What are the industry changes that have the greatest impact on the company's profits

In China's pharmaceutical industry output value, the domestic demand part of the contribution of nearly 90%, so the growth of domestic demand is the main driving force of industry growth, in the strengthening of social security, the start of the new health care reform background, the government's input to the promotion of domestic demand is crucial. Domestic demand does not only refer to medical demand, but also includes public **** health and other aspects of demand, all types of domestic demand to release the key to the government's continued investment, that the government's investment in the construction of public **** health, health care system, primary health care institutions, will inevitably lead to an increase in demand, is the pharmaceutical industry in 2010 to continue to maintain the fastest growth of the most important driving force.?　　1, at least until 2012 (perhaps extending to 2020) government investment will continue to increase?　　Preliminary breakdown of the government's proposed 850 billion input program. Think at least before 2012 the government will increase investment according to the commitment, and the future will continue to increase, or can be extended to 2020.　?　The analysis shows that the government has invested the most in health care insurance, and it is expected that the proportion of personal payment in the future will rapidly decline to about 40% in 2010, and the total cost of health care as a share of GDP will increase from 4.52% in 2007 to more than 5% in 2010. ?　2, the pulling force of the construction of the health insurance system has not disappeared, will continue to promote the expansion of the domestic drug market?　　In 2010, in the population biology factors (population size, structure and disease spectrum) and technological progress of the two factors are relatively stable, driven by the construction of the health insurance system to enhance the ability to pay is still the most critical factor in the expansion of the drug market.　　(1) The amount of health insurance financing will continue to increase, constituting the most solid foundation for the improvement of payment capacity?　　Unlike some of the views that the pull effect of health insurance has ended, that universal health insurance in 2010 to initially complete the full coverage of the network, while the level of medical insurance is still ongoing, 2010, 2012 is an important point in time, the construction of the health insurance system is still the most important driving force to pull the expansion and growth of the industry.?　　As the coverage rate of the New Rural Cooperative has reached more than 90%, the focus of the improvement of the medical insurance system in 2010 is: (1) expanding the coverage of urban residents' health insurance and urban workers' health insurance, the latter's difficulty lies in the rural migrant workers and employees of bankruptcy and closure of the enterprise's medical insurance, but at present, the problem of the health insurance of the employees of bankruptcy and closure of the enterprise is being gradually resolved; (2) gradually improve the level of protection, the financing of the New Rural Cooperative in 2010 The standard was raised to 150 yuan per person per year, of which 120 yuan was paid by the state and local finances.　　predicted the coverage of the three major health insurance systems, the number of insured people, and the financing standard, and then projected the change of the total annual financing and the amount of new premiums, which is considered the most powerful guarantee for the continuous release of domestic healthcare demand before 2010. The ability to pay to promote the willingness to visit the clinic and the growth of medical expenses?　　Universal health insurance is undoubtedly the most basic and important part of the new health care reform, perhaps in the distant future, commercial insurance will take the place of health insurance, but at present, universal health insurance is undoubtedly the most feasible, most direct and most reliable way for all people to obtain health care protection, and its impact on residents' health care behaviors is decisive, and its significance does not only lie in the increase in expenses brought about by the amount of protection itself, but also the increase in willingness to pay and the ensuing increase in the demand for health care. The significance lies not only in the increase in costs brought about by the amount of coverage itself, but more importantly in the enhancement of willingness and the consequent release of latent demand.?　　Considering from the perspective of expenditures, the total amount of health insurance financing will eventually be transformed into medical expenses. Under the premise that the reimbursement rate remains unchanged, the scope of reimbursement remains unchanged, and the level of protection does not increase, the total amount of expected health insurance payments and the reimbursement rate are used to calculate the portion of eligible medical expenses spent by this group of patients and its incremental amount. Measurements show that the incremental medical costs incurred by the group of people reimbursed by health insurance in 2009 and 2010 were about 67 billion yuan and 140 billion yuan, respectively. (3) in 2010, the growth of medical costs will eventually be transformed into a drug market expansion momentum?　　In today's domestic pharmaceutical industry's operating mechanism, the rapid growth of medical costs essentially means rapid growth in drug spending, which means rapid expansion of the drug market. Taking general hospitals as an example, in 2008, the proportion of its inpatient and outpatient drug expenditures were 43.90% and 50.50% respectively, which was higher than that of 2007 instead of decreasing. It is believed that the existence of this situation will not last, after changing the inappropriate situation of individuals paying too high a proportion, the next step of health care reform will certainly strive to change the industry's operating mechanism of "supporting doctors with medicines" and gradually adjust the relationship of interests between payers, medical institutions, the pharmaceutical industry and the pharmaceutical industry and the pharmaceutical industry.　　