29 A shares opened sharply higher, as of the close, the SSE index rose 2.31%, the GEM index rose 1.78%, turnover of 968.79 billion yuan, a net inflow of funds from the north 9.806 billion yuan.
Industry level, real estate, consumer services, non-banking financial sectors rose and fell, respectively, 7.55%, 5.65% and 4.85%. Power and utilities, defense industry, power equipment and new energy sectors rose and fell behind, respectively -0.40%, 0.02% and 0.35%.
It is worth noting that, by the recent good policy frequency and "the third arrow" officially landed, the real estate sector continued to strong upward trend. As of the close of business, the Shenwan primary industry real estate index rose 7.96%, ranking No. 1 in the list of gainers, the index rose as much as 14.41% in the last 5 days.
So, exactly this wave of big rise in the future can be sustained? Is the market to the turning point? Near the end of the year, how should investors operate? China Fund News reporter first interviewed Huaxia, Boshi, Harvest, China Europe, Hua An, Guotai, Yongweng, Westfield, Huafu, Vanguard, Industrial, Deppon, Peng Yang, Nordic, CITIC Prudential and other 15 fund companies.
Many fund companies believe that the market has risen substantially mainly driven by a variety of factors, the equity market, the medium- and long-term configuration value is gradually emerging, the follow-up can pay attention to real estate, finance, consumption, represented by the valuation of the broader style repair.
Multi-factors boost today's surge
For today's surge, CEF said, the SFC announced on the evening of the 28th to adjust and optimize the five measures in the equity financing of housing-related enterprises, and with immediate effect, the move is aimed at improving the head of the high-quality real estate enterprises balance sheet, increase the equity replenishment efforts to promote the real estate market to revitalize the inventory, to prevent risks, and to transform the development. Prevent risk, transformation and development. 7 years after the real estate enterprise refinancing restart, the signal significance is significant, superimposed on the central bank announced last Friday's quota reduction measures, showing a high degree of attention to the development of the economy. In the market on the expectation of good policy, to consumption, finance, represented by some of the concept plate recent performance is also relatively strong, but also reflects the expectations of investors for the future economic improvement.
Bosch Fund said that today's A-share collective upward, or due to the following reasons: First, yesterday evening, the Securities and Futures Commission announced that the equity financing of housing-related enterprises to adjust and optimize the five measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, the market sentiment has been boosted; second, since this year, the A-shares shocked downward, and the overall valuation of the current position in a relatively low position, the cost-effective and relatively high, has certain attractiveness. It has a certain degree of attraction.
Huaan Fund said, the market has risen sharply, mainly driven by two factors, the medium- and long-term configuration value of the equity market is gradually emerging. First, to support the steady and healthy development of the real estate market policy to promote, the relevant industry and economic expectations stabilized. Last night, the Securities and Futures Commission decided to adjust and optimize five measures in equity financing. The stable and healthy development of the real estate industry is conducive to the real estate industry chain related industries cash flow stability, economic stabilization is expected to pick up. Second, the construction of a modern capital market with Chinese characteristics and the exploration of the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics. At present, the market value of state-owned listed companies and listed state-owned financial enterprises accounts for nearly half, but the valuation of some state-owned enterprises is at a historically low level. Recently, Chairman Yi Huiman proposed at the annual meeting of the 2022 Financial Street Forum to "explore the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics", which will help promote the market to rationalize the logic of valuation of different types of listed companies, and promote the market to better play the function of resource allocation.
Huaxia Fund said that this year, the risk of suppressing the market, the recent positive inflection points and changes: first of all, the probability of stabilizing the bottom of the real estate market next year, the introduction of the 16 articles of finance shows that the policy to further support the real estate market to resolve the risks, the center of gravity has been shifted from the "protection of the delivery of the building" to the "protection of the main body", and then to the "protection of the main body". The center of gravity has shifted from "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" to "guaranteeing the main body", and considering that this round of real estate downturn time and amplitude is more than the past, the marginal relaxation of the policy will obviously help the bottom of the real estate market to stabilize; second, the epidemic prevention and control has been further optimized and improved, and it is expected that after sufficient brewing and continuous exploration, the impact on the life and production will be even smaller.
