Data release
GDP up 10.3% in 2010
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday released data showing that China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010 was initially estimated to be 3,979.83 billion yuan, or 10.3 percent more than the previous year at comparable prices, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.1 percent from the previous year.
Quarter by quarter, China's economy grew by 11.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2010, 10.3% in the second quarter, 9.6% in the third quarter and 9.8% in the fourth quarter. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 404.97 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3%; the added value of the secondary industry was 186.48 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 171.05 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5%.
Agricultural production grew steadily and industrial production grew steadily. Investment maintains rapid growth, consumption grows steadily and rapidly, and the total amount of import and export grows rapidly. 2010 social investment in fixed assets amounted to 2,781.4 billion yuan, an increase of 23.8% over the previous year, with a growth rate of 6.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous year, and a real growth of 19.5% after deducting the price factor; the total amount of retail sales of consumer goods for the whole year was 1,545.4 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4% over the previous year, and a real growth of 14.8% after deducting the price factor. The total retail sales of consumer goods for the year was 154554 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4% over the previous year, net of price factors, an actual increase of 14.8%; the total annual import and export amounted to 2972.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.7% over the previous year, of which exports increased by 31.3%.
CPI 2010 rose 3.3%
The National Bureau of Statistics yesterday released data, in 2010 China's consumer prices (CPI) rose 3.3% over the previous year. Among them, the CPI rose 4.6 percent in December, a decline in the rate of increase.
Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said at a briefing by the State Council Information Office here that market prices rose year-on-year in 2010, with food prices rising at a larger rate. The annual CPI rose 3.3 percent year-on-year, including 3.2 percent in urban areas and 3.6 percent in rural areas. the CPI rose 4.6 percent year-on-year in December, and 0.5 percent year-on-year.
By category, food rose 7.2 percent, tobacco, alcohol and supplies rose 1.6 percent, health care and personal goods rose 3.2 percent, recreation, education, cultural goods and services rose 0.6 percent, housing rose 4.5 percent, clothing fell 1.0 percent, transportation and communications fell 0.4 percent, and household equipment, supplies and maintenance services were flat.
Also according to statistics, the annual factory prices of industrial products (PPI) rose 5.5% year-on-year, up 5.9% in December, up 0.7% from a year earlier. Purchase prices of raw materials, fuel and power for the year rose 9.6 percent year-on-year, 9.5 percent in December and 1.1 percent from a year earlier.
Problems
The treatment of inflation multi-pronged approach has a long way to go
In the face of inflationary pressures continue to accelerate upward and the second half of 2010 CPI's super-expected growth in the macro-control efforts continue to increase. November 20 last year, the General Office of the State Council issued a "national 16", requiring all localities and relevant departments to further improve the price control and supervision, stabilize market prices, and effectively protect the basic life of the masses; local governments at all levels have also taken measures such as subsidies, price limits, and so on, for the public's "rice bags "and" food basket "to reduce the burden.
In addition to a variety of price stability control measures, the central bank for liquidity management is also increasingly strict. 20, financial institutions in 2011 for the first time on the deposit reserve. Before that, the central bank has raised the reserve requirement ratio for six consecutive times and raised interest rates twice. Currently, the one-year term deposit rate has risen from 2.25% to 2.75%, even so, relative to the 3.3% CPI increase in view, save money in the bank is still a loss business.
Tian Yong said that now is actually still negative interest rates, and interest rate hikes to accumulate to a certain magnitude in order to have a more pronounced impact on inflation, "one or two interest rate hikes may not have a great impact, and the impact on the suppression of consumption is limited."
Regulate the structure to avoid too rapid a fall in economic growth
Some experts believe that, from the current situation, the economic growth rate fell quarter by quarter in 2010, the economic growth rate continues to slow down significantly and is not appropriate, attention should be paid to allow economic growth to gradually stabilize, to avoid too rapid a fall in economic growth, which is one of the main tasks of the regulation.
In the GDP growth rate reached 10.3% at the same time, the price growth rate in 2010 also reached a higher range of 3.3%, once again triggered concerns about inflation. Wang Tongsan, director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that "we are now facing a very large number of problems, the most urgent and realistic is how to curb the problem of inflation, which is directly related to the lives of the general public."
"In 2011, how local governments can really shift their focus to adjusting the structure and changing the way of work, really increase investment in research and development, and increase investment in human capital is the key to policy transformation." Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the NDRC, said.
