The gap between those who buy a house now and those who don't will definitely be bigger in the future!
From the point of view of self-occupation, after buying a house, do not have to worry about paying rent and worry about the landlord at any time to take back the house, if it is a loan to buy a house, the general mortgage payment and rent is almost the same, but after a few decades of the house is their own! This is also a lot of wealth.
From the investment point of view, real estate is still by far the most value-added and value-added value of a kind of investment products, as long as the location and the location of the right choice, the risk of loss is very small. In the long run, as long as the state control policy properly, administrative means and market means combined, the possibility of real estate collapse is very small.
The country's real estate market should still have two or three decades of dividend period, this stage on the car should not be a big problem, but the best time should not be now. Friends who did not buy a house before 2016 will find that prices are getting higher and higher, to the point where they can't even afford to buy a house now, and this trend won't change for a while in the future!
However, any asset and investment is risky, be careful to learn to put the eggs in several baskets. If all the assets are pressed on the property, or a certain degree of risk, after all, the real estate market circulation links, slow flow, capital occupation, long time, not conducive to the emergency time with the realization of the money.
The gap between those who bought a house and those who didn't is likely to get bigger and bigger in the future! Not only will the gap in the future get bigger, but the gap now is actually quite big. Related comments are shared below for reference.
01, 300,000 now buy a house, 10 years later how many assets?
Assuming that you buy a million dollar house now, 300,000 down payment, 700,000 loan, loan 10 years, interest rate of 5.39%, equal principal and interest repayment, the monthly payment is 7559 dollars.
So do house slaves 10 years later, have a house of their own, in accordance with the current control goals required by the average annual increase in urban housing prices of not more than 5% of the amplitude of the calculation, 10 years after the asset price of this house is 1.63 million.
That is to say, now spend 300,000, hard monthly payments 10 years later, the market price of this house is about 1.63 million.
02, 300,000 in the bank, and then rent a room to live, 10 years later how much equity?
Now if you don't take 300,000 to buy a house, but put this money in the bank to eat the interest, and save up all the monthly payments to pay off the loan very self-disciplined, then how much money is it after 10 years?
(1) principal: 300,000;
(2) interest: according to the Ningbo Bank 5-year deposit of 3.25% look at the 10-year interest of 97,500 yuan;
(3) monthly payment accumulation: 7559 * 12 * 10 = 907,080 yuan;
(4) rent expenses: 2000 * 12 * 10 = 240,000;
10 years of accumulated assets : 300,000 + 97,500 + 907,080 - 240,000 = 1,064,580 yuan, which is roughly 1.06 million yuan.
With a 10-year period, the comparison of money to buy a house and not buy a house, the final difference: 1.63 million vs. 1.06 million!
This is actually a very intuitive comparison, 10 years after the number of assets will be able to illustrate the gap between buying a house and not buying a house, and in accordance with the annual rate of increase of 5% of the calculation of the rise in housing prices, should be more conservative measurements, which in fact has not been the rise in housing prices, but the economic development of the triggered by the inflation of the asset prices caused by the natural rise, the back of the annual rise of 5% reasonability will be illustrated.
This is only a 10-year comparison, and if you put it out to 20 years, the gap between those who buy houses and those who don't will be even wider.
01, the basic understanding of inflation
From the reform and opening up to now, the economy is inflation, or deflation? No need to look at the statistics, with our intuitive feeling know that the past 40 years, there are more than 95% of the time more than inflation.
As China's economic volume continues to grow, the economic resilience will be stronger, the development trend of economic stabilization is still difficult to stop, that the economic situation in the next 10 years is still probable or will be dominated by inflation.
At present, countries with excessive currency has been an indisputable fact, in this trend, excessive currency depreciation caused by price increases is irreversible.
That is to say, in the world jungle, at present and in the future for a foreseeable period of time, the world monetary system is difficult to undergo a fundamental transformation of the situation, the price rise is irreversible, housing prices as a kind of prices, the upward trend will also be irreversible.