Young Win Fund said, real estate enterprises after a six-year gap in equity financing reopened, the signal is significant, marking the real estate enterprise financing environment to further improve, is expected to improve the balance sheet through equity financing, ease the liquidity pressure, but also for the integration of intra-industry and so on provides the possibility. In addition, according to CCTV network reports, in recent days around the world to adhere to the ninth version of the prevention and control program and the twenty measures do not waver, do not go out of the way, based on early, based on fast, scientific and accurate to carry out out the epidemic disposal work, to promote the optimization of the implementation of measures in detail. Driven by the above factors, today's AH stock risk appetite rebounded sharply, stock indexes rose collectively, real estate chain-related plates, large financial, consumer services, food and beverage, and many other plates have risen sharply.
Vanguard Fund said that the industry, the real estate sector soared nearly 8%. On the news, last night, the Securities and Futures Commission after 6 years again to restore the real estate mergers and acquisitions reorganization and ancillary financing, and to restore the real estate enterprises refinancing, this equity financing as the "third arrow", following the "second arrow" debt financing was introduced in less than 3 weeks, indicating that the real estate relaxation of the current policy and strong implementation. The full determination of the policy and strong execution, driven by favorable policies, today's real estate, non-banking financial, banking, represented by the pan-real estate chain plate rose sharply.
GuoTai fund said, in just 20 days, the policy end of the "three arrows", has a strong signal significance, significantly boost the confidence of all parties. Policies from multiple perspectives, multiple ways to provide financial support to real estate enterprises, on the one hand, to support the stock of loans, bonds reasonable rollover, effectively avoiding the spread of debt risk of real estate enterprises. On the one hand, the real estate enterprises to raise funds for "guarantee delivery of buildings, livelihood", the construction of state central enterprises housing construction project risk exposure is expected to decline, is expected to drive the balance sheet continued to improve. On the other hand, the construction business to meet the virtuous cycle, refinancing can be used for affordable housing, shantytown renovation, old city renovation, demolition and resettlement of housing construction, supplementary liquidity, repayment of debt, help construction of the state central enterprises to better serve the development of China's real economy, and to better serve the stabilization of the macro-economic broader.
Follow-up repair market is expected to continue
A shares in the medium and long term to the good trend remains unchanged
For the aftermath of the market, the CEF said the downside risk of the economy is being accompanied by intensive stimulus to the policy and gradually tended to ease the recent real estate support initiatives are expected to reduce the real estate enterprises, Construction companies, related upstream and downstream enterprises, as well as loan buyers default risk, as the real estate chain in the national economy still occupies a large proportion of the recovery of the enterprise has a strong driving effect; the market is expected to maintain the short-term oscillation, taking into account the generally higher volatility at the end of the market adjustment, you can pay close attention to the economic inflection point, as well as the inflection point validation of the market resilience.
Bosch Fund said, the recent real estate favorable policies continue to release, "three arrows" landed one after another, the subsequent performance needs to continue to observe. In the case of domestic epidemics scattered more than one, the overall consumer willingness of residents is not high, the repair of consumption is still suppressed; U.S. inflation in October is expected to fall, the Fed is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, the tightening of overseas liquidity on the A-share suppression or will be eased. Subsequent A-share trend will be more influenced by domestic factors, in the overall weak economic recovery, monetary policy and liquidity are more friendly, A-share medium and long term trend is unchanged, but on the way is inevitably more ups and downs, in the context of high-quality development as an important goal, benefiting from economic transformation and upgrading of the industry sector still has a good investment value, such as high-end manufacturing, new energy, science and technology, etc., can be appropriate attention.
Huaxia Fund said that despite the small rebound, but the market as a whole is still in the valuation of the low level, the past 10 years CSI 300 and GEM index only 10% of the time lower than the current market valuation, in the internal and external conditions warming up, the medium and long term restoration of the space is still obvious. In particular, there may be more improvements in the future in terms of fundamentals: optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, improvement in real estate sales data, economic data may bottom out and marginal easing of overseas risks. Based on next year's economic growth bottoming out, high-quality development and other factors, we are relatively optimistic about next year's market, that growth and value have opportunities, most of the industry is more of a difference between the successive rise and the magnitude. Continue to recommend active layout, wait for changes.
Young Win Fund said that the recent stock market internal and external pricing logic, including overseas liquidity, real estate financing and other aspects of the positive signals, epidemic prevention and control measures have also been further optimized, the AH market sentiment has significantly warmed up, taking into account that all of the above factors are persistent, the restoration of the market is expected to continue. Objective point of view the current state of real estate terminal sales, the overall equity financing fever compared to the previous 15-16 years when the real estate equity small peak there is still a certain distance, but I believe that the improvement of the financing environment will gradually produce the effect, and taking into account the significance of this equity financing restart signals, the market is expected to or will be the first. And the broader dimension, the real estate financing environment repair helps to boost the market's expectations of the overall domestic fundamentals, the overall equity assets are expected to constitute a positive. Superimposed on the A-share and Hong Kong stock valuation in the history of low points, the subsequent repair market is expected to continue, in addition to the direct benefit of the real estate sector, pharmaceuticals, consumer, electronics and other high-quality assets in a number of areas may appear investment opportunities.
