Warren Buffett said: the best investment is to develop yourself! What others trade with you is your ability (cognitive) you have the ability (cognitive) that others can not take away! Find what you really want to do, and then engaged in a lifetime.
How many ways to ambush the demon bond arbitrage, I still can't figure out, and also still can't figure out how the demon bond is generated, when it will come, will appear in which industry, will appear in which branch of the bond, are not clear. View some of the information on convertible bonds, especially new bonds, what is a meat bond, what is the focus of the bond, are not clear.
Convertible bonds to move bricks, learning the road is still long, there are many new cognitive, waiting for their own to learn, to practice.
First, after participating in the lessons of bond arbitrage, found that the problems and shortcomings
1. Often find that there are high prices, and now realize that it is into a demon and come. But oddly enough, do not dare to think of these high prices of debt, and do not dare to ambush. Some people say, expected to participate in the already high demon debt speculation, rather than ambush the next demon debt. But I won't ambush yet.
2. How to recognize the demon debt, no head, no clues.
3. When you cast a wide net, you don't know the depth of the risk, and you can't catch the demon, and you always sell the fly, or miss it.
The typical characteristics of the demon bond are high price, high turnover rate, high premium rate, completely detached from the fundamentals, almost no relationship with the rise and fall of the main stock.
Screening is the most critical, screening conditions is the basis of the means, the conditions of choice seems to be divided into static, dynamic good.
Second, the logic of the demon debt speculation
This is an emerging speculation market, in 2020 began to gradually be speculated in the main body of the main force to explore. The main logic, there are three advantages: First, compared to the demon stock, the total size of the convertible bonds is lower, for the main force, tens of millions of dollars to manipulate, more than the previous demon stock speculation is easier, a few million ignition pulling up can be triggered by the market mood, very suitable for the operation; Second, the T + 0 trading mechanism is more conducive to the operation. Shanghai and Shenzhen convertible bonds are implemented T + 0 trading, intraday trading can be repeated, the turnover rate can be more than 100%. Third, the single-day increase is not limited, but set the suspension mechanism, up to 20% will be suspended for 30 minutes to continue trading, and if it rises to 30% will be suspended to 14:57 minutes and then trading, and ultimately the day's rate of increase is not set a ceiling.
The advantage of the demon bond is better than the demon stock, is the best speculation subject of the current market . At present, it seems that once the speculation is up, with the main stock is detached, speculation on the demon stock may be subject to the company's negative news, fundamentals, financial reports and other adverse effects and lead to market sentiment panic, the main force can not get out of their own, convertible bonds will not, and therefore received many institutions, the main force, the favor of the large investors. However, it has been proved that convertible bonds have become the best subject of market operations, constant small-scale new bond listing also continued to supplement, for the main institutions to provide a variety of speculation opportunities. Speculation continues, as long as you choose a good time to enter. Not only the old demon debt so, the new debt is the same. 2020 since March, convertible demon debt is the long-term main line of speculation market, with continuity, can be a long-term study, can focus on short-term demon debt trading.
Compared to the stock, speculation demon bond gains, as long as the mastery of skills and methods, strict implementation of their own strategies, regardless of the general market conditions, through the bulls and bears, you can do a stable annualized return of more than 40%, or even doubled.
In summary, to find the demon bond, get the purpose of moving bricks, one should customize their own trading rules, summarize their trading experience, the formation of their own trading system, strict implementation, in order to open up their own way in the convertible demon bond market. Secondly, we should start from the price level, turnover rate, premium rate, fundamentals, a clear set of conditions for their own selection. Looking for the demon bond method is a lot, to find yourself.
Third, convertible bond arbitrage is generally divided into two categories, one is the conventional convertible bond arbitrage, a class of demon bond arbitrage.
(a) Conventional convertible bond arbitrage . The same day pulse arbitrage and stop premium arbitrage.
1. Same day pulse arbitrage. (1) The use of convertible bonds T + 0 trading mechanism, the day high can be sold. Judgement of the positive stock will be rushed back down, otherwise it should not use the pulse arbitrage, but may use the stop premium arbitrage. (2) the day found that a plate leader stopped, but the leader did not convertible bonds or convertible bonds have also been stopped can not buy, then you can consider the same concept of followers of the convertible arbitrage.
2. Stop premium arbitrage. The core logic lies in the use of convertible bonds do not have up and down limits of the trading mechanism, convertible bonds under normal circumstances follow the fluctuations of the stock, in the stock stops and the market is expected to follow a large increase in the premise, buy convertible bonds for premium arbitrage.
