The five Central Asian countries have a total population of 55 million people and an area of 4 million square kilometers. Kazakhstan has a land area of 2.72 million square kilometers, a population of nearly 16 million, a strong foundation of heavy industry, oil and gas minerals and other natural resources, is the strongest economic strength of Central Asia, has established a market economy system, gathered a large number of Central Asia, Russia and Europe merchants. Almaty (the former capital of Kazakhstan), with a population of 1.14 million, is the largest city in Central Asia and an economic, trade and financial center.
--Kazakhstan's demand and import of machinery products, vehicles, agricultural machinery, petroleum equipment, chemical products, building materials, etc. is strong. Since 1999, Kazakhstan's GDP has maintained a high annual growth rate of about 10%, and in recent years, it has vigorously developed the manufacturing industry, agriculture, food processing industry, metal industry, transportation, construction and urban infrastructure. In 2004, machinery and transportation equipment became the second largest category of goods exported to Kazakhstan, an increase of 36% over the previous year.
--Kazakhstan's demand for and import of home appliances, furniture home, office supplies, home textiles and clothing, consumer goods, etc. is strong. 2005 Kazakhstan's per capita GDP of more than 3,600 U.S. dollars, has entered the middle-income countries. In the past 10 years, Kazakhstan's per capita monetary income increased 4 times, per capita savings of residents increased 36 times, consumer power continues to strengthen. 80% of daily consumer goods such as textiles and home appliances are imported, and in 2004, daily consumer goods were the first category of goods exported to Kazakhstan.
--Kazakhstan's imports are growing at a high speed, and China-Kazakhstan trade has great potential. 2004 Kazakhstan's foreign trade amounted to 32.9 billion U.S. dollars (a year-on-year increase of 54%, excluding disorderly trade, Kazakhstan's side of the statistics), of which imports amounted to 12.8 billion U.S. dollars (Russia accounted for 38%, Germany accounted for 8%, and China accounted for 6%), an increase of 52%. The advantages and competitiveness of Chinese commodities in Kazakhstan have shown great potential for growth. 2004 China-Harbin trade amounted to 4.5 billion U.S. dollars (an increase of 37% year-on-year, according to Chinese statistics), of which 2.2 billion U.S. dollars were exported (an increase of 41%). 2005 China-Harbin trade amounted to 6.8 billion U.S. dollars, with 3.9 billion U.S. dollars of exported goods (an increase of 77%). The opening of the China-Harbin oil pipeline at the end of 2005, China will import 20 million tons of oil from Harbin every year, which will surely lead to more exports of Chinese goods to Harbin.
In recent years, Russia's overall socio-economic development has been good, the people's living standards continue to improve, and the real income of the population has increased. 2003 Russia's GDP grew by 7.3 percent, which is the fifth consecutive year of steady growth in the Russian economy. The Ministry of Economy and Trade of Russia, on the basis of summarizing the results of socio-economic development in 2003 and a comprehensive analysis of domestic and international factors, has made corresponding forecasts of Russia's socio-economic development for the period 2004-2007.
Since May 2000, when Vladimir Putin was formally sworn in as President of the Russian Federation, Russia has undergone profound socio-economic changes over the past four years. Putin was re-elected in March this year and delivered his annual state of the nation address in May. Putin believes that in the past four years Russia has gone through an important pioneering stage in socio-economic terms, and for the first time really achieved economic stability. Putin noted that the top economic tasks facing Russia now are to double its gross domestic product by 2010, reduce poverty and raise the level of welfare of the population.
The Russian Ministry of Economy and Trade, summarizing the results of socio-economic development in 2003, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the fluctuation of energy prices on the international market, the development of the world economy, the financial situation of Russia's major trading partners and the balance of trade in Russia and other external factors, made a corresponding forecast of Russia's economic development in the years 2004-2007.
I. GDP
Over the past four years, Russia's overall socio-economic development has been good, the standard of living of the people has been improving, and the real income of the population has increased. 2003 GDP grew by 7.3%, which is the fifth consecutive year of steady growth of the Russian economy, and the growth rate of the economy in the first four months of 2004 has reached 8%.
