The industry believes that the importance and strategic significance of 5G are obvious, but operators are only willing to build networks on a large scale if they find the growth point of 5G revenue. Therefore, the construction rhythm of 5G network will be driven by applications, and the mining of application scenarios will play an important role in 5G investment. With the promotion of 5G commercialization, application scenario market products are expected to accelerate. Optimistic about the investment value of 5G in the next 2-3 years, it is suggested to lay out 5G along "three bright lines" and "one dark line".
Event-driven China 5G license was officially issued
On June 6th, 20 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued 5G licenses to four operators: China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Radio and Television. The issuance of 5G licenses in China skips temporary licenses and trial commercial licenses, and directly issues commercial licenses. The acceleration of the 5G official commercial license exceeded market expectations.
Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, stressed that after the issuance of the 5G license, we will, as always, welcome foreign-funded enterprises to actively participate in the 5G market in China, and * * * seek common development in China and share the achievements of the 5G development in China. After the issuance of the 5G license, Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei, ZTE, Intel and Qualcomm all indicated that they would actively support the commercial construction and deployment of 5G in China.
After the licensing, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to promote the commercialization of 5G mobile phones and speed up the progress of 5G from the practical application. On June 6th, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the Ministry of Commerce, issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and the Smooth Circulation of Resources (20 19-2020). The notice requires that the commercialization of 5G mobile phones be actively promoted. Encourage the research and development and marketing of 5G mobile phones. Strengthen the integrated application of new generation information technologies such as artificial intelligence, biological information, new display and virtual reality on mobile phones. Promote the research and development of office and entertainment application software, and improve the application service function of mobile phone products. In addition, the website of Beijing Communications Administration in June 10 shows that with the joint efforts of the whole industry, Beijing's 5G infrastructure construction has made gratifying progress. By the end of May, Beijing Tower Company had delivered 4,983 5G base stations to three basic operators, and three basic telecommunications companies had completed the construction of 4,300 5G base stations. At present, the main coverage areas are urban core areas, parks related to the Winter Olympics, World Expo, Daxing Airport and typical application sites.
There are indications that the construction of 5G infrastructure is accelerating. In April, the national output of mobile communication base stations was 57.498 million new roads, up by 172.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10.6 percentage points higher than that of last month. The performance of the communication industry is positively related to the capital expenditure of operators, and the large-scale investment in 5G network construction will drive the performance improvement of the communication sector. At present, the capital expenditure of domestic operators in 20 19 years has increased for the first time since 20 16 years, in which the capital expenditure of wireless terminals broke out first and became a structural focus.
Industry Prospects The application market is expected to accelerate after 5G.
The importance and strategic significance of 5G are obvious, but operators are only willing to build networks on a large scale if they find the growth point of 5G revenue. Therefore, the construction rhythm of 5G network will be driven by applications, and the mining of application scenarios will play an important role in 5G investment.
At present, there are many applications of 5G, such as VR/AR, car networking, telemedicine, cloud games, smart homes, smart cities, smart factories, and wide-area Internet of Things. However, some applications involve a wide range and need to solve many problems such as hardware, law and management. And it is expected to be realized after a long period of coordination.
Considering the maturity of the industry and the difficulty of cultivation, the first outbreak of the 5G era should be the relative maturity of the 4G era, but 5G can bring it superior experience and more cost-effective commercial applications. For these, 5G is not a necessary technology. Therefore, Industrial Securities judged that high-definition video communication, cloud games, distance education, live video and so on. It will be the first application to break out, and then the direction of smart home, smart medical care, intelligent transportation and smart city will gradually expand.
In China, high-definition video communication (or video cloud) is expected to directly benefit from the construction of 5G and become the first 5G application to break out. Among them, the video conference "cloud+terminal" manufacturer Yilian Network (300628) and China version of zoom video cloud manufacturer 263 (002467) are the most eye-catching.
According to the Economic Contribution of 5G Industry published by ICT Institute, it is estimated that the total economic output directly driven by 5G commerce in China will reach 10.6 trillion yuan in 2020-2025, and the IT industry chain is expected to usher in a new round of development opportunities. Post-5G applications are the largest market in the downstream of the 5G industrial chain, including smart driving, smart home, smart city, telemedicine, industrial automation and AR/VR. With the promotion of 5G commercialization, application scenario market products are expected to accelerate.
Investment opportunities look for growth targets along "Sanming and Dark"
China Merchants Securities said that it is optimistic about the investment value of 5G in the next 2-3 years, and it is suggested to lay out 5G along "three bright lines" and "one dark line".
The three open lines bring comprehensive IT cloudization for 5G infrastructure construction, 5 G downstream application explosion and 5 G.
Entering the first year of 5G construction, the construction of 5G communication network will help to pull the upstream industry of the industry into the upward cycle, and the construction of 5G infrastructure will enter a high boom cycle. In 20 19, the capital expenditure of the three major operators gradually stepped out of the investment trough in the post-4G period. From 20 19, the growth rate of capital expenditure (including 5G investment) of the three major operators began to turn from negative to positive, and the capital expenditure budget of 20 19 (including 5G capital expenditure) was about 303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The growth mainly comes from two aspects: on the one hand, from the structural point of view, the positive growth of CAPEX in 20 19 mainly comes from the growth of the wireless part, and the investment in the wireless part is expected to increase by 23 billion, up by 19.4% year-on-year, so we are optimistic about major equipment suppliers, antenna filters, optical devices and other targets.
In addition, 4G is an outbreak of consumer demand, and 5G is expected to drive information demand from consumer demand to industrial demand, bringing about the fourth industrial revolution. The downstream of 5G has a longer growth logic, which will gradually land under the drive of the Internet of Things, the Internet of Vehicles and the Industrial Internet. In the 5G era, downstream operators will penetrate more into user content, edge computing, car networking operations and enterprise users, and operators will face great opportunities under the change of generations.
At the same time, the mobile Internet has entered a mature stage, but cloud, tube and terminal are evolving at the same time. A new era of Internet of Everything and intelligence is about to open, and the industrial focus will shift from the mobile Internet to the cloud. The trend of IT cloudization is unstoppable, and cloud computing is still in the initial stage of development. In the future, the penetration rate of cloud computing in China will continue to increase. At present, there is no obvious ceiling, and there is no room for the growth of the cloud computing industry chain (IDC, servers, switches, optical modules, cloud communication, etc.). ) huge.
Hidden wire is the core component to realize comprehensive import substitution and self-control. Sino-US trade disputes are heating up again. After ZTE (000063)20 16-20 18 was sanctioned twice by the US Department of Commerce, Huawei was listed as an entity by industry research. In the future, the marginal utility of Sino-US trade disputes may be reduced, and long-term scientific and technological competition will replace trade disputes. At present, the core technology of domestic industrial chain is weak, and it is urgent to upgrade to the upstream core field. We are optimistic about the long-term upgrading and import substitution of China's information industry in the future.