One, real estate can pull the original cause of economic growth
Where economically developed countries, the real estate industry is not a pillar industry is also a developed industry, its economic development and the developed real estate industry on the economic pull. The pull or ripple effect of the real estate industry is particularly strong, mainly due to the following reasons.
1. The development of real estate industry needs many sectors and industries in the national economy to supply material materials to cooperate with its development.
70% of China's construction cost is material consumption, by other sectors and industries to sell products with. The development of real estate industry needs the national economy of building materials, equipment, machinery, metallurgy, ceramics, instrumentation, forest industry, chemical and plastic, glass, hardware, fuel and power and many other material production departments and service industries to produce products and services to match, so as to wave, pulling its development.
2. The real estate industry development results of real estate products, for the development of many sectors of the national economy and industry to provide the premise and place.
The development and construction of housing can provide the prerequisites and places for the development of commerce, furniture industry, household electrical appliances industry, housing decoration industry, gardening industry, family communication industry, moving companies, housing finance and insurance industry, property management industry, family contract service industry, housing trade intermediary industry, etc. The main means of production of the third industry is housing. The main means of production of the third industry is housing, with housing for its development to provide the prerequisites to promote its development.
3. Consumption of real estate products, especially housing consumption is a comprehensive consumption, affecting and driving all aspects of life consumption.
Real estate consumption, especially housing consumption is a kind of comprehensive consumption, affecting food, clothing, use, housing, transportation, entertainment, fitness, learning, socializing, enjoyment, development and other aspects of people's lives. Housing has a high-level and low-level points, high-level housing is not only a means of survival, or enjoy the development of materials, the world's leading politicians said?quot; man-made houses, houses make people.
Therefore, the development of the real estate industry, improve the level of housing consumption of residents, from the comprehensive consumption of housing, other aspects of people's lives to create the conditions for the improvement of the level of consumption of life and promote the overall improvement of the level of consumption. On the line, some people in our country want to buy a car, worry about no parking place. If the level of housing is improved, the family has a garage, I think it will promote the car into the home and consumption. Again, such as fitness and recreation consumption, many families suffer from housing is narrow, want to fitness consumption also dare not purchase fitness equipment. In short, the housing level and improve the living environment, can promote the consumption of many aspects of life, pulling many aspects of product sales and labor exchange.
Just because the development of real estate industry has a strong ripple effect, there are many aspects of the role of national economic development, so the development of the real estate industry in the international arena has the following statistics and records: industrialized countries, the value of real estate increased by 1 unit, driven by the related industry output increased by l, 5 units to 2 units. According to the Shanghai academy of social sciences in 1981 on China's input-output table research shows that China's housing industry, each input increased by 100 million yuan, the other 23 related industries to increase 147.9 million yuan of investment, of which building materials, metallurgy, agriculture and forestry, machinery industry and other four sectors to increase the input of 0.70 billion yuan. Some scholars estimate that the development of real estate industry can directly and indirectly drive the development of more than 60 sectors and industries. For this reason, Comrade Deng Xiaoping as early as in the early stages of reform pointed out that China's real estate industry should be developed into a pillar industry of the national economy. 1996 our government in the formulation of the Ninth Five-Year Plan and the 2010 Vision Outline, but also put forward to the housing and automobile to become a new pillar industry of the national economy of the idea.
Second, China's real estate market to start the many problems
To develop the real estate industry to stimulate the national economy, the government introduced a reduction in taxes and fees, bank interest rate cuts, public housing sold to individuals, the implementation of mortgages, the opening of the secondary market for housing, and many other policies and measures to promote investment in real estate and the development of the real estate industry can not be said to not have a role to play, but it is not ideal. The reason for this is that there are not conducive to the effective realization of the fundamental deep-rooted problems of housing products.
