100 years ago, Jinan once opened a port, which was the first time that an inland city in modern China set up its own commercial port and opened it to the outside world, which greatly promoted the rapid economic and social development and the improvement of urbanization level of Jinan at that time. Since China's reform and opening up in 1980s, Jinan's economy has developed rapidly. In 2003, the GDP reached US$ 654.38+07 billion, an increase of 654.38+03.5% over the previous year. Jinan's products have been exported to more than 654.38+040 countries and regions. By the end of 2003, the city had approved 2926 foreign-invested projects, with contractual utilization of foreign capital of 565.438 billion US dollars and actual utilization of foreign capital of 2.83 billion US dollars. * * * 5 1 foreign investors from countries and regions invest in Jinan, 18 Fortune 500 companies invest in Jinan. The six countries and regions with the largest investment are Hongkong, German, Taiwan Province, Japanese, American and Singaporean. Jinan has established economic and trade relations with more than 100 countries and regions in the world. German Siemens, Japanese Panasonic, American Pepsi-Cola, Wal-Mart, Swedish Volvo and other top 500 multinational companies have established joint ventures and cooperative enterprises in Jinan and achieved good economic benefits.
In the new century, according to the overall goal of "realizing a new leap and building a new spring city", Jinan has actively expanded its opening to the outside world, deepened its market-oriented reform, vigorously promoted economic restructuring, and constantly expanded its urban development space. In the coming period, Jinan will gradually build the eastern industrial belt, the eastern new city, the characteristic belt of Quancheng, the western new city, the western new city and the northern district according to the idea of "developing the new district, upgrading the old district, expanding the two wings and promoting as a whole". A "half-day economic circle" and a "one-day economic circle" centered on Jinan are taking shape, and new urban planning and construction have been fully launched ... a new round of urban construction, one.
Second, the socio-economic background analysis of Jinan
1) In 2004, Jinan's economic strength was further enhanced. According to preliminary accounting, the regional GDP reached 16 189 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6%. The added value of the primary industry was 1 187 billion yuan, up by 7.8%. The added value of the secondary industry was 74.24 billion yuan, an increase of19.8%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 75.78 billion yuan, up by 13.0%, and the per capita GDP was 276 10 yuan (converted to US$ 3,338.6 at the current exchange rate), up by 14. 1%.
2) Improve the quality of economic operation. In 2004, the city's social labor productivity was 45 158 yuan/person, with an increase of 14.6% (the labor productivity was calculated according to the employed population). The total tax revenue was 20.68 billion yuan, up by 18.8%, 3.2 percentage points higher than the GDP growth, accounting for 12.77% of the GDP, up by 0.02 percentage points. Fiscal revenue has increased substantially. The city's total domestic fiscal revenue was 37.78 billion yuan, an increase of 18.9%, of which the general budget revenue of local finance was 8.904 billion yuan, a comparable increase of 20.9%.
Third, new progress has been made in economic restructuring. The proportion of tertiary industry has changed from 7.6: 44.6: 47.8 at the end of last year to 7.3: 45.9: 46.8, and the proportion of secondary industry has increased by 1.3 percentage points. The added value of the non-public sector of the economy reached 60.43 billion yuan, up by 19.6%, accounting for 37.3% of the GDP, up by10.9 percentage points; The investment rate of fixed assets was 40.2%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points; Economic extroversion was 15.6%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points; The proportion of industrial high-tech industries above designated size was 28%, an increase of 2 percentage points.
4) Rapid development of modern service industry. The added value of modern service industry reached 29.95 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5%, accounting for 39.5% of the added value of the tertiary industry. Tourism is developing well. The continuous gushing of springs and major events have promoted the development of tourism. In the whole year, * * received domestic and foreign tourists 1.2 1.79 million, an increase of 27.6%, of which overseas tourists 1.07 million, an increase of 59.3%. Total tourism revenue was 946,543.8 billion yuan, up 30.7%, of which international tourism revenue was 36.98 million dollars, up 54.3%. The business service industry is in the ascendant. The business income of business service industry was 7.5 billion yuan, up by 15.0%, including 70 exhibitions, and the business income was 65 million yuan, up by 16. 1%.
5) Consumer prices rose slightly. The overall level of consumer prices rose by 2.5% over the previous year, of which food, tobacco, alcohol and articles, housing, medical care, personal articles and clothing rose by 7.4%, 4.6%, 3.7%, 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Household equipment supplies and maintenance services, transportation and communication, entertainment, education, cultural goods and services decreased by 2.7%, 2.4% and 0.3% respectively; The ex-factory price of industrial products rose by 6.7%, and the purchase price of raw materials, fuel and power rose by 16.4%.
6) The transformation of Jinan into a regional central city. At present, the proportion of modern service industry in GDP in Jinan is about 25%, which determines the status of the city. As an international regional city, Hong Kong's tertiary industry accounts for 86% of GDP, modern service industry accounts for about 50%, international cities such as Tokyo and new york account for more than 90% of GDP, and modern service industry accounts for more than 60%. The industrial structure of Jinan determines that Jinan may develop into a regional central city of China and become an important force on the economic map of China. In the evaluation of China's urban competitiveness by Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences in 2003, Jinan's urban competitiveness index ranked 12 in the whole country, and it is an important city on the economic map of China.
