First, the positive fiscal policy is in terms of the comparative significance of the size of the policy role. Since the reform and opening up, due to a variety of reasons, China's fiscal revenue accounted for the proportion of GDP, as well as the central fiscal revenue accounted for the proportion of all fiscal revenue has been declining, the emergence of the macro-control capacity of the state finance tends to weaken, the "meal financial" unsustainable dilemma. In the face of China's economic success in achieving a "soft landing" after the emergence of insufficient demand, investment and economic growth and new problems, especially in the face of the impact of the Asian financial crisis and the impact of the financial policy must be made to make China's fiscal policy as soon as possible from the regulatory function of the weakening of the predicament out of the economic growth to play a more direct, more positive role in promoting and pulling. And pulling role. This is the main meaning of "more active" or active fiscal policy.
Secondly, the positive fiscal policy is the urgent need for structural adjustment and social stability in China. With the deepening of reform and opening up, the degree of marketization continues to increase, the structural contradictions in China's social and economic life has become increasingly prominent, into the new situation of expanding domestic demand, open up the market, and promote sustained, rapid and healthy economic development of the serious obstacles. Fiscal policy, as the most important means of structural adjustment, should obviously play a more active role than before in China's structural optimization and structural adjustment. In addition, due to the widening of the social income distribution gap, the reform of state-owned enterprises in the number of laid-off, unemployed people increased, urban poverty problem is becoming more and more obvious, as the only means of social redistribution of fiscal policy, must also be in the promotion of social fairness, to ensure the stability of the community to play the most critical regulatory function. This is the market mechanism and other policy instruments can not be replaced. Changes in the situation, the urgent objective needs, so that China's fiscal policy can not help but come to the forefront, give full play to its due positive role.
Third, active fiscal policy is not a type of policy, but a choice of policy measures. Chinese and foreign economic theory shows that the modern market economy under the conditions of fiscal policy, can be roughly divided into expansionary fiscal policy, tight fiscal policy and neutral fiscal policy three types. Such as the United States in the 30s of this century, "Roosevelt's New Deal", and its supporting, at least 10 years of expansionary fiscal policy; Japan since the 60s since the pursuit of expansionary fiscal policy, etc., have this policy characteristics and policy orientation. And China's current implementation of active fiscal policy, only in the moderately tight fiscal policy under the general direction, according to changes in the new situation, new problems and unexpected external factors and take a response to a fiscal policy initiatives, is not a type of policy.
[edit]The nature and characteristics of active fiscal policy
(a) the stage of the policy. Positive fiscal policy, is in the current China has a lack of demand, investment, exports and economic growth is weak, the impact of the Asian financial crisis has intensified and other special circumstances, within the limits allowed by the policy environment, the policy adopted a phased or temporary moderate expansion policy. It can also be said that this is in the domestic economy has an urgent need, policy implementation and the realistic possibility of conditions, made a conditional policy choice. Here the so-called objective need, is to expand domestic demand in order to maintain moderate economic growth needs, is in the monetary policy due to the implementation, the operation of the access to local obstacles, its ability to stimulate demand and the effect of the conditions of the limitations of a policy choice must be made. The so-called policy environment allows, that is to say, despite the national fiscal balance of payment situation is more severe, but in the bank has more "deposit gap", there are rich funds, enterprises due to the strengthening of the constraint mechanism and other reasons and loan prudence, etc., the financial can be through the implementation of a moderate expansion of the national debt policy as the focus of the active fiscal policy, to achieve the expansion of demand, stimulate the economy. Once this policy environment changes, the choice of fiscal policy needs to be considered separately.
(ii) Directionality of the policy. From the reality of our country, in the transformation of government functions is not yet fully in place, the enterprise mechanism is not yet complete, institutional and structural contradictions are still very prominent, it is not appropriate to implement a comprehensive expansion of fiscal policy, and can only be implemented both to increase investment, open up the market, expanding domestic demand, but also conducive to adjusting and optimizing the structure, and to promote deepening of institutional reform of the fiscal policy, that is, the implementation of the directionality of fiscal policy. That is to say, a targeted fiscal policy should be implemented. It is in view of this, China's active fiscal policy has chosen to adjust the structure, improve the investment environment, enhance the strength of economic growth and industry-driven effect for the purpose of social infrastructure construction as the focus of the direction.