1. Production and consumption are not coordinated, low consumption rate.
Development of the real estate industry to pull the economy is conditional on the realization of real estate products. Investment and development of real estate is the biggest problem is also the realization of housing. Investment in the development of real estate both demand effect to stimulate economic growth, but also the supply effect, and this is the essence of the effect of investment. If the investment and development of real estate can not produce demand effect, can not be realized, the long-term development of the national economy only
The role of hemlock, and exacerbate the national economy in the real estate products backlog. If the investment and development of real estate products have a demand effect, can be sold smoothly, the national economy will pull the multiplier is large, the real estate market supply and demand operation to maintain a benign state.
But investment in the development of real estate products have demand effects, the multiplier effect of pulling economic growth, must have a reasonable final consumption rate and the national currency purchasing power. However, China's rapid economic growth in the past 20 years, although the residents of the absolute amount of final consumption is also growing, but the final consumption rate is a downward trend. 1996 and 1981 than, according to the 1978 constant prices fell 10.6 percentage points. The reason for this is that the average annual growth rate of per capita income for urban and rural residents from 1986 to 1998 was 4 percentage points less than the average annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) and 2.6 percentage points less than the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP over the same period. This led to a 12-percentage-point drop in the share of residents' income in GDP in this period compared with the average for the Sixth Five-Year Plan period; in 1998, this share was 41.4 percent, nearly 20 percentage points lower than the average for the Sixth Five-Year Plan period. The international average for the consumption rate of the population is about 60 percent.
Famous development economist H. Chinnery and others conducted an empirical study showed that in the per capita (GDP) of about 1,000 U.S. dollars when the consumption rate is generally 61%, in 1997, China's per capita GDP of 860 U.S. dollars, but China's consumption rate of only 47.5%, 14 percentage points lower than the international average. Our consumption rate is so low. It is the accumulation of a long period of low wages and people's income growth rate lagging behind the GDP growth rate. This situation leads to a backlog of products and affects the smooth flow of reproduction. Take the development of housing, the reform of the beginning of urban per capita housing more than 3 square meters, now many cities and towns per capita has more than l0 square meters, and the price of housing has doubled several times. However, the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased only 2.11 times from 1978 to 1997, and there is still a great deal of investment in development everywhere. Production and consumption is not coordinated, the consumption rate is too low, is the crux of the real estate is difficult to start.
2. Asymmetry in the conversion of the housing finance system.
Before the reform, China implemented a low-wage system, employees and cadres of the labor remuneration is actually paid in the form of monetary wages and remuneration in kind. Monetary wages took care of food and clothing, while remuneration in kind took care of housing, medical care and study. This was in keeping with the leftist ideology and system of one big two publics at that time. The value of the product (c v m) in the v artificially narrowed, m artificially enlarged, employee housing funds, etc. by the enlarged m into the treasury, the national public **** financing the construction of housing, housing, state-owned, employees gratuitous use. The essence of the reform of the housing system is to convert the financial public **** financing system for personal financing system to adapt to the requirements of the market economic system.
Housing fund into the employee's salary, by the employee's personal financing to the market to purchase housing consumption, the government is no longer welfare in kind housing. Now the housing reform is also in this way in the change, on the one hand, to employees housing subsidies, on the one hand, to employees money to buy a house. But in the specific practice of reform asymmetry and incoherence, employees monetary purchase of housing is immediately to take the money out, and the government's wage subsidies to employees is a lot of thunder, a little rain. Imagine now, in addition to coastal cities, the vast majority of cities and towns in the country's average annual income of employees only a few thousand dollars or so, a few years ago even lower. Now all of a sudden to come up with tens of thousands of dollars, more than 100,000 dollars to buy a house is difficult. Is the implementation of mortgage, a month to pay the principal and interest of a few hundred dollars, many workers are also daunted, the bank also dare not lend. Originally, the consumption rate is too low, coupled with asymmetric conversion of the housing finance system, so that the housing market is more difficult to start.
3. Dichotomy and people's psychological expectations are out of balance.
Today to make people happy to invest in real estate and start real estate, the key lies in the psychological expectations of the residents confidence, eliminate psychological barriers to the purchase of housing, the future income and expenditure with confidence. But to residents have confidence in the future, there should be appropriate consumer policies, systems. Consumption policy, in the final analysis, can only regulate two balanced relationship: First, the individual's financial assets for investment and consumption of the balance of the relationship; Second, the immediate consumption and forward consumption of the balance of the relationship. More for investment is less for consumption, and more for immediate consumption is less for forward consumption.