02, the past inflation rate analysis
From the past 10 years, that is, 2010-2019, the average inflation rate is 4.92% (the previous answer said 4.59%, due to the table did not look at the data, remembered the wrong, corrected here), basically is the annual average of 5% of the look, which is more balanced inflation rate!
This is the first time I've ever seen the same thing.
Why is the property market control target set at no more than 5% per year?
Looking at the data in the table above makes it clear! In fact, this amplitude is no longer the house prices are rising, but the price increase due to inflation, which is a natural reaction, but also after the economic volume increases year by year, the amount of monetary inputs increased, resulting in an irreversible increase in the price of the results.
03, the future of inflation rate analysis
Although 4.92% is the past data, but avoided the higher inflation rate of 2008, 2009, this 4.92% is still a more balanced inflation rate.
After this year's epidemic, the inflation rate came out at the end of the year, and the average inflation rate from 2011-2020 may be over 5%, but with the gradual recovery of the economy, it may come down again from the year after.
Overall, the average annual inflation rate of 4.92% in the past 10 years is a great reference for the average annual inflation rate of the next 10 years, and under the characteristics and structure of China's economy, the inflation rate in the next 10 years should be about the same as this data.
It should be said that assets are the most intuitive gap, but in addition to the asset gap, there are many tangible gaps.
01, 10 years living quality is often different
Renting and living in their own house, living quality is often different. Rental housing quality and living experience is often worse, most of the landlords are still not willing to invest more money in housing comfort facilities and equipment, facilities and equipment may be some of the "cheap goods", not good, high failure rate, the tenant often can only "will be" live, and the tenant can only "will be" live, and the tenant can only "will be" live, and the tenant can only "will be" live. This is not a good idea, but it is a good idea to have a good idea of what you are getting yourself into.
02, renting feels like you're drifting, owning a house is more of a sense of belonging
Renting a house is very unstable, the landlord wants to take it back to live with yourself, or sell the house to early termination of the contract, you have to look for a place, it's hard to have a sense of belonging.
If you live in your own house, no one can drive you away; in a city, there is a greater sense of belonging and identity, it is easier to establish their own circle, more psychologically integrated into a city.
03, additional attributes of the big difference
The more typical is to do the bank credit loan, the same income people, one is owned homes, another is rented, the former may be able to apply for about 300,000 yuan of credit, while the latter one rents a home, it may be difficult to apply for 50,000 yuan of credit.
04. The difference in soft power
For example, there is a big difference in the success rate of business people who have a house and don't have a house to sign in front of their business partners. In the eyes of secular businessmen, having a house represents both a stronger economic ability, but also on behalf of the other side of the lower risk of running away, as the saying goes, "run away from the monk, can't run away from the temple."
Comprehensively, the asset gap is very large, and other aspects of the gap is also very large, it is recommended to have the financial ability of the new family, can buy as early as possible early to buy, temporarily can not buy, but also want to think of these gaps, rational planning of their own finances, as early as possible to buy a house.
01, the correct view of home ownership
Jack Ma said in 2017, 8 years later, the price of housing like onions!
This sentence may have affected a part of the people, if these people were ready to buy a house at that time, but in the end, they did not buy the young people, by now before going to bed at night is estimated to greet him a thousand times.
Similarly, many people now face the property market after the epidemic, do not know what to do? Some people, including some bigwigs, are saying that there is a surplus of houses, and that houses may be difficult in the future.
They may be well-intentioned, but the question is what is your real need? You're afraid of being jerked around, but the question is do you have hair now? What's the problem with being worried about being jerked around if you don't have any hair? If the wool is really jacked on a large scale, the "house sister", "landlord" how to do, 9.6 million square kilometers of land built so many houses to be jacked off how much hair? The first time I saw this was when I was in the middle of the night, and it was the first time I saw it in the morning.
Therefore, you can listen and read more, but you also need to think and analyze more according to your own situation.
02, home ownership advice
Just one sentence: what is the demand for what to do!
The purchase of self-occupation, to find ways to buy a good supporting house, living comfort is happiness; the children to go to school, go to buy a school district, to solve the problem of children's schooling can not be delayed; the improvement of a family to live in, go to buy a bigger house, an early change of the new home, and so on.