(C) the composite nature of the policy. Expanding domestic demand is multi-faceted, multi-level, so the use of active fiscal policy, for its part, is not limited to expanding financial investment in infrastructure, but to expand demand as the main theme, focusing on a number of policy instruments for the integrated use of the policy complexity. Briefly, in addition to issuing an additional 100 billion yuan of treasury bonds to state-owned commercial banks for infrastructure construction, 270 billion yuan of special treasury bonds were issued at the same time to raise the capital adequacy ratio of state-owned commercial banks; by adjusting the expenditure structure of the central government, 18 billion yuan was freed up to be used exclusively for the basic subsistence protection of laid-off workers in state-owned enterprises, the full and timely payment of pensions to retired persons, and flood relief, etc., i.e., by means of fiscal transfers, the government has been able to provide the necessary financial resources to support the basic livelihood of laid-off workers. In order to stimulate consumption and investment, the central government has increased the export tax rebate rate for some products, adjusted the tax policy for imported equipment, lowered the tariff rate, and exempted foreign and domestic investment projects from tariffs and import taxes within the prescribed limits, so as to promote and enhance the demand for foreign trade and economic cooperation.
[Edit Paragraph]Policy Orientation of Positive Fiscal Policy
The reasonable determination and timely adjustment of the principle or policy orientation of fiscal policy have a decisive influence on the realization of policy objectives and the merits of policy effects. In this regard, our country has been and is practicing active fiscal policy and appropriate monetary policy, should pay attention to and strive to do the following several "balance" or several "combination":
First, in the choice of policy priorities, to increase the scale of investment and stimulate, expand final consumption demand. First, in the choice of policy priorities, to increase the scale of investment combined with stimulation and expansion of final consumer demand. In the traditional planned economy - seller's market - shortage economy conditions, we have been accustomed to the economic stimulus focus on investment and production, that is to say, on increasing the supply of products, because the constraints of supply is always the main aspect of the contradiction. However, in a market economy - a buyer's market - the focus of stimulation is on consumer demand, and effective demand is the main constraint on national economic development. Stimulating investment and production is of course also raising demand, but it is only intermediate demand, and the extent to which it can play a role in economic growth and whether it can improve economic efficiency depends on the state of final demand. Under the new situation to help expand domestic demand, fiscal and monetary policy orientation, must increase investment and production and stimulate final consumption organic combination.
Secondly, in the grasp of the policy strength, so that the total amount of moderate expansion and structural adjustment, optimization. Because the nature of the current problem, neither a simple overproduction economic crisis and economic depression, nor a simple lack of aggregate demand, but in the economic system, economic development (growth) mode of transition period, in the economy has succeeded in achieving a soft landing, high growth, low inflation situation, mainly due to the transition of "analgesia", institutional and structural obstacles and other basic reasons. Transitional difficulties that have developed for such fundamental reasons as institutional and structural obstacles. It is precisely because of this characteristic and nature, that is, in the institutional transition has not yet been completed, structural contradictions are very prominent, adapted to the market economy of the macro-control system is still very unsound, etc., if one-sided emphasis and implementation of the total expansion of the total amount of the policy of comprehensive loosening, then it is likely to induce a new round of inflation, aggravate the structural adjustment of the difficulties, which is not only does not contribute to the current coordinated and effective growth of the economy, and also will be for the subsequent The sustained and healthy development of the economy, the optimization of industrial structure, as well as the solution of the employment problem based on this, causing more trouble and delayed obstacles.
Thirdly, in the mastery of policy tendency, it should combine the support of state-owned economy with the encouragement of the development of non-state-owned economy. Because whether from the point of view of its development needs, development possibilities and its existence of great potential, or from the point of view of its great role in such aspects as promoting economic growth, increasing national tax revenues, solving the employment problem and so on, the development of the non-state economy has an important impact and significance on the expansion of domestic demand, and to achieve the goal of economic growth. However, from a practical point of view, the development of non-state economy does exist a number of practical obstacles and difficulties, financial, tax, credit and other aspects, there are some urgent need to study and solve the policy problems.
Fourth, in the consideration of the policy effect, so that the expansion of domestic demand in the current policy effect and long-term policy effect. Because, since the lack of demand will be a constraint on China's subsequent economic development is an important factor, and thus the solution to the problem can not only focus on the immediate, without taking into account the long term, in the policy orientation, the policy effect of the analysis and estimation, it is necessary to take the short-term and long-term, the current and the future to be considered in an integrated manner.