Data Interpretation
Perfect answer sheet GDP growth of 10.3 percent
As a key year for responding to the international financial crisis, maintaining stable and relatively fast economic development, and accelerating the transformation of the mode of economic development, what exactly does the 10.3 percent economic growth in 2010 mean?
"In 2010, China effectively consolidated and expanded the results of its response to the impact of the international financial crisis (Forum News), and the national economy is running in a generally favorable situation." Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said. For China's economy, 2010 was extremely extraordinary, in the face of the complex and changing international and domestic economic situation, how to adjust the structure and change the mode of the process to maintain stable and rapid economic growth, need to overcome more difficulties and solve more problems. Against this background, the 10.3 percent economic growth rate is undoubtedly a satisfactory answer.
Zheng Xinli, executive vice president of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, talked about three significant "highlights" in his assessment of the macro economy in 2010:
First, the economy has shifted from an upturn to a normal track of stable and relatively fast development. Second, the endogenous growth mechanism plays a major role in driving economic growth, non-state investment growth rate exceeded the growth rate of state-owned investment in total urban investment has begun to play a leading role. Thirdly, there is a resumption of growth in exports, which declined by 16% in 2009 and grew by 31.3% from January to December 2010, which is an increase from 2008 in addition to recovering lost ground.
Control effect CPI fell for the first time at the end of the year
National Bureau of Statistics data released by the National Bureau of Consumer Prices for the whole year of 2010 rose by 3.3% year-on-year. consumer prices rose by 4.6% year-on-year in December, up 0.5% from a year earlier. From the monthly year-on-year rate of increase, CPI continued to rise throughout the year, from 1.5% at the beginning of 2010 has risen to a high of 5.1% in November, while the 4.6% year-on-year rate of increase in December is the first time after six consecutive months of increase in the first decline. The elimination of tailwinds and the effects of price controls were the main reasons for the fall in the CPI rate in December.
Jiang Chao, head of macro quantities at Guotai Junan, believes that the regulation of vegetable prices from late November is an important reason for the slight fall in food prices.
Monthly data from the Ministry of Agriculture's "National Wholesale Price Index for Agricultural Products" showed that both the total wholesale price index for agricultural products and the wholesale price index for "vegetable basket" products fell to different degrees in December.
While the CPI rate fell in December 2010, the 2011 CPI has continued to trend higher.
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, director of the Applied Statistics Research Center Xu Guoxiang believes that the impact of extreme weather, to a large extent, will push up the level of new price increases in January, and the overlapping effect of the tail factor is likely to lead to the January CPI once again set a new record.
Looking ahead
Confident to keep prices within target range
National Bureau of Statistics chief Ma Jiantang said the slowdown in domestic consumer price growth in December last year meant that a series of policy measures taken by China since the fourth quarter to increase supply, regulate demand, safeguard circulation, regulate the market and increase subsidies for low-income groups had achieved relatively obvious results. The government's response to the crisis has been very positive.
Ma said the weight of food in the CPI depends on the proportion of residents' expenditures on food, which is not subject to human will. "With the improvement of living standards, the proportion of food in China's residents' consumption expenditures will certainly continue to decline, and the weight of food in the price survey will also decline. But it has a long-term process." He emphasized that a comprehensive analysis of all factors, the upward pressure on prices in China in 2011 is still relatively large, which can not be taken lightly.
From the domestic factors, Ma Jiantang believes that, taking into account the previous period to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis in China's cumulative money supply is more, the CPI in 2010 on 2011 to bring the tail factor is expected to reach about 2.6 percentage points, as well as the recent rise in domestic labor, land resource costs and other factors, this year's upward pressure on prices should not be underestimated. The international side, following the second half of 2010 since the international food prices in the main food-producing areas of extreme weather, high demand for food and speculation and other factors intertwined under the influence of the rising, 2011 international agricultural market may still continue to rise.
Ma Jiantang emphasized that we should see the current also exists to control this year's price increases within the expected target favorable conditions. Grain prices are the basis of all prices, China's grain harvest for seven consecutive years to stabilize prices provide an important foundation; relative excess production capacity is to prevent excessive price increases in the material basis; more importantly, China's implementation of this year's sound monetary policy is conducive to the control of liquidity, to control the rise in prices to create the conditions.
"We have to have full confidence in controlling prices within the expected target in 2011, because we have the ability and the conditions." Ma Jiantang judgment said.