In short, according to their own needs and priorities to home ownership is often not wrong.
Therefore, the gap between those who buy homes and those who don't will grow wider in the future, and over time, this gap is likely to get wider and wider. In the context of the continued development of the national economy, housing prices as a price, the probability of all will rise with inflation, only the real estate industry has been adjusted from the state of rapid development to a steady state of development, the future rate of increase in housing prices will slow down, but the real estate industry and housing prices are still robust, there is a demand for reasonable home ownership.
Buy a house! Buy a house! The first thing you need to do is to buy a house! The first problem that modern people solve after integrating into society is to buy a house. But now the price of housing is high, the purchase of a home really have to pay a small price. Many people do not buy, do not buy, afraid, afraid. So they choose to rent a house to live.
For renting, the most intuitive benefit is that you do not need to pay a down payment, which can be said to give many people a reason to rent. However, renting an apartment for the rest of your life, although it is a hopeless choice, in fact, it is also a self-deceiving choice. The deception is that renting an apartment still leaves nothing in the end, and all the money is spent on rent. Because the rent will also grow in the future, the proportion of income is expected to be able to keep, such a state of support for a lifetime of money is also quite a lot of money.
For those of us who have already bought a home, the property market is still very favorable. Although the various control policies are still deepening, but the price of housing is still resisting the pressure to continue to rise. It can be said that for those who have bought a home, their assets are growing. The continued growth of assets is the most direct benefit of buying a home.
Since those who have already bought a home are going to get the benefits, those who choose to rent are going to keep paying. This way there is going to be a big gap between those who have homes and those who don't in the time to come.
Let's take the analogy of a $1 million house now with a 20-year loan, and the value of the house goes up to $8 million at the end. We throw out the cost asset also increases in value by more than $6 million.
But for those who do not buy a house, now every month's rent is almost caught up with the monthly payment, 20 years later, we spent the same money, only their own less shelled out in the beginning of the 300,000 down payment. If you save for 20 years you can eventually take out 600,000 dollars with interest. But 20 years later to buy a house 600,000 down payment is far from enough. So the gap is out, although the buyer is a set of self-occupied house, but it is also considered to leave something, if you do some small business mortgage can also make some money.
Here, the old J is not trying to advocate buying a house how good, but the trend is so, now do not buy in the future will pay more costs to buy a house, expected sooner or later to buy a house, or is supposed to be early out of the good ah.
The difference will be magnified N times!
An example:
A and B are also in a second-tier city, A man has 1 million cash, B man also has 1 million cash.
A choose down payment of 1 million mortgage 500,000 to buy a 89 square feet of house. The unit price of 17,000 yuan / flat. B man chose to save 5 years of bank finance, assuming that the interest rate of 5% per annum (now generally in the 3.8 or so)
5 years later, the gap between the two may be 2 times or even 5 times
1, the development of the second-tier cities is relatively fast, then the construction of a large amount of money needed for a city, then the source of the funds is the best and the fastest way to source from the The best and fastest way to get money is from land auctions. As the land price continues to increase, it will drive the price of the new disk (flour is expensive, bread will be cheap?).
2, a second-tier city every year the population is flowing, these people are the so-called receiver. After all, people go higher, many third and fourth tier cities or rural youth will go to the first and second tier cities. With such an influx of population coming in, then the property market will be more stable. (There is a receiver, it will rise)
3, leverage! A buy a house with leverage to buy a house, the principal is only 1 million + 5 years of interest. When the total price of the house rose to 300, in fact, A actual profit at least 50%. When the property is sold, A hand probably estimated 2.7 million (including the principal). Then B only 1.25 million (including the principal)
The above is only a projection in the second-tier cities. If you are in a first-tier city, the gap may be even wider. Of course, don't get hung up on whether the numbers I've expressed above are correct or not, the meaning is understood on the line. If you have to be a bull's-eye, you can also project your city's house price increase and the ratio of bank finance on your own.