Industry fund said, in the continuous policy changes, we judge that the bottom of the A-share market has been gradually consolidated, suggesting that investors can be more positive about the future performance of the market. The current policy as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike and other important early suppression factors have seen an inflection point of change, to be followed by the gradual introduction of economic stabilization measures, the domestic economic momentum is expected to further restore, the market may usher in the structural uptrend of the market.
Hua Fu fund said, for the view of the market, still medium-term bullish. This year can be said to be a year of great disturbance of macroeconomic factors, next year to see, this year's core influencing factors: real estate drag, the impact of the epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the global austerity will be next year, there is a significant marginal improvement, although the domestic real estate and epidemic prevention issues are each have their own complexity and difficulty in dealing with the conduction of the possible existence of time lag and repetitive, but the marginal changes in the policy to make clear the direction of the future, and the same time, last weekend's downward revision in the After the announcement of the regular session of the State Council as scheduled, easing the recent market due to marginal tightening of the capital surface superimposed on the bond market plunge caused by the redemption of the negative feedback situation on the central bank to tighten liquidity concerns, the significance of the signal is clear, combined with the position of the market, we believe that the equity assets have a strong allocation of cost-effective short-term look at the real estate chain and the recovery of the epidemic or is still the market's core concern for the direction of the market, and the medium to long term to look at the bottoming out in the economy rebound after the market It is expected to return to the main line of growth, pay attention to the development of security, industrial upgrading and state-owned enterprise reform and other directions.
Vanguard Fund said that since mid-November, the domestic epidemic repeated superimposed on the weakening of foreign demand to a certain extent suppressed the market sentiment, the rebound fluctuations. However, in the short term, in the anti-epidemic optimization continues to land, real estate financing relaxation under the code, pan-property chain and the two main lines of recovery after the epidemic mood repair is expected to continue, driving the overall repair of the market. In the medium term, in the stabilization of growth continued to force, domestic demand is expected to gradually rebound, the impact of overseas bearish factors is expected to slow down, the level of global inflation is expected to fall under the background of the domestic economic fundamentals are expected to be further repaired, the A-share is also expected to valuation and profitability of the *** vibration of the repair to regain the upward trend.
Countrywide Fund said that the current fiscal and monetary policies are active, the policy puzzle is becoming more and more complete, and the support is expected to continue. Last week's "valuation system of Chinese characteristics" triggered by the market thinking superimposed on the disposal of real estate risks, stable growth code **** vibration, stimulating the market to produce rapid industry rotation. In the medium term, the bottom of the market level is approaching, the future market pivot will be more certain. But for investment, the short-term too fast expectations correction may bring increased market volatility. Investors can continue to pay attention to the policy is expected to repair the real estate industry chain of building materials, financial sectors, etc., but also to be vigilant about the policy is not as expected as well as epidemics brought about by the risk of market adjustment.
Attention to real estate, financial, consumer as a representative of of the large-cap style valuation repair
For bullish boards, Hua An Fund believes that the medium- and long-term configuration of the equity market value is gradually emerging, you can focus on the direction of stable growth, post-epidemic, big security. Overall, despite the various internal and external challenges, China's medium- and long-term economic development potential and space is still large, real estate support policies and anti-epidemic optimization is expected to further promote the expected stabilization and rebound, the global liquidity environment is expected to improve, the current level of equity risk premium is located in the historical average of one standard deviation or so, the market medium- and long-term configuration value is gradually emerging.
Specifically, stable growth, consumption, travel and other industries have experienced sustained losses, industry fundamentals are at a historically low level, the industry pattern is gradually improving. In addition, pharmaceuticals and medical, computer software, etc. is expected to benefit from China's level of autonomy and controllability, while grid investment, wind and light storage and other tracks need to be selected alpha companies, focusing on profitability certainty. I hope that investors can adhere to the concept of long-term investment, value investment, have confidence, maintain patience.
CEF said the policy adjustment point is more difficult to judge, in the process, in addition to the traditional high dividend low valuation and other risk aversion varieties, but also pay attention to power and other performance is expected to continue to improve the industry. In addition, in the short-term rebound process, liquidity to make up for the most rapid industry, there is a higher short-term trading elasticity and stock price defensiveness, which is particularly concerned about the proportion of institutional configuration of higher power equipment, pharmaceuticals, electronics and food and beverage industries. In the medium and long term, next year, under the expectation of economic stabilization, the more sensitive to the economic performance of optional consumer areas are also expected to see marginal improvement in performance growth.
