On Thursday, the three A-share indexes rose strongly in early trading and remained high in the afternoon. The total turnover of the two cities was 65.438+26.4 billion yuan; The net purchase of northbound funds was 265.438+65.6 million yuan. Disk observation: household goods, electrical appliances and meters, medical care and other sectors were among the top gainers; Aviation, mineral products, electrical equipment and other sectors were among the top losers. At the close: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.98% to 3,673.04 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.23% to 15 147.87 points; The GEM index rose 1.0 1% to 3,459.32 points.
market outlook
On the whole, driven by the "big consumption+big finance" sector mentioned many times recently, the stock index performed well, and the turnover of the two cities also enlarged, exceeding one trillion for 35 consecutive trading days; Northbound funds continued to flow in a large amount of more than 20 billion yuan, and net purchases for seven consecutive days also showed the confidence of overseas capital in China's economy; The recent record high RMB exchange rate also proves the resilience of China's economy. Therefore, at present, the stock index still has certain upward expectations.
After the RRR cut, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC and the Central Economic Work Conference in the middle of this month will determine the economic policy for next year, and the disclosure of financial data in June 5438+065438+ 10 is expected to further clarify the expectations of economic stimulus policies. While policy space enhances risk appetite, we should also pay attention to the "steady growth" orientation that we have mentioned many times!
It is worth noting that steady growth (conducive to large financial consumption), energy revolution (conducive to carbon neutrality and new energy) and strong country in science and technology (conducive to large-scale military industry in science and technology) are more like a "triangle relationship" that needs policy balance but is actually difficult to balance perfectly. Under the background of increasing economic pressure, the urgency of "steady growth" in the short and medium term is greatly enhanced as the year is approaching; When the focus of the market shifts to "steady growth", some growth stocks that have outperformed the market's high valuation may temporarily fall behind, and the market style may also show a pattern of "big strength and small weakness". However, we still emphasize that the long-term goal of the "energy revolution" will not change, but it may be weakened in stages and temporarily give way to "steady growth", such as diluting measures such as limiting production and electricity to smooth the supply pressure; At the same time, the strategy of "strengthening the country through science and technology" may be relatively independent. After all, this is the key to the transformation of China's industrial structure and even China's economic future; This is why we have repeatedly stressed that we still look at the mainstream track of these high prosperity in the medium and long term, but we may need to wait for the "steady growth" policy to come to an end in the short term; Just different from the past, the main battlefield of this round of "science and technology power" is more concentrated in the fields of hard technology, new energy, new infrastructure, high-end manufacturing and large military industry, from "virtual" to "real".
Operation strategy
In the specific direction, we continue to emphasize two key clues: first, the "big consumption, big finance" and other sectors where the market is expected to improve marginally under the change of "steady growth" policy; Second, although there are differences in the short term, it is still necessary to use the medium and long-term thinking to adjust the position allocation by using the three high-prosperity mainstream tracks of "military industry, carbon neutrality and big technology".
Zhao, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, has the practice certificate number S02606 140600 14.