People who buy a house are living in it and have a stable home. The people who did not buy a house to rent someone else's house, others want to take back on the recovery, you have to go outside to find a room, well annoying. If your friends are looking for your address, you have to give temporary notice, otherwise where to find you? The children's schooling is also a problem, this school to that school affects the results of a lot of pressure, certainly not keep up with the learning, children how to do?
The gap between those who bought a house and those who didn't will become bigger and bigger in the future! Because you can not earn money to catch up with the speed of rising prices, like a marathon running race, running first and second behind the third, fourth and fifth will be with the time elongation, the gap is getting bigger and bigger reason.
Nowadays, young people buy houses, most of them pay a down payment, rely on mortgage payments as a house slave for decades, before owning their own house. This traditional method is quite clumsy and inefficient, equal to the old ox pulling the cart, thankless, long time, night long dream more, at any time may be unemployed, resulting in the risk of breaking the mortgage, when the house was repossessed by the bank, a lifetime of white work, the basket of water is empty!
According to the news media, a Shenzhen bank manager said: 2020 March a bank outlet mortgage break about 3,000 people, about 16,000 people in May, a branch! The number of ali foreclosed houses in the country reached 820,000, an increase of 100 times over the same period last year, mainly caused by the broken house.
To buy a house, you need to take shortcuts, detours, brainstorming, workarounds, and you can easily get a house! I just rely on the "down payment into the full payment" this kind of means, three to five years, to pay the full payment to own their own house. I now have five houses, four in a first-tier city and one in a third-tier city, and I don't have to pay for them, they are all bought out!
How can you make a down payment into a full payment? Let's say you want to buy a 3 million house, the down payment of 30% even taxes and fees and charges to spend 1 million, this 1 million if you invest in Tianhuang, according to the appreciation function of Tianhuang, three years may become 3 million, ten years may become 10 million, than the bank interest, financial management, the fund return is much larger! This is not bragging, is determined by the antiques and antiques of this profitable industry factors, this is the "down payment into full payment" principle: down payment - Tianhuang - full payment.
3 years later, you can pay the full amount of 3 million to buy this house, do not have to go to the bank to pay enough for 30 years to have this house, the speed of 10 times faster than before, lying on the earning of this house! If you use the traditional method to pay for the building, from the age of 30 to 60 years old, for the old man, hunchback, gray hair to have this set of dilapidated house is about to become a dangerous building.
And with my "down payment to full payment" method, you will have a brand new house at 33 years old, 27 years ahead of schedule, which is a real possession, the real estate license does not need to be staked in the bank, live in peace of mind, and sleep comfortably!
I did more than twenty years of Tianhuang business, sold more than a dozen Tianhuang stone, the price range of several hundred thousand to several million, and thus have the money to afford 5 suites, according to the current price of housing Shi calculation, the total price of more than 20 million, and buy the house is basically a one-time payment, do not have to pay the mortgage, do not have to be a house slave. So, to buy a house, first buy Tianhuang after buying a house! Tianhuang is the nemesis of broken mortgage!
Because Tianhuang is the fastest appreciating collection, but also a popular antique collection, has never fallen in price. Tianhuang appreciated from 5,000 yuan a gram in 1995 to 200,000 yuan a gram now in 2019, and may appreciate to 1 million yuan a gram in another 10 years.
And the price of gold is basically in place, not much change, with the Tianhuang distance is getting farther and farther, simply can not catch up. Gold in front of Tianhuang is a poor man, a poor look, it can not even reach 500 dollars a gram, really a lifetime when the poor, poor!
In January 2017, Xiamen, Fujian, an auction, a weight of 1725 grams of Tianhuang stone, shot 392 million yuan of the sky, the unit price of 220,000 yuan a gram, Tianhuang's degree of hotness, can be seen!
