"Feasibility Study Report" content and preparation requirements
Feasibility Study Report" content and preparation requirements
Feasibility Study (Feasibility Study) is a feasibility study through the main content of the project and the supporting conditions, such as market demand, supply of resources, scale of construction, process routes, equipment selection, environmental impact, financing, profitability, etc., from the technical, economic, engineering and other aspects of investigation, research and analysis and comparison. From the technical, economic, engineering and other aspects of investigation, research and analysis and comparison, and the project may be built after the completion of the financial, economic benefits and social and environmental impact of the forecast, so as to put forward the project whether it is worth investing in and how to carry out the construction of the advisory opinions for the project decision-making basis for a comprehensive systematic analysis method. Feasibility study should have the foresight, impartiality, reliability, scientific characteristics.
China's current feasibility study of the main problems that exist, one is the depth of the research and demonstration of engineering and technical programs is not enough. In accordance with common practice abroad, the feasibility study stage of the depth of research should be able to reach the degree of fixed program, and therefore require proof of engineering and technical programs, should reach the degree of Basic Design or ConceptDesign, basically equivalent to the level of China's preliminary design should be achieved, should be put forward a clear list of equipment; Secondly, the financial evaluation of the project on the project, which is the same as the foreign use of corporate finance theories and methods of capital budgeting. Secondly, the financial evaluation of the project on the project, which is different from the common practice of foreign countries to use the theory and method of enterprise finance to carry out capital budget management, investment decision-making and financing decision-making of investment projects, and inappropriate use of the concept of "national economic evaluation" in economic evaluation, which has caused a series of misunderstandings; thirdly, there is a big difference between foreign countries in the analysis of the market, organization and institutions, etc., the depth of the study is seriously insufficient; fourthly, it does not pay attention to the comparison of multiple options and project risk analysis, or analysis of the project risk analysis, or the analysis of the project risk analysis. Fourth, the lack of attention to the comparison of multiple options and project risk analysis, or analysis of the content, depth, lack of risk management at all stages of the project cycle of unified planning and strategic argumentation.
First, the basis and requirements of the feasibility study
(a) the basis of the feasibility study
The feasibility study of a proposed project must be completed under the guidance of the relevant national planning, policies, regulations, and, at the same time, there must be a variety of technical information. Feasibility study work mainly based on the following: ① national long-term planning for economic and social development, sectoral and regional planning, economic construction guidelines, tasks, industrial policies, investment policies and technical and economic policies, as well as national and local laws and regulations, etc.; ② approved project proposals and project proposals signed after the approval of the intentional agreement, etc.; ③ approved by the state of the resource report, land development (iii) Resource reports, land development plans, regional plans and industrial base plans approved by the state. For the construction of transportation projects should have the relevant river basin planning and road network planning, etc.; ④ national import and export trade policy and tariff policy; ⑤ local site of the proposed plant's natural, economic, social and other basic information; ⑥ relevant national, regional and industry engineering, technology, economic decrees, laws and regulations, standards and quotas, etc.; ⑦ issued by the state of the feasibility of the construction project and the economic evaluation of the relevant provisions; ⑧ contains a variety of market information market research reports.
(B) the general requirements of the feasibility study
Feasibility study for the entire project construction process and even the entire national economy are very important, in order to ensure the feasibility of scientific, objective and impartiality of the feasibility study to effectively prevent errors and omissions, in the feasibility study, (1) the first must be in an objective and impartial standpoint for investigation and research, and to do a good job of Collection of basic information. For the collection of basic information, in accordance with the objective reality of the argumentation and evaluation, truthfully reflect the objective economic laws, from the objective data, through scientific analysis, to conclude whether the project is feasible. (2) The depth of the feasibility study report must meet the national standards, the basic content should be complete, as much as possible to occupy the data and information, to avoid shoddy work and formalism. In the practice to grasp the following four points: ① first demonstration, after the decision; ② deal with the project proposal, feasibility study, assessment of the relationship between the three stages, which stage is found to be infeasible should stop the study; ③ to carry out the investigation and research. Must have practical and reliable information to ensure the comprehensiveness of the selection of information, importance, objectivity and continuity; ④ multi-program comparison, selection of the best. For foreign-related projects, or in the addition of WTO and other external factors under the pressure of the project must be aligned with foreign countries, the content and depth of the feasibility study should also be as far as possible with international standards. (3) in order to ensure the quality of the feasibility study, should ensure that the consulting and design unit sufficient work cycle, to prevent irresponsible and hasty action for various reasons.