Carlson Financial Selection fund manager Li Xin said that the opportunity of the real estate sector can be divided into three stages: the current stage is the private sector real estate from dead to alive reversal, the previous valuation was killed to 0.2 ~ 0.5 times PB of the private sector real estate valuation is expected to be raised to 0.8 ~ 1 times PB,. As this year belongs to the valuation of the performance of the double kill, once the sales recovery, the plate has a double hit, we are optimistic about this stage there is still 40~50% of the space. As a large number of private enterprises in the past two years default, the future probability will disappear in the list of sales, then their market share will be occupied by the remaining state-centralized enterprises and this wave of survival of the operation of the private enterprises, such enterprises have the opportunity to increase the market share, the performance of the valuation of the same can be a double rise.
Huaxia fund said, plate, suggesting high boom + distress reversal layout. From now on, stable growth and recovery expectations are expected to bring a wave of real estate, financial, consumer, represented by the broader style of valuation repair, real estate leaders and real estate chain consumption is more resilient; but in the coming year, more often than not, the market will be more focused on energy, independent security, represented by the high boom growth of the industry.
Nordic fund Zhu Mingrui said, the current pharmaceutical plate down space is relatively limited, all aspects of the negative factors of the perturbation is also basically in the valuation of the feedback, as a long slope of thick snow industry, from the medium and long term dimension, the current may be the configuration of the pharmaceutical plate of a more appropriate point in time. Opportunities, I think there are the following opportunities: First, the marginal relaxation of health insurance-related policies; second, the head of the company to realize the sea and rapid volume; third, the epidemic is further control.
Western Leader Fund said, looking to the market, stabilizing the macroeconomic broad policy gradually realized, strengthening the market's expectations for economic growth. Policies include two directions: one is to continue to launch policies to support the gradual restoration of real estate financing function, on the other hand, the epidemic joint prevention and control prevention and control measures continue to be implemented in detail. The optimization of the relevant policies will help stabilize the macroeconomic market and strengthen the market's expectations for economic growth.
Economic growth is expected to gradually repair, superimposed on the previous valuation adjustment is more adequate, the current market risk-return ratio is higher overall, it is recommended to pay attention to the main line of investment in stable growth in the financial real estate and real estate chain, infrastructure, and low inventory of some of the cyclical plate; growth plate in the choice of new energy, large technology and consumer areas of excellence in the field of the subject.
CITIC Prudential Fund said, looking ahead, can look for investment opportunities in the medium and long term trend: 1) the structure is to coordinate the development and security, the realization of Chinese-style modernization of the industrial structure optimization and upgrading of electric power equipment, national defense industry, electronics, computers, as well as related special equipment, materials, combined with the direction of the financial support to look for opportunities; 2) the total amount of the improvement of global liquidity and the economic recovery Expectations of *** revitalization, attention to mechanical equipment, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics and other directions, combined with the current pricing and implied upside space to find opportunities.
Debonair Fund said, looking forward, the capital side of the overseas tightening is expected to ease, domestic liquidity continues to ease, fundamentals on the supply side of the real estate has ushered in a strong policy to support the early market concerns about the real estate extreme risk of rapid convergence of the upstream and downstream real estate chain capital risk mitigation, we are optimistic about benefiting from the real estate chain restoration, especially the completion of the end of the boom rebounded, the previous valuation of the more discounted Plates, such as construction and building materials, household appliances, light industry and other industries. Secondly, the real estate as the asset side of the previous valuation discount more boards, such as banks and insurance. Medium-term dimension is also optimistic about the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors. The future as the epidemic disturbances gradually ease, consumption is expected to further relaxation, while the domestic pharmaceutical sector favorable policy frequently, the fund configuration ratio is at a low level, also has a good strategic opportunity.
Peng Yang Fund said, China's long-term mechanism for real estate on the one hand, according to the city policy to support rigid and improved housing demand, on the other hand, to maintain real estate financing reasonable and moderate. And in the long run, after the real estate stabilization, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is still the priority direction of financial resource allocation, which also means that next year's stock market opportunities are diversified. In the current policy environment, the incremental demand of the real estate industry will be more biased in the middle and lower reaches of the construction and completion of the link, that is, building materials, renovation, home appliances and other areas, while the upstream land, new construction is expected to be limited to promote the role.