The three-child birth policy is coming!
The Political Bureau of the Central Committee convened a meeting on May 31 to hear a report on the major policy initiatives to actively deal with population aging during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and to consider the "Decision on Optimizing Reproductive Policy to Promote Long-Term Balanced Development of the Population".
The meeting pointed out that further optimization of the fertility policy, the implementation of a couple can have three children policy and supporting measures, is conducive to the improvement of China's demographic structure, the implementation of the national strategy to actively respond to the aging of the population, and to maintain the advantage of China's human resources endowment.
The release of the three children has been foretold. On the one hand, the country's birth population "four consecutive decline" marks the full two-child policy of the accumulation of the effect of the basic end; on the other hand, the number of first-time marriages is significantly reduced and the proportion of divorces increased significantly, China's childbearing age of the basic conditions of birth to produce a significant change.
A number of experts have said that the window of adjustment of the fertility policy has come, and the simple liberalization of the fertility policy is not enough to change the structure of the current fertility level and the downward trend, but also need to further enhance the inclusiveness of the fertility policy, to promote the fertility policy and the economic and social policies supporting the articulation of the family to reduce the burden of childbearing, child rearing, education, and to release the potential of the fertility policy.
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Let go of the three tires, before more than institutions and experts called for.
CITIC Securities in a recent research report, the short term, if the liberalization of the three child births can make the new births of the population to enhance about 10%. Under neutral assumptions and further consideration of the stacking effect, it is expected that the lifting effect could go up to about 14%. Assuming all else to be equal, the effect is expected to be sufficient to maintain the total fertility rate in the range of 1.5-1.8. In the medium to long term, the support of fertility incentives is still needed to maintain fertility in the moderate range.
Liang Jianzhang, co-founder of Ctrip Group, in an interview with Financial State Week, believes that the most pressing demographic issue is the continued slowdown in population growth. The seventh census data show that the "separate two children" "comprehensive two children" and other policy measures to let the long-term suppressed two-child fertility will be released, the birth of the population in 2016 is significantly more than in 2015, promoting the birth of the population rebound, "two children" is the most important thing. The "two-child" fertility rate has risen significantly, with the proportion of "two-child" births rising from about 30% in 2013 to about 50% in 2017. However, it should also be seen that from 2017 to 2020, China's birth population declined for four consecutive years. And due to a combination of factors, the number of women of childbearing age, especially those in the prime of childbearing, has continued to decline.
According to this trend prediction, in the next 10 years, the number of women in the peak childbearing age group of 22 to 36 years old will decrease by more than 30%. So the probability is that the number of births in the country will continue to fall in 2020 and in the coming years.
However, because the population born in the past during the high fertility era is still alive, the shrinkage of the total population has a considerable lag relative to the shrinkage of the birth population. Although China's fertility rate fell below replacement level in the 1990s, the country's total population is still growing slowly and will only start to turn the corner in the next few years.
From the 14.65 million births in 2019, it can be extrapolated that China's fertility rate in that year is 1.46, but at least half of the two children born in 2019 come from the birth pile-up effect of the comprehensive two-child policy, and if the temporary birth pile-up is removed, China's natural fertility rate in 2019 is only about 1.1. This fertility rate is lower than that of Europe and the United States, and lower than that of Japan, and is among the lowest in the world, along with Asian countries such as South Korea and Singapore, as well as China's Taiwan and Hong Kong regions. By the time the population born in the ultra-low fertility era reaches old age, with life expectancy basically stabilized, the generation will be halved.
Overall, a prolonged period of low fertility will lead to an increasing degree of population ageing and an increasing burden of pension costs and taxes on society. This is a drag on national finances and economic vitality.
Young people are innovative and more receptive to new ideas, and are able to create new business models and technologies in science, technology, and culture. In an aging society, as economic growth declines, all sectors shrink and opportunities diminish.
For example, if the entire demand in China is now declining, hotels are in surplus, no one will build new hotels, then the new hotel technology will not have a test bed, it will make the economy solidified; another factor, the deepening of the degree of aging, the delayed retirement will allow more and more elderly people to stay in the labor market, the resources more and more inclined to the elderly, then society may become more conservative, innovation and entrepreneurship may also be affected. Innovation and entrepreneurship may also be affected.