The specific work cycle by the commissioning unit and the consulting design unit in the signing of the contract negotiation to determine.
(C) the main content of the feasibility study
Various types of investment project feasibility study content and focus on the characteristics of the industry varies greatly, but generally should include the following:
1. investment necessity. Mainly based on the results of market surveys and forecasts, as well as relevant industrial policies and other factors, to demonstrate the necessity of project investment and construction. In the demonstration of investment necessity, one is to do a good job in the analysis of the investment environment, the composition of the investment environment of the various elements of a comprehensive analysis of the demonstration, the second is to do a good job in the market research, including market supply and demand forecasts, competitiveness analysis, price analysis, market segmentation, positioning and marketing strategy demonstration.
2. Technical feasibility. Mainly from the technical point of view of the implementation of the project, the rational design of technical programs, and comparison and evaluation. The technical feasibility of different projects in various industries vary greatly in content and depth. For industrial projects, feasibility studies should be able to achieve a relatively clear technical proof of the depth of the list of equipment; for a variety of non-industrial projects, technical proof of the program should be up to the depth of the preliminary design of the current engineering program, in order to align with international practice.
3. Financial feasibility. Mainly from the point of view of the project and investors, the design of a reasonable financial program, from the point of view of corporate finance, capital budgeting, evaluation of the project's financial profitability, investment decision-making, and from the point of view of the main body of the financing (enterprise) to evaluate the shareholders' investment returns, cash flow plans and debt settlement ability.
4. Organizational feasibility. Develop a reasonable project implementation schedule, design a reasonable organizational structure, select experienced managers, establish good collaborative relationships, develop appropriate training programs, etc., to ensure the smooth implementation of the project.
5. Economic feasibility. Mainly from the perspective of resource allocation to measure the value of the project, evaluation of the project in the realization of regional economic development goals, effective allocation of economic resources, increase supply, create employment, improve the environment, improve people's lives and other aspects of the benefits.
6. Social feasibility. Mainly analyze the impact of the project on society, including the political system, guidelines and policies, economic structure, law and morality, religion and ethnicity, women and children and social stability.
7. Risk factors and countermeasures. Mainly on the project's market risk, technical risk, financial risk, organizational risk, legal risk, economic and social risk and other risk factors for evaluation, to develop risk avoidance measures, for the whole process of project risk management to provide a basis. The content of the above feasibility study, adapted to various types of investment projects in different industries. At present, China lacks a unified method to regulate the content and depth of feasibility studies for various types of investment projects. At present, the regulations on feasibility studies formulated by various regions and departments are basically based on the content of feasibility studies for industrial projects and are basically prepared in accordance with UNIDO's Manual for the Preparation of Feasibility Studies for Industrial Projects as a blueprint. China is in urgent need of a common industry on the feasibility study of the content and depth of the **** requirements of the unified provisions to standardize the entire feasibility study, to avoid the current feasibility study of various non-industrial projects have to refer to the embarrassing situation of industrial projects.
General project feasibility study of the content, there should be a special chapter on the need for investment, technical feasibility, financial feasibility, organizational feasibility and risk analysis. For industrial projects, there should be a number of chapters on the supply of raw materials, site selection, process programs, equipment selection, civil engineering, general layout, auxiliary engineering, safety, energy saving measures and other aspects of technical feasibility of the content of the study. For non-industrial projects, attention should be paid to the economic and social evaluation of the project, focusing on evaluating the sustainability of the project and the economic and social environmental impact.
