The magical confidence index of private equity organizations is once again showing its power! In October this year, the Shanghai index fell to 2885 points, measuring the confidence index of private fund managers also fell to the lowest point in the past 12 months.
And the market tends to produce in desperation, since November, the Shanghai index, the Shenzhen Composite Index rebounded more than 10%, dare to increase positions against the trend of investors not only back to the capital, there is a certain gain.
But against the trend of the bottom is never an easy thing, even as a professional organization, most of the private equity dare not reverse the layout of the market in the darkest.
01
Magic indicators again
According to the Securities Times, the Rongzhi-China Hedge Fund Managers A-share Confidence Index in November hit a new low in the past 12 months, falling below 100 points to 97.8 (the confidence index statistics for the end of October and early November). The confidence index was counted at the end of October and the beginning of November). However, in the private fund managers the most lack of confidence in the moment, A shares suddenly launched a wave of violent rebound, so that the low cut meat caught off guard.
It is worth noting that in January 2019, when the Shanghai index fell to a low of 2,440 points, the confidence index and position index of private equity are also located in the low point, but since then the A-share opened a two-year 1,000-point rally, out of the white horse bull market.
2022 March similar situation again, when the confidence index of private fund managers fell into a low point, and then A shares opened a wave of growth track stocks structural bull market.
02
Why is it indicative?
"Greed when others are fearful, fear when others are greedy" is easier said than done. Fear comes when investors are more at the bottom of the stock market to sell stocks, and the value of individual stocks is blind.
In mid-October, the dividend index, for example, the index was corresponding to the dividend yield of 6.9%, the corresponding price-earnings ratio of just 5 times; CSI 300 index dividend yield of 2.86%, the corresponding price-earnings ratio of 11.19 times; SSE index corresponding to the dividend yield of 2.94%, the corresponding price-earnings ratio of 11.82 times. Although it is impossible to measure the investment by one formula, the value embedded in the overall sector is obvious.
But the blue-chip white horse stocks in October was a concentrated sell-off, weighted stocks fell heavily. Such as China Merchants Bank fell 20% in October, Guizhou Maotai fell 27%, Haitian taste industry fell 28%, the United States Group fell 18.5%, Yili shares fell 23%. However, in the face of only 5 times the price-earnings ratio of China Merchants Bank, 6 times the price-earnings ratio of Gree Electric Appliances, relative to the peak of 2,600 yuan retreated nearly half of Guizhou Maotai, including private fund managers, including many investors did not show greed.
Why is the confidence index of private equity fund managers a reverse indicator? Some analysts believe that the first is due to the majority of private equity products do is absolute return, you have to run faster than others, or face the pressure of performance is not small.
Secondly, although many private equity advertises itself as value investment, but in fact, is "to pay attention to the market feedback, the market is always more than they know", so the actual operation of the market rise and buy, because the market fell and sell.
And this instead becomes one of the important indicators to observe whether the market has bottomed out. For example, in January 2019, the SSE index reached a new low of 2,440 points, the average position of private equity is 57%, a one-year low, while in January 2018 the average position of private equity is 70.25%.
03
Northbound funds exploded to buy the big white horses
And on the other hand, northbound funds are resolutely bottoming out since November, and buying the same big white horse value stocks.
Choice data show that so far in November, the northward funds total net inflow of A shares of more than 82 billion yuan, and the vast majority of stocks in front of the increase in white horse leading stocks in various industries, which increased the amount of more than 500 million yuan of stocks totaled 61.
Specifically, the first in line is the United States Group, increasing the amount of nearly 9 billion yuan; the second in line is the Myriad Medical, increasing the amount of nearly 6 billion yuan.
Wuliangye, Ningde Times, Guizhou Maotai, Zijin Mining, Ping An, China Merchants Bank, Dongfang Rainbow, China CDFG, Gree Electric Appliances, Focus Media, and other stocks to the north to increase the amount of positions in the 5.9 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan ranging.
04
Institutions: 1 trillion incremental entry is expected next year
2022 has entered the end. Recently, the brokerage firms have released for the A-share market outlook for 2023, in general, the brokerage firms on next year's market is generally more optimistic attitude.
Some organizations estimate that 1 trillion dollars of capital is expected to flow into the A-share market in 2023. Haitong Securities said that in the resident asset allocation force to promote, public funds are expected to continue to become the main source of incremental funds in the stock market; in addition to the public fund-raising, long term funds represented by insurance funds are also expected to further inflow of A-share market, the recent policy has been actively guiding the long term funds to enter the market; foreign capital, 2022 net inflow of foreign capital into the A-share scale compared with the previous years is low, and next year is expected to China's fundamentals will be steadily improving, U.S. bond rates may usher in a trend inflection point, foreign capital is expected to return to the A-share market. From a comprehensive point of view, it is expected that in 2023 the incremental capital of A shares is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan.