But now the policy is: on the one hand, to encourage people to invest in stocks, solve the problem of financing state-owned enterprises, and change indirect investment into direct investment, on the other hand, and the media publicity to encourage people to the market to buy a relative surplus of commodities, to encourage people to spend money on tourism. On the one hand, let people spend money quickly, spend money now, buy the market current consumption relative surplus commodities, on the other hand, and the introduction of housing reform, health care reform, education reform, especially the purchase of housing, for the long-term consumption of more responsibility. On the one hand, layoffs, employment difficulties, income expectations are not optimistic, on the other hand, spending is expected to increase, the residents of the future income and expenditure of the psychological expectations of the loss of confidence. Government policy will solve the current major problems in the national economy and solve the housing backlog, are pressed on the bank savings deposits 6 trillion.
Here do not talk about the factors of income distribution gap, nor talk about 80% of the residents accounted for only 20% of the savings deposits, only on China's 1.25 billion people, per capita deposits are only about 5,000 yuan, the family level (3.8 people) is only 17,000 yuan, the general population of household level deposits is even less. Income budget reduction, expenditure is expected to increase, is the implementation of mortgage home purchase, people are also cautious about home purchase, even if the family has a small amount of savings, residents in order to live in security, savings prudent function plays a dominant role, do not dare to take out the purchase of a home.
4. The income distribution gap is widening and the marginal propensity to consume is declining.
In our country a per capita GDP is at a low level of the country, the current level of final consumption of 58.8%, the level of consumption of 47.5% of the residents of the obviously low situation, in recent years, the income distribution gap is widening.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics in 1995 on the country's 35,000 urban residents and 70,000 farmers sample survey confirmed that in 1995 the national urban residents per capita disposable income of 4,283 yuan, per capita cost of living income of 3,893 yuan, are compared with the 1994 actual growth of 4.9%. 1996 per capita disposable income and per capita cost of living expenditures, and again, compared with the actual growth of 4% or more in 1995. In 1996, both per capita disposable income and per capita cost-of-living expenditures increased by more than 4 percent over 1995. However, at the same time, in the growth of per capita income, the income of the residents in the income reduction surface and expanding. 1994, the first half of the country's urban residents in the income reduction surface of 37.9%, than the same period in 1993 to expand by 2.7 percentage points; in 1995, the country's average income of the urban residents of nearly 5 percentage points of growth in income at the same time, but 41% of the residents of the income reduction surface than the residents of the income reduction surface of the expansion of the year 1994. In particular, the reduction in income was concentrated in the low-income groups; from 1997 to 1998, per capita income in China's cities and towns was still on an upward trend, while at the same time, as a result of economic restructuring and the economic downturn that led to a large number of layoffs of workers and a decrease in their incomes, the reduction in income was still concentrated in the lower-income groups, and the income gap continued to widen, even to the point of being extremely wide. This income gap is manifested in different groups, for example, private enterprises (including foreign-funded enterprises) in the employer's income is generally 10 times that of the average worker, and some as high as 100 times more.
Some estimate that there are now more than a million millionaires in China, and more than 10 billionaires. This excessive income gap is reflected in China's Gini coefficient, 28.8 in the 1980s and 38.8 in the 1990s, widening the gap between rich and poor. This excessive income disparity is reflected in the savings deposits of residents, where the rich, who make up 20 percent of the population, own 80 percent of the $6 trillion in deposits, while residents, who make up 80 percent of the population, have only 20 percent of the $6 trillion in deposits.