In the feasibility study, consulting engineers should be based on the characteristics of the project, reasonably determine the scope and depth of the feasibility study, should be carried out in accordance with the following steps to carry out consulting work: ① to understand the intentions of the owner; ② to clarify the scope of the study; ③ to form a project team; ④ to collect information; ⑤ on-site research; ⑥ program selection and evaluation; ⑦ to prepare the report.
Second, the main work of consulting engineers in the feasibility study
The following focuses on industrial projects, for example, to introduce the main work of consulting engineers in the feasibility study should be undertaken.
(a) market analysis and marketing strategy study
Market analysis and marketing strategy is the premise of the feasibility study, is to decide the investment objectives, scope, scale, process technology, site selection key. Through market analysis, the development of sales planning and marketing strategy, to find new market opportunities, is an important part of the work of consulting engineers in the feasibility study.
1. Market analysis.
Market analysis is a systematic analysis and evaluation of the product market and the market environment, including: market segmentation, consumer behavior research, competitiveness analysis, competitive products and sales strategy research, as well as the study of their interdependence, product life cycle analysis, as well as related social factors, ecological factors and the impact of economic factors. For non-productive (non-industrial) projects, the market analysis focuses on the analysis of demand for economic and social development, such as transportation projects that analyze the requirements of social development in terms of volume, mode, quality and time of transportation. For production projects, the main purpose of market analysis is to discover and seek new products needed by the market, discover new products and new uses for existing products, discover potential markets, study the trends of consumers and competitors, analyze the market capacity and predict the growth rate of the market, and study the company's marketing and promotion strategy. Market analysis must understand the quantity and quality of the project's products and by-products, as well as process and regional constraints. Commonly used demand forecasting methods include trend extrapolation, consumption level method, consumption coefficient method (or end-use method), leading index method, regression analysis, consumer interviews and so on.
2. Marketing strategy.
The feasibility study should present a sales scenario based on appropriate marketing research in accordance with the objectives of the project and the principles of investment and financial decision-making. The sales scenario should include the strategic and practical scope of sales, sales tools, sales volume and price, sales network, sales plan and cost budget. The purpose of developing a project marketing strategy is to study the methods and activities required to achieve the project objectives, such as product novelty, low cost, noble quality, distinctive features, and increased market share. The key points in developing the project marketing strategy are the evaluation of market structure objectives, customer analysis and market segmentation; sales channel and marketing network analysis; competitiveness analysis; socio-economic environment analysis, sales forecast, market outlook and risk analysis. On the basis of determining the marketing strategy, determine the project's product program and production scale, forecast sales receipts, estimated sales costs.
(B) construction conditions and site selection
1. Construction conditions such as the supply of raw materials.
The source, cost and stability of supply of basic raw materials required for production is one of the key factors in determining the scale of the project and economic benefits. Therefore, the feasibility study must be a detailed analysis of the required materials and inputs source, quantity, quality, supply years, cost, as well as transportation mode, capacity and cost. If necessary, it is also necessary to carry out a multi-option analysis.
The selection of raw materials depends primarily on the technical requirements of the project and the state of the raw material supply market, but the determining factors should be environmental, such as depletion of resources, pollution problems, and project objectives (e.g., minimizing supply risks and the cost of inputs, etc.). By analyzing key issues such as raw material requirements, sources, costs and risks, the types of raw materials are classified according to the scale of production and technical specifications of the process, requirements are determined, possible sources are studied and cost estimates are made.
Other construction conditions such as fuel, transportation, social culture, policy, and legal environment are also considered in the feasibility study.
