Into the "double control of energy consumption" focus, short-term operational impact
"Opinions" emphasized: China will continue to strengthen the intensity of energy co
Into the "double control of energy consumption" focus, short-term operational impact
"Opinions" emphasized: China will continue to strengthen the intensity of energy consumption and the total amount of dual-control. According to the opinion, adhere to the energy development strategy of energy conservation priority, strict control of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions intensity, reasonable control of total energy consumption, the overall establishment of total carbon dioxide emissions control system.
From this point of view, China's "dual-control of energy consumption" policy will be long-term persistence, the coal chemical industry is looking forward to, the local government in the implementation of this policy, do not take a "one-size-fits-all" and "campaign-style" carbon reduction behavior. The local government should not adopt a "one-size-fits-all" and "campaign-style" carbon reduction behavior, so that the coal chemical enterprises or transformation and upgrading, or orderly withdrawal.
In fact, this year, some places to implement "one-size-fits-all" and "campaign-style" carbon reduction action, "energy consumption double control" policy continues to tend to Tighten the code, coal chemical enterprises are very hurt. For example, a large coal chemical company since this year has been repeatedly affected by the local government's dual-control policy, in March by the local government requires enterprises to significantly reduce the amount of electricity every day, after the power limit enterprises can not meet the minimum load of electricity demand, after communicating with no avail, was forced to stop in accordance with the government's requirements. This enterprise around the other three enterprises also suffered the same fate, one after another forced to stop production. Early September this year and energy consumption indicators run out of reasons, was required to stop production. This is open and shut down, intermittent, the original benefit is not good, and now it is even worse.
August 12 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "2021 first half of the barometer of the completion of dual-control targets for energy consumption in various regions," showing that China, including Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi and other 9 provinces (autonomous regions) in the first half of the energy intensity instead of decreasing, listed as a red level of warning; Guangdong, Fujian, Yunnan and other 8 provinces (autonomous regions) in the control of the total amount of energy consumption has been listed as a red level of warning. As a result, since the third quarter, the provinces and regions mentioned above have struck a thunderous blow to restrict the "two high" industries. And because the 4 quarter is the traditional peak season of energy consumption, those first half of the energy consumption of dual control targets completed better provinces (regions), also dare not take it lightly, also began to increase the inclusion of the "two high" list of industrial control. For a while, almost all coal chemical projects are restricted, the status of the industry a bleak, the industry's confidence in the development of setbacks again.
Around the "one-size-fits-all, campaign-style" carbon reduction "way, seriously restricting the survival and development of the coal chemical industry, to the operation of enterprises, the normal development of the economy has brought great negative impact. The most direct impact is that some places on the coal chemical enterprises to limit the supply of coal, reduce the power supply, to the normal operation of the coal chemical enterprises to bring great trouble, resulting in a number of enterprises in the shutdown, semi-suspension of the state, the entire modern coal chemical industry is facing the life and death of the big test.
Included in the "two high projects", the long-term development of the future
"Opinions" emphasized: resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects. The company's main goal is to provide the best quality products and services to its customers. Without the inclusion of the relevant areas of national industrial planning, no new construction and expansion of oil refining and new ethylene, paraxylene, coal-based olefin projects. Reasonably control the scale of coal-to-oil and gas production capacity. The company's goal is to improve the energy consumption and emission standards of its projects.
It is not difficult to see, "Opinions" will be the work of coal as "two high projects", and directly point to the coal olefin, coal oil and gas name. And the State Council in the "program" also clearly required: resolutely curb the "two high" project blind development. Take strong measures to "two high" projects to implement list management, classification and disposal, dynamic monitoring.
China's coal chemical industry, the traditional coal chemical industry has long been classified as two high projects to limit the development. For example, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2021 onwards, no longer approved coke (charcoal), calcium carbide, PVC, synthetic ammonia (urea), methanol, ethylene glycol and other "two high" projects; Guangdong Province will be more than 10,000 tons of annual energy consumption of coal chemical industry, coking projects into the "two high" project management ledger.