Life consumption expenditures in the presentation of the law is the marginal propensity to consume in the low-income class is higher than the propensity to consume in the high-income class, and the marginal efficiency of money in the low-income class is higher than the marginal efficiency of money in the high-income class. According to the analysis of the results of the survey on the basic situation of 36370 households in 1996 and 37890 households in 1997 in China's urban residents, also confirms the above principle. 1996 to 1997, China's lowest-income households consumption expenditure growth rate of 0.25%, the highest-income households consumption expenditure growth rate of 12.78%, from the longitudinal direction can be seen in the process of people's income increases, the absolute amount of consumption expenditure grows accordingly. The absolute amount of consumption expenditure grows accordingly. But the lowest income households and the highest income households income households elasticity of demand coefficient, that is, consumption expenditure growth rate and the ratio of the growth rate of all incomes, the lowest income households for 2.5, the highest income households for 1.13. That is to say, the former growth of income than the latter growth of income, there is a larger proportion for consumption expenditure. As a result of the widening gap in income distribution in our country, the surface of income reduction has widened in recent years, and the surface of income reduction has been mainly concentrated in the low-income group, while the surface of income increase has been mainly concentrated in the high-income group. This led to 1981 to 1997, China's marginal propensity to consume urban residents from 0.84 to 0.64.
In terms of the acquisition of real estate and real estate start, poor housing conditions, eager to buy a house of low-income groups, although the coefficient of elasticity of income demand, high marginal propensity to consume, but not capable of purchasing a house, and income distribution of income increase is mainly concentrated in the high-income groups, have the the ability to buy a house, but they have a small coefficient of elasticity of demand, a low marginal propensity to consume, and relatively good housing conditions, and are not in a hurry to buy a house. So the development of housing is difficult to realize, real estate is difficult to start.
Three, start China's real estate industry concept
1. Continue to implement anti-recession and regulate the economic cycle of policy measures.
Starting real estate, we believe that we should distinguish between general policy measures and special strategies for the actual. The policy measures introduced by the government some time ago should be seen to be actually the practice guided by the general theory of anti-recession and regulation of economic cycles in market economies; for example, lowering the interest rate of banks, lowering the reserve requirement for deposits and encouraging banks to lend, expanding fiscal expenditure, substantially increasing the wages of employees and enhancing the purchasing power of residents, reducing taxes and fees, encouraging residents to invest in stocks and bonds, etc., the policy measures to stop prices from continuing to fall and slump, preventing the national economy from falling and slumping. The policy measures have played a role in preventing prices from continuing to fall and slump, preventing the national economy from slumping and declining, and regulating the national economy's growth trend and stable development from different angles. Of course, they also regulate the development of real estate economy to different degrees. Because there is a relationship between the real estate industry and the national economy of the summer and summer table. In the future, both for the national economy out of the doldrums, or to start the real estate need to continue to implement these policy measures.
However, due to the existence of the aforementioned unfavorable real estate to realize the deep-rooted problems, and these problems accumulated over the years is not a short-term immediate solution, so the start of the real estate rely solely on the aforementioned general policy measures, will not be ideal, will not be quicker to see the results. For example: due to the residents income growth rate for a long time lagging behind the GDP growth rate of the formation of too low consumption rate, caused by the residents to buy a house monetary payment ability is insufficient, it is not possible in one or two years by raising wages, increase income, make up for the GDP accounted for nearly 14 percentage points, to reach the residents consumption rate of 60% of a reasonable proportion. This is because it will take a longer period of time and involve a complex process. In addition to raising the wages of employed workers year by year, but also to reduce unemployment and increase employment, but also the development of small towns; to increase employment and depends on the economic structure to adjust to a reasonable, while the economic structure of a reasonable adjustment and depends on the policy formulation and implementation of time and process.
To start real estate faster, in addition to continue to implement the general policy to stimulate the development of the national economy, but also from the practical point of view, targeted implementation of some special strategies.
2. Targeted start real estate in the near future strategy.
(1) seize the higher income level groups to tax with the start of real estate. At present, China's banks 6 trillion savings deposits, if you do a specific analysis, you can not simply say that residents do not have the ability to buy a home, or have the money do not dare to spend the conclusion. This 6 trillion deposits in a substantial part of the high-income or higher income class all.
