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Macroeconomic Situation Analysis and Policy Orientation
In 2003, industrial production grew and the rural economy developed steadily; investment in fixed assets increased strongly and consumption continued to expand; foreign trade and import and export grew substantially, and the utilization of foreign capital remained at a high level. Various reforms have also advanced in an orderly manner, promoting the coordinated development of the regional economy. 2004, China's economic development is facing the international environment may be generally better than in 2003. Major international economic organizations have generally raised their forecasts for 2004, with the International Monetary Fund projecting global economic growth of 4.1 per cent and world trade growth of 5.5 per cent, and the OECD projecting world trade growth of 7.8 per cent, all higher than in 2003. These new changes in the international economy are favorable to China's accelerated development. But at the same time should also be seen, the world economic development, there are still some uncertainties, affecting the stabilization of the global economy rebound.
First, in 2003, economic and social development to go to the remarkable achievements
2003, in the face of the complex and changing international situation, the sudden outbreak of atypical pneumonia epidemic and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, Comrade Hu Jintao as General Secretary of the Party Central Committee to deal with the situation calmly, decisive decision-making, timely control, and grasp the development of the party's administration to develop the country's first priority to mobilize and organize the whole country to overcome all kinds of difficulties, and win the national development of the people, to promote the development of the country's economic development and the development of the country's economic and social stability. The people of China have overcome all kinds of difficulties, won a major stage victory in the fight against SARS, conquered all kinds of natural disasters, and maintained a good momentum of relatively fast economic growth and comprehensive development of social undertakings. It is initially estimated that the annual GDP will exceed 11 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of about 8.5 per cent, and the per capita GDP will exceed 1,000 U.S. dollars for the first time. The quality and efficiency of economic growth have further improved, and the annual fiscal revenue has increased by a large margin. Industrial enterprises realized a substantial increase in profits.
Industrial production growth accelerated, the rural economy developed steadily. Heavy industry continued to grow faster than light industry, electronic information, transportation equipment, electrical machinery and other manufacturing industries with higher technology content became the leading force of industrial growth. Raw coal and electric power production continued to grow at a fast pace. The level of industrial production and marketing was further improved. Agricultural quality, regionalization and industrialization continued to advance, and the animal husbandry and breeding industry developed at a faster pace. The state further increased investment in rural "six small" projects, rural health care and education, rural production and living conditions have been improved.
Fixed-asset investment is growing strongly, and consumption continues to expand. The annual investment in fixed assets is expected to grow by 23%. State bond investment further to improve rural infrastructure, start the construction of public **** health facilities, promote the coordinated development of the region, strengthen environmental protection and ecological construction, promote technological progress and other key areas of tilt. The enthusiasm of industrial enterprises for technological transformation continues to improve, private investment is becoming more active, and the autonomous growth factor in investment has been strengthened. Residents' consumption was once sharply reduced by the impact of the SARS outbreak, but recovered quickly after the SARS outbreak, and is expected to grow by 9% for the whole year. The pace of upgrading the consumer structure accelerated, residents for automobiles, communications, housing and other aspects of consumer spending increased substantially.
Foreign trade and import and export growth, the use of foreign capital to maintain a high level. It is expected that the total amount of foreign trade import and export will reach 840 billion U.S. dollars. In the total exports, the proportion of electromechanical products exports accounted for more than 50%, high-tech products and clothing, footwear and other traditional products exports to further expand. Imports of crude oil, refined oil products, steel and automobiles have increased more. The annual trade surplus was lower than that of the previous year. By further expanding the field of foreign investment and improving the investment environment, the actual utilization of foreign direct investment continued to remain at a high level. New progress was made in the implementation of the "going out" strategy, and foreign contracted projects and labor service cooperation expanded. The exchange rate of RMB is basically stable, and the country's foreign exchange reserves continue to increase.
