November 29, the new crown antigen detection plate opened up 2%, once rose more than 8% in the afternoon, closing up 7.5%, more than the real estate sector 7.17% at the top of the list. The plate concept stocks collectively red, closing Novizen rose, heat King biology, Oriental biology rose more than 10%, Yafei Long, Wantai biology, nine medical, Lizhu Group, based on the eggs of biological and other concepts of a number of companies rose more than 5%.
From the data point of view, the rebound of the new crown antigen detection plate from October 12 onwards has begun. In about a month's time, the new crown antigen detection concept index (8841559) rose from 1607.14 points to yesterday's highest 2232.93 points, up 38.9%; during the same period, the new crown pneumonia detection concept index (8841315) also rose from a low of 1,167.01 points to 1,543.44 points, an increase of 32.26%. Not only the detection sector, including the new crown detection, diagnosis and treatment concept stocks of the CSI Biomedical Index (930726) rose 8.79 percent in 60 days.
The market point of view that on November 21, "the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control of nucleic acid testing implementation measures" and other four documents on antigen detection to regulate the new application scenarios. According to the reporter combed through, a number of listed companies also in the near future or issued the latest new crown antigen detection progress announcement, or in the investor exchange platform to respond to the relevant business issues. When the market attention and stock prices are warming up, some people are beginning to be vigilant, this is a short-lived market sentiment or have a long-term market prospects? The same as the plate concept stock, and how many companies have been real business, and how many still remain at the level of the concept?
Antigen concepts make a comeback
Toward the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, the new crown testing concept sector experienced a wave of sharp rise and fall, and then shocked to the downside.
On November 21, 2022, the State Council responded to the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak joint prevention and control mechanism integrated group issued four documents, namely, "the implementation of nucleic acid testing for the prevention and control of the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak", "the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak risk area delineation and control program", "the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak home isolation and medical observation guidelines", "the new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak home health monitoring guidelines".
Shortly after the release of the documents, a number of brokerage firms said they were optimistic about structural opportunities in the direction of epidemic prevention and control, including cold and antipyretic standing medicines, new crown special drugs, new crown vaccines, antigen detection and other directions, and investors have flocked to listed companies with related concepts, either to confirm the authenticity of the business or to confirm the performance.
According to incomplete statistics of the reporter, only on November 21 so far in the SZSE interactive platform and SSE E interactive containing the keyword "antigen" questions up to 2585, the concept of the company in the interactive platform to answer the rhythm is also significantly higher, and many companies have taken the initiative to mention their products have been certified, as well as the convenience of antigen detection.
For example, Heat Vision Bio said on the interactive platform, the company's products have been certified by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the new crown antigen detection products can be sold in the U.S. and recognized the U.S. FDAEUA certification of the countries and regions; Huaren Pharmaceuticals said that the company's new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) antigen detection kits to obtain the European Union's CE certification, the temporary U.S. FDA has not been authorized to obtain the relevant certification. The company's new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) antigen detection kit (colloidal gold method) was approved in March 2022 in China, and the test results can be produced in 15 minutes, which is convenient and fast; Lepu Pharmaceuticals said that the company's new coronavirus antigen detection kit can be used for home The new coronavirus antigen test kit can be used for self-testing at home, which is easy to operate, convenient and fast, and the test results can be out in 15 minutes.
Not only that, November 21 to the present nine days, only the Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies issued a package of new coronary antigen test kit to obtain registration, CE certification, sales authorization, including as many as 25 announcements, self-testing products to obtain the Russian registration of the announcement
There are also companies that said there is a business, but the performance has not yet been reflected. For example, Mind Bio (002932.SZ) although the company said the company has a home version of the new crown antigen test reagents, but the company's new crown antigen test kits by the domestic/foreign epidemics and the local government epidemic prevention policies have a greater impact on domestic and international demand in the second and third quarters of this year compared to the first quarter of the decline. Uning Wei also said the company launched the new crown antigen products, is still in the sales promotion stage.