According to the Economic Daily News, May 20, 1999, the front page of Guo Kesha's article on how to view the coordinated growth of investment and consumption, said: At present, China's scientific and technological education has formed a sizeable high-income class, they have bank deposits in the residents of the total amount of savings is estimated to account for about 20%. Intellectuals to improve housing conditions, the government attaches great importance to, they themselves are also looking forward to
higher housing standards and better living environment. The intellectuals' incomes are not only stable and growing rapidly, but they are also confident in their psychological expectations of future income and expenditure. If the government to preferential prices to lease out some of the environment of the better land, development and construction of some high-grade apartments, villas, and to reduce or waive the remuneration for services, remuneration, royalties, etc., personal income tax, they should be happy to invest in the purchase of real estate. This not only can start the real estate to stimulate economic growth multiplier, but also improve the living and working conditions of intellectuals, but also conducive to the socialization of the service system of colleges and universities and scientific research units.
Entrepreneurs, private business owners, entertainment stars and so on is our high-income class. Housing has the function of showing social status. If the government can lease out some of the elegant environment of the land, development and construction of a high level of villas, and the title of the entrepreneur garden, star villa court, and improve the supporting communication center, negotiation center, social places, entertainment palace, shopping building, where both the living environment is elegant, but also to show that their reputation and status, but also conducive to the exchange of their business information and social contacts. If coupled with the government's reduction of personal income tax, part of the private sector income tax, they will be happy to invest in the purchase.
(2) seize the socialization of the university service system, the development of student apartments and their living facilities shoulder real estate. The Ministry of Education plans to expand enrollment in the next five consecutive years to reach 10 million students in 2005, catching up with the world average of 15% of young people studying in colleges and universities. Reform of the education system requires the socialization of the university service system, and by 2005 to reach the teacher-student ratio of 1:14. This reform has brought opportunities for real estate development, promising. A college student's annual normal consumption (including tuition) 10,000 yuan, 10 million college students counted 100 billion yuan. Only on the student apartments, each student 5 square meters (including toilets, washrooms), you have to build, reconstruction of 50 million square meters; in addition to building, reconstruction for ten million college students to live in the cafeteria, washing, entertainment, shopping, communications, supporting housing, as well as for their services to the living room of the relevant personnel. The development of student apartments and supporting housing, is only worried about the development and construction and not worried about sales and leasing, there is no housing value of the realization of the difficult problem.
Currently, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Economic Weather Monitoring Center announced the results of the survey on the willingness of residents to save and consume shows that 10% of the residents' savings deposits are ready to be used for education expenditure. Wuhan City, up to 40% of the depositors are for education and deposit. December 1998, a college in Wuhan, real estate professionals on the school's 200 students to conduct a questionnaire survey, would like to choose a one-room living room with a bathroom of 90 people, accounting for 47%; would like to choose a two-room living room with a bathroom of 60 people, accounting for 32%; would like to choose a single-room living room with a bathroom of 30 people, accounting for 15%; would like to choose a single-room living room with a shared bathroom of 30 people, accounting for 15%; would like to choose a single-room living room with a shared bathroom of 30 people, accounting for 15%. choose a single room with a shared bathroom was 11, or 6%. But the school students are now common 6-8 people a room, corridor layout of the student dormitory, living in the dark and damp environment for a long time, urgently need to live in student apartments. 1999 Shanghai Vegetable University, the new student apartments can only be occupied by 180, while the registration requirements for up to 1,400 students to live in the apartments have become a sought-after goods. Where this shows that both the new development, renovation, or now the sale of vacant houses, seize the socialization of university logistics services, to start real estate to stimulate economic growth, are promising.
(3) with the broad concept of the real estate industry to develop the real estate industry, start real estate. Now many people in the start of real estate and the development of real estate industry, thinking only limited to building and selling houses, suffering from housing is difficult to realize. If we start from the broad concept of real estate industry, we will have an open mind and a different world. The nature of real estate industry is commercial service industry, which belongs to the third industry in essence. It is an industry which mainly focuses on the exchange and circulation of real estate, and also provides technical, intermediary and labor services for the circulation, investment and development, consumption and use of real estate. Therefore, the real estate industry has many departments, industries and fields. If the connotation of the real estate industry from the comprehensive consideration of the problem to develop the real estate industry, not only is conducive to the sound improvement of the real estate market, favorable real estate development and sale, but also help real estate development, pulling the economic growth.