2. Site selection.
Whether the site selection is reasonable directly affects the success or failure of the project. Pre-project stages will be involved in the plant site: investment opportunity study stage only from the geographical location of the plant site is generally considered; pre-feasibility stage is to choose a point (Location), that is, in accordance with the conditions of the plant, selected a suitable area; in the feasibility stage should be the finalization of the site (Site), that is, through the on-site geological prospecting, collection and analysis of hydrological, meteorological and geological information to determine the project is located in the plant site. The project is located in the plant site.
Feasibility study stage of the site selection, including the plant area, site and environmental aspects of the analysis and evaluation. Factors to be considered include: ① natural environment, geographical conditions and project requirements; ② evaluation of the impact of the project on the ecological environment; ③ local socio-economic environment, encouraging or restricting policies and local development plans; ④ infrastructure conditions, such as water, electricity, steam supply, transportation and communications, three waste disposal; ⑤ project development and marketing strategy. Plant site selection should analyze the impact of the plant site on construction investment and production costs, including land costs, construction works, and off-plant works. Through the comparison of construction investment, the plant site program is preferred.
(C) process technology programs
1. The design and evaluation of process technology programs.
Feasibility study, should be based on the quality of products, varieties of requirements and raw materials and other casting characteristics, combined with the "three wastes" emission standards and other ecological and environmental requirements, according to the advancement, reliability and economic requirements, the design and selection of a variety of process technology routes. Feasibility study stage of the technology program design, mainly conceptual design (Concept Design), equivalent to China's current "preliminary design", put forward a preliminary program of technology design, and the technical program of the process route for evaluation. Design and evaluation of the principles of: ① advanced principle. The technology used in the product level, process level and equipment level are advanced; ② principle of adaptability. Adoption of technology should be considered in line with the establishment of national and regional
Resource conditions, suitable for the local quality of personnel; technical level should be suitable for the actual level of local economic and technological development; ③ principle of safety and reliability. The adopted technology should be mature, reliable, safe, no harm or adverse effects on the operator and the environment; ④ principle of adaptability of regulations. The adopted technology should not violate the local government laws and regulations and development planning and related policies. The main methods of technical evaluation are: comparison table method, value engineering method, comprehensive cost efficiency method, break-even point method, equipment life cycle cost method, profit and loss method.
2. Civil engineering.
The content of civil works varies from project to project and must be linked to the specific site and facilities that may be required. Feasibility studies should plan and estimate the cost of civil works related to the project, including site preparation and remediation, plant and other building construction, utilities, transportation, "three wastes" emissions and treatment, site roads, fire and other infrastructure.
3. Plant layout.
In determining the process and the production process, and ultimately determine the production equipment and cast a list of characters, according to the process requirements and site conditions, a reasonable arrangement of various production workshops and utilities and service facilities, and draw the following charts: ① plant general layout, illustrating the main structures and buildings, such as large-scale equipment, roads, railroads and other transportation facilities, a variety of utility works and service facilities location; ② production line diagram, illustrating the production process, equipment, geometric dimensions, location and space requirements; ③ material flow diagram, showing the material flow, utilities, emissions, and intermediate and final products in the factory between the various parts of the flow; ④ transportation road map, illustrating the final physical distribution of utility lines, consumption, contact communication facilities.
(iv) Project organization and implementation plan
1. Project organization and management.
Efficient, streamlined project operation organization and reasonable staffing especially the quality of key positions is to ensure the successful implementation of the project and the operation of the important conditions. According to the technical characteristics of the production process, equipment management, production organization and product marketing and sales planning, to design a reasonable organizational structure, and the establishment of the relevant management system. The organizational setup mainly depends on the scale and type of the project as well as the development strategy and policy, as well as the needs and conditions of the project's construction and operation periods, and should take the following factors into consideration: the organizational structure of the project and the enterprise should be aimed at the optimal coordination and control of all the project's inputs to ensure the project's/hectare's profitable operation; the setup of the organizational structure constitutes a portion of the project's investment and production costs, and the related fees and costs should be clarified; Organizational structure should be dynamic, according to the development of the project and be able to constantly adjust.