In addition to investing in Tianhuang is a safe and reliable low-risk project, not like what other stocks, futures, brick-and-mortar stores and other industries as a loss of a mess, nothing, nothing left, indebtedness into the "old man"! Because Tianhuang in your hands, always have the opportunity to turn the tide, never lose, steady income! As the saying goes, in the hands of food heart does not panic, in the palm of the treasure gas fixed leisure! The following is my first-tier city 4 sets of house real estate license photo:
Will, with the stock is actually the same, if up, that is up by the square, if down is also down by the square, this year's market is still relatively stable, if you want to live on their own, the hands of the money or to buy, after all, the house is a fixed asset preservation of the value of the future of China's economy is certainly a trend towards the good, if under the name of If you are still renting a house, you have to think of a problem, your landlord is not taking your monthly rent in the monthly payment.
Of course, it will get bigger and bigger, buy a house without a loan can, if you buy a house and a loan, less okay, more than not only unhappy, there is pressure, so that it will be and did not buy a house to open the gap between rich and poor, as long as the struggle and hard work, you'll find the same income did not buy a house is basically no worries, buy a house is very poor ......
Purchase a house and did not buy a house in the future gap will not get bigger and bigger, depending on the trend of our real estate market, we have no perspective to watch, and even more critical point is that we treat the resources on the decision-making whether to buy a house is the key point of location.
In the choice of cities do not choose the highest, do not choose the lowest, choose a second-tier city average price of 20,000 per square meter, to buy a set of 100 square feet of the house cost 2 million, down payment of 600,000 loans of 1.4 million loan interest rate of 5.63% loan for 20 years each month need to pay the mortgage of 9,700 yuan, the house in the supply of 20 years after the house is already! belongs to all of our own assets, most of our second-tier cities are still in the upward trend, but the upward trend is basically controlled in the 5% area, so after 20 years of our total real estate reached the value of 4.2 million where we can use 600,000 dollars to pry 2.2 million.
Without buying a house, we take the 600,000 to do bank financial products, now the highest return on bank financial products for 4%, 20 years later, we total **** amounted to 1.18 million yuan. We take the monthly payment of 9700 per month also help deposit finance to calculate, every month we save the amount has reached 10,032 yuan 20 years total *** deposit = 10032 × 240 = 2407680 two funds add up to a total of about 3.59 million, in addition, we have to take into account that there is no house in the case of the house, but also to rent a house every month, the situation, the second-tier city 100 square House, usually rent in 3500 yuan 20 years total **** need to pay 840,000 rent, so after 20 years without buying a house total value of 2.75 million yuan.
4.2 million compared to 2.75 million is obviously more cost-effective to buy a house, but we only take into account the case of housing appreciation, and did not take into account the case of housing prices, in the future of China's real estate market is gradually saturated, the price of the house if the rate of decline of 5% per year, then the purchase of a house, obviously not as good as our deposit is more cost-effective to buy a house, the gap between the purchase of houses depends on The gap between the purchase of the house depends on the value of the house after 20 years, our wealth will skyrocket a lot, and the price of the house fell after our wealth instead of shrinking, which is the embodiment of the benefits of the deposit.
Housing whether up or down, in the next 20 years, the real estate market will gradually appear after the difficult thing it, in 2020 a set of houses second-hand buying and selling transaction time is usually cyclical for 6 months, after 20 years, we have a house more and more people, and the country is also constantly regulating the situation of the vacancy rate of the house, after 20 years the house is difficult to liquidate, if there are some special circumstances, the house can be used to buy and sell the house. Difficult to realize the cash, if something special happens, we hold the deposit is very good to change our current special situation. Cash is better than real estate in an era when cash is king, and it is now and will be in the future.
Second: Buying a house gives us the advantage of having resources that are not available to us without buying a house.
Buying a house gives us a great advantage in terms of resources, and as I mentioned, the process of buying a house has become one of the most important indicators of success in our society.
For those who buy a house, they have the top resources to match the marriage in the current society want to get married, have a house, have a car, have a deposit, which the house is occupied by the most important part of us, and for those who do not have a house want to get married, it is through their own very hard work can be the case. In addition to marriage, there is the problem of children's education in the future, and now buy a house a lot is also for children's education and no house, it is very difficult to highlight in the city, unless it is into a private school, medical needs we are also very necessary, after the purchase of a house, the household registration falls in the local city to buy the corresponding social security, to give us the reimbursement of the magnitude of the larger, usually cold and flu or even major diseases The first thing you need to do is to get your hands on some of the most popular products and services in the world, and you'll be able to do it all on your own.