[Edit paragraph] Positive fiscal policy timely adjustment
Since the positive fiscal policy is not a long-term policy choice, there is bound to be a policy adjustment or policy conversion problem, which we must be prepared for. The key to the problem lies in, can appear or find a replacement for the current fiscal policy "pull" or "thrust" factors and conditions. That is to say, to gradually change to the implementation of positive fiscal policy as the focus to pull the economic growth of the situation, with other thrust to replace or replace, so as to create conditions for positive fiscal policy "fade out" and transformation. I thought that, in the medium and long term, such factors or pull are as follows:
1, the market and consumption alternative. That is, the current fiscal and monetary policy focus should be placed in favor of further development of the market and stimulate final consumer demand, and gradually reduce economic growth on expanding the scale of government investment dependence. In this regard, there are many alternative measures, such as the orderly promotion of banks' consumer credit; appropriate increase in the proportion of financial expenditure on stimulating consumer demand, in particular, increase the number of financial transfers to low-income earners; effectively reduce the burden on farmers, increase rural and farmers' incomes, and lay the groundwork for the development of a huge rural market, and so on.
2, private and business investment alternative. Social capital is forever flowing and transforming each other. In order to achieve the intended economic growth targets, in addition to certain social public **** products, public **** services, mainly relying on the state financial inputs, private and corporate investment increases, the government can be based on the purpose of stimulating economic growth and inputs to create the conditions for the timely withdrawal of the purpose of pulling the economic growth. In this regard, there is great potential in our country. For example, as soon as possible to reduce the heavy non-tax burden on enterprises, to change the existence of some enterprises in the situation of the fee is greater than the tax enterprise investment potential, is a very considerable figure. At the same time, as long as the guidance is appropriate, the right policy, activate our huge savings deposits balance and the utilization of the mechanism of swimming capital, there is also a lot to do. Another example, the full use of financial subsidies, financial participation, financial guarantees and other economic means to fully mobilize and absorb social capital to participate in social infrastructure, high-tech industries and real estate development and other aspects of the input, received "four two to a thousand pounds" effect.
3, export demand replacement. Although the international economic situation is volatile and uncertain factors, but by deepening the reform of China's foreign trade and economic cooperation system, strengthen structural adjustment, improve policy incentives to enhance the international competitiveness of products and other ways to generate energy, but also can not be underestimated. Under the impact of the Asian financial crisis, our country last year in the introduction of foreign capital to create the results, is a strong proof.
[edit]Empirical Analysis of Positive Fiscal Policy Risk
Positive fiscal policy risk refers to the possibility that the expected goal of positive fiscal policy can not be realized or failed. The performance of its risk can be roughly divided into two aspects: one is the policy decision-making risk, and the other is the policy implementation risk. This shows that the positive fiscal policy risk is not limited to a certain link, but throughout the whole process of the policy. Generally speaking, the reasons leading to the risk of active fiscal policy can be summarized in the following aspects:
(1) the bias in the determination of active fiscal policy objectives. Determination of policy objectives seriously detached from reality, or fiscal policy objectives and national economic development goals are out of touch, or the ambiguity of the fiscal policy objectives themselves, will bring about the corresponding policy risks. (2) In the process of fiscal policy decision-making and implementation, due to insufficient information, information asymmetry and future uncertainty factors. (3) The level and ability of fiscal policy decision makers and implementers also affect the degree of positive fiscal policy risk. (4) The inappropriate choice of fiscal policy tools and the lack of organic cooperation between policy tools. (5) Fiscal policy is seriously lagging behind, and has not been adjusted accordingly with the changes in the economic operating conditions. (6) The strength of the role of fiscal policy is too large or too small. (7) In the process of fiscal policy implementation, due to the obstruction of specific interest groups or policy implementers on the policy understanding of the bias.
The above is just an abstract analysis of the meaning, performance and causes of the risk of positive fiscal policy from a purely theoretical point of view, and the analysis of the risk of China's positive fiscal policy can not stay here, but must be closely linked to the practice of China's positive fiscal policy to be analyzed in concrete terms.