General industrial enterprise organization can be divided into three levels; that is, the top management, responsible for the project long-term planning, budgeting, coordination and control; intermediate operating layer, responsible for the specific operation of the project, such as production organization, sales, financial management, etc.; supervisory management, responsible for overseeing the day-to-day business activities.
2. Project implementation plan.
The purpose of the project implementation plan preparation is to determine the specific time schedule for the implementation of the project, and analyze the impact on process technology and finance to ensure the smooth implementation of the project. Implementation plan preparation, including project scheduling, construction organization, etc., usually using Gantt (Gantt) chart, also known as line drawing BarChart) to prepare the project implementation plan. The process of developing the project implementation plan should be based on the resources and activities required for each stage of time, to determine the implementation of the various phases, to determine the type of project must be implemented on-site and off-site work, to determine the logical order of the work tasks, consider the time needed to complete each task, the preparation of the implementation of the schedule in time stages.
3. Human resource allocation.
The human resource allocation of the project is to ensure the successful implementation of the project key. Feasibility study to put forward the project on a variety of technical and management personnel needs, including different levels of management and supervisory personnel, engineers and technicians, skilled and unskilled workers. In staffing, full consideration must be given to the labor legislation of the country where the project is located, labor conditions, quotas, salaries, insurance, occupational safety, health care and social security and other factors, feasibility study of the project at different stages of the staffing of the preparation of staffing table, the sources of human resources to analyze the development of recruitment plans and the number of external experts, and the development of personnel training programs, manpower cost estimates.
(E) environmental impact assessment
Feasibility study should be a comprehensive, integrated, systematic and practical evaluation of the possible environmental impact of the project, this evaluation is often very important for the social, economic, technical and financial feasibility of the project. Environmental impact analysis includes the impact of the project on the surrounding area, especially on the local population, flora and fauna.
1. Environmental impact factor analysis.
The analysis of environmental impact factors should be based on the regulations of the country where the project is located, the three waste emission standards for the identification and analysis of impact factors, on the basis of the environmental background investigation, to analyze the impact of the implementation of the project on the local environment. The main purposes are: ① to make a comprehensive and integrated analysis of the consequences of the environmental impacts of the project on nature and human settlements; ② to study and understand the scope and extent of the new environmental impacts of the various options for the project; ③ to incorporate the requirements of environmental protection laws and regulations into the feasibility study; ④ to determine the measures to mitigate the negative environmental impacts and increase the favorable impacts; ⑤ to analyze the various environmental issues that need to be further studied; and ⑥ to make necessary qualitative analysis of various environmental impacts. Conduct the necessary qualitative and quantitative analysis and research on various environmental impacts, and determine the main advantages and disadvantages of the project program in terms of the environment.
2. Cost - benefit evaluation of environmental impacts.
That is, the application of cost - benefit evaluation, is based on the analytical principles and methods of environmental impact economics, quantitative analysis of the quantifiable part of the environmental impact. Analytical methods are mainly used cost - benefit analysis model, such as the United Nations Environment Programme's "expanded cost - benefit analysis test model", the environmental costs and benefits of the valorization method, that is, to improve the environment, "willing to pay" or environmental degradation of the "acceptance of the compensation", the monetary form of expression of the cost or benefit; direct monetary method, such as the "cost savings (or cost-effective) method", the method of direct investigation as a baseline The direct monetary method, such as the "probability of payment method", "probability of ranking method"; indirect market-based methods, such as the "hedonic pricing method" and so on.