According to experts of the Ministry of Economy and Trade, taking into account external factors such as the continuing relatively high price of oil on the international market, GDP is expected to continue to grow at an upward rate in 2004, and external factors are expected to boost economic growth by about 2 percentage points; taking into account the level of the real income of the Russian population and internal factors such as investment in fixed assets, the rate of growth of the GDP in 2004 is expected to increase by about 4.4 percentage points. As a result, GDP growth in 2004 will increase by about 4.4 percentage points. To sum up, in 2004 the growth rate of the Russian economy will be 6.9%, the total GDP will be 15.3 trillion rubles, the inflation rate will be 8-10%, the population's income will grow by 8.1%, the exports will increase by 7 billion rubles and total 125 billion dollars, and imports will increase by 4.3 billion dollars and total 78.4 billion dollars.
According to experts' forecasts, the share of Russia's wage bill in GDP will rise to 30.5 percent in 2007 from 24.5 percent in 2003. the real income of the population will increase by 36-42 percent in 2007 compared to 2003.
Two, foreign debt
In 2003, Russia's balance of payments was good, and foreign debt repayment was relatively smooth. The Russian Ministry of Economy and Trade said that the progress of Russia's debt repayment in 2004 will not be affected by the restructuring of its economic sectors, and that the Russian government's "debt repayment policy for 2004-2007" is to strictly adhere to the schedule for repaying the external debt and gradually reduce the balance of the external debt, which will help to increase the international community's trust in Russia and Russia's confidence in the country's economy. This will help to increase the international community's confidence in Russia and the attractiveness of Russian investments.
Russia's total debt was equal to the entire GDP in 1999, while the share of Russia's national debt in the GDP is currently much lower than the 60% ceiling set by the European Union for its member states, at less than 33%, and it is expected that by the end of this year it will be reduced to 29.9%, of which the foreign debt accounts for about 23.5% and the domestic debt for about 6.4%. At present, Russia's overall macroeconomic situation is stable, and if more favorable conditions for debt repayment can be obtained, Russia will consider early repayment of debt.
According to the data provided by the Russian Ministry of Finance, in 2003 Russia*** repaid $17.3 billion in foreign debt, of which $10.9 billion in principal and $6.4 billion in interest. 2004 is expected to repay $16.3 billion in principal and interest on the debt, in 2005 - $18.9 billion, and in 2007 - $14.9 billion. .
III. Inflation
In 2003, Russia's inflation rate was 12%. According to the Ministry of Economy and Trade, Russia's inflation rate is forecast to decrease from 8-10 percent in 2004 to 4-6 percent in 2007, and is expected to fall to 2-4 percent in 2010. Russian Finance Minister Kudrin said the Russian government is capable of reducing the inflation rate to 3 percent in 2008.
IV. Attracting investment
In 2003, Russia attracted foreign direct investment totaling $6.8 billion, up 69.4 percent from the same period a year earlier. According to optimistic budgets of experts, Russia will attract $20 billion of foreign direct investment in 2010, and according to conservative forecasts it will be $11.3 billion.
The influx of foreign capital depends on the socio-economic and political stability of the beneficiary countries. Since October 8, 2003, when the international credit rating agency Moody's raised Russia's credit rating by two levels, from Ba2, which indicates a credit rating suitable for speculation, to Baa3, which indicates a credit rating suitable for investment, the international community has fully affirmed and recognized Russia's stable economic and financial development, and the country's attractiveness to foreign investment has further strengthened.
V. The federal budget
The federal budget for 2004 had total revenues of 2.742 trillion rubles and total expenditures of 2.659 trillion rubles, leaving a surplus of 83.4 billion rubles. Unlike the budgets of previous years, the 2004 budget includes a stabilization fund to cope with fluctuations in world oil prices. Russian Finance Minister Kudrin said that compared with the past, the 2004 budget increased allocations for health care, culture, education, public **** services, and the fields of defense, security, the activities of the judiciary and space.