The house in the use of consumption in the decoration industry, whether to create the output value or the pull of the national economy are not to be underestimated. Now the city relocation of new housing for decoration investment, less than tens of thousands, more than 100,000, more than 100,000 yuan, and even some individual decoration investment is greater than the investment in the purchase of housing. Many families do not serve the new housing, in order to improve the living environment, but also in the investment of ten thousand dollars, tens of thousands of dollars in renovation.
In Wuhan 99 International Interior Decoration Expo, Hubei Province, director of the Economic and Trade Commission Gu Yuchuan made a calculation, said the province's cities have 7 million families, according to the annual 1/20 families for renovation, an average investment of 20,000 yuan per household, the total amount of annual works of 6 billion. The relevant departments said that the current home decoration industry in Hubei Province to 15% a 20% annual growth rate, is expected to reach 40 billion yuan in 2010 output value. Should also be seen due to the current decoration market, more than scattered soldiers, low level of technology, fraud phenomenon often, many families want to decorate for fear of spending money to buy gas, is waiting to see. If the decoration market standardization, the formation of large-scale high-tech reputable companies as the main market, people out of money can really buy to enjoy the decoration, decoration market potential. For example, now many urban residential areas, supporting facilities are incomplete, lack of residential services, life is not convenient. These supporting housing development and residential services, but also the development of real estate industry.
All these areas of real estate industry activities, are in need of capital investment, labor input, material and equipment input, the start of the real estate industry is beneficial, but also help to stimulate the growth of the national economy, but also to solve the problem of employment and increase the income of residents.
(4) a comprehensive understanding of the currency purchase to start the real estate industry, stimulate economic growth. Currency purchase, that is, the abolition of the unit of physical welfare housing, employees to their own monetary income to solve the housing problem. In essence, the abolition of welfare housing consumption, labor income in exchange for housing. As for the residents to obtain housing in a variety of forms, this is another matter. He can use his own money to buy a house on the market, or a house on the market, he can exchange his other property for housing, he can buy building materials and labor to build a house, he can build a house in cooperation, he can rent a house, and he can build a house with the capital of his unit. These forms are all specific manifestations of monetary purchase of housing, are the revolution of welfare housing consumption. Now some units of land is wide, employees are willing to build housing, as long as the state finance does not spend, the unit is not subsidized, should be able to continue to build housing.
In fact, now some provinces such as Jilin Province, the provisions of the continued unit of workers to build housing, effective solution to housing and stimulate economic growth. Can not be capital building and money to buy housing reform in opposition to the realization of the form of money to buy housing reform absolutely
Conversation, the form and content of the conflation. The crux of the matter is that individuals pay for housing. Now capitalized housing, its prices are roughly equivalent or close to the market price, if the workers are happy why not do it. Crowdfunded housing potential is very large, Wuhan, a large unit of the first two times to build housing funds nearly one hundred million dollars of investment. And is a week to pay all the capital.
The current national economic downturn, to start real estate to stimulate economic growth, is not an effective measure. If the hard provisions of the unit workers to come up with a hundred million dollars to the market to buy a house, talk about how easy it is. Pooled-funded housing why have this great mobilizing power? Mainly living without losing familiar environment and interpersonal relationships, not afraid of fraud in the purchase of housing, not for the purchase of housing labor, work and life convenience. This form of effective and successful, is to build housing prices shall not be higher than or roughly equivalent to the market economy, the practical price of housing, capital should be fair and equitable. Otherwise, some people use their power for personal gain, or the price is too high or too low, not only against the housing reform, and even undermine stability and unity. There is no pure and pure things in the world, the realization of the form of monetary housing reform should be diversified, they are the same auspicious can start real estate, the same wave of the national economy, many sectors and industries, pulling the national economic growth.
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