Text/Autobots Scroll
Since July 23, 2020, China has opened the restrictions on the ratio of foreign shares in the field of commercial vehicle manufacturing.
More than two years ago, the negative list of foreign investment issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in April, 2065438+2008 clearly stated: "The automobile industry will be opened in the transitional period, and the restrictions on the ratio of foreign shares in special purpose vehicles and new energy vehicles will be lifted in 2065438+2008; In 2020, the restrictions on the ratio of foreign shares in commercial vehicles will be abolished; In 2022, the restriction on the ratio of foreign shares in passenger cars will be abolished, and at the same time, the restriction on no more than two joint ventures will be abolished. Through the five-year transition period, the automobile industry will completely lift the restrictions. "
For foreign investors, is this an opportunity of the times? Will the commercial vehicle market in China change again?
In 20 19, China sold 25.75 million vehicles, accounting for 28.5% of the total global sales of 90.32 million vehicles. Among them, the sales volume of medium and heavy trucks in commercial vehicles is 1 17000, accounting for 40% of the total sales volume of 3.2 million vehicles in the world.
In 20 19, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in China reached a record high. With the global COVID-19 epidemic, the proportion of China in the world will further increase in 2020. In the past five years, the global share of commercial vehicle sales in China has increased from 36% in 20 14 to 40% in 20 19. "Infrastructure fanatics" are by no means worthy of the name.
Behind the number of trucks is freight turnover, and the driving factor of freight turnover depends on the development of primary and secondary industries. According to the purpose, heavy trucks are divided into logistics trucks and engineering trucks. Logistics trucks serve the transportation of bulk goods and consumer goods, and the demand is more rigid. With the development of the express delivery industry, this piece is growing steadily, and the fluctuation of sales is relatively small; Engineering vehicles mainly serve all kinds of infrastructure, and the sales volume fluctuates greatly. In 2020, in order to hedge the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, local governments successively launched the "Great Leap Forward" with a total investment of 50 trillion yuan, which greatly promoted the demand for engineering vehicles.
As for trucks, the unit transportation cost of medium-sized trucks is higher than that of heavy trucks. Since 2000, the proportion of medium-sized trucks and heavy trucks in the world has increased from 50%:50% to 35%:65% in 20 19. In China, this proportion differentiation is even more exaggerated. In 20 19, the sales volume of the top five domestic heavy trucks (faw liberation, Dongfeng Motor, China Heavy Duty Truck, Shaanxi Automobile Group and Beiqi Futian) was 97,0071vehicle; In the same period, the top five trucks (Beiqi Futian, Universiade Automobile, Dongfeng Motor, Qingling Automobile and Shandong Tangjun Ouling) sold 965,438+0,477 vehicles, of which less than 65,438+00% were medium-sized trucks and more than 90% were heavy trucks.
Light trucks and micro-trucks mainly serve the "last mile" after entering the city.
As we all know, commercial vehicles are strong cycle industries. This strong cycle is mainly determined by the economic development of the host country and the elimination cycle of local commercial vehicles. So although there is a strong periodicity, every country is different, and everyone has their own cycle.
Market differences in China, Europe, the United States and India.
The three major commercial vehicle markets next to China are: in 20 18, the sales volume of medium and heavy trucks in the United States was 310.8 million; 20 19 European medium and heavy trucks sold nearly 400,000 vehicles; India sold 280,000 medium and heavy trucks in 20 19, but their sales in 20 18 were 400,000, down by 30%.
Tractors are the main heavy trucks in the American market, and the renewal period is about 10 years. From 20 16 to 20 18, the sales of medium and heavy trucks in the United States rose for three consecutive years, reaching the peak of 3180,000 vehicles in 20 18, and currently it is 2.6 million vehicles.
The competition pattern in the United States is highly concentrated. The market share of the four major heavy truck companies is close to 100%. These four companies are Daimler, Paccar, Volvo and Navistar, and their sales volume is 20 1 1. 1.93 million. The market share of the top five truck companies in China is over 90%, namely Daimler, Navistar, Ford, Kappa and Hino Automobile.