At the fourth meeting of the Standing Committee of the Ninth National People's Congress on Aug. 29, 1998, the State Council passed the "State Council Motion on Drawing Consideration to the Ministry of Finance's Motion on Issuing Additional State Bonds for Accelerating Infrastructure Construction and the Adjustment Program (Draft) of this Year's Central Fiscal Budget, deciding that the Ministry of Finance would issue an additional 100 billion yuan in state bonds to state-owned commercial banks, to be used exclusively for infrastructure construction, and that it would in no way engage in general industrial projects. According to this principle, the national bond fund projects arranged in the year mainly include: agricultural water conservancy and ecological environment construction; railroad, highway, telecommunication and some important airports construction; urban environmental protection and urban infrastructure construction; construction of 50 billion pounds of storage capacity of the national reserve grain depot; rural power grid renovation and construction projects, urban power grid renovation; increase the investment in the construction of public prosecutors, lawyers, and judicial facilities; issuance of special bonds of 270 billion yuan to wholly state-owned commercial banks, supplementing the national bond fund projects; and the issuance of special bonds of 270 billion yuan to wholly state-owned commercial banks. 270 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to replenish their capitalization; and adjusting the export tax rebate rate for some commodities and the tax policy for imported equipment.In 1999, the central government decided to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy in order to further expand domestic demand and encourage exports. In terms of the application of policy measures, the central government not only issued more treasury bonds to banks to expand investment, but also increased the income of the population to promote consumption, and strengthened the construction of infrastructure as well as supported the technological transformation of enterprises. More than 60% of the treasury bonds will be invested in the central and western regions; secondly, we will continue to implement the policies and measures introduced in 1999 to adjust the distribution of income, and to ensure a steady growth in the incomes of urban residents; thirdly, we will further apply taxation and other means to encourage investment, promote consumption, and increase exports. According to the spirit of the central government, in 2001, continue to implement active fiscal policy, the main policy measures include continue to increase the existing national bond funds project investment, increase the development of the western region, strengthen the construction of social security system, etc..
From the effect of the implementation of active fiscal policy in the past three years, through the implementation of active fiscal policy, in 1998 to pull the economic growth of 1.5 percentage points, in 1999 to pull the economic growth of 2 percentage points, and in 2000 to pull the economic growth of 1.7 percentage points (China's official estimates). 2000 GDP growth rate of 8%, the growth rate of the previous year by 0.9 percentage points. This shows that in 2000, China's national economy has taken an important turn towards a virtuous cycle. At the same time, we have to be soberly aware of the fact that, despite the obvious rebound of the national economy in 2000, the foundation of the economic rebound is still unstable, and the competitiveness of China's economy is still relatively weak; the problem of insufficient effective demand has not yet been fundamentally resolved, the enthusiasm of private capital investment has not yet been fully mobilized, and the potential for growth in consumer demand has not yet been fully tapped; the state-owned enterprises have not yet fundamentally transformed the operating mechanism, and the enterprises have not yet been fully mobilized. The management mechanism of state-owned enterprises has not been fundamentally transformed, the economic efficiency of enterprises has not been significantly improved, and many enterprises are operating with great difficulties, and the pressure on employment has been further increased; the foundation of agricultural development is not solid, the growth of farmers' incomes is very slow, and the problem of the excessive burden on farmers has not been solved well; the irrational structure of industries has not been fundamentally changed, and the informatization of the economic and social development is relatively low; and the sustainable development of the national economy lacks a solid foundation. The sustainable development of the national economy lacks a solid foundation.
The implementation of positive fiscal policy has achieved obvious results, but the effect of the policy with our expectations there is still a certain degree of contrast, which shows that the positive fiscal policy in its decision-making and implementation of the process objectively still face certain risks. The main reasons for the policy risk are as follows: firstly, in terms of the objective of the active fiscal policy, it focuses on boosting the annual growth of the economy, and pays insufficient attention to the sustainable development of the national economy. Secondly, when analyzing the reasons for the decline in the economic growth rate over the years, it is believed that it is caused by the lack of domestic demand, and thus the focus of the policy to stimulate economic growth is only on expanding domestic demand, while the lack of full understanding of the problems that exist in the social supply side and due attention. Again, in terms of the choice of policy tools, the main focus was on expanding domestic demand and boosting economic growth through the issuance of additional bonds and the expansion of the scale of fiscal expenditures, while other policy tools were rarely used, and there was a lack of organic cooperation between different fiscal policy tools. Fourthly, in 2000, when the economic growth rate had begun to pick up, the focus of China's fiscal policy was still on expanding demand, and there was no timely strategic shift, and fiscal policy appeared to be seriously lagging behind. Fifth, in dealing with the relationship between the role of fiscal policy and the role of the market mechanism, one-sidedly emphasizing the role of the former, while ignoring the role of the latter, did not correct the status and role of fiscal policy in the market economy, resulting in the strength of the fiscal policy is on the large side, the financial risk, especially the risk of the national debt to further increase. Sixth, positive fiscal policy has not reflected its due fairness, but has tilted too much towards the state-owned economy, with obvious discrimination against other ownerships, especially in terms of financial inputs. This is not in line with the requirements of a market economy and is not conducive to the realization of the goal of economic growth. Seventh, due to layers of retention, misappropriation, it is estimated that about 20% of the national debt funds can not be in place, resulting in the national debt investment projects to stimulate economic growth greatly reduced.
