What aspects of uncertainty consumption theory have been developed from deterministic consumption theory

The consumption function is based on the proportionality of an individual's consumption to his or her income. The study of consumption is centered around the consumption function. Since Keynes began, the search for a form of consumption function that accurately describes consumer behavior has been an important proposition in macroeconomics, among which the main ones are Keynes's absolute income hypothesis, Dusenbery's relative income hypothesis, Modiglian's life-cycle theory of consumption, and Friedman's permanent income hypothesis, and Hall's introduction of the rational expectations factor into the life-cycle and permanent income hypotheses has given the consumption function its modern form, with the ***Similarities all utilize the income tool to explain changes in consumption, the difference is in the assumptions about the external environment and intrinsic motivation of consumption behavior, Keynes's seminal contribution is more directly overthrowing Say's Law, which makes the existence of involuntary unemployment possible and explained, and makes the elimination of involuntary unemployment and recession through fiscal and monetary policies possible. China's economic reform has not yet been long, and the gradual reform of "crossing the river by feeling the stones" has obvious Chinese characteristics. The dual-track system has made the market track and the planned track co-exist for a long time, and the market economy is not well developed, so consumers do not have enough time to form the consumption behavior under the full market decision. The relative closeness of the countryside has also created a small peasant economy in which farmers are self-sufficient, and their consumption behavior is y influenced by traditional Confucian culture, which is different from that of urban residents and even more different from that of residents in Western countries. In terms of the external environment (budget constraints, liquidity constraints, etc.) and the internal motivation (rational subjects, utility maximization, etc.) of consumer behavior, these neoclassical consumption functions are not universal to Chinese farmers. These neoclassical consumption functions are not universally applicable to Chinese farm households, and various theoretical hypotheses about the consumption behavior of farm households have to be further tested. Therefore, in addition to the consumption function, multivariate statistical methods have been more and more commonly used in the field of consumption research. In this paper, we analyze the structural characteristics of the consumption-income structure of Chinese farmers by establishing a typical correlation model of consumption-income of Chinese farmers, explaining consumption expenditures in terms of income variables, and quantitatively identifying the correlation and degree of interaction between each variable. -income structural characteristics. II. According to Keynes, "Whether we look at human nature a priori or at the concrete facts of experience, there is a basic psychological law that we can be sure of. Generally speaking, when income increases, people will increase their consumption, but the increase in consumption is not as great as the increase in their income. ...... "1 A great deal of theoretical and empirical research has been done on the consumption function in the past, without jeopardizing Keynes's central point: that consumption (and saving) is affected by current income rather than being independent of current income. independent of current income, this paper still takes Keynes's assumption as the basic basis for variable selection. However, the sample data are cross-sectional because it is not appropriate to apply information about income differences in the same period to income changes over time, and two problems are faced: (1) the aggregation problem: the aggregation problem can be ignored only if the marginal propensities to consume are very close for households across incomes; and (2) even if the aggregation problem is not taken into account, applying information about differences in incomes from cross-sectional household budget information to time-series changes in income, the problem is even greater. (2) From an econometric point of view, time series data suffer from serial correlation and non-stationarity, and cross-sectional data from the same aggregate overcomes these defects in addition to ensuring the homogeneity of the information. Based on the above reasons, four indicators reflecting the source of net income are selected as the "impact group": X1 - wage income, X2 - net income from household business, X3 - property income, X4 - transfer income; eight indicators reflecting the source of net income are selected as the "impact group". Eight indicators reflecting the consumption expenditure of family life as "expenditure group": Y1-food, Y2-clothing, Y3-housing, Y4-household equipment and services, Y5-household equipment and services, Y6-household equipment and services, Y7-household equipment and services, and Y8-household equipment and services. Y4 - household equipment and services, Y5 - medical care, Y6 - transportation and communication, Y7 - cultural, educational and recreational goods and services, and Y8 - other goods and services. Specifically, the inter-provincial cross-section data of mainland China in 2002 (i.e., 31 provinces