Reforms were carried out in an orderly manner, and efforts to promote the coordinated development of regional economies continued to increase. The reform of government institutions has been steadily advanced, important steps have been taken in the reform of the state-owned asset management system, the framework of the financial sub-regulatory system has basically been formed, and the construction of the regulatory system for food safety and production safety has been strengthened. Reforms in the electric power, telecommunications and civil aviation sectors have been steadily implemented. Rural reform has been further deepened. New progress has been made in the development of western China, and ecological environmental protection and the construction of key projects in the western region have been actively promoted. The restructuring of the old industrial bases in the northeast region and other areas has begun to start.
All social undertakings have developed steadily, and people's lives continue to improve. Increased investment in state bonds, accelerating the construction of the public **** health system, and further improving the conditions of basic education in rural areas. Scientific and technological development in a number of areas and achieved significant results, the first manned space flight was a complete success. The incomes of urban and rural residents continue to rise. Employment and re-employment have achieved positive results, with more than 8 million people newly employed in cities and towns throughout the year. Social security work has been further strengthened.
Second, the economic development environment and the overall requirements of economic work in 2004
In 2004, China's economic development is facing an international environment that is generally better than that of 2003. The major international economic organizations have generally raised their forecasts for 2004, the International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 4.1 percent, world trade to grow by 5.5 percent, and the OECD expects world trade to grow by 7.8 percent, which is higher than that of 2003. These new changes in the international economy are favorable to China's accelerated development. But at the same time should also be seen, the world's economic development, there are still some uncertainties, affecting the stabilization of the global economy rebound.
From the domestic point of view, the national economy still has the conditions for faster development: (1) the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand will be further apparent, the material and technological basis of economic development has been strengthened, and the effective supply capacity has been significantly improved; (2) the opening up to the outside world continues to expand, so that we can more fully utilize the two markets and two kinds of resources, the space for economic development and room for maneuver continues to widen; (3) the Party's Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee's Decision on Several Issues Concerning the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System will enable the gradual elimination of some institutional and institutional barriers that have hindered development for many years, and the potential for the development of all kinds of enterprises of all ownerships will be better utilized to provide a new impetus for economic development; (4) after years of practice, the country's experience in macroeconomic control has been enriched, and its ability to manage complex situations has been Further enhancement.
But we must also see that the economic development is still facing some difficulties and problems: First, the slow growth of farmers' income, especially in the main grain producing areas and pure farm households to increase income difficulties, urban and rural income gap continues to widen. Grain production has been declining continuously, and the problem of neglecting agriculture and food production is more prominent in some places. Secondly, the employment situation remains grim. New jobs cannot meet the employment needs of urban and rural residents, and social security is under greater pressure. Thirdly, the tendency of blind investment and low-level expansion in some industries and regions is more obvious, the problem of blindly setting up development zones in some places is more prominent, the situation of rough operation with high energy consumption, waste of resources and environmental pollution is more serious, and the contradiction of resource constraints is becoming more and more prominent. Fourth, the credit investment is fast, the industry structure of the loan investment is not reasonable. Fifth, economic and social development is not coordinated enough, the development of public **** services can not meet the growing needs of the people. Sixth, the intensification of international trade protectionism, increasing the difficulty of China's export expansion, the use of foreign capital will also face more intense international competition.
In order to consolidate the current economic and social development of the good situation, and strive to solve the outstanding contradictions in economic life, and actively respond to the challenges, the central economic work conference determined that the overall requirements of the economic work in 2004: Deng Xiaoping Theory and the "Three Represents" as the guidance of the important thought, the full implementation of the 16th National Congress and the spirit of the 16th The Third Plenary Session of the 16th National Congress and the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), adhering to the people-oriented principle, establishing a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable concept of development, and doing a good job in accordance with the ideas of stabilizing policies and making moderate adjustments, deepening reforms and expanding openness, grasping the overall situation and resolving contradictions, and taking a balanced view of all aspects of society and coordinating development. Adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and sound monetary policy, to protect, guide and give full play to all aspects of the initiative to accelerate development, and effectively shift the focus of the work of adjusting the economic structure, transforming the mode of growth, and improve the quality and efficiency of growth, to achieve sustained, rapid, coordinated and healthy development of the national economy and social progress in all aspects.