[Edit Paragraph] Basic Countermeasures to Prevent the Risks of Positive Fiscal Policies
1. In determining the objectives of positive fiscal policies, it is necessary to shift from the one-sided pursuit of annual economic growth to ensuring the sustainable development of the national economy. As the highest decision-making level in China, when formulating the objectives of fiscal policy, we should not limit ourselves to ensuring the realization of the annual or term economic growth target, but should focus on the sustainable development of the national economy. Only in this way can China's national economy truly enter a benign development track, and the sustainability of economic growth can be guaranteed. In terms of the sustainable development goals of the national economy, it includes not only the sustained growth of the national economy, but also the transformation of the economic growth mode, the rationalization of the industrial structure, the rationalization of the regional economic structure, the rationalization of the urban and rural economic structure, and the improvement of the ecological environment.
2. The center of gravity of active fiscal policy should be shifted from pulling demand to improving supply. In the early stage of the implementation of active fiscal policy, in response to the harsh reality of the severe shortage of demand, the role of fiscal policy focus on pulling demand, which is simple, easy to operate, and quick results, and therefore is not to be faulted. By 2000, China's economic growth rate had begun to pick up, fixed-asset investment growth had accelerated markedly, and the prices of investment and consumer goods had begun to recover from their decline, which showed that China's demand-management policy had already achieved some results. Although the problem of effective demand has not yet been fundamentally resolved, the main aspect of the conflict has shifted to effective supply. After three years of active expansion of fiscal policy implementation, China's fiscal deficit rate, debt service rate, debt dependence are close to or over the alarm line, although the debt ratio is still low, but the level of China's economic development, relative to the developed countries in the West, the national economy on the national debt capacity is relatively low, and thus the developed countries in the West and the European Union member states to determine the alarm line standard to illustrate China's national debt issuance There is still more space, which is incorrect. According to China's level of economic development, China's national debt burden rate should be controlled within 20% is appropriate, at most shall not exceed 30%, otherwise there is a risk of financial crisis.
It can be seen that, to expand the national debt and the scale of fiscal spending as the main content of the fiscal policy aimed at stimulating demand growth has not much room for maneuver. A single demand management policy can only solve the problem of short-term economic growth, and it is impossible to solve the problem of sustainable development of the national economy. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy, the focus of active fiscal policy should be placed on improving supply and increasing effective supply. Through the role of fiscal policy, to promote the transformation of the mode of economic growth, and make the industrial structure, regional economic structure and urban and rural economic structure gradually rationalization, economic growth and the protection of the ecological environment can be organically coordinated.
3. In the active fiscal policy objectives and policy focus shift, the use of fiscal policy tools must be adjusted accordingly.
First of all, in the national debt, although maintaining a certain amount of national debt issuance is necessary, but the scale of national debt issuance should be strictly controlled, the national debt growth rate should be lower than the growth rate of GDP, so that the degree of risk of national debt can be effectively controlled and reduced. The use of national debt funds should be limited to areas with economic benefits, and focus on basic industries and infrastructure, as well as technological transformation of enterprises and information industry and biomedicine and other high-tech industries. The investment of State bond funds in these areas is not an underwriting or monopoly, but rather focuses on its role as a guide for private capital. State bond funds should be withdrawn from the consumer sector, and social security matters should be resolved through taxation and other non-reimbursable income. In terms of the investment structure of the national bond funds, it is necessary to gradually increase the investment in emerging industries and technological transformation of enterprises, promote the informatization of the national economy and society, and upgrade the traditional industries with high and new technologies and advanced and applicable technologies, in order to promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure and product structure, and to give full play to the "diffusion effect" and the "multiplier effect" of the investment of the national bond funds. "Multiplier effect", pulling the rapid growth of private investment. To increase the supervision and management of the national debt investment process, to ensure that the national debt funds in place, improve the effectiveness of its use. In the process of using the national debt investment to increase the development of the western region, the focus of investment should be placed on the basic industries and infrastructure in the western region, to optimize the investment environment in the western region, and to make the economic complementarity between different regions to be further strengthened.
