Recently busy at work, I have long resumed work on 2/3, because the foreign market is not rest, and then our domestic both securities and futures are officially opened on 2/3.
So these days, whether it's on the investment side or on the auto industry side, which I love, I'm still paying 120% attention, and I'm now acting as a bystander and a strategic investor in the auto manufacturing industry, with a little bit of a media attribute to see to what extent the auto manufacturing industry is going to be affected due to this Xin Guan epidemic.
I can tell you the conclusions first, because I'm going to share the results of my own investment strategy team's research, later.
The conclusion is that the auto industry is taking an unprecedented hit, and that the impact of this epidemic will drag the auto industry (both on the manufacturing side and on the aftermarket side) on its heels until about September this year, with an optimistic estimate that September will be a little bit better, with cars selling a little bit better, but that doesn't mean a full recovery. Because the epidemic has not only hit the domestic production chain hard, the new crown has been popularized in the world, and you can even say that we are about to EOP, and foreign countries are about to SOP status.
All the raw materials for commodities related to the automotive market: hot rolls, cold rolls, rubber, plastics, glass, etc., will be subjected to an unprecedented price suppression.
All about the automotive stocks, whether domestic or foreign, are not recommended to bearish, in this year before September to maintain bearish logic.
In fact, a lot of people have countered me that the automotive industry will immediately have a vengeful rebound, I said there will be, but not immediately, as early as September may usher in a rebound in automotive consumption, or cautiously optimistic predictions.
You have to know that from a macroeconomic point of view, this market is not the only one alone you car this commodity, the total productivity of the national, the total consumption power, in this lost two months can not be compensated for in this lost two months, the industry chain has experienced a great escape, hurt everywhere is gap, some of the capital chain breaks of the company went out of business directly, and simply not even the retaliatory rebound of the time to last! Macroeconomics is like a train, the continuity of the time nodes lead to you sitting through the station is not to make up the ticket, to make up can also be, you need to spend a greater cost (several times or even a dozen times) to save. Just like the central bank's recent wave of big water, finally the stock market opened 8% lower to save back, then what? I'm not going to say much about the rest, because retail investors (leeks) are telling me that China's economy is recovering and the bull market has arrived, lol.
Well, the following opportunities, the purpose is to let the friends who see the understanding of the next time, in this period of economic restoration to grasp the real core points of the automotive industry can do investment reference.
Below I put my company's macro strategy team's new energy research report, a few of them (of course, can not post all) posted. The style of writing may not be my style of writing, are the results of my staff's research:
New energy battery raw materials prospects and opportunities - nickel
One of the world's electric vehicles in the future plays a major role in the Tesla first localized under the leadership of almost all of these Europe and the United States electric car company production of automobiles when China has a complete industrial chain for new energy vehicles, which is not available in any other country in the world.
As stated in the 2018 Oil Price report, "China indirectly controls the electric vehicle market through its near monopoly of electric vehicle battery production." Two years ago, Oilprice magazine (Oilprice) wrote: "European car production may soon be moving to China in such large numbers that the European market should start to feel uneasy about it." "This will have a significant impact on the region. Companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Renault have long been the economic backbone of the region."
At the time, two-thirds of the world's lithium-ion battery supply originated in China. Lithium-ion batteries are the most commonly used batteries in standard electric vehicles. "In addition, these batteries are extremely valuable, accounting for a truly staggering 40% of the value of a car. As things stand, Europe is far from being able to match China in terms of lithium-ion battery production. In fact, the entire continent is currently estimated to have only a 1% market share." "It would be easy for European car companies to move the production of electric cars to China."
That is, it should come as no surprise that reports this week indicated that in order for Elon Musk to make good on his promise to make electric cars affordable and achievable for the mass market and the average consumer, China would need to be involved. Once again, the problem comes down to batteries. This time, however, the problem is not lithium, but cobalt.
According to Reuters, "Electric carmakers typically use nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) or nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries in passenger cars because of their higher energy density, which is crucial in determining how far an electric car can travel on a single charge." However, cobalt is one of the main reasons why electric car batteries are so expensive, accounting for 40 percent of the car's value.
Tesla has shifted much of their production to China, and it is at one of the company's Chinese factories that they are gradually moving away from their reliance on cobalt. Reuters reported this week that "Tesla is in advanced stages of talks to use cobalt-free CATL batteries in cars made at its Chinese factory. Cobalt is one of the most expensive metals in electric car batteries." Instead, the factory will use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which will be "'double-digit' cheaper than existing batteries."
Tesla stock price
The opportunity for the future lies not in expensive cobalt, but in nickel, which is essential to all raw materials for automotive batteries, and even in the future the vast majority of battery makers will be making batteries with higher amounts of nickel and lower amounts of cobalt.
Two, nickel with platinum, palladium, passivation can absorb a large amount of hydrogen, the smaller the particle size, the greater the absorption! Important salts of nickel are nickel sulfate and nickel chloride. Similar to iron, cobalt, at room temperature to water and air are more stable, can resist alkaline corrosion, so the laboratory can use nickel crucible to melt alkaline substances. Nickel is soluble in dilute acid, and iron is different, cobalt and nickel with concentrated nitric acid reacted violently, with dilute nitric acid reaction is slower.
Domestic well-known enterprises: Zhongjin Lingnan, TISCO stainless steel, China Nickel Resources, Guiyan Platinum, Grimmie, Kelilong, Jinchuan Group, Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals Industry (Group) Fukang Smelter, Xinjiang Xinxin, Jianglithium Science and Technology, Hanking Group and so on.