Three, the macro-control policy orientation and main measures in 2004
2004 is an important year to fully implement the spirit of the 16th National Congress of the CPC and the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, and a key year to realize the objectives of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, we must further strengthen and improve macro-control, strengthen economic monitoring and control, and enhance economic monitoring, in accordance with the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference. We must further strengthen and improve macroeconomic control, strengthen economic monitoring and early warning and economic operation regulation, and actively do a good job in all aspects of work.
(a) adhere to the basic orientation of macro-control policy, correctly grasp the strength and focus of the policy. 2004 to maintain the continuity and stability of macro-economic policy, adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. At the same time, according to the change of the situation, differentiate the situation, adjust the strength and focus of the implementation of the policy at the right time, targeted to solve the outstanding contradictions and problems in the economic operation, and strive to maintain the steady growth of the economy, to avoid major ups and downs. In implementing a proactive fiscal policy, taking into account the need to maintain stability, promote development and push forward reform, as well as the requirement to strengthen the construction of public *** infrastructure and public welfare projects, a certain number of long-term construction treasury bonds should continue to be issued, with a focus on giving full play to the treasury funds in adjusting the economic structure. Promote the role of coordinated development, increase the "six small" projects and other rural infrastructure, public **** health care system, basic education and grass-roots power construction, western development and the northeast region and other old industrial base adjustment and transformation, ecological construction and environmental protection and other aspects of support, to ensure that in the construction of the construction of major national debt projects. Efforts to adjust the structure of fiscal expenditure have been stepped up, with a focus on the "three rural areas", public health, employment and social security. Zero growth in general expenditures will continue to be implemented, and "image projects" and "performance projects" in the construction of some localities will be curbed. We are studying the establishment of a sound government investment mechanism, forming a stable source of government investment funds that is commensurate with the requirements of economic and social development, and gradually solving the problem of the country's excessive debts in public infrastructure construction, social development, ecological construction and environmental protection over the years.
Continue to implement a sound monetary policy, play a good monetary policy of macro-control functions, the comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools, focusing on "pre-adjustment" and "fine-tuning", to promote the reasonable growth of the total amount of money and credit. Strengthening the coordination of credit policy and industrial policy, encouraging and guiding commercial banks to adjust their credit structure, and increasing credit support for promoting structural adjustment, expanding consumption and increasing employment. Expand the proportion of direct financing. Strengthen financial supervision. Improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate on a reasonable and balanced basis.
(2) Strive to increase farmers' income and attach great importance to food security. Coordinate urban and rural development, continue to solve the "three rural" problems as the top priority of economic work, pay more attention to the rural areas, care for farmers, and support agriculture. (1) Implement the strictest system for protecting farmland. Nationwide law enforcement inspections of basic farmland protection will be carried out to stop the indiscriminate occupation and misuse of arable land. (2) Resolutely correct the tendency to neglect grain production, increase the area sown to grain, maintain and improve the comprehensive grain production capacity of the main producing areas, increase investment in the renovation of medium- and low-yield fields and in the construction of existing large-scale commercial grain production bases, and focus investment in small- and medium-sized infrastructure construction in the countryside in favor of the main grain-producing areas. The main marketing areas should also protect basic farmland and maintain the necessary comprehensive grain production capacity. (3) Steadily promote agricultural structural adjustment. Accelerate the pace of quality and regionalization of agricultural products, strengthen agricultural science and technology reserves, breeding of good seeds and promotion of science and technology, and improve the yield and quality of agricultural products. Actively develop animal husbandry. Promote the industrialization of agriculture and the development of leading enterprises. (4) Strive to increase farmers' cash income. Focus on providing good services to farmers working outside the country, increasing the inspection and punishment of delinquent and withholding of migrant workers' wages, and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of migrant workers. State-supported investment in rural project construction should specifically include a provision for farmers' remuneration. Further deepen the reform of the grain circulation system, replacing indirect subsidies through the circulation chain with direct subsidies to grain farmers. Accelerate the reform of rural taxes and fees, abolish all agricultural special production taxes except the tobacco tax, and lower the agricultural tax rate by an average of 1 percentage point. Strive to 2004 per capita net income of farmers in real terms increased by 5%, the burden of taxes and fees than the previous year has been reduced.