and cities in mainland China, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) are used as the sample, which are taken from the 2003 China Statistical Yearbook. III. Establishment of the model (a) bias correlation analysis bias correlation coefficient is a measure of the degree of linear correlation between a certain two variables among multiple variables under the condition of control of other variables, which is essentially the correlation between the residual deviations in terms of the control variables. In a multivariate setting, he excludes the factor that the variables vary with the other variables, and may differ greatly from the simple correlation coefficient numerically, or even with the opposite sign, but the partial correlation coefficient is used more reliably to portray the intrinsic connection between two economic variables. Based on the sample data, the one-to-one partial correlation coefficients of X and Y variables with each other are calculated as follows. Table 1 Analysis of partial correlation coefficient Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8X10.14640.4820***0.0599***-0.1358-0.1502-0.07260.4159**0.0587X20.06450.3205*0.1975-0.3747**0.11240.0228- 0.07520.5352***X3-0.2572-0.00220.04160.3776**0.4605***-0.4120**-0.28090.5155***X4-0.0611-0.2181-0.18170.4814***-0.06130.0379- 0.27780.1660 Note: ****** indicates significant at 0.15, 0.10, and 0.05 levels, respectively. The overall correlation level of the above table is not high, mainly because more variables make the bias correlation process is controlled by a little more factors, and the controlled factors will exist between the intricate relationship, so it can be appropriate to reduce the level of significance, which at the same time also happens to validate the limitations of the consumption function applied to the consumption of Chinese farmers. It can be seen that the correlation between farmers' wage income and clothing and cultural, educational and recreational goods and services, property income and health care expenditures, transfer income and household equipment and services expenditures is relatively strong, and those other goods and services that are not included also play an important role, indicating that in addition to the seven types of consumption expenditures classified, there are still other important expenditure variables in the consumption expenditures of the agricultural households that are highly correlated with the income level. correlation. (II) The establishment of typical correlation model Typical correlation model reveals the relationship between two groups of multivariate variables, i.e., the first typical variable is proposed in each of the two groups of variables, and the pair of typical variables has the maximum correlation coefficient r1, which is known as the first group of typical variables; after the second typical variable is proposed in each of the groups of variables, and the correlation component r2 reflected by them is only second to r1. ...... and so on until the correlation coefficient rp of the last set of typical variables reaches the minimum, called the last set of typical variables. It transforms the correlation between the original two groups of variables into a study of the correlation between several typical variables proposed in each group, simplifying the analysis by reducing the number of variables, and thus is widely used. Usually, the smaller the number of pairs of typical variables is, the easier it is to explain, which is mainly judged by the significance test of typical correlation coefficients. According to the sample data, the typical correlation coefficients and tests proposed by the two groups of variables X and Y are obtained as follows. Table 2 Typical correlation coefficients and their errors No. Typical correlation coefficients (r) r2 standard error eigenvalue 10.98220.96480.006527.306220.83300.69390.05592.266730.76310.58220.07631.3938 It can be seen that the first and the second pairs of the typical variables have a stronger explanatory ability. The r2 data show that 96.48%, 69.39% and 58.22% of the information in the "Expenditure Group" can be explained by the corresponding variables in the "Influence Group", and the correlation coefficients of the three typical coefficients are relatively high, which indicates that the corresponding typical variables are closely related to each other. All three typical correlation coefficients are relatively high, indicating that the corresponding typical variables are closely related to each other, but to determine the significance of the correlation of the typical variables, it is necessary to carry out the test of the typical correlation coefficient. Table 3 Typical correlation coefficient test table No. Critical value of the calculated value of degrees of freedom () Significance 132140.976645.91***22159.758332.67***31231.651121.03*** It can be seen that these three pairs of typical variables have passed the statistical test, indicating that the correlation between the corresponding typical variables is significant, and the "impact group" is able to explain the correlation between the corresponding typical variables. The "expenditure group" can be explained by the "impact group". In view of the comparability of the original variables, the standardized typical correlation coefficients are used to establish the typical correlation model as follows. Table 4 Typical correlation model No. Typical correlation model 