Topics and content of the two conferences in 2021 From the perspective of keywords, there are six directions:
1. Scientific and technological innovation in almost all provinces is placed in the "C position" (top 3 in various tasks);
2. Highlight industrial transformation and upgrading, with advanced manufacturing, modern service industry, and digital economy being the three major directions;
3. Fixed asset investment targets have been lowered, traditional infrastructure investment has ebbed, and new infrastructure and rail transit are the main directions.
4. Institutional dividends are expected to be further released, focusing on the reform of state-owned enterprises and the market-oriented reform of factors;
5. There are three major ways to increase the importance of promoting consumption;
6. Other concerns include urban areas, carbon peaks, carbon-neutral rural revitalization, etc.
Key issues will be discussed in the 2021 Two Sessions. The market has entered the time of the two sessions. Hot issues such as policy tone, epidemic prevention and control, economic data, development goals, and people's livelihood have become the focus of global attention. At the same time, the stock market has officially entered the time of the two sessions. Next, let’s analyze the stock market conditions of the two sessions over the years, as well as the impact of the two sessions across the country this year on the market.
Judging from historical data, the stock market has shown a certain "two sessions effect." Databao statistics show that in the past ten years (2010~2019), the Shanghai Composite Index has risen six times during the Two Sessions. In the past five years, the Shanghai Composite Index has all achieved positive returns during the Two Sessions. After the two sessions, the upward trend of the market continued in the short term, and the benefits caused by the introduction of relevant policies continued to ferment after the session. Five days and 10 days after the end of the two sessions, the probability of the market rising reached 60% and 70% respectively, and the increase continued to expand.
The GEM performed even better during the two sessions, with a winning rate of two-thirds. During the two sessions in the past ten years, the GEM Index rose by an average of 1.51%, which was better than the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period. During the two sessions in 2019 and 2018, the growth rate of the GEM index was as high as 6.04% and 5.23% respectively. Overall, the positive signals released by the two sessions played a positive catalytic role in the stock market trend.
The food and beverage industry’s winning rate during the two sessions was 80%
During the two sessions, the trends of various industries diverge, with most industries performing relatively flat. Databao statistics show that in the past ten years, among the 28 Shenwan first-level industries, only the food and beverage and communications industries have a winning rate of more than 50% during the two sessions, reaching 80% and 60% respectively. The food and beverage industry is the absolute winner. The winning rate in five industries including mining, non-ferrous metals, and transportation is only 30%.
Judging from the rise and fall of the index, during the two sessions in the past ten years, there were only 11 industry indexes with an average increase greater than 0. Among them, the pharmaceutical and biological index had the highest average increase, reaching 1.41%, and the food and beverage industry had an average increase of 1. 34%, ranked second. Steel, mining, defense industry, and non-bank finance performed the worst, with average declines of more than 1.3%.
CMB International predicts that the government will continue to broadly support domestic demand and consumption, while at the same time promoting infrastructure investment and employment in a targeted manner. Data over the years show that consumer stocks mostly outperformed the market before and after the two sessions. Taking into account this year's policy support and external risks, consumer stocks (including retail, catering, automobiles, education, e-commerce, etc.) are expected to continue to benefit from the two sessions this year and become winners.
In addition, infrastructure investment will still be an important support for economic growth, and it is expected that the government will approve more infrastructure projects after the two sessions.
Under the influence of the new coronavirus epidemic, the pharmaceutical sector has also received the most attention. West China Securities believes that there are three major investment themes worthy of attention in the pharmaceutical theme:
The first is the construction of medical facilities: the epidemic has promoted the replenishment of medical facilities, and the purchase of medical equipment under the new infrastructure in the future will promote the construction of medical facilities.
The second is vaccines: The COVID-19 epidemic has increased vaccine awareness, and long-term vaccine vaccination rates will continue to increase.
The third is innovative drugs: The importance of innovative drug research and development is even more evident during the epidemic.