And the day pulse arbitrage is different, stopping premium arbitrage can not buy the convertible bonds of the followers of the stock, because of its positive stock continuity is very weak, but there is a situation can be bought, that is, the concept of the leading stocks do not have a convertible bond, and one of the convertible bonds and follow the fluctuations of the leading stocks, this situation can be bought.
3. Discovering convertible bonds is divided into two methods: forward discovery and reverse discovery. Positive discovery is that you are very familiar with the stock and its convertible bonds, so that when the stock is unusual, if the stock is not trading opportunities or worry about intraday decline, you naturally pay attention to the convertible bonds. Forward discovery of the basic information ability of investors require more, need to understand the stock and need to understand the convertible bonds. Reverse discovery is found in the positive stock can not be bought or worried about the high back down and alternative investment, mainly for whether the mandatory redemption, there is a mandatory redemption of convertible bonds must click to see the specific date of the strong redemption, if very close, try to avoid, and do not overnight.
4. Choose out a good subject. Short-term convertible arbitrage subject preferred should be strong convertible bonds. This strong convertible bond's positive stock will generally also be a strong stock, when there is a strong convertible bond to choose, do not choose to follow the trend of the convertible bond. 1) the positive stock is strong enough, 2) the convertible bond and the positive stock linkage is strong, 3) the convertible bond's volume of amplification, 4) the convertible bond's capital initiative is strong, 5) the convertible bond's history of volatility is strong. Whether to buy convertible bonds arbitrage, we have to be based on the trend of the positive stock judgment analysis method to prejudge.
5. Conventional convertible arbitrage buy sell node selection. Buy node selection, convertible bonds buy and sell generally use the right side of the transaction, the right side of the transaction refers to a clear reversal signal occurs only after the next transaction, in general, the convertible bond trend and stock similar to the contrast to look at the stock trend and convertible bond trend easier to determine. In order to avoid the risk, in the process of the uptrend of the behavior rate is very big, try not to buy, that is to say, the yellow line (time division average) is far behind the time division line, do not easily buy. Sell node selection, it is best to combine the trend of the best stock, if the stock is strong seal stop, and the stock is expected to rise a lot, be patient to hold the bond, to avoid selling fly, if the stock is up, but the bond is slow to turn strong, and more and more weak (for example, the buy order is getting smaller and smaller, when the time of the time of the divergence) should pay attention to whether the market is expected to weaken the trend of the stock.
(ii) demon debt arbitrage. When the market appears to be extremely persistent atrophy, positive stock market continues to not make money or even money-losing effect is very common, the market has a group of active funds it is easier to go to do the bond, one is not too easy to turn the bond is not too easy to be regulated on the eye, the other is the way to turn the bond T + 0, if the situation is not good enough to get out quickly.
The demon bond, is because the rise is completely nonsensical rise, premium can quickly exceed 100% or even higher, there is no valuation and logical support, the market is purely by the money-making effect of the emotional pile, typically characterized by rapid amplification of turnover, continued to create a market unimaginable rise.
The choice of demon bonds. If the general market environment is not good, the first day of the nonsensical or far beyond the fundamentals of the rise, and the positive shares still have upward momentum, in the second day is still strong, in fact, you can intervene, you are difficult to intervene on the first day, generally the second day of the intervention behind the back of the still have a good return. The time to sell is very good to grasp, is when the convertible bonds in the short term nonsensical increase of more than 100%, we must begin to pay attention to, there is also a principle of speculation after the third day (not including the third day, generally if the rate of increase is not surprisingly high, the third day can be speculated), the fourth day of the probability of mood or ushered in the regulation, this time to be careful.
The time to sell. When the convertible bonds short-term nonsensical increase of more than 100%, we must start to pay attention to, there is a principle is the speculation of the third day after (not including the third day, generally if the increase is not surprisingly high, the third day can also be speculation), the fourth day probability of mood or ushered in the supervision, this time to be careful.
The demon bond is characterized by the demon, constantly refreshing the cognition of investors, but when you from doubt to believe the process, but also from the money-making effect to the money-losing effect of the transformation process.
Risk control measures. 1, position management, put into the convertible bond funds must be controlled, can not occupy most of the position. 2, always remember that you buy the starting point of the convertible bond, the profit and loss, can not be too greedy to lead to the set, and can not be turned into a long position. 3, no certainty signal easily do not make a move, the bad buy position directly affect the mentality. 4, if the transaction does not go well. Quick stop loss and wait and see, do not trade frequently. Bad mentality will only make you lose more.
Fourth, screening demon debt.
The students transferred to the teacher's knowledge, the use of the rate of change in the situation, the choice of four bonds, to observe whether the demon again.
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