First of all, the protection of housing has led to the development of the infrastructure industry, decoration, home appliances and electrical appliances; secondly, health care reform is also an important issue; once again, urban transportation, sewage treatment and other areas of investment will be more and more. In the future, the secondary market about urbanization theme stocks will become a hot spot.
Urbanization is a concept with a wide meaning, involving many industries, including traditional infrastructure such as real estate, construction building materials, coal, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, but also environmental protection, new energy and new materials, electronic information and other emerging industries. In the short term, these industries can not be valued according to the theme of urbanization, the long-term these industries are still relatively bullish.
The advancement of urbanization will inevitably lead to a large number of low-protection farmers belonging to the scope of the new rural cooperative into the high protection of the urban health insurance system, which is to promote the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry, one of the driving forces. The process of small towns and cities also exists in the process of environmental pollution worries, so in the relevant infrastructure process, the environmental protection industry has a greater demand. This industry is in line with the policy direction of environmental protection and people's livelihood, a cleaner environment has become the basic needs of residents to live in, but also become the necessary conditions for the sustainable development of small towns and cities.
The investment implications of new urbanization, not necessarily real estate, infrastructure and other traditional cyclical industries, more likely to point to benefit people's livelihood of public **** services, energy saving and environmental protection and agricultural modernization of these three aspects. Specifically to the industry level, analysts tend to think that medicine, culture and media, water conservancy, energy saving and environmental protection industries are more worthy of attention, these industries are expected to fully benefit from the pace of new urbanization.
China's new urbanization is a long-term process that involves the adjustment of regional distribution and industrial structure, as well as the improvement of infrastructure and management level. Analysts believe that in the first stage of small towns and cities, with the matching infrastructure construction will be more attention, especially in the policy tends to be clear at the point of time will be good for the infrastructure plate; and in the second stage of small towns and cities, regional industrial clusters gradually produce benefits, but this stage needs a longer time to observe, in order to find a reasonable investment target.
1, real estate: medium-term growth space
The rapid development of new urbanization is becoming a powerful engine of China's economic growth and social development. The further development of urbanization will inevitably bring about an increase in labor productivity and an expansion of investment in urban public **** services and infrastructure. Against the backdrop of economic restructuring, the construction of new urbanization in the country will become an important driving force for future economic development.
Along with the industry boom rebound, the real estate industry medium-term growth space from the progress of urbanization, the core of which lies in the direction of institutional change. For real estate, if the release of rural land dividends, on the one hand, help to enhance the purchasing power of farmers, on the other hand, help to enhance the supply of land, alleviate the pressure of rising prices brought about by the land resource constraints on the real estate in the medium and long term is relatively good; at the same time, the policy dividends brought about by the institutional changes will promote economic growth, the process of urbanization can be accelerated, the real estate demand has the significance of the incremental.
The process of urbanization is generally divided into two stages, "the first stage is industrialization driven urbanization; the second stage is, infrastructure investment to lay the foundation for urbanization, urbanization led to the development of the real estate market, and ultimately complete the growth path from investment to consumption driven." As the development of the real estate market driven by urbanization is more concentrated in second- and third-tier cities, listed real estate companies whose main business activities are in second- and third-tier cities will become the main market players.
In addition, the thematic opportunities brought by land reform and urbanization policies, companies with more pre-collections, fast sales and in line with the direction of new urbanization will perform, including: Huaxia Happiness (600340), Southland Real Estate (002305), JinkoShares (000656), Suning Global (000718), Tieling Metro (000809), Overseas Chinese Town ( 002669).
2, cement industry
Small towns and cities is the external driving force of the building materials industry, pulling the overall demand for building materials, focusing on cement and pipeline. From a supply perspective, the supply of cement is characterized by a small inventory and a small radius, while cement prices have recently begun to rebound. From a demand perspective, demand for cement and pipes has been increasing in construction, municipal engineering, water conservancy projects, transportation, residential, commercial, agricultural and industrial. Especially in recent years, the rise in demand has pulled China's pipeline industry to develop at a high speed, and China has become the largest production and application of various types of pipelines. www.southmoney.com
In the initial stage of the new urbanization, with which the infrastructure construction is the main event, as the policy tends to be clearer, the cement, steel and building materials sector will usher in a new boom cycle.
Cement downstream demand mainly from infrastructure and real estate. Infrastructure, China has entered a period of accelerated urban supporting construction.
Data shows that in 2011, China's urban population reached 660 million people, exceeding the rural population for the first time, the urbanization rate reached 51.3%. There are currently 19 existing and planned city circles in China, with an overall coverage of nearly 150 cities. It is expected that with the deepening of new urbanization, the development of city circle-type investment will accelerate in the future, with the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and other existing mature city circles becoming the main areas of transformation for investment institutions in the future.
From the demand side and profitability, July-August 2013 is the industry's left inflection point; industry fundamentals have bottomed out, and is expected to recover weakly, there is no need to be pessimistic about the industry, and should begin to actively look for investment opportunities; subsequent investment opportunities, one is the emergence of a margin of safety in the valuation (margin of safety can be determined by reference to the past standards of the PB), and second is to look for opportunities for the bottom-up companies, the bottom-up companies. At this point in time is still relatively optimistic about the fundamentals of better, cheaper valuation of Conch Cement (600585); medium-term attention is likely to plight reversal of Jidong Cement (000401).