In 20 19, the sales volume of medium and heavy trucks in Europe was nearly 400,000. The top three are Germany, France and Britain, which account for 55% of the total sales in Europe. Among them, the sales volume of German medium and heavy truck commercial vehicles is 98,000, which is the first echelon alone; The sales of Britain and France in the same period were 56,000 and 55,000 respectively, which was the second echelon; In addition, countries with more than 20,000 vehicles include Poland, Spain and Italy, which can be regarded as the third echelon.
There are many European countries and the market structure is more dispersed, but the total market share of the top seven enterprises is as high as 93%, of which Daimler accounts for nearly 1/4, ranking first and Germany second. The regional differences in Europe are mainly reflected in western Europe and eastern Europe. In 20 17, Daimler's market share in western Europe was 22%, while its market share in eastern Europe was only 13%, lagging behind two Russian enterprises, camas and Gass. Don't underestimate these two Russian companies, which account for nearly half of the total output of medium and heavy trucks in Eastern Europe. The top ten heavy truck sales companies in the EU are Daimler, Mann, Volvo, Scania, Iveco, Duff, Renault, Fiat, Mitsubishi and Volkswagen.
In 20 18 and 20 19, the sales of heavy trucks in India were 400,000 and 280,000 respectively. In 20 19, the sales volume of heavy trucks decreased by 30%. In 20 18, the market share of the four major Indian car companies was 94%. As the largest automobile group in India, Tata has obvious advantages in the field of commercial vehicles, with a market share of 48%, but less than 56% in 20 14. Two other Indian companies, Ashok? Leyland) and VECV have a market share of 28% and 15% respectively, and their market share has been rising continuously in recent years.
It can be seen that China is the sum of the second, third and fourth places (Europe, America and India) in the world's top four commercial vehicle markets, and China has obvious advantages in both market capacity and increment. Among them, heavy trucks in China account for a larger proportion, accounting for more than 60% of global sales.
It is not difficult to find that China, Europe, the United States and India all have obvious regional characteristics, which means that the regional monopoly of the medium and heavy truck market is very obvious, and all markets are firmly controlled by local independent brands. The Indian market is full of Indian brands, while the Eastern European market is dominated by Russian brands, which is eroding Daimler's market.
Different from the passenger car market, the regional oligarchy in the commercial vehicle market is easier to form. The main reason is that the use environment of different transportation markets is quite different, such as policy standards and geographical environment, and the highway transportation norms also have limitations, such as geographical restrictions and national boundaries.
In the heavy truck market in China, faw liberation, Dongfeng Motor, China Heavy Duty Truck, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Foton Motor have occupied the top five for a long time, and the total market share of these five enterprises has remained above 80%. It is unrealistic to say whether the top players in China's commercial vehicle market will get nearly 100% share like that in North America. After all, China's market is much larger than that of the United States, and its geographical situation is more diverse and complicated. But what is certain is that the oligopoly pattern of China heavy truck market has basically taken shape, and they are all China brands.
Some insiders believe that in the domestic commercial vehicle field, independent brands account for more than 95% of the market share, and the proportion of foreign investment is extremely low, mainly concentrated in light buses and light trucks. Therefore, the policy of liberalizing the foreign share ratio should have little impact on the competitive pattern of domestic commercial vehicles.
Behind the profit gap
Although there is such a natural barrier as region, it does not mean that all commercial vehicle enterprises in China are bigger and stronger. Most directly, compared with Chinese and American commercial vehicle listed companies, we will find that the market value gap is very large.
As of the close of July 23rd, 2020, Beijing time, the market value of A-share faw liberation was 68 billion yuan, and the selling ratio was1.10; China National Heavy Duty Truck A shares have a market value of 26.2 billion yuan and a marketing rate of 3.8 1. The main profit of Weichai Power comes from commercial vehicle engines. Its A-share market value is 654.38+03.36 billion RMB, and the sales rate is 2.82.
In the same period, the market value of Paca listed on NASDAQ was US$ 29.76 billion (about RMB 208.3 billion), and the marketing ratio was 1.2 1. Traton, a commercial vehicle company owned by Volkswagen listed in Germany? SE(8TRA) has a market value of 9 1 billion euros (about 73.7 billion yuan); The world's largest engine manufacturer, Cummins (CMI) listed on NYSE has a market value of 28.02 billion yuan (about 1.96 1 billion yuan) and a sales ratio of 1.25.
