The chain operation realizes the "least link, shortest path, lowest cost, highest efficiency" of commodity sales, which reduces the retail price of commodities and improves the market competitiveness of retail enterprises. Through the operation of "scale, standardization, specialization, unification and simplicity", chain operation reduces the circulation cost, improves the circulation efficiency, expands the influence of the enterprise, and increases the economic benefits of the enterprise. Distribution center is the key department of chain drugstore, how to improve drug distribution is very important. Drug distribution to solve what? From the point of view of on-site business work: distribution centers have specific tasks such as receiving and inspecting medicines, storing medicines, circulating and processing, subcontracting medicines, distributing, transferring and dispensing medicines, etc. From the point of view of management work: distribution centers have the task of managing the price of medicines, statistically analyzing the imports, sales and inventories of medicines in each chain store, and managing the total inventory of distribution centers. From the perspective of realizing the function of distribution center, the basic problems to be solved by the distribution work of distribution center should be as follows: ◆ Distribute medicines scientifically to the grassroots retail stores to achieve the right sales, right time and right amount of medicines distribution. Timely and reasonable adjustment of the surplus and shortage of drugs in each chain store, so that there is neither shortage nor backlog. ◆ Scientific statistics and analysis of market demand for medicines, and formulation of reasonable distribution plans. Reasonable organization of drug supplies. In order to improve the effectiveness of distribution work, efficiency and reduce distribution costs, distribution centers in the specific implementation of drug distribution, we must focus on solving the following three aspects of the technical problems: 1. The scientific distribution of the number of drugs. Distribution center to scientifically prepare a drug distribution plan to determine the distribution of drug varieties, quantities, locations and time, that is, to decide: ① to each chain store distribution of those varieties? ② the number of drugs distributed to each chain store? When will these drugs be distributed to the chain stores? 2. Optimization of drug distribution routes. Optimization of distribution routes can not only greatly save energy and freight, but also improve the timeliness of distribution.3. Rationalization of distribution. Rationalization of the distribution of drugs and medical devices can also effectively save energy and freight costs to achieve the purpose of reducing the cost of distribution operations. Among the above three issues, the first one is the most important, because it is the main link to ensure the chain operation. Current distribution methods and existing problems in the chain drugstore drug distribution, often use the following two types of drug distribution methods: 1, by the chain store in accordance with the sales application for the distribution method of distribution This distribution method is usually called the pull type, which is more suitable for loose chain management group, or used for the periphery of the chain management group of the tight franchise, but also as a chain of drugstores temporary drug demand for the supplemental means It can also be used as a supplementary means for the temporary demand of drugs in chain pharmacies. For some special drugs, such as drugs requiring special storage conditions or management requirements, expensive drugs with low sales volume, bulky medical equipment with troublesome handling, etc., they can be stored centrally and then distributed and transferred according to the application of sales demand. The advantages of the distribution method of applying for distribution are easy to realize and the management of the distribution center is simple. The disadvantage is that chain drugstore leaders at the grassroots level have heavy workloads and cannot devote themselves to sales and service, which is not conducive to the centralized accounting, assessment and management of the chain management system; when the emphasis is on the assessment of operational efficiency, the grassroots stores may ignore inventory accounting, resulting in increased inventory of the grassroots chain stores, resulting in a tendency to produce a backlog of medicines. 2. Distribution by the distribution center in accordance with the plan to allocate the distribution of goods, this distribution is usually called the push type. This distribution method is usually called push type and is one of the distribution methods used by many chain drugstores. It applies to the close-knit chain group, or the core level of the chain group of chain drugstores. It can overcome the shortcomings of the distribution method of applying for distribution, and facilitate the centralized accounting, assessment and management of the chain management system, but the distribution center must be carefully prepared distribution plan, which makes the management of the distribution center complex and difficult to increase. If the computerized management is not used, it is difficult to work. Chain drugstores to develop distribution plans have the following methods: (1) regular, quantitative plan distribution