For the incremental capital of the market in 2023, CITIC Securities said that the main sources of incremental capital for A shares in 2023 are foreign capital and private equity. Foreign capital, with this year's negative factors disturbing foreign capital to increase A-share gradually improve, as well as next year's slow appreciation of the yuan, is expected to restore the scale of net inflow of foreign capital is expected to be more than 100 billion level. Private equity, subjective long products as of the fourth quarter still maintain a low position, is expected to re-entry next year as the fundamentals pick up. Public placement, the overall poor performance this year or lead to next year's new issue continues to be sluggish, the redemption of existing funds may be enlarged with the market repair, the net increase in funds after the offset of new issue and net redemptions is limited. Insurers and wealth management sub-aspects, this year's equity market volatility makes such low-risk preference institutions position is generally not high, the current cost-effectiveness of blue chips highlights the expectation that this type of funds or gradually turn to active configuration mode. In addition, it is expected that next year IPO and industrial capital reduction on the field liquidity diversion scale compared to this year rose slightly.
CICC believes that the supply and demand of stock market capital is expected to improve in 2023 compared with 2022. It is expected that the repair of investor sentiment in 2023 is expected to drive the warming of public fund issuance, it is expected that the issuance of biased equity funds in 2023 will be about 600 billion shares - 900 billion shares, corresponding to the size of the incremental funds contributed by equity positions of about 400 billion yuan - 700 billion yuan. It is expected that the annual net inflow of overseas funds (QFII/RQFII plus northbound funds) into A-shares in 2023 may be in the range of 100 billion yuan -300 billion yuan. It is expected that the annual amount of A-share buybacks and industrial capital increase in 2023 is expected to reach 200 billion yuan -300 billion yuan. It is expected that the incremental contribution of private equity funds to the market may be in the range of 300 billion yuan-500 billion yuan.
05
Three major lines of configuration
And for the specific configuration of varieties, some institutions believe that it can be carried out along three major lines.
CITIC Securities said that the 2023 A-share market can be divided into two stages, the first stage is driven by the policy, and has been on the way, the configuration is recommended to focus on the precise prevention and control, the real estate industry chain and the global liquidity inflection point of the three main lines; the second stage of the market is driven by the performance of the style of the style of more growth, the configuration of the recommendation to focus on the "four major safety ", specifically including: first, energy resources security focus on traditional energy (coal / oil and gas) supply, new energy demand expansion, supply and demand of key mineral resources (lithium, rare earths); second, science and technology security focus on the semiconductor industry chain, Xinchuang (computer hardware and software), digital infrastructure (carriers, ITC equipment, etc.); third, the national defense safety around aerospace equipment and Third, the national defense security around aerospace equipment and engines, components of the independent and controllable demand layout; Fourth, food security focus on seed sources, to seize the opportunity of industrialization of biological breeding. In addition to the "four major security", it is also recommended to pay attention to the global share of China's advantageous manufacturing industry (smart car, chemical industry).
Haitong Securities believes that the high boom growth is the main line next year, such as the digital economy, low-carbon economy; in addition, the consumer has restorative opportunities. Specifically, the digital economy application scenarios gradually landing, is expected to support the hardware, software, service providers in the field of high-growth; low-carbon economy focus on wind power, energy storage and new energy vehicle intelligence; consumer fundamentals will improve, underestimation of under-allocated consumer cost-effective highlights, pay attention to the pharmaceuticals and mass consumption.
Industry Securities said, along the "strong and strong" and "bottom reversal" two main lines of layout. The strongest include military, energy storage, photovoltaic and wind power, semiconductors and so on. The bottom of the reversal including Xinchuang, medicine.
Ping An Securities said that the medium-term recommendations layout of the economic cycle and policy-driven dilemma reversal plate: first, benefited from the optimization of industrial policy upward emerging industry sectors, such as medicine and biology, games, semiconductors, Xinchuang, high-end manufacturing, etc.; second, with profitability elasticity of the consumer plate, such as food and beverage, household appliances, social services, automobiles, etc.; third, directly benefited from the stabilization of the economy Expected real estate industry chain, such as part of the real estate and financial enterprises, building materials, upstream resources and other industries are expected to continue to benefit.