Third, Jinan real estate market research
I. Analysis of the real estate market in 2004
1, real estate investment In 2004, under the new situation of national macro-control policies, Jinan's real estate market operated well, real estate development investment, real estate construction area and real estate transactions continued to grow, and the whole real estate market was full of vitality, which made positive contributions to urban construction and sustainable economic and social development.
The real estate industry is developing rapidly. The annual investment in real estate development was1102 million yuan, an increase of 22.7%. Among them, the residential investment was 87 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 17.5%, accounting for 79.0% of the completed investment in real estate development. The completed area of commercial housing was 2.754 million square meters, down 6.8%, of which the completed area of residential housing was 2,463 square meters. Among them, 33,322 pieces were transferred, a year-on-year increase of 37.0%, and the growth rate was basically the same as that of the previous year; The transfer area was 4.334 million square meters, an increase of 34.6% and an increase of 7.8 percentage points over the previous year; The transfer amount was 9.383 billion yuan, an increase of 76.0% and an increase of 53.9 percentage points over the previous year.
3. Commercial housing market operation
(I) Commercial Housing The annual sales of commercial housing (including residential and non-residential housing) in Jinan 13504, up by 47.7% and 4.9 percentage points year-on-year; Sales area1873,000 square meters, up 60.6% year-on-year, up 44.3 percentage points. The sales amount was 5.094 billion yuan, up by 86. 1%, up by 60.7 percentage points. The average sales price of commercial housing in the city was 2720 yuan/square meter, up 15.9% year-on-year, up by 8 percentage points. Among them, the sales price of non-residential commercial housing (including office and commercial housing) was 4969 yuan/square meter, up 36.4% and 24.6% year-on-year.
(2) Commercial housing
1. Basic information In 2004, Jinan sold 13069 sets of commercial housing, up 47. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.5 percentage points over the previous year. Sales area1758,900 square meters, up 60.6% year-on-year, up 26.7 percentage points. Sales reached 4.527 billion yuan, up by 82.6% and 25.9 percentage points.
2. Decline in price increase In 2004, the average selling price of commercial housing in Jinan was 2574 yuan/square meter, up 13.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points. Among them, the first half of the year was 2608 yuan/square meter, up by 19.2% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point. Affected by macro-control, since June, the upward trend of commodity housing prices has been effectively curbed, and the increase has slowed down significantly. In the second half of the year, the average price was 2538 yuan/square meter, up 9.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 9.8 percentage points compared with the first half of the year and 6.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The distance between the two trend lines (cumulative average price line, the same below) in Figure 2 has gradually narrowed since June, indicating that the growth rate of commercial housing prices in Jinan has gradually decreased, and it has declined steadily.
3. The sales volume of high-priced large-sized houses increased rapidly. In 2004, the sales volume of commercial housing in Jinan was the highest at the price of 1500-2000 yuan/square meter, which was the same as last year. However, the sales volume of 1000- 1500 yuan/m2 showed a negative growth, which was mainly related to the decrease in the supply of low-priced housing market. On the contrary, the sales volume in the range of 3,000 to 5,000 yuan/square meter has doubled. Among them, the sales volume of 3500-4000 and 4000-4500 yuan/square meter increased by more than 3 to 5 times.
Comparison of the number of commercial housing sales at different prices While the sales of high-priced houses are growing rapidly, the sales of large-sized houses are also growing rapidly. In the whole year, 4,947 sets of large-sized apartments were sold, with an area of130m2, up102.5% year-on-year; The proportion of the total number of commercial housing sales has also increased from 27.5% in the previous year to 37.9%, of which the sales volume of 130- 150 square meters has the fastest growth, 2.3 times that of the same period last year.
4. The sales of high-rise residential buildings have been rising all the way. The annual sales volume of high-rise and small high-rise residential buildings in Jinan was 5,823 sets, up 96.8% year-on-year, 74.5 percentage points higher than that of multi-storey residential buildings. In particular, the sales of high-rise residential buildings increased by 3.7 times year-on-year, which is closely related to the sales growth of commercial housing at the price of RMB 3,500-4,000 and RMB 4,000-4,500 per square meter in our city. This shows that, on the one hand, with the continuous improvement of people's living standards, high-rise residential buildings are quickly recognized by middle-and high-income groups; On the other hand, it is precisely because of the rapid growth of sales of high-priced houses such as high-rise buildings and small high-rise buildings that it has become one of the important factors to raise the average price of commercial housing in our city.
2) Operation of the second-hand housing market
(I) Second-hand Houses In 2004, the sales of second-hand houses (including those with and without houses) in Jinan were 1470 1 piece, up 35.8% year-on-year, with an increase of1percentage point; Sales area1522,600 square meters, an increase of 25.6% and an increase of 7.4 percentage points; The sales amount was 33,265.438 billion yuan, up by 54.0% and 26.5 percentage points. The average selling price of second-hand houses in the city was 2 1, 8 1 yuan/square meter, up 22.7% year-on-year, up 14.9 percentage points. Among them, the sales price of second-hand non-residential (including office and business) was 3,205 yuan/square meter, up 66.3% year-on-year.
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