It is not difficult to see that the market value of American commercial vehicle enterprises is obviously higher than that of China commercial vehicle enterprises. The most direct factor is that the gross profit margin and net profit margin of American car companies are higher, and the gap between China companies is obvious. For example, Kappa's gross profit margin and net interest rate have remained at around 20% and 7% in recent years. In 20 19, Kappa sold 0.98 million trucks/Kloc-0, which was in the same range as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Shaanxi Automobile Group, and was not as good as faw liberation (selling 275,000 heavy trucks) and Dongfeng Motor (selling 24/Kloc-0.00 million heavy trucks), but the market value of Kappa was 208.3 billion yuan, much higher than that of faw liberation.
The gap is that the bicycle income of heavy trucks in China is less than half of that of overseas car companies. China's heavy-duty bicycle income is less than 300,000, while the income of American and European brand bicycles is probably over 600,000, and even over 700,000 in German.
The average bicycle price directly affects the company's profit rate. In the first quarter of 2020, China National Heavy Duty Truck disclosed that its gross profit margin was 1 1.59% and its net interest rate was 4.06%. Faw liberation's gross profit margin 10.80% and net interest rate 0.53%. Kappa's gross profit margin and net profit margin are 20% and 7% respectively.
From this, we can draw a simple conclusion: China commercial vehicle consumers, especially heavy truck consumers, are more sensitive to prices. Small profits but quick turnover and continuous efforts in cost are the only magic weapon for the competition in China commercial vehicle market. Therefore, even if regional differences are not mentioned, such a competitive environment is not their strength for foreign brands. For example, the market share of imported commercial vehicles in China is less than 2% for a long time, indicating that high-end commercial vehicles are no longer feasible in China.
From the perspective of joint venture, commercial vehicles and passenger cars are also very different. In the past ten years, there have been many domestic commercial vehicle joint venture failures, such as Shandong Wohua, Changzhou Iveco, Shen Fei Hino and Yangzhou Yaxing.
Europe and America have always had a profound truck culture, and their truck drivers have higher requirements for comfort and prefer high-end luxury trucks. Drivers in China are more realistic. Their most important goal is to support their families and make money. Bicycle prices of heavy trucks in China have been rising in recent years, but for users, value is the key. In such a competitive market, European and American high-end truck brands are difficult to adapt in the short term.
Of course there are exceptions. Sichuan Hyundai has realized 100% Korean sole proprietorship. Sichuan Hyundai Commercial Vehicle has an annual sales volume of more than 30,000 vehicles, which is still not in the ranking. Sichuan Hyundai may write about hydrogen fuel cells, which is not the content of this article.
Large displacement engines are backward.
There are also enterprises with good financial indicators in China, such as Weichai Power. In the first quarter of this year, Weichai Power's gross profit margin was 22.44% and its net interest rate was 6.65%. It should be noted that this listed company is not a complete vehicle enterprise in essence, but a commercial vehicle spare parts enterprise, and commercial vehicle engine revenue accounts for an absolute majority. The gross profit margin of commercial vehicle engines is mostly around 20%, which is twice as high as that of China Heavy Truck 10%.
This can also be seen from the financial differences between China National Heavy Duty Truck Company and the listed companies of National Heavy Duty Truck Company. China National Heavy Duty Truck A shares mainly sell heavy trucks, with gross profit margin 1 1.5% and net interest rate of 4%. China National Heavy Duty Truck H-share Company has a gross profit margin of 19% and a net interest rate of 6. 1%. The reason why the profitability is so poor is not only because the company's H shares are the controlling shareholders of A shares, but more importantly, China Heavy Duty Truck H shares have more engine business assets.
Speaking of engines, Cummins, the world's largest independent engine manufacturer, is also the international benchmark of Weichai Power. The company's revenue in 20 19 was USD 23.57 billion, and its net profit was USD 2.2 billion. The gross profit margin and net interest rate were 25% and 10% respectively. It should be mentioned that Cummins engine business only accounts for 34% of its revenue. In addition to the engine and powertrain, its business also includes powertrain related parts, power system and distribution business, accounting for 23.4%, 65,438+05.2% and 27.3% respectively.