Famous foreign enterprises: Russia's Norilsk Nickel Company (MMCNorilskNickel), Brazil's Vale Corporation (ValeSA), the United Kingdom's Strata Corporation (XstrataPlc), Anglo American Resources (AngloAmericanPlc), Australia's BHP Billiton Group ( BHPBillitonLtd, Australia's Minara ResourcesLtd, Japan's SumitomoMetalMiningCo, France's ErametSA, Canada's Sherritt InternationalCorp. SherrittInternationalCorp)
Three, nickel has very good plasticity, corrosion resistance and magnetic properties! Therefore, it is mainly used in steel, nickel-based alloys, electroplating and batteries and other fields, widely used in aircraft, radar and other military manufacturing, civil machinery manufacturing and electroplating industry.
Specific uses include:
1, because nickel has a better corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, rust and other properties! Therefore it is widely used in the field of steel such as stainless steel and alloy steel. In stainless steel applications in the largest consumption of nickel, nickel-containing stainless steel can resist both atmospheric, steam and water corrosion, but also acid, alkali and salt corrosion.
2, nickel participation can improve the strength of the alloy just, to maintain its good plasticity and toughness. Nickel-containing alloy steel is mainly used in the manufacture of chemical production of acid-resistant towers, medical equipment, daily necessities and for the transformation of bridges, repair warships and other machinery manufacturing, transportation and military industry.
3, used for electroplating, in steel and other metal materials on the substrate covered with a durable, corrosion-resistant surface layer, its anti-corrosion than galvanized layer. Electroplated nickel processing volume is second only to electroplated zinc and ranked second, and its consumption accounts for about 10% of the total nickel production.
4, used as a chemical power supply, the production of nickel-metal hydride batteries, nickel-cadmium batteries raw materials. The world's nickel-metal hydride batteries are mainly produced by Chinese and Japanese companies, accounting for more than 95% of global production, of which more than 70% are produced in China, China's nickel-metal hydride battery companies mainly include Chaoba, Haopeng, BYD, HuanYu, KeliYuan, LiKeXing, SanPu, DISON, SANJIE, QUANTITY ENERGY, GREEP and so on. Japanese companies Panasonic, Yuasa, Sanyo has transferred the production of small nickel-metal hydride batteries to China. HEV with large nickel-metal hydride batteries are mainly produced in Japan, the production of companies mainly for Primearth Electric Vehicle Energy (PEVE) and Sanyo Electric, due to the merger of Panasonic and Sanyo, and Panasonic's Hunan plant sold to China's Keli Yuan. As a result, large nickel-metal hydride batteries have been produced mainly by Panasonic.
5, nickel composite materials can be used for petrochemical hydrogenation and synthesis of methane when the catalyst, the advantage is not easy to be H2S, S02 poisoned. Nickel compounds can make pigments and dyes. Nickel can also be made into nickel ferrite and nickel-zinc ferrite and other new ceramics, transformer cores and radio antennas. Very fine nickel powder, commonly used in the chemical industry as a catalyst. Nickel has magnetic properties, can be attracted by magnets. Aluminum, cobalt and nickel alloy can be used to make electromagnetic cranes.
Four, nickel is a basic component of batteries, including those installed on top of cell phones, laptops and hybrid cars. Based on the market's optimistic outlook for the long-term battery market, many large mining companies have now joined the ranks of resource competition.
BHP Billiton (BHP) continues to retain its Nickel?West nickel project in western Australia, saying Nickel?West shows potential for high returns. Glencore is also engaged in nickel mining, and thus to produce metal by-products. Indonesia as a nickel mining country, has become the focus of attention of many mining companies. Last year, Indonesia's nickel production led the world, and Pacific?Rim?Cobalt?Corporation is currently carrying out an exploration program in Indonesia to actively develop the country's nickel resources. Indonesia and China are not far apart, and with China now dominating the electric vehicle market, neighboring countries are eager to provide the necessary raw materials for China's electric vehicle industry, and Indonesia naturally does not want to let go of this opportunity. In fact, Indonesia's goal is no longer just to be a resource base. Indonesia's Industry Minister Airlangga Hartarto has proposed to build Indonesia into a regional manufacturing powerhouse, turning the country's raw materials into consumer goods. This move may provide an opportunity for mining companies that have already begun to open up the Indonesian market.
Since 2019 nickel ore by the internal and external market capital vigorously speculation, after entering a value reasonable range, and I think the price is not very high, down the space is not big.
According to my own team's commodities and industry macro research report of some material, I can give a buy nickel (Shanghai nickel contract, London LME nickel contract) commodities for medium and long term investment in a point of view, in the recovery period of a few months after this, the new energy vehicles will explode out of the second spring, and in the automotive development to occupy a major position in the aftermath.
London LME Nickel Index
Finally, to give a few words to friends from all walks of life who are suffering from the epidemic recently:
Maybe your own economy is suffering from a serious threat, may be that you have nothing in this epidemic, but please find the direction of the rebound suitable for yourself in desperate circumstances, Nietzsche has a famous saying: "What doesn't kill me only makes me stronger." Just as our human skeleton grows stronger under weight and pressure, this is a form of "anti-fragility"! How to survive this black swan and find traces of spring in the midst of winter, you can refer to the above suggestions and ideas.
This article comes from the author of the automobile home car, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.