Secondly, we should give full play to the leverage of financial subsidies. In the market economy, relying on financial investment to support the national key construction, optimization of industrial structure and social investment in the implementation of regulation, which is essential. But in the financial investment accounted for the proportion of social investment in fixed assets is declining, the national debt risk increases, in the face of the medium and long-term optimization of industrial structure of the huge investment capital needs, the financial direct investment often seems to be unable to do. Currently a practical and effective way is to support policy financing through financial subsidies, changing direct investment into indirect pull and guidance. At present to expand the scale of financial subsidy funds, so that it becomes an effective tool to strengthen the supply management.
Once again, to optimize the tax structure through tax reform to stimulate private investment. It is necessary to abolish the fixed-asset investment direction adjustment tax; change the production-based value-added tax into a consumption-based value-added tax, and correspondingly lower its basic tax rate, and abolish the distinction between general taxpayers and small-scale taxpayers; and unify the enterprise income tax, and give domestic and foreign-funded enterprises a fair tax treatment. Regional preferential tax treatment should be abolished and industry-oriented preferential tax treatment should be implemented.
Fourth, we must effectively solve the problem of arbitrary charges, distributions, fines and fund-raising, give full play to the National People's Congress, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the masses of the people and the press and public opinion of the supervisory role, standardize and constrain the government's own behavior, and effectively alleviate the burdens of enterprises and individuals, and to mobilize the enthusiasm for their investment. For example, with regard to government fees and charges, projects relating to government fees and charges and the determination of fees and charges must be approved by the National People's Congress (NPC) or the provincial people's congresses, and adjustments to fees and charges are subject to hearings by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) or the Standing Committee of the Provincial People's Congress (SPC). Governments at all levels are only the executors and administrators of fees and charges, and have no authority to establish projects, determine and adjust fees and charges.
4. Correctly recognize the status and role of fiscal policy in the sustainable development of the national economy. In the market economy, must adhere to the market first, the government's second principle, give full play to the role of the market mechanism, the government's macro-control can only be built on the basis of the role of the market mechanism, the government's fiscal policy is only to make up for the shortcomings and defects of the market mechanism. Therefore, the role of fiscal policy should neither be underestimated nor exaggerated. In the use of fiscal policy to achieve economic development goals, we must pay attention to the strength of the policy and the scope of the role of a good grasp, to maintain fiscal policy of the public **** sex, fairness and moderation. Through the implementation of fiscal policy, it is necessary to make up for the lack of investment in the private sector and actively guide the direction of its investment, rather than crowding out investment in the private sector and competing with it for profits in the economic sphere. As the decision-makers and implementers of fiscal policy, we should focus on improving the level of decision-making and implementation, timely collection and mastery of economic development information, to reduce and avoid the blindness of policy decision-making and policy implementation.
5. The realization of the goal of active fiscal policy and its risk prevention also requires the close cooperation of other economic policies and economic systems. All of China's economic policy and economic system must adapt to the objective requirements of the development of market economy, especially in the historical background of China's imminent accession to the WTO, to ensure its openness, fairness and impartiality. There is still a certain gap between the results of the implementation of fiscal policy and the expected goals, which is not only the problem of the fiscal policy itself, there are other policy and institutional reasons. Such as the lack of private investment in the financial market and capital market support, private investment in industrial access policy barriers, so that private investment in recent years has been in the doldrums. In order to mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, it is necessary to give fair treatment in direct and indirect financing, abolish all kinds of discriminatory rules and regulations, and allow private enterprises to raise funds by issuing stocks, bonds and bank credits in various ways. Institutional barriers to industrial access should be gradually eliminated, the approval system should be changed to a registration and filing system, and all other fields should be opened up to private capital as much as possible, except for those involving national economic security and national defense security, where it is inappropriate to allow private capital to enter. All areas where foreign capital is allowed to enter must be open to domestic private capital.