57% of Cummins' revenue comes from the United States, followed by Chinese mainland, accounting for 65,438+00%. In 20 19, the company's revenue in China was USD 2.3 billion, and China market was its fastest growing overseas market. The joint ventures established in China include Chongqing Cummins, Futian Cummins and Dongfeng Cummins.
On July 1 this year, Cummins China announced that u.s.-china business council (USCBC) had announced its most trusted board members, including the new chairman, Cummins Chairman and CEO Tom Linebarger. Linebarger).
International brands are cautious about investing in China's vehicle market, but may be more interested in China's commercial vehicle powertrain market, especially the powertrain and key components, including the exhaust gas recirculation system, which are important components with high value after the implementation of the National Sixth National Congress.
Logistics overload has greatly promoted the development of high-end heavy truck market equipped with large displacement engines. From 20 15 to 2020 1-5 months, the proportion of heavy truck engines with displacement above 12 liter in China is 1%, 4.6%,1/0.5% and/kloc-0 respectively. 20 16 compared with American 8-class trucks, 12 liter or more engines account for more than 60%, and 20 17 European 12 liter or more heavy trucks account for 65%. There is still a big gap between 18% in China, which means that China still has huge room for improvement in the field of high-end engines.
From June 5438 to May this year, the Man series engines of China National Heavy Duty Truck increased significantly year-on-year. According to the series engines of supporting heavy trucks, a total of 6 1 1 10,000 vehicles were sold, which increased by 86.3% year-on-year, and became the main products of supporting heavy trucks. In 2065438+2009, it accounted for 90.4% of the total engine parts, and in the last two years it was 45% and 65% respectively. 12 liter and above heavy truck engines accounted for 36.3%, and in recent two years they accounted for 18.4% and 25.3% respectively.
The top-end WP 13( 12.5L) heavy truck engines of Weichai Power will account for 18, 20 19 and1-May respectively in the sales volume in 2020.
Therefore, compared with the whole vehicle manufacturing, in the high-end powertrain, the China market is more "fragrant" in terms of market potential and product profit rate. As the new representative of u.s.-china business council, Mr. Tom Linebarger, Chairman of Cummins, may take this opportunity to increase his investment in China.
The Tail and New Trajectory of Bull Market
When foreign-funded enterprises invest in commercial vehicles in China, they still need to face an unavoidable problem, that is, the time window. The COVID-19 epidemic has ravaged the world, and commercial vehicle enterprises outside China have to face a difficult period. Assuming that the overseas epidemic situation can be controlled in the next year or so, the bull market cycle of commercial vehicles in China started from 2065438+September 2006 and has lasted for nearly four years now. Optimism is estimated to last for another year or two. By then, the biggest cycle of changing cars in China commercial vehicle market will come to an end, which may be followed by a bear market cycle that lasts for several years.
At present, it is more troublesome for overseas logistics and talents to enter China. The bull market cycle of heavy trucks in China waits for no one, and it may end in the next year or two. Even the "China Speed" of Tesla Shanghai has been used for more than a year. It's a little late to catch the tail of the bull market cycle in China.
Although the time window of the bull market is about to close, the commercial vehicle market is opening a new opportunity of the times. This opportunity is equivalent to 20 15 pure electric vehicle to passenger car market, that is, fuel cell "hydrogen energy", especially hydrogen energy to heavy trucks.
On the one hand, heavy trucks only account for 3% of the total number of cars in China, but they are the main sources of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter; On the other hand, the port has a large logistics volume and concentrated transportation range, which is convenient for the construction of supporting hydrogenation facilities and provides an excellent scene for the commercialization of fuel cell heavy trucks.
Compared with diesel heavy trucks and electric heavy trucks, fuel cell heavy trucks have the advantages of zero emission, heavy load and long cruising range. An academician of China Academy of Engineering predicts that by 2050, more than 50% of heavy trucks will use hydrogen fuel cell engines, and it is the general trend for heavy trucks to use hydrogen fuel cells. This is a brand-new track. On this track, everyone has just started, and there is no real oligarch yet. This may be the key track for commercial vehicles in the future 10 to 20 years. Autobots will introduce it in detail later. (Text/"Autobots" scrolling, some pictures are from the network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of "Autobots Media", and the copyright belongs to "Autobots Media".
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.