123 (C) Typical correlation analysis According to the importance of typical variables and the size of the coefficients, from the establishment of the typical correlation model, it can be seen that the degree of China's farmers' consumption expenditures subject to the changes in various factors of income can be comprehensively described by three pairs of typical correlation variables. The first pair of typical variables separates household equipment and services and other goods and services from other types of expenditures (with typical loadings of 0.3398 and 0.3937, respectively), and shows the greatest correlation with wage income (with a corresponding typical loading of 0.6530). The second pair of typical variables separates other goods and services from arts, education, recreational goods and services and health care in various types of consumption expenditures (typical loadings of 1.7973, -1.4119, and 1.0168, respectively), and the corresponding explanatory variables in the "Impact Group" are mainly wage income and property income ( Typical loadings are -1.2662 and 1.0385, respectively). The third pair of typical variables mainly separates household equipment and services and clothing expenditures from other expenditures (typical loadings of 3.8816 and -1.0975, respectively), and the largest correlations are presented by wage income and transfer income (typical loadings of -1.4338 and 1.1614). IV. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (a) China's rural consumption structure is in transition, and the construction of rural infrastructure should be accelerated. From the typical correlation model between the living consumption expenditures and net incomes of farm households, the expenditures on household equipment and services, mainly including color TVs, refrigerators and washing machines, are most closely related to the wage incomes of farm households, which indicates that the wage incomes (labor remuneration) that the farm households usually receive are mainly used to purchase household equipment and services. According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, the close relationship between the expenditure on household equipment and services and wage income indicates that China's rural areas are now gradually moving into a well-off society, and that farmers' demand for major consumer durables, including color TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines, is increasing, and that the overall consumption structure of the rural areas is in a stage of transformation. According to Lin Yifu, "it is not the income level, but the lack of infrastructure that is the main reason for limiting the realization of the consumption will of the majority of rural residents" and "to fundamentally alleviate the problem of general overcapacity in the national economy, accelerating the construction of rural infrastructure is the correct policy choice". "(3), are undoubtedly well-founded, and the results of the empirical analysis of the article support this view. Therefore, the important task of building a well-off rural society in an all-round way is to optimize the structure of peasants' living and consumption expenditures by adjusting the structure of rural public **** expenditures, increasing investment in infrastructure construction and rural industrial goods, and raising the overall level of rural consumption. (ii) The "exogenous" consumption of rural households is growing, and the construction of a rural social security system should be accelerated. The correlation between the higher-level cultural, educational and recreational goods and services and medical care expenditures of farmers' living consumption expenditures and their wage incomes (labor compensation) and property incomes (capital gains) is particularly strong, and much of the actual disposable income is used for these higher-level consumptions. It is obvious that Chinese farmers' actual income levels have not yet reached this level of demand, and Maslow's law of the hierarchy of needs has been obviously and seriously distorted. The law of Maslow's hierarchy of needs has obviously been seriously distorted. From the model, it can be seen that the typical loads of expenditure on cultural, educational and recreational goods and services and wage income are negative at the same time, but actually show a positive correlation, and the direct consequence of the reduction of wage income is the rapid reduction of farmers' expenditure on cultural, educational and recreational goods and services. The only explanation for the distortion of Maslow's law of hierarchy of needs is the existence of "involuntary" and "exogenous" consumption of Chinese farmers, which is a kind of "mandatory" consumption imposed by the external environment. It is a kind of "compulsory" consumption imposed by the external environment. In fact, as a result of institutional changes (especially the reform of the education system), the cost of education borne by farmers has been increasing, mainly from the increase in tuition fees and other education expenditures; 70 percent of the country's 190 million students receiving compulsory education are in rural areas, and the vast majority of these education expenditures (98 percent) are borne by county and township finances (28 percent) and by the farmers themselves (70 percent), but almost all of the funds spent on compulsory education by the townships come from the county and township finances, and