In addition, with a smaller population, the advantages of the scale effect, which is now one of China's greatest strengths, are not fully realized. In a modern economy, the larger the population, the easier it is to develop industries and services, the more efficient the production, and the higher the per capita output will be. The greater the population density, the lower the cost of promoting products and services, and the greater the population the fiercer the competition will be, which in turn will promote technological progress.
Liang believes that the current situation, the policy still needs to turn as soon as possible, to create a variety of conditions for families with children, to create a birth-friendly policy environment and social environment, such as the road to facilitate baby carriages, public **** occasions washroom to facilitate with children or nursing mothers, so that you feel very convenient to go out with a child, these are all very detailed issues. In addition, the finance should be strongly inclined to create a variety of conditions for families with three or four children, including direct cash incentives.
China is the most resourceful country in the world to encourage childbirth. China's investment and savings rate is the highest in the world, once up to 50%, and now more than 40%, which is dozens of percentage points higher than many countries, so at least 2% to 5% of GDP can be invested in encouraging childbirth.
Encouraging childbirth is investing in people, and most of our current investments are in building houses, infrastructure, and a variety of parks, which are actually almost saturated, and now we need to take out a small portion of the investment to invest in future generations. China is actually one of the most efficient countries in terms of investment, with room to invest.
Encouraging childbearing doesn't force anyone to have children, it gives all families the right to have children on their own, and it's up to that family to decide how many children they want to have, and when they want to have them. Some people have the right not to marry and not to have children, and others have the right to marry and have children, including the right to have many children. And it is only by accommodating both families with no children and one child, and families with three and four children, that the average number of births per family can be allowed to exceed two children, and that the population can be realized to reach replacement level, i.e., that there is no reduction in the total population.
This is actually a common phenomenon in developed countries. The United States, Europe also has a considerable number of people do not get married, do not have children, there is also a significant portion of the population is born three and more, China is still enjoying the demographic dividend, the financial resources are still there, but need to make a great determination.
Half Moon Talk article "pilot liberalization of fertility, to first resolve the" fertility anxiety "mentioned that the population problem is related to the future of the country, involving hundreds of millions of families, affecting the public's nerves. The national "14th Five-Year Plan" points out that it is necessary to formulate a long-term population development strategy, optimize the fertility policy, and enhance the inclusiveness of the fertility policy. This points to the direction of solving the problem of population and fertility.
Currently, China's population aging process continues to accelerate, the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will step into the "moderate aging" society, by 2025, the elderly population aged 60 years and above will exceed 300 million. The "baby-boom" generation at the beginning of the founding of New China will enter the retirement stage, and the reduction of labor supply will be further expanded.
On the one hand, we are accelerating into an aging society, and on the other hand, we are entering a critical stage of national rejuvenation. High-quality development can not be separated from high-quality population resources, to solve the real contradiction, we need to actively explore and experiment, but also need to comprehensive and inclusive reproductive policy guidance and support.
Since the 13th Five-Year Plan liberalized the "comprehensive two-child" policy, there has been a short-lived peak in fertility, but the number of new populations has shown a trend of "first high, then low", and the natural population growth rate has dropped to 3.5 percent by 2019. The natural population growth rate has fallen to 3.34 per thousand, lower than in 2015 before the launch of the "comprehensive two-child" policy.
"Liberalization" is still "unwilling to give birth", indicating that the policy restrictions are only one of the "fertility blockage", worrying about "affordable,
The first thing to do is to make sure that you have a good understanding of what is going on in your life and what is going on in yours.
First of all, we need to reduce the cost of childbirth, parenting and education. From maternity, birth to milk powder, sister-in-law, these are not small expenses. 3-year-old children's care, but also many young parents headache of the reality of the problem. In some areas, the contradiction in education resources has been revealed even in the kindergarten, primary and secondary school performance is more prominent, the price of the school district room has become a heavy burden for many families.