(C) to strengthen the guidance and control, curb blind investment and low-level expansion. Adhere to market-oriented, pay more attention to the use of information means to guide, economic means to regulate, legal means to regulate, and supplemented by the necessary administrative means to promote the healthy development of iron and steel, automobile, aluminum, cement and other industries. (1) Accelerate the formulation and improvement of industry development planning and industrial policy, improve and strictly enforce the industry access standards, establish industry information release system, to guide the local and corporate investment direction. (2) Give full play to the market mechanism of survival of the fittest, promote the implementation of joint restructuring of enterprises, accelerate the optimization and upgrading of structure, promote the development of advantageous enterprises and eliminate backward production capacity. (3) Improve the land management system, strict land use management, and no land use shall be approved for construction projects that are not in line with industrial planning and industrial policies, or that fail to meet the industry's access standards. Continue to clean up and reorganize all kinds of development zones. (4) Strengthen the coordination of financial institutions and macro-control departments to guide commercial banks based on industrial policy and industrial development guide directory, the market, there are benefits, in line with the requirements of environmental and ecological protection of production enterprises and construction projects, and actively support; blind investment, low-level expansion of construction projects in the field of the problem is more prominent, and should be strictly scrutinized and lending.
(D) will expand employment in a more prominent position, and strive to create more employment opportunities. Effectively implement the policies and measures set by the central government, and continue to work hard on employment and re-employment. (1) Governments at all levels should establish and improve a system of responsibility for employment and re-employment work, and increase support for re-employment. Improve the system of employment and unemployment statistics. (2) Create favorable conditions in terms of taxation, financing and market access, vigorously develop labor-intensive industries, actively support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and the private economy, and fully tap and give full play to the potential of the tertiary industry to absorb labor. (3) Increase support for the separation of main and auxiliary businesses and the restructuring of auxiliary businesses in large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, and make full use of the non-main business assets, idle assets and effective assets of enterprises that have been closed down and bankrupted, so as to create new jobs and resettle laid-off and displaced workers. (4) Deepen reforms in labor management, household registration and social security systems, and accelerate the cultivation of a unified and standardized labor market throughout the country. Improve the employment service and training system, encourage flexible employment and self-employment, and improve the re-employment assistance system.
(E) promote and expand consumption, and continue to enhance the growth of domestic demand. It is necessary to actively create conditions to further realize the potential of urban and rural residents' consumption demand, and lay a solid foundation for the sustained and stable development of the economy. First, to enhance the consumption ability of low- and middle-income people. It is necessary to promote farmers' income growth through multiple channels, while also striving to increase the incomes of middle- and low-income earners in cities and towns, to improve and strictly enforce minimum wage standards in different regions, and to increase efforts to regulate income redistribution and to support groups in difficulty. Second, vigorously improve the consumer environment. Strengthen rural infrastructure construction and the construction of commodity distribution facilities and commercial outlets, and accelerate the promotion of the equalization of electricity grids and prices in urban and rural areas. Continue to expand the scale of consumer credit. Implementing a hearing system for decision-making on medical service prices and non-compulsory education fees, and rationally determining prices and fees. We will continue to rectify and standardize the market economic order, crack down on counterfeiting and commercial fraud, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. Third, we will cultivate and expand consumer hotspots to meet different levels and diversified consumer demand. Increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing at low and medium prices, establish and improve the low-cost housing system, and promote the trading of housing stock. Encourage residents to consume automobiles. Implement universal telecommunications services and promote telecommunications consumption in rural and remote areas. Continue to improve tourism infrastructure and tourism services, develop sports and cultural industries, and encourage residents to expand tourism, sports and fitness and cultural consumption.