Before the operation model of public hospitals and the compensation of medical institutions are solved, it is very difficult to reduce the price of medicines on a large scale, and the effect is still poor, and the situation that medicines are the largest part of medical expenses will not change. In the short term, due to the hospital in the next three years will choose a number of cities for public hospital reform pilot gradually abolish the drug markup, coupled with the final implementation of the basic drug system, general hospitals will have the proportion of the use of basic drugs requirements, which led to a decline in the proportion of drug spending, judging the proportion of drug spending will decline, but the reduction in 2010 may not be very large, it is expected to cancel the markup and The basic drug system (extended version and local supplementary varieties) after the implementation of the proportion of drug expenditure will be a relatively large decline, and the final completion of the time should be in 2012 after the?　　3、Reconstruction of primary healthcare system is the biggest driving force for the growth of medical device market?　　Primary health care system reconstruction is a focus of this round of health care reform. China's "reform of the medical and health system in the near future focus on the implementation of the program" clearly put forward, the next three years China will focus on supporting the construction of about 2,000 county hospitals as well as 29,000 township health centers, and at the same time expand 5,000 central township health centers. And in the new health care reform in the investment of 850 billion of 16.5 billion all targeted to the country's 29,000 township health centers and urban community health service institutions, all as its medical equipment equipment purchase subsidies, in 2009, China will invest another 37 billion yuan for 70% of the country's county hospitals for the renovation and expansion of, which also includes the renewal and upgrading of the primary institutions of the medical equipment products, estimated to account for about 1 / 3 of the investment, that is, 10-12 billion yuan, which is about 1 / 3 of the investment. It is estimated that it accounts for about 1/3 of the investment, i.e. 10-12 billion yuan, and it is expected that this trend may still continue in 2010.　　In the primary health care system reconstruction of the pull, the medical device market, especially low-end medical equipment market will usher in the development of a good opportunity, is expected in 2010, 2011 revenue growth is expected to return to about 25%. ?4, increase public **** health investment to pull the vaccine industry growth?　　2009-2011 government investment to the public **** health funds are expected to be 75 billion yuan, and the implementation of the new health care reform program to further clarify the program immunization by the central government, 2009 per capita basic public **** health investment of not less than 15 yuan, 2011 not less than 20 yuan, and to achieve urban and rural per capita basic public **** health parity.?　　Judging that the purchase of vaccines will be one of the important elements in the basic public **** health input, and expects that the annual cost routinely used to purchase vaccines (excluding the A-flux vaccine) reaches 2.5 billion yuan, and will gradually increase, with the increased cost being used for the new vaccine and the expansion of the scope of vaccination. As a result of the influenza A epidemic, the domestic vaccine industry has seen explosive growth, and its impact is expected to last 2-3 years, by which the vaccine industry will still maintain high growth in 2010, but the growth of different categories and varieties varies greatly. In addition, unless the A flu epidemic continues, product exports, included in the plan of immunization or in the domestic manufacturers in the field of cancer, AIDS and other vaccines to make a breakthrough, the domestic vaccine industry in the short and medium term outbreaks may be presented after the high and low running trend.? (B) foreign demand has recovered, APIs are expected to get out of the trough?　　APIs are divided into bulk APIs and specialty APIs. 2009 China's main bulk API products out of the bottom of the trend of recovery, exports are also rising month by month, vitamin C and vitamin E and other products to benefit from the advantages of high industrial concentration, the price remained at a relatively high level, the enterprise's profitability is still high. And other vitamin products and antibiotics due to the overall supply exceeds demand as well as the industry pattern of fragmentation, prices remain at the bottom of the history of the enterprise's operating efficiency declined sharply; characteristics of the overall impact of the overall impact of the decline in overseas sales of APIs is even greater, the price and sales fell by a larger margin, the enterprise's profitability to be restored.　　As 2/3 of China's API exports, so changes in demand in overseas markets on China's API products have a great impact. 2009 January-August, the revenue of 123.2 billion yuan of APIs, year-on-year growth of only 8.51%, the slowest growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry in the sub-industry, but in 2009, January-November, the revenue of the APIs to reach 177.676 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.05%, the speed of recovery significantly accelerated. Recovery speed significantly accelerated.?　　The recovery trend of APIs is expected to continue in 2010. With the gradual stabilization and recovery of the global economy, the downstream demand for APIs has increased, which will drive the APIs out of the trough. Chemical API sub-sector is expected to 2010, 2011 sales revenue growth is expected to reach about 20%, profit growth is expected to reach about 25%.