Secondly, it is necessary to establish a workplace environment that is more favorable to childbirth. In many places, childbirth has become a "minus" for women in the workplace, an obstacle to their employment, development and promotion. And the husband, despite the provisions of paternity leave but "difficult to land", often become "paper benefits".
Therefore, the focus of the current optimization of maternity policy is not only to experiment with the liberalization of policy restrictions, but also to make up for the shortcomings, weaknesses and quality of public **** services. The company is also promoting the construction of a supporting "package" of public **** service system to reduce the cost of raising children in the family, the formation of a childcare-friendly social environment, and to improve the willingness of families to give birth to children and the ability to raise children.
Only by effectively focusing on the expectations of the masses, practicing the people-centered development ideology, eliminating the constraints on fertility one by one, and resolving the anxiety of the masses, can we fundamentally solve the challenges posed by the population problem.
Su Jian, director of the National Economy Research Center of Peking University, believes in an interview with Oriental Outlook Weekly that: to cope with the decline in the birth rate, it is necessary to take strong incentives to improve the benefits of having children, reduce the cost of having children, and to establish a birth-friendly society, where the population is regarded as a resource, not a burden.
To this end, Su Jian put forward several policy recommendations:
Extend maternity, paternity and breastfeeding leave. Female workers should enjoy full paid maternity leave. It is recommended that the difference between the first and second child leave be completely abolished, and the policy of maternity leave of not less than 180 days, paternity leave of not less than 30 days, and breastfeeding leave of not less than six months be implemented. At the same time, should develop unit childcare Childcare hosting, breastfeeding room facilities and other infrastructure construction, for female workers after maternity leave to work at ease to provide assistance, the formation of an atmosphere to support the birth of the environment.
Implement subsidy programs for childbirth and parenting to reduce the cost of childbearing. Free childbirth is practiced, or the state provides full maternity insurance. You can subsidize a certain amount of monthly living expenses for each child and increase medical benefits.
Greatly develop the childcare service industry. It is recommended that the regulation of this industry be fully liberalized, and private capital be encouraged to enter this industry freely, with tax incentives, medical service support and other support.
Liberalize the policy for parents to settle in their children's homes. Parents with many children can choose any of their children to settle down and transfer the relevant social insurance, medical insurance, etc., to remove the obstacles to help children take care of their children's elderly pension system in a different place.
Gradually, childcare and early childhood education will be included in the scope of compulsory education, financed by financial allocations to improve kindergarten infrastructure and teacher deployment, and ultimately realize the implementation of free education from kindergarten to high school. At the same time, private schools are liberalized so that children with special needs can attend private schools. Provide after-school services in schools with children, can also be encouraged by private enterprises or individuals to provide such market-oriented services.
Crack down on the crimes of child abduction, trafficking and victimization. Nowadays, children need to be transported by their parents to school even within the same neighborhood, which substantially increases the cost of parenting. For families without elderly people to bring up their children, this is an almost insurmountable difficulty, hence the need to increase the intensity of the fight against crimes against children.
Tax cuts for families with many children. Appropriate deductions for family personal income tax according to the birth of children to reduce the burden of raising children. China's current personal income tax is levied on an individual basis, but in the future it can be levied on a family basis, with a family starting point set according to the number of children raised, or the number of children raised can be taken into account in other ways in the personal income tax.
Eliminate restrictions and discrimination against children born out of wedlock. With economic development and technological progress, more and more people are choosing to live out of wedlock, which is a worldwide trend. Under the current social values, we can consider removing the restrictions on children born out of wedlock on a pilot basis, for example, by allowing parents to voluntarily choose to register only one of their parents in the household registration.
Reduce opportunity costs. Policies and regulations must be adopted to compel enterprises not to violate women's reproductive rights, to ensure women's occupational safety and occupational rights and interests, and to reduce their opportunity cost of childbearing. In the process of childbearing, women pay more, which cannot be measured in monetary terms, and it is necessary to give women economic security and contribution honor, otherwise women, especially highly educated women, will not be willing to have more children. The quality of the mother determines the quality of the child, so it is more important to give women visible material and spiritual support.
Improve the adoption system and build a good children's welfare center. The children who have lost the care of their families will be given proper placement and education.