With the longer time, the house brings us the advantage of resources will become more and more obvious, after all, marriage and small children school medical care in these three aspects of life is a necessary stage, small children's schooling no public school, we need to pay the sky-high tuition every year, in addition to the hospital did not reimbursement, you have to pay a lot of money every month we pay for this, so in the purchase of a house lease after the gap is getting bigger and bigger, mainly reflected in the advantageous share of resources.
Third: the way of life of the property market to buy a house is temporarily incomparable.
2020 have been talking about the era of cash for the king, the house from our traditional concept to watch, it is true that the annual rise of 5% to 600,000 funds to pry 2.2 million annual return of about 18%, which sounds very eye-catching. But we can not guarantee that the house has been in the upward trend, even if it is a second-tier city in China now there are some second-tier cities in the decline in the price of the house, Foshan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou and other second-tier cities, the price of the house is really to bring us wealth on the value-added, while the price of the house down to bring us wealth are not all value-added, but also shrinking the situation.
With 600,000 cash in hand, now in the case of such a wide range of investment channels, our return on investment as long as more than 5.18% per year can outperform inflation, in the current people's investment concept of return less than 10% or more will not be rashly chosen as an investment, 10% return compared to real estate has just been calculated at 18% per year, a difference of 8%, but we have to Taking into account, this is the entry point to choose the return rate of investment channels, and we choose to have more channels to invest in the higher the risk of the return rate is greater, as investment in real estate, as there are up and down. So the hand holds the resources of cash is that we buy the house temporarily can not give us mention, the benefits of justice, the funds casually move casually change the flow, and not like the price of housing does not sell it will not bring us the most straight forward earnings can be considerable. The first thing you need to do is to get your hands on this $600,000 in funds, which may be more than 10 times more than the normal situation, the hand can be liquidity become more.
Fourth: Years later, our real estate market, whether it is worth buying, the house will be able to rise.
● The future of China's real estate market will not appear to a very considerable situation, after all, in the past three years, the real estate market has been the state of being pressured, the potential for rising have been gradually shrinking in the future of China's birthrate will continue to decline in the 2029 births and deaths of the population will be maintained at the same level, and a more critical point is that in 2030, there will be negative growth in the 2030s. Negative growth in 2030, the ageing rate of 60 years old has reached 24% in 2030, the rate of increase will not decrease in the future. Left to our real estate value added space is only the last decade of the population is decreasing, it is unlikely that the demand for the house will become larger.
● urbanization rate in the next ten years to reach the national goal of 70%, 10 years after China's birth population has appeared negative growth, the city's population is basically reached the peak of the inflow of the period in the future, everyone already has a house, do not need to buy a house, in the case of wanting to increase the price of the house is very difficult to be a sideways market or a slow decline in the situation.
The future development potential of China's real estate market will be further narrowed, after 2030, even if there will not be a decline in prices, there will be a price, the state of things gradually revealed, after all, the population is becoming less and less, the need for housing is also less and less people, have purchased a house on the purchase of the early purchase, can not afford to buy you can not afford to buy, so the house in the future! The potential for appreciation is not as considerable as we thought.
V: Summary
The real estate market in the future of the gap in the increasingly large, mainly reflected in the perspective of our view, if the perspective of the money to watch the future appreciation of the house ideally, can be reached to get 4.2 million, but does not exclude the real estate market just mentioned the market price of the market sideways or the price of the decline in the situation, so in the value of the value will not be the difference. The value will not be very different.
And holding 600,000 of the funds can do other business financial investment, if you seize an opportunity, may let our wealth rose 10 times 8 times, things eventually we can realize their own financial freedom situation, this is the house real estate can not bring us considerable.
The most obvious gap is
In the middle of the city, the people who do not have a house have been renting, constantly looking for rent, constantly changing houses. Making money just to pay the rent.
People who have bought a house don't have to worry about rising rents. There is a warm harbor when you are tired of running around.