methods. Over a period of time, a chain store sales of a certain drug has a certain stability, and its chain store business area, business location, customer traffic and other factors have a certain connection. Therefore, the distribution center can be based on a cycle of various chain stores of various drug sales experience (for example, one week, ten days), to develop a regular, quantitative drug distribution plan, in accordance with this distribution plan for the implementation of the distribution of drugs to various chain stores. (2) Distribution method based on inventory changes. The method of regular and quantitative plan distribution does not take into account the actual situation of drug inventory for hard drug distribution, not flexible enough, lack of flexibility, and its shortcomings are obvious. In order to reasonably control drug inventory and ensure a certain amount of inventory while avoiding backlogs, it is necessary to consider the timing of drug distribution and the quantity of distribution. Therefore, it is possible to set a lower limit on the number of drugs in stock as the starting point for distribution, i.e., distribution when it is lower than the lower limit (the lower limit of stock is also a safe stock quantity to prevent stock-outs and off-sales); and then set an upper limit on the number of individual drugs, with the difference between it and the number lower than the lower limit as the quantity to be distributed. The method of distribution based on the inventory limit requires timely control of the stock of drugs in each retail store, so that the right amount of drugs can be distributed at the right time. When using this method, how to develop a reasonable upper and lower limits is a problem that needs to be carefully studied, the inventory limit is well developed, can receive good results. (3) The method of distribution with reference to the sales volume of drugs in the previous period. The distribution method according to the inventory limit takes into account the factor of reasonable quantity of inventory, but does not take into account the situation of sales, and maximizing the sales demand is the most important concern of the chain operation. There is also some difficulty in preparing inventory limits. For this reason, some pharmacy chains use a method of distribution based on the sales of drugs in the previous period. The idea of this method is to base the sales volume of various drugs in the previous sales cycle of each chain store on a certain percentage (for example, the sales volume of drugs in the previous sales cycle multiplied by 110%) as the quantity of drugs to be distributed in the next cycle. If the sales volume of drugs in each time period is smooth, then the stock of drugs is also smooth, and the demand for drug sales can also be better met. There are some disadvantages of the above mentioned methods of drug distribution. For the first and second distribution methods, the problems have already been pointed out, and for the third distribution method, we point out that when the sales volume of medicines in each time period is stable, it is possible to control the stock of medicines and meet the sales of medicines in a better way. However, the sales volume of many drugs fluctuates. Chain pharmacies that fail to reasonably distribute drugs to ensure the demand for sales will incur the following two losses of interest: (1) Loss of out-of-stock of drug sales. Out-of-stock drugs will cause loss of sales opportunities, reduce repeat customers, and affect the goodwill of the pharmacy and market share share. (2) Backlog loss of drug inventory. The backlog of pharmaceuticals will cause the pharmacy's capital to be occupied, increase inventory costs, or create problems such as deterioration and expiration of pharmaceuticals. Distribution program under the fluctuation of drug sales 1. Fluctuating factors affecting the volume of drug sales The volatility of drug demand is the cause of fluctuations in sales volume. There are many factors that cause fluctuations in drug demand. (1) Seasonal fluctuation of drug demand. Many diseases occur seasonally. So, there is seasonality in the demand for many medicines like cold remedies and other medicines, which makes the purchase of them seasonal as well. (2) Fluctuation of drug renewal substitution. The development and innovation of technology, constantly produce new drugs to replace the returned drugs, many drugs have a life cycle, it makes the sales of drugs produce update alternative passive. (3) Sudden and accidental fluctuation. As long as the regularity of the factors affecting the fluctuation of pharmaceutical sales volume can be found, a solution can be found to the scientific distribution. Seasonal fluctuations in the demand for medicines seem to be very complicated, some medicines are sold more in the spring and fall, and some medicines are sold more in the summer..., but they are cyclical, and they have similar changes in the same seasons, which can be analyzed by the method of seasonal cycle analysis. The author in the early 1980s for a commercial bureau to prepare a statistical analysis of the flow of medicines program, found that only the use of trend analysis with the proportion of the seasonal method, you can accurately predict the sales of medicines in each month, the results of its results and the actual statistics compared to the error of each month is only ± 0.5%. So the seasonal fluctuation of drug sales is easy