(6) Adhere to the main line of structural adjustment, and effectively change the mode of economic growth. Continue to promote the strategic adjustment of the economic structure and enhance the strength of economic development. Guide all parties to live within their means, to overcome the tendency of pure pursuit of speed, haste, and over-consumption of resources in economic development, and to effectively improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth as the focus of economic work. (1) Accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading in a market-oriented manner. Adopt advanced and applicable technology to transform traditional industries, and vigorously develop the equipment manufacturing industry. Actively promote the industrialization of high and new technologies, and gradually form high-tech industries that master core technologies and possess independent intellectual property rights. (2) Strive to alleviate bottlenecks in economic development. Accelerate the construction of power grids, do a good job of power scheduling, and increase the supply of electricity; accelerate the construction of large-scale coal bases, and intensify the exploration and development of important mineral resources; reasonably allocate transportation capacity, and accelerate the construction of important transportation trunk lines and hubs. (3) In accordance with the requirements of integrating the harmonious development of man and nature, to make economic development compatible with population, resources and the environment, highlighting the conservation and comprehensive utilization of land, water, energy and important raw materials, and accelerating the transformation of water-saving and energy-saving technologies in key industries such as metallurgy, petrochemicals, building materials and papermaking.
Integrate regional development and gradually form a pattern of interaction, complementarity and mutual promotion between the east, center and west. Improve the policies and measures for the development of the western region, continue to strengthen infrastructure and ecological environment construction, and strive to develop the characteristic economy and advantageous industries. It will effectively utilize the location and economic advantages of the central region, and support the central and western regions in accelerating reform and development. It will continue to increase the opening up of the eastern region to the outside world, and enhance the technological level and international competitiveness of industries. It will actively implement the strategy of revitalizing old industrial bases in the northeastern region and other areas, and concentrate its efforts on the adjustment and transformation of key regions, key industries with advantages, and key industries and enterprises. Vigorously promote the economic transformation of resource-oriented cities.
(VII) Increase reforms and investment to promote the development of social undertakings. According to China's basic national conditions and stage of development, focus on accelerating the development of science, education, culture and health undertakings. (1) grasp the disease prevention and control system, public **** health emergencies medical treatment system and health law enforcement and supervision system and other construction. Gradually establish and improve the rural health care system, and do a good job in the pilot work of the new rural cooperative medical care. (2) To make rural education a top priority of educational work, increase investment, and guarantee the right of rural children and youth of school age to receive compulsory education. It will accelerate the "two bases" campaign in the western region, and intensify the reconstruction of dilapidated buildings in rural primary and secondary schools. It will promote the restructuring of higher education disciplines and specialties, vigorously develop vocational education and continuing education, and accelerate the training of talents in short supply. (3) To do a good job in the preparation of medium- and long-term scientific and technological planning. Strengthen the construction of the national innovation system and national scientific and technological infrastructure, and gradually increase the proportion of expenditure on research and experimental development to GDP. Support the development of private science and technology enterprises. (4) Promoting cultural system reform and mechanism innovation, encouraging multi-channel capital investment, and guiding and promoting the coordinated development of cultural undertakings and cultural industries. (5) To do a good job in population and resource and environmental protection.
