The Wall Street storm caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has now evolved into a global financial crisis. The rapid development of this process, the number of large, huge impact, it can be said that people were not expected. Broadly speaking, it can be divided into three stages: First, the debt crisis, borrowed housing lenders, can not repay the principal and interest on time caused by the problem. The second stage is the liquidity crisis. Some of the financial institutions concerned were not able to have sufficient liquidity in time to meet the demands of creditors for liquidity as a result of the debt crisis of these financial institutions. The third stage is the credit crisis. That is to say, people are skeptical of financial activities based on credit, resulting in such a crisis.
Simply put, the Americans are playing the subprime game, and then the rest of the world has purchased these bonds, so all of them are implicated, and some countries because of the economic crisis in the United States and other developed countries, so imports are reduced, then the export-dependent countries are more seriously injured.
Secondly, the impact on China is due to the fact that, first of all, some of China's financial institutions have purchased U.S. bonds, and secondly, there are a lot of companies in China that depend on exports, which in turn affects the entire market.
Third, the impact of the subprime crisis on China's economy
First, the subprime crisis mainly affects China's exports.
The subprime crisis has caused a slowdown in the U.S. economy and global economic growth, and the impact on China's economy can not be ignored, and this is mainly on the impact of exports. 2007, due to the weak demand for imports from the U.S. and Europe, the growth rate of China's monthly exports has been declined from 51.6% in February 2007 to 21.7% in December. The decline in China's export growth caused by the U.S. subprime crisis will, on the one hand, cause China's economic growth to slow down to a certain extent and, at the same time, due to the slowdown in China's economic growth, the demand for labor in the society is less than the supply of labor, which will lead to an increase in the pressure on the employment of the whole society.
Secondly, China will face the double pressure of slowing economic growth and severe employment situation.
China's CPI has been less than 4% for two consecutive months, respectively 4.0% in October and 2.4% in November, while the PPI was 3.2% in October and 2% in November, the economic situation is very grim, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was only 9%, and the profitability of industrial enterprises in November was only 4.9%, the real economy, especially the industry is facing tremendous pressure. The real economy, especially industry, is under tremendous pressure. And the closure of a large number of small and medium-sized processing enterprises, but also exacerbated the grim situation of unemployment, now our country's top economic priority is to maintain growth and promote employment.
Finally, the subprime crisis will increase our exchange rate risk and capital market risk.
In order to cope with the negative impact of the subprime crisis, the United States has adopted a loose monetary policy and weak dollar exchange rate policy. The sharp depreciation of the dollar has brought China a huge exchange rate risk. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have been reduced from more than 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars to 1.89 trillion U.S. dollars, the dollar depreciation of 10-20% of the stock loss is very huge. In the developed countries, economic slowdown, China's sustained economic growth, the continued depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the yuan is expected to remain unchanged, the accelerated flow of international capital to China to find a safe haven, will exacerbate the risk of China's capital markets.
But the most people did not expect is once rose to 147 U.S. dollars of oil, and even some people predicted that next year will rise to 200 or even 300 U.S. dollars of ultra-high prices, all the way to a wild fall, first point broke the 70 U.S. dollar mark, and after the constant challenge to the people's expectations, broken 60, and then broken 50, until the current more than 40 U.S. dollars a barrel, and OPEC has continued to cut production, and has now reduced the original production of Twelve percent, and non-OPEC oil-producing powerhouse Russia has also significantly reduced production, the short term oil has not risen signs. And once crazy mineral prices also because of China's manufacturing demand is not enough also appeared a sharp decline.