almost all of the funds spent on compulsory education come from the township finances. However, the funds for compulsory education in the townships come almost entirely from taxes and fees paid by the peasants, so the inputs for compulsory education are almost entirely borne by the peasants. In the case of higher education, it is needless to say that in many areas, the joy of their children going to university has been turned into a tragedy, and the peasants have had to cut back on other expenditures in order to satisfy their children's need to go to school, forcibly distorting Maslow's Law of Needs. In addition, after the dismantling of the traditional rural public health-care system in the planned economy, farmers' health-care expenditures were mainly borne by themselves, which was reflected in the rapid increase in health-care expenditures by farming households, whose increased wage and property incomes were mainly used for health-care expenditures. High medical costs often make farmers fall into the "out of poverty - back to poverty" strange circle, "small illnesses, etc., big illnesses, etc., serious illnesses, etc., death" has become one of the strange status quo in the countryside, the negative effect of the mandatory induced by the system of changes in the growth of consumption expenditure of farmers has been The negative effect of the mandatory induced growth of consumption expenditure in rural households has gradually appeared, and the negative correlation between health care expenditure and income has been shown, and the dilemma of farmers "having no money to cure illnesses and incurring debts" has been reflected in the model. In order to build a well-off rural society and coordinate urban and rural economic development, we should speed up the construction of a social security system including rural health care and education support system. after the SARs epidemic, the construction of health care system in rural areas is being stepped up, but the construction of education support system needs to be strengthened, and the construction of education support system for rural areas, especially the rural middle- and low-income classes, cannot be delayed, or the rural areas will become what Li Changping describes as the "rural areas". Otherwise, the countryside will really become a situation described by Li Changping as "farmers are really suffering, the countryside is really poor, and agriculture is really dangerous". (iii) The share of food expenditure is declining, but overall rural consumption is still low. The r2 of the third group of typical correlation variables is not high, and the explanatory power of the "influence group" is not very strong, which indicates that the consumption expenditure of this group is also influenced by other factors besides income level. However, it can still be seen that the importance of food expenditure is declining, which is consistent with the continuous decline of Engel's coefficient of rural residents since the reform and opening up. But the status of some basic living consumption expenditures such as housing and clothing is still prominent, and they are negative at the same time as the typical loads of some income types, which again shows that although the overall consumption structure of Chinese rural households is in a transition stage, and the consumption structure is constantly improving, it has not yet undergone a fundamental change, and the reason for this still lies in the low level of income and uncertainty (which is mainly manifested in the downturn of the net income from household operation and the instability of the wage income). of instability, leading to their typical loadings are both less than 0). This fully demonstrates that there is still a long way to go in promoting farmers' income and stimulating rural consumption. In conclusion, as far as Chinese farmers' consumption is concerned, the motivation to save for housing, education and medical care is strong, with education accounting for the largest proportion. Since these motivations have nothing to do with interest generation at all, lowering the savings interest rate and levying an interest tax will not have any effect on farmers' consumption, which has already been strongly proved by the central bank's successive interest rate cuts. The root of the problem lies in the low level of farmers' income and the high level of "exogenous" expenditures. Under such a two-tier pressure, farmers have a strong incentive to save for education and medical care, and usually increase their income in disguise by scrimping on food and clothing and frugal spending, thus limiting current consumption. Therefore, the fundamental solution to the problem still lies in raising the income level of farmers and promoting their income increase on the one hand; on the other hand, we should set up as soon as possible an education support system and a health care system for the rural areas, especially for the middle- and low-income classes, and provide low-interest and subsidized education credits with increased government inputs to improve the rural social security system, so as to rectify those "mandatory" consumption problems that have been brought about by the institutional changes. "Compulsory" consumer spending, especially those less economically developed areas of the land transfer system reform should be cautious, the land on the local farmers undoubtedly provides a natural security, not to be lightly moved.