Monetary policy from "tight" to "moderately loose", which is the nature of monetary policy and monetary policy control direction of a major change. This shift is a wise move to cope with the impact of changes in the international economic environment on China's economy, is effective in boosting domestic demand, give full play to the role of financial support for the real economy, is to prevent a sharp economic downturn, to ensure that sustained and stable growth of the economy is a powerful guarantee.
In my opinion, the moderately loose monetary policy includes at least three meanings: First, this is a "moderate expansion" rather than "full expansion" of monetary policy. The difference between the two policies lies not only in the degree of expansion of the difference, but also in their respective use of the macroeconomic situation faced by the different. Fully expansionary monetary policy is usually used in times of crisis or recession. As a kind of "anti-crisis" macroeconomic policy, its implementation is aimed at shortening the time course of the economic crisis or recession, and pulling the economy to recover; moderately expansionary monetary policy applies to the economic environment where the economy has significantly decelerated or is about to enter a downward cycle, and its implementation is aimed at preserving the impetus of economic growth, curbing the economic downturn, and ensuring the continuity and stability of economic growth. ensure the continuity and stability of economic growth. Obviously, the moderately loose monetary policy choice, and the reality of China's macroeconomic situation is consistent.
Secondly, this policy is different from the tight monetary policy both in terms of qualitative provisions and in terms of "quantitative" changes. The quality of the provisions of needless to say, "quantitative" change is also true. Although there is no one can be used to measure "moderate", recognized, unified standards, but reflects the energy of monetary policy and implementation of the degree of some macrofinancial variables, such as loan growth, loan growth rate, money supply growth rate, etc., the overall level should be significantly higher than the implementation of the period of tight monetary policy.
Third, the components of monetary policy, such as credit policy, interest rate policy, exchange rate policy and the reserve ratio of a class of monetary policy tools should be relaxed, although their role in the implementation of the process of the policy will be different degrees. To expand the scale of credit and interest rate cuts as the main tone of the credit policy and interest rate policy, in the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy in the process of assuming the main role, and the role of the exchange rate policy should not be underestimated. In the face of the decline in China's exports led to a significant contraction in external demand, should change the expectations of unilateral appreciation of the yuan, increase the yuan exchange rate downward floating range.
Moderately loose monetary policy aims to stimulate domestic demand to ensure sustained and stable economic growth. From the point of view of investment demand, the implementation of such a policy on the one hand is conducive to increasing the availability of investment funds, expanding the sources of investment funds, and enhance the investment capacity of enterprises; on the other hand, it will lower the overall level of interest rates and reduce the investment costs of enterprises. These two aspects come together, is conducive to stimulate the investment enthusiasm of enterprises and other economic agents, expanding investment demand. But in the context of overcapacity, to improve the efficiency of investment, so that investment better play the role of driving economic growth, must be guided by the government's policy, so that more investment funds flow to the economic and social development of the "short board", such as "three rural areas", energy saving and environmental protection, independent innovation and high-tech housing. The investment environment should be improved, and industries and sectors should be eliminated. The investment environment should be improved, industry and market barriers should be eliminated, and private capital should be given "national treatment", so that it can participate in financial, education, medical and other areas of investment on the premise of compliance with the law. Certain aggregate-type monetary policy measures should be given a structural regulatory function. Take the reserve requirement ratio, which is a recurrent policy control tool of the central bank, as an example. The "one-size-fits-all" reserve ratio should be changed, and a differential reserve system should be implemented, with relatively low reserve ratios for the regions where the main commodity grain bases are located, and for economically backward regions that are relatively poor in financial resources. This will not only enhance the targeting and effectiveness of policy regulation, but also help to promote the coordinated development of inter-regional economy and the implementation of the scientific concept of development.
Consumption is mainly constrained by the income of laborers, and thus the role of monetary policy in stimulating consumer demand is limited. In expanding consumer demand, the fulcrum of the role of monetary policy should be to strengthen financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in terms of credit and settlement, and to promote SMEs to provide more employment opportunities in order to boost consumption. At the same time, monetary policy should be closely coordinated with industrial policy, income policy, fiscal policy and other macro policies to form a synergy to boost consumer demand.