to grasp. For a large number of cyclical fluctuations in the preparation of the distribution plan for the calculation of drugs, the use of manual calculation of the workload is too large, if the computer program to calculate the workload is not large. Again, some drugs into the market, there is a slow growth in sales from the initial market to rapid growth, and then gradually decline and even the demise of the process, which is known as the life cycle of goods. Obviously, its sales volume is different at different times, and it can be predicted using the Goepperts curve. After some drugs or medical devices enter the market, its sales volume from small, to expanding, social ownership gradually increased, until the child needs to have the user of the drug or medical device, the number of social ownership of drugs into the saturation period. Its market saturation can be analyzed using a logistic curve (growth curve). The law of change in the sales volume of these drugs or medical devices is also easy to analyze, as long as adequate market research and careful analysis, can be grasped. The work of analyzing them manually is certainly difficult because of the complexity of the calculations, but it can be made easy by using a computer program to do so. According to the above analysis, the study and determine the chain of drugstore drug distribution plan method will have a clue. 3, drug sales volume forecasting analysis of the conditions for drug sales volume of various forecasting analysis must have sufficient historical data, no appropriate data can only rely on speculation, which is the basic and necessary conditions for forecasting analysis. Some pharmacies often do not pay attention to the business information, can not be reasonably preserved and utilized, the loss of valuable information resources for nothing. Various predictive analysis of pharmaceutical market sales, there are other conditions, such as the chain of drugstores business decision-makers, staff knowledge, appropriate working conditions and so on. For example, all the above calculations and analyses are absolutely difficult to realize if they are handled manually. How to develop a reasonable drug distribution plan from the above analysis can be recognized, reasonable drug distribution to ensure the benefits of chain management, to achieve the purpose of chain management. Reasonable drug distribution is based on the scientific prediction and analysis of market consumption, therefore, the chain drugstores must pay attention to the accumulation of sales data and the analysis of drug market prediction in order to produce a reasonable drug distribution plan. In this regard, the author has the following ideas and suggestions: (1) collecting and accumulating historical sales data, establishing and storing a database of historical sales information of medicines, and developing a computer program model library for predictive analysis. (2) In accordance with the distribution cycle, use the drug sales volume development trend and seasonal ratio prediction analysis model, regularly analyze and predict the market drug sales volume, and form a preliminary distribution plan for drugs. According to the author's experience, the computer's forecast analysis of the trend and seasonality of sales volume of each drug can be completed within a few tens of seconds, and the forecast analysis of more than a thousand kinds of drugs (the number of general drug business varieties in a pharmacy with a business area of about 80 square meters) can be realized within a few hours, i.e., the preliminary distribution plan of drugs can be completely realized within one working day. (3) For changes in sales volume due to factors such as the life cycle of pharmaceuticals (or medical devices) and the degree of saturation of market ownership, which is often a longer-term change, predictive analyses can be carried out on a quarterly and yearly basis in stages in order to adjust the preliminary distribution plan for pharmaceuticals. Within a certain period of time (e.g., one year), the sales volume of pharmaceuticals affected by the life cycle of the drug or medical device and the degree of saturation of market ownership is often only a small amount of the drug, and the distribution plan can be adjusted accordingly. (4) Based on other market research information, individually and comprehensively amend the distribution plan to form a formal distribution plan. (5) Summarize the distribution plan for a period of time (e.g., a month, a quarter, or a longer period of time), and prepare a procurement plan for drugs based on it. For the beginning of the chain of pharmacies, should actively collect market information, study the method of developing drug distribution plan, if it is difficult to obtain, then we have to pull the distribution, or distribution with reference to the previous period of drug sales for the transition, to be conditions ripe when the use of scientific distribution methods. Finally, it should be pointed out that a reasonable method of drug distribution cannot be solved by a simple, single technical method. It may consist of the synthesis of a variety of methods, through the balance of a variety of factors in order to achieve the desired results. Of course, the method of preparing a distribution plan should also be simple, practical and easy to operate in order to be applicable. Therefore, the method of designing a distribution plan must be adapted to the time and place.