(H) efforts to expand foreign trade and exports, improve the quality of utilization of foreign capital and water years. Integrate the relationship between domestic economic development and opening up. (1) to further improve the import and export macro-control. Cultivate domestic advantageous brands, improve the technological content and added value of export products. Reform the system of the Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export and improve services for enterprises. Strengthen the balance and management of the import and export of important commodities, and continue to crack down on smuggling and smuggling activities. Improve the early warning system for industrial damage. Strengthen foreign negotiation work and effectively deal with international trade friction. (2) Further improve the investment environment, focus on improving the quality of attracted capital, and combine the use of foreign capital with the restructuring and optimization of domestic industries and the reorganization and transformation of state-owned enterprises. It will study policies and measures to regulate the development of development zones and promote the healthy development of such zones. (3) Strengthen planning and guidance for overseas investment cooperation and promote the establishment of a free trade zone between China and ASEAN. Actively develop China's multinational corporations. Fully implement and gradually improve the arrangement for closer economic and trade relations between the Mainland and China's Hong Kong and Macao regions.
(IX) earnestly implement the deployment of the Third Central Committee of the 16th CPC Central Committee to further deepen various reforms. Taking advantage of the current favorable opportunity of faster economic growth and a more relaxed development environment, we will urgently study and solve the deep-rooted problems of institutions and mechanisms. It is necessary to coordinate the interests of all aspects of the reform process, pay attention to the relationship between the intensity of reform, the speed of development and the degree of social affordability, and push forward the various reforms in a focused and step-by-step manner. (1) Accelerate the adjustment of the layout and structure of the state-owned economy, establish a sound system for the supervision and management of state-owned assets, develop large companies and enterprise groups with international competitiveness, and continue to liberalize and revitalize state-owned small and medium-sized enterprises. Promote the standardized shareholding reform of state-owned enterprises, and develop mixed ownership and non-publicly owned economies. Improve the reform of the management system of telecommunications, electric power, civil aviation and other industries, steadily push forward the reform of postal services, railroads and other industries, and accelerate the pace of marketization of municipal public utilities. (2) Seriously implement the Administrative License Law, and continue to push forward the reform of the administrative examination and approval system. We will do a good job of reforming the investment system, further establishing the status of enterprises as the main body of investment, and allowing private capital to enter infrastructure, public utilities and other industries and fields not prohibited by laws and regulations. (3) Steadily push forward the reform of taxation, finance and price. Gradually implement the transformation of value-added tax (VAT) from production-oriented to consumption-oriented, and reform the export tax rebate mechanism. Improve the regulatory mechanism for financial enterprises, deepen the reform of financial enterprises, and establish a sound internal control mechanism. Select conditional wholly state-owned commercial banks to carry out standardized shareholding reform, and further improve the pilot reform of rural credit unions. Introduce supporting measures for electricity price reform and improve the price formation mechanism for water, oil and natural gas. (4) Accelerating the reform of the social security system and improving the basic pension insurance system, which combines social coordination with individual accounts. Actively explore the reform of the social security system for institutions and organizations.
(J) care for the lives of the masses and maintain social stability. Adhere to the people-oriented, the protection of the people's vital interests as the starting point and finishing point of economic work. From the people's most realistic, most concerned about the most direct problems to start, by all means to help the masses to solve the difficulties and problems in production and life. (1) Continue to consolidate the "Two Guarantees", standardize the work of the minimum subsistence guarantee for urban residents, and appropriately resolve the practical difficulties of urban families in such areas as schooling, medical care, and housing for their children. (2) Increase the development of rural poverty alleviation, expand the scale of food-for-work, and standardize the rural social relief system. It will do a good job of reducing and exempting taxes and fees for disaster areas and poor households, and effectively solve the production and living difficulties of people in disaster areas. (3) Further improve and implement systems and measures for production safety, and resolutely curb the occurrence of major safety accidents. (4) Effectively maintain social stability and crack down on all kinds of criminal offenses. We will do a good job in dealing with letters and visits from the people, and put the work of resolving the people's vital interests on the track of standardization, institutionalization and legalization.
