Has always been, the pharmaceutical industry is the most bullish as well as high valuation of the A-share plate, the entire pharmaceutical industry rose a lot last year, 2020 the highest up 66%, many stocks a year doubled several times, such as vaccine stocks since last year is that valuation of hundreds of times are not a few.
The start of 2021 to now, pharmaceutical stocks fell a lot.
From August last year began to fall, pharmaceutical stocks as a whole began to pull back, the total level of 15% or so, some of the problems of individual stocks fell a little more severe, such as Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals fell 61%, the first shares of the first stock of forgery Comet Pharmaceuticals fell, the science and technology board Microchip Biological fell 55%.
Even the leading stocks that have been indestructible, such as Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Myriad Healthcare, Changchun High-tech, WuXi Kantech, Aier Ophthalmology, Fosun Pharmaceuticals, the retracement is also quite a lot. For example, Changchun High-tech from the highest 513 fell to 347 yuan, Fosun Pharmaceutical is from 79 yuan to 45 yuan.
Vaccine plate is the same overall plunge. For example, Zhifei biological from the highest 193 yuan to 114 yuan; Kangtai biological also fell from the highest 249 yuan to a minimum of 156 yuan; Watson biological from 95 yuan to a minimum of 48 yuan, can not be said to be not tragic!
After the overall pullback in pharmaceutical stocks, can you still buy?
First look at the valuation, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical industry, there are 51 times the PE, my point is that, as an index, 51 times the PE is not normal, individual stocks PE 51 times not too much of a problem, because some of the stocks are in the high-speed growth, PE is high, it does not matter, the growth can be (digestive valuation), but as an industry 51 times a little on the high side.
China's pharmaceutical spending and health insurance spending growth rate is directly linked to this growth rate in the past few years has begun to pull back, before it is very fast, before the industry growth rate is 20% annualized, now down a lot, so PE51 times my own view A-share pharmaceuticals is more expensive. Therefore, the opportunity of pharmaceutical stocks is still in individual stocks, want to universal pattern, the probability is not likely to appear.
From the long term, pharmaceutical stocks face what shortcomings?
Obviously still centralized procurement, most of China's A-share drug companies are generic drug companies, hit by the centralized procurement, which is negative for the whole industry.
For example, the total size of a drug before may be 5 billion or billions, 5 billion to the centralized procurement may be less than 1 billion, the total size of the big drop, but also a big drop in profit margins, so the centralized procurement of the impact on the generic drug companies is very large, and the trend may be irreversible.
So, where are the investment opportunities in pharmaceutical stocks?
First of all, or choose some old-fashioned leading and some characteristics of the enterprise, because the A-share listing for so long, some traditional enterprises are already leading, the most typical Hengrui medicine this absolute leader, but also includes some devices, CRO, there are very good leaders, just valuation is high. Even if you buy expensive, but the enterprise is very good, the worst case scenario is to lose time, your return is very low, the yield is low, but generally will not lose the capital, as long as the patience to hold. But buying wrong is bad, so this kind of old leaders in qualitative is not too big problem, are very good.
Secondly, you can pay attention to the characteristics of the enterprise, because A-share listed companies, the pharmaceutical industry segmentation is particularly large, there are also some enterprises affected by the collection of very small, or even no collection of the impact of the most typical example is similar to the Changchun High-tech, Pientzehuang this kind of, it sells things are not related to the collection of the collection of things, this kind of business if the valuation of the cheap in fact, you can also consider.
This year's investment strategy on pharmaceutical stocks, or patiently waiting for the valuation of leading enterprises to return to reasonable, generally speaking for leading enterprises I am not too entangled in the valuation ,I do not need to plummet,,
. strong>rare investment value,or a crash,super low valuation,< Historical lows,I think it's hard to wait for this kind of opportunity,Generally speaking, valuations return to a reasonable level and I'll allocate a little bit,Of course I'll add to my position if it falls hard.
After all, a good stock with a reasonable value will be able to get out, as to whether it will smash out of the gold pit, that depends on God's will.
Looking for adoption, there are questions you can pay attention to me, private letter.