(F) social impact assessment
In accordance with the requirements of the World Bank and other international financial organizations, in the feasibility study stage should be carried out in the project's social assessment, analysis of the project to achieve the social development goals of the country and the region's contribution to the impact of the project, as well as the project's mutual adaptability to society. The main contents are related to population, employment, resettlement of immigrants, equitable distribution, culture and history, women, ethnicity and religion, living standards and quality of life of the residents, and social infrastructure, etc. The evaluation focuses on the communities surrounding the project, and should also take into account the impact of the project on technological advancement, time-saving, promotion of regional and sectoral development, and improvement of the economic layout and industrial structure. Evaluation indicators include employment effects, income distribution benefits, resource conservation indicators, equitable distribution, poverty alleviation effects, women's participation, institutional development and sustainability. China's current pre-investment project consultation and demonstration has not yet incorporated social evaluation into the procedures and scope of feasibility studies. In order to be in line with international standards, consideration should be given to strengthening social evaluation in feasibility studies;
(VII) Financial Evaluation
China's current financial evaluation of investment projects, there is a certain gap with the usual practice abroad, which is highlighted in the separation of the project from the enterprise, and the separation of the financial evaluation of the project from the capital budgeting and financial management activities of the enterprise as a whole, in accordance with the so-called investment estimation, Funding, profitability analysis, debt solvency analysis of the logical process of analysis, highlighting the planned economy era of financial management ideas. The general content of the financial evaluation should include:
1. Project investment cash flow forecast.
According to the principle of comparison with or without, according to the project's product program, construction scale, process technology program and other requirements, the project investment may generate cash flow estimates: ① project investment estimates, including equipment acquisition, installation, civil engineering and other engineering costs, various capital expenditures before production and investment in current assets; ② product sales revenue or project to provide services operating income forecasts (iii) the project in the operating period of the various operation and maintenance costs forecast. According to the estimation and forecast results, the cash flow of the investment program. It should be noted that, in accordance with internationally accepted financial management practices, the investment estimate does not include "construction period interest". In fact, the construction period interest can not be estimated at this stage.
2. Financial evaluation of investment programs.
According to the results of the project investment program cash flow forecasts, the preparation of fixed asset investment estimates, working capital (working capital) estimates, the main outputs and investment in the character price table, the production cost per unit of product table, depreciation of fixed assets, intangibles and deferred assets amortization estimates, operating cost estimates, sales revenue and sales tax calculation table and other auxiliary statements, and based on this prepare a cash flow statement of the project investment. Project investment cash flow statement, calculate the profit before interest and tax (EBIT) for each year, evaluate the financial profitability of the project investment, investment decision-making. Here the calculation of financial indicators equivalent to the current financial evaluation of investment projects in China, "the difference between the investment before income tax" financial evaluation of the calculation of indicators, the main purpose is not to take into account the depreciation, income tax, financing schemes, such as "human factors" in the case of the analysis of the project itself has the profitability of the proposed project investment decision-making, from the point of view of the project's financial viability of the choice of investment projects.
3. Financial evaluation of financing programs.
For the investment program financial evaluation of feasible projects, should be further analysis of financing options, choose the best financing options. The object of the investment program analysis is the project itself, the object of the financing program analysis is the main body of the financing of the project, if the main body of the financing of the project is not the project itself set up by the project company, it is necessary to analyze the project based on the entire enterprise. The main analysis includes: ① according to the financing body of the asset-liability structure and creditworthiness and other factors, analyze the various possible financing channels and financing methods; ② according to the profitability of the project itself and the financial situation of the entire financing body, analyze the level of financial leverage that should be used to carry out a financial leverage analysis, the proportion of the choice of the asset-liability structure and financing options; ③ according to the financing plan, calculate the cost of financing, prepare the Financial plan cash flow statement. In addition to the table contains the projected results of the project investment cash flow, should also include the construction period and production and operation period of borrowing debt service, dividend distribution, tax payments, etc. caused by the main body of the project financing its own complete financial plan cash flow, financial sustainability analysis; ④ Calculation of the cash flow after income tax, evaluation of the profitability of the equity investment and the impact on the shareholders' wealth enhancement (here with the current calculation of our country) After income tax financial indicators for own funds or equity investment are partially similar); ⑤ Conduct analysis of the debt settlement ability of the financing subject.