The second part: on the current macroeconomic situation and policy discussion of the review
[Abstract] economic theory on China's economy is overheating the issue of the debate, since the second quarter of 2003 has been endless, the media speculation of the intervention and voices coming from outside the country is to make this hot spot become boisterous. At the end of last year and since the beginning of this year, as the pattern of economic growth for the whole of 2003 has basically become clear, the discussion on this issue has once again become "hot", centering around the macroeconomic trend and macroeconomic policy orientation in 2004. As this discussion will have an impact on both microeconomic activities and macroeconomic policymaking, it is of obvious practical significance to summarize the main views and ideas.
The debate in economic theory about whether China's economy is overheating has been going on since the second quarter of 2003, with media speculation and voices from outside the country making this hotspot even more heated. At the end of last year and since the beginning of this year, as the pattern of economic growth for the whole of 2003 has basically become clear, the discussion on this issue has once again become "hot", centering around the macroeconomic trend and macroeconomic policy orientation in 2004. As this discussion will have an impact on both microeconomic activities and macroeconomic policymaking, it is of obvious practical significance to summarize the main views and ideas.
I. Different Judgments on Whether the Economy Is Overheating
Most of the issues that are hotly debated have to do with a lack of clarity about the meaning or boundaries of the issue. This debate on whether the "economy is overheating" is the same. From the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, there can only be two different judgments as to whether the macroeconomy is "overheating" or "not overheating", i.e., whether aggregate demand (growth) exceeds aggregate supply (growth). At present, however, there are many different views on this issue. The main points of view can be summarized as follows:
1. that there is a tendency or the first signs of an overheating economy
Initially caused by the debate on the issue of overheating of the economy, is that some economists have put forward this point of view. The main basis for this view is that the economy is growing too fast, the price of the means of production; behind it is the money supply and loans increased by too much. Such as the end of July 2003, broad money (M2) grew 20.7% year-on-year, financial institutions, loans grew 23.2% year-on-year, have reached a high level. In this regard, even the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was also held in Washington on July 15, 2003 in the congressional hearings made it clear that China needs to control the growth of the money supply, in order to avoid the emergence of inflation. At the same time, a number of foreign economists studying China's problems have also published articles pointing out the signs of overheating in the Chinese economy.
2. The economy is only partially overheating
Some other economists believe that the economy is only partially overheating, and can not be said to be a comprehensive "overheating" or overall overheating. Localized overheating is mainly manifested in: fixed asset investment growth is too fast (investment growth rate of more than 30%); some industries (such as real estate, iron and steel, building materials, automobiles, etc.) investment and development of overheating; many areas of the development zone construction (enclosure) overheating; local government-led investment overheating. This view may be the more mainstream view. Most foreign newspapers and foreign economists on the Chinese economy also tend to comment on this view, that the current overheating of the Chinese economy is mainly a kind of investment overheating.
Another view of the partial overheating theory is that the oversupply of money has flowed into the asset market, leading to overheating and price increases in the asset market, led by real estate, while the consumer goods market does not suffer from overheating and price increases.
3. The current economic overheating is an "atypical" overheating
Some scholars believe that China's economy has entered a state of overheating, but this overheating is different from the past, and different from the overheating of most countries in the world, and it is a kind of non-inflationary economic overheating.
This point of view, do not generalize the economic overheating, the economic overheating should be distinguished as rational economic "overheating" and irrational economic overheating; to clarify whether the rational economic "overheating" prevails, or irrational economic overheating. It is necessary to find out whether the rational economy is "overheated" or the irrational economy is overheated. Moreover, from the viewpoint of the micro-mechanism of the current economic "overheating", the endogenous market-driven type is the main one, and the exogenous government-driven type is the secondary one, which is the difference between the current economic overheating and the previous ones. On the whole, the current economic "overheating" is both rational and irrational, but the former outweighs the latter; it belongs to both endogenous market-driven economic overheating and exogenous government-driven economic overheating, but the former outweighs the latter; it is both very different from previous economic overheating and somewhat similar to previous economic overheating, but the former outweighs the latter. economic overheating has some of the same, but the former exceeds the latter; therefore, it is an atypical economic overheating that is quite different from previous ones.