China's modern coal chemical industry generally refers to four industrial paths, including coal-to-olefin, coal-to-oil, coal-to-gas, and coal-to-ethylene glycol. Among them, coal-to-olefin is one of the best-performing paths in modern coal chemical industry in recent years, and the fastest growing. According to statistics, in 2020, the total domestic coal olefin production capacity reached 11.2 million tons/year, and the capacity is still being further released. Especially in the first half of this year, by the impact of soaring market prices, many companies really earned a hand. But this modern coal chemical industry in the field of "star" project, "opinions" stipulates that "shall not be new construction, alteration and expansion", meaning that the coal olefin "stock of projects" can continue to keep running! The "Opinion" stipulates that "no new construction, alteration and expansion", which means that the "stock project" of coal-to-olefin can still continue to operate, but no "incremental" project is allowed in the future. As a result, the development prospects of the coal olefin industry has been very clear, trying to re-examine the idea of coal olefin can be eliminated.
"Opinions" requires "reasonable control of the scale of coal oil and gas production capacity", in fact, China's coal oil and gas production capacity is not large, coal oil production capacity of 9.21 million tons / year, the scale of coal gas production capacity of 5.1 billion cubic meters / year, due to the high investment in coal oil and gas projects, the poor economy, the risk of large-scale, enterprise development will Generally not strong, some previously approved projects are basically in a wait-and-see state, some even do not intend to continue to promote, even if not control, but also less willing to do such projects.
Coal supply "lack of quantity and high price", the enterprise generally "can not eat"
"Opinions" put forward to accelerate the pace of coal reduction, "the 14th Five-Year" period of strict control over the amount of coal, "the 14th Five-Year" period of strict control over the amount of coal. The "14th Five-Year Plan" period to strictly control the growth of coal consumption, the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to gradually reduce. This indicates that the "peak" of coal consumption in China will come in 2025.
This year, due to the sudden tightening of coal supply, coal chemical enterprises generally "can not eat".
Since the third quarter of this year, China's more than 20 provinces and cities suddenly broke out of the "pull the gate to limit power" crisis, the main reason behind is the lack of coal.
China's coal chemical industry has become the most coal-consuming industry after coal power, is the second largest user of coal. According to statistics, China's total annual coal consumption of 4.08 billion tons, of which 3.4 billion tons of power coal consumption, accounting for 83% of the total coal consumption; the remaining 17% of the coal chemical industry is mainly coal, about 500 million tons.
In some coal-rich regions, the development of the coal chemical industry is much faster than the release of coal production capacity, making the original rich coal production suddenly become nervous. To the east of Mongolia, for example, here is China's lignite main producing areas, rich reserves, the past coal cheap than the White Lai, 2005, the local lignite price of only a few tens of dollars per ton, but now more than 300 yuan / ton. As a result of a number of large-scale coal chemical projects and coal power projects, the region's coal tensions have persisted for many years, whether it is a power generation project, or coal chemical projects are due to the lack of coal and "half-dead," due to the coal "lack of quantity and price," making the local coal chemical projects due to the lack of coal days are very difficult to live. Project due to lack of coal days are very bad, production load is difficult to ensure that enterprises continue to lose money; and coal power projects can not be normal power generation due to lack of coal, some pithead power plants are difficult to protect the demand for coal. It is understood that this is by no means a unique situation in the east of Mongolia, such as Shaanxi Yulin, Shenmu, Inner Mongolia, Ordos and other places to pull the coal trucks lined up long lines, a number of coal-rich areas of our country coal supply exceeds the demand for a tense situation.
Since the second half of this year, the international crude oil prices have been high, the domestic bulk chemical commodities remain high, the coal chemical industry constitutes a great benefit, almost all the coal chemical projects have money to earn, high oil prices to support the coal chemical industry start rate increased significantly. So, the coal chemical industry enterprises around the full throttle to seize the market opportunity, so that the coal chemical industry start rate is much higher than in the past few years, the coal chemical industry on the demand for coal is more robust. According to estimates, 2021 coal chemical industry with coal or an increase of 50 million tons, an average monthly growth of more than 4 million tons. It has been estimated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, if the oil price has been at a relatively high level, the amount of coal used for coal chemical industry in 2025 will increase by about 120 million tons compared to the end of 2020.
Recently, the state is increasing the intervention of the coal market. October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission to alleviate the current energy crisis launched a vigorous release of coal production capacity, a stable increase in coal production, to guide the return of coal prices to a reasonable level of eight measures, the coal tension situation began to improve, all over the "pulling the gate to limit power" Has improved. But the "headache, headache, foot" phased measures can not be a success, the relevant departments in the consideration of the total control of coal, if you ignore the coal chemical industry on the rigid demand for coal, coal, "the amount of lack of high price" phenomenon will continue to exist for a long time.