Market prospects under the performance test
Antigen industry chain upstream mainly includes antigen antibody, NC film, sampling swabs and pipette dropper, test paper, etc., in the middle and lower reaches is mainly antigen detection test reagents. A number of organizations have expressed optimistic about the prospects of the antigen detection market.
Central Pacific Securities believes that, such as the domestic antigen self-test kit formally liberalized, according to grassroots research, the current domestic new crown antigen self-test kit factory unit price of about 1.5 U.S. dollars, the frequency of use of reference to the overseas policy in accordance with the minimum frequency assumption of 2 times a month, according to the total population of 1.4 billion population base calculations, with reference to the central bank's latest U.S. dollar / RMB exchange rate of 7 to calculate the new crown antigen self-test kit is expected to reach 280 million yuan a month market size is expected to be the first time. The single-month scale of the market is expected to reach 28 billion yuan. If you take into account the Chinese residents, enterprises have the habit of stockpiling, the new crown antigen test product procurement demand of 56 billion yuan in a single month, the annual demand will reach 600 billion.
International Securities also said, optimistic about the direction of epidemic prevention and control, including cold and antipyretic standing drugs, new crown special drugs, new crown vaccine, antigen detection and other directions of the structural opportunities, it is recommended to pay attention to the relevant product research and development, the release of progress. Bullish on the performance of enterprises affected by the epidemic in the previous period of sustained repair.
Founder Securities said, the domestic clear use of the scene + repeated overseas outbreaks, antigen detection demand is expected to rebound, "antigen + nucleic acid" system to build a solid barrier for the domestic epidemic prevention. Guoxin Medicine believes that the antigen detection plate as a whole soared, pay attention to the release of demand for antigen detection under the precision of the epidemic.
State Securities also mentioned that, according to the prevention and control of the implementation of the measures and risk area delineation program and other policies, combined with the domestic part of the epidemic areas, the new crown antigen detection reagents or will become an important supplemental tool for epidemic prevention, corresponding to the professional, non-professional scenarios space for 11.2 ~ 26 billion yuan and 15 billion yuan. New crown antigen products in overseas regions, there is still seasonal demand, some scenes new foreign access qualification, is expected to contribute to the year's orders.
According to CITIC Securities statistics, there are dozens of listed companies involved in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the antigen industry chain. With the increasingly fierce competition in the market, the new crown testing profit space is gradually compressed, the concept of stock soaring behind the company's performance is "over the top"?
Taking yesterday's 20% rise in Novozymes as an example, from 2019 to 2021 and the first three quarters of this year, the company's revenues were 268 million yuan, 1.564 billion yuan, 1.87 billion yuan and 2.305 billion yuan, respectively, and net net profit of 0.026 billion yuan, 822 million yuan, 678 million yuan and 750 million yuan. However, by 2022, the company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters slipped 14 percentage points year-on-year to 72.8%, and net profit margin slipped 10.2 percentage points year-on-year to 32.5%; in the third quarter, the company's net net attributable profit of $136 million fell 14.25% year-on-year, and deducted $122 million in net profit, a year-on-year decline of 19.73%.
And then Hua Shengchang, 2022 three-quarterly report shows that the company's main revenue of 467 million yuan, down 15.38% year-on-year; attributable net profit of 95.9276 million yuan, down 26.62% year-on-year; deduction of non-net profit of 87.460 million yuan, down 24.75% year-on-year; which in the third quarter of 2022, the company's main revenue of 147 million yuan in a single quarter, down 24.48%; single-quarter net profit of 34.5928 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.82%.
*ST Kehua 2022 three-quarter performance decline is even more significant, the company's main revenue of 1.579 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 57.63%; the mother of the net profit of 36.8512 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 94.95%; deducted net profit of 34.2406 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 95.27%; which the third quarter of 2022, the company's single-quarter main revenue of 676 million yuan, down 49.05% year-on-year; single-quarter net profit of -9.5798 million yuan, down 103.83% year-on-year; single-quarter non-deductible net profit of -10.5413 million yuan, down 104.2% year-on-year.
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