang Jingdong and Huang Hui have left, who can still block the pace of Auntie Dong?
The company's main goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, so that they can be more comfortable with the company's performance.
But the future of Gree is still ahead.