However, although this view has some truth, but the "economic overheating" problem of this objective phenomenon of total demand over the growth of aggregate supply, into a kind of subjective, micro-analysis, seems to have deviated from the analysis of macroeconomics track, is not entirely in the discussion of the same problem.
4. that the economy does not exist overheating problem
Do not agree or strongly deny that there is an overheating problem of the economy, there is also a large number of economists. Their main viewpoints and bases are as follows:
---- It is not realistic to say that the economy is overheating now. At the current rate of economic growth and price increases, there is no question of overheating. China has a broad market and investment space, the development of the western part of the country is only in its initial stage, and the revitalization of the old industrial base in the northeast has just begun, so the broad market can make investment growth continue, and China's economy will maintain a high rate of growth.
---- ---- China's economy in this round of expansion, and 10 years ago, the situation is very different. 2003 and 1992 economic expansion mechanism is different; the first three quarters of the economic growth rate has not yet reached the reform and opening up since the average annual level of 9.4%, can not be made on the current economic operation in general, "overheating" of the simple judgment. Simple judgment. The speculation of economic "overheating" is very harmful to the operation of the economy.
---- The basis for judging the economy as overheated does not exist. For example: the economic growth rate is lower than the potential growth capacity; the level of price increases is still low; as an economic barometer of the stock market is in the doldrums, stock prices continue to fall; the short-term rise in prices of production materials is a recovery rise; the growth of final consumption is weak, and the tendency of residents to consume is weak as an important factor restricting economic growth; the supply of funds is not tight, the interest rate is still at the lowest level in history; the rapid growth of loans is the result of a few years ago due to a lack of confidence in the market, the interest rate is still at the lowest level. fast growth is the result of too large a difference between deposits and loans in previous years due to loan-shyness, and it is the restorative growth after the tightening of loans, while the change in money supply (from M0 to M2) leaving the change in loans does not indicate the actual problems of China's economic operation; the high growth of fixed-asset investment has not caused any significant increase in investment prices; the overall pattern of supply and demand in the operation of the national economy is still supply exceeding demand; in addition to the relatively tighter supply of electric power, iron and steel, etc., there has not been any shortage in the supply of funds, and there has not been a significant rise in interest rates. The supply and demand pattern of the national economy as a whole is still greater than demand; except for the relatively tight supply of electricity, steel and so on, there are no obvious "bottleneck" constraints; there are no obvious "bubbles" in the field of economic operation; the real estate, automobile, iron and steel and other industries which are in the high-growth period have coordinated the growth of supply and demand, and the speed of development is high but there is no overheating. Did not cause the economic operation of overheating; individual energy, raw material prices rose sharply in a short period of time for specific reasons, more structural problems, rather than the problem of overheating of the economy.
---- From the economic growth process itself to deny the "economic overheating theory". The reason is: China's economy has entered a new development cycle, relative to the previous years of growth rate of continuous decline, the current rebound is the economy's own development of the regularity of the performance, can not be artificially avoided or even contrary to the momentum; look at the macroeconomic situation can not only focus on a year, a quarter, can not be a short period of time changes in jumping to conclusions, and should be seen in the long term trend; to realize the full well-off in the next 20 years, we must To achieve comprehensive well-being in the next 20 years, it is necessary to maintain an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and some years of high-speed growth is possible and inevitable; can not take the growth of China's economy with a simple analogy with foreign countries, our economic growth in water, there are double-counting problems; the current economic growth in the existence of five synchronization of the phenomenon, including: synchronization of economic growth with the structural adjustment, synchronization of the economic efficiency, synchronization of the growth of state revenue, synchronization of growth of domestic and urban residents' income, and synchronization of the growth of the income of urban residents. Synchronization of urban residents' income growth, and synchronization of domestic economic growth and foreign-related economic growth