3, new building materials: growth space
Future need to pay attention to the first half of 2013 infrastructure railroad start. 2013 can be selected supply and demand relationship advantage of the East China region, pay attention to the investment opportunities of the railroad infrastructure start.
In addition, it is recommended to overweight the concept of new building materials, mainly to benefit from the new urbanization, short-term to maintain high growth, the medium and long term structure accounted for the provision of individual stocks. Promoted by the policy, enamel vertical panels, gypsum boards, waterproof coatings, water supply and drainage pipes and other new building materials will significantly benefit from the construction of new towns and cities, the industry has a large space for growth. The main concern of the company has Beixin building materials (000786), Kaier new material (300234), Longquan shares (002671), Nachuan shares (300198).
4, mass consumer goods: layout of three or four tier cities
213 years can be laid out to share the feast of the new urbanization of leading companies, mass consumer goods companies in three or four tier cities channel layout, expanding the blank regional market. Investors can focus mainly on brand awareness and reputation.
The main concern of the company has Sophia (002572), Yongxin shares (002014) and so on. Another need to take into account the theme of investment, such as falling prices of raw materials, downstream growth of the company to determine, including Yaoji Poker (002605), through the production of Lixing (002243), Zijiang enterprise (600210) and so on. Gold prices rose related stocks, such as Lao Fengxiang (600612), Mingpai Jewelry (002574), Chao Hongji (002345).
5, mechanical equipment
Engineering machinery industry: to promote infrastructure construction, increase the number of engineering construction projects, will expand the demand for machinery and equipment. Whether it is the construction of secure housing or the construction of transportation in the process of urbanization, as well as the mechanization of agriculture, can give mechanical production enterprises to bring the pulling effect. Can focus on: Zoomlion, a drag shares.
Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157) is a leading enterprise in the construction machinery manufacturing industry. Mainly engaged in construction engineering, energy engineering, transportation engineering and other national key infrastructure construction projects required for the development and manufacture of major high-tech equipment. Products cover concrete preparation, conveying, molding machinery, high-grade highway construction and maintenance machinery and other fields. The company produces ten series with complete independent intellectual property rights.
Yi Tou shares (601038) is China's largest and highest technical level of professional agricultural tractors, agricultural diesel engine production and sales enterprises. The main manufacturing and sales of agricultural machinery and power machinery. The company's products are diversified from single to diversified, with a full set of production capacity from forging to testing. It is expected to benefit from the process of small townization and intensive agricultural production in the future.
Automotive: the automotive industry to benefit from the process of small towns and cities mainly for the following three reasons: First, the use of automobiles to make small towns and cities scattered features and benefits can be highlighted, conducive to the optimization of the layout of the space; secondly, with the rural population into the towns and cities, the demand for automobiles is bound to rise; thirdly, it can be a better aid to the construction of a new type of urbanization and industrialization, to accelerate the pace of development. Can focus on: Weichai Power, SAIC.
Electrical equipment: the development of small towns and cities can expand the demand for electrical equipment, especially low-voltage electrical equipment in industry, housing, transportation and other areas of extensive use so that it has a strong potential for development. Can focus on: Chint Electric, Huichuan technology.
Rail transportation: in the process of urbanization, the city's outreach continues to expand, neighboring cities gradually formed a distinctive urban agglomeration. In the context of deep urbanization, optimistic about rapid rail and urban rail metro rail transit industry growth, as well as by the development of freight rail wagons and locomotives brought about by the investment opportunities. Can focus on: China Northern Railway, China Southern Railway, Jinxi Axle.
November 29, Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169) high-speed train key components localization project successfully put into production, attracting China North (601299), China South (601766), TISCO, MaGang, Italy Luchini Railway Company, the West Mark Meier company and other domestic and foreign customers, raw materials and equipment suppliers and project construction unit of concern.
It is reported, Taiyuan Heavy Industries high-speed train key components localization project is to adapt to China's high-speed trains and rail transit technology development needs, set of high-end equipment, high-tech, high-end manufacturing as one of the railroad equipment manufacturing project. The first phase of the project is a high-speed wheel production line, with an investment of 1.686 billion yuan and a construction area of 105,227 square meters, which is the most advanced technology, automation and intelligence of the highest degree of wheel production line in the world; the second phase of the project includes two production lines of wheelset and heavy axle, wheelset assembly production line is mainly for high-speed rail, urban rail and export wheelset, with an annual output of 30,000 pairs of various types of wheelset production capacity, and the production line of heavy axle The heavy axle production line focuses on heavy-duty, high-speed and urban rail high-end axles, with a design capacity of 40,000 axles per year.
After the completion of the project, Taiyuan Heavy Industry is the only domestic enterprise independently supporting the production of high-speed train axles and wheelset integration products, and will gradually realize the localization of key components of high-speed trains, change the history of China's high-speed train axle products dependent on foreign imports, to meet the high-speed trains, heavy-duty trains and the development of urban rail transit needs, and to promote the railroad products of Taiyuan Heavy Industry to the high-end, integrated and international direction, Integration, internationalization direction.