(H) economic evaluation
Economic evaluation from the point of view of resource allocation to evaluate the costs and benefits of the project, analyze the economic feasibility of the project. Economic evaluation of the project's inputs into tradable goods (Tradeables), non-tradable goods (Non-tradeables) and other inputs (including housing, etc.) and other three categories, through the opportunity cost of measuring the shadow price, through the social discount rate to evaluate and calculate the project's net present value and internal rate of return and other aspects of economic evaluation indicators, and other aspects of economic evaluation.
The essential difference between financial evaluation and economic evaluation is that financial evaluation is from the perspective of financial management, cash receipts and disbursements to evaluate the project, which involves issues related to "money", economic evaluation is from the point of view of resource allocation to evaluate the project, which involves the use of resources is reasonable. In a broad sense, financial evaluation, including macro and micro levels, micro-level financial evaluation is the aforementioned project level of financial evaluation of investment programs and financial evaluation of financing programs, macro-level financial evaluation should be evaluated from the perspective of the national economy of the project on the national income, GDP and other monetary income contribution and its related financial issues at the macro level. Correspondingly, the economic evaluation should also include two levels of micro and macro, micro-level economic evaluation that is the project level economic evaluation, its theoretical basis is mainly based on the microeconomics of the relevant equilibrium, willingness to pay, consumer surplus, opportunity cost and other theories to deduce a shadow price system reflecting the project in a particular region of the "true economic value" of the resources, evaluation of the project in a particular region at the micro level. To evaluate the optimal allocation of resources in a specific region, UNIDO method and L-M method (also known as OECD method) are generally adopted. Macro-level economic evaluation should be from the perspective of the macro-regional economic impact of the project, and major projects should be from the perspective of the whole national economy, evaluating the impact of the project on the allocation of resources affecting the region and the national economy as a whole, such as the impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure of the region, the impact on the cultivation of the regional fist industry, the impact on the economic security of the country, the impact on the enhancement of international competitiveness and the development of the national economy, and the impact on the balanced development of the economy among the regions. The impact of balanced development between regions, etc.
At present, in the relevant literature on project evaluation in China, the economic evaluation of the project level (economic appraisal, mainly focusing on microeconomic analysis) is called national economic appraisal (national economicappraisal), which is not only a serious misunderstanding of the economic evaluation method itself, but also misleads people's project Evaluation of practical activities, but also not conducive to people to further explore how to really from the macro, national economic level of some major projects to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of the theoretical and methodological research. China's current project evaluation methodology system is in urgent need of innovation.
(IX) risk analysis
Risk is the possibility or opportunity for people to encounter danger, loss or injury in the activity, is a subjective, personal foresight of uncertainty, or the possible results of deviation from the expected goal. For a project, the goal of risk management is to make the project successful, to create a calm and stable environment for the implementation of the project, to reduce project costs, to avoid losses and waste, to minimize or eliminate external interference, and to make the project go into operation smoothly and with stable benefits. Risks that should be considered in the decision-making stage of the project include: investment environment risk, geological risk, design and technology risk, resource risk, market risk, raw material risk, layout safety risk, engineering and construction risk, human resources risk, capital risk, exchange rate risk and the risk of force majeure. In the financial evaluation, the impact of various risk factors on the financial evaluation indexes should be analyzed for uncertainty and risk, including break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis, probability analysis and decision tree analysis. Risk factors should be identified in accordance with certain methods, analyze the impact of risk factors on the project objectives, classify the risk level, assess the results of the impact of risk, and put forward targeted risk avoidance countermeasures according to the specific characteristics of different types of risk. China's current pre-project demonstration and project management process lacks the whole process of risk management planning. In order to align with international standards and improve China's project investment decision-making and project management level, it is necessary to pay attention to risk analysis in the feasibility study stage.