1. Items: The issue price is 64.68 yuan, and the issue price-to-earnings ratio is 32.38 times. and issuance price-to-earnings ratios are both high.
2. Reduction of sub-items: weak performance growth and pre-reduction of mid-term performance. The company's earnings per share since 2017 are: 1.26 yuan; 1 yuan; 1.02 yuan; 3.31 yuan; 2.88 yuan. Earnings per share in the first quarter of this year were 0.58 yuan. Performance is expected to decline slightly from January to June 2022, with attributable net profit of 78.71 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.99, operating income of 307.1 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91, and non-net profit of 74.12 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.04.
3. Bonus points: online office concept stocks. The company is mainly engaged in the production, sales and related technical services of high-definition and ultra-high-definition video conferencing cameras, video conferencing terminals, conference microphones and other audio and video communication equipment, including cameras, video conferencing terminals, audio equipment and other products, among which cameras The revenue proportion in 2021 is 83.72%, which is the absolute main force; video conferencing terminal is the overall solution for video conferencing, with a revenue proportion of 9.02%.
Fourth, reduce sub-items: industry growth returns to normal. The great development of the video conferencing industry in 2020 was due to the prevalence of online office work due to the epidemic, but the demand for video conferencing began to weaken significantly in 2021. As the global leader in video conferencing, ZOOM's global market share is as high as 26.1 in 2020. However, despite the recurrence of the epidemic, its revenue growth will decline quarter by quarter in 2021, and its stock price has dropped by nearly 85% from its peak. Affected by this, the company's annual sales revenue to Haverford and Avaya Inc in 2021 dropped by 65.98 and 40.36 respectively compared with 2020. Both revenue and net profit declined in 2021.
Fifth, the company mainly operates in the ODM mode. From 2019 to 2021, the proportion of this model in the main business reached 85.56, 87.45 and 83.68 respectively; the scale of self-owned brand products is small, only 40 million yuan, 84 million yuan and 94 million yuan, and the revenue proportion is only 13.93, 12.51 and 15.67.
Sixth, the export rate is high. From 2019 to 2021, export revenue accounted for 41.96, 64.14, and 44.32 of the total revenue respectively, and ODM revenue accounted for as high as 50.03, 73.46, and 53.45, which is more than half.
The company’s cameras, video conferencing terminals, audio equipment and other products are included in the $300 billion list of Chinese exports to the United States. Before September 1, 2019, the original U.S. import tariff rate was 0. September 1, 2019 From February 14 to February 14, 2020, an additional tariff of RMB 15 will be levied. Effective from February 14, 2020, the tax increase rate has been reduced to 7.5.
Seventh, competition in the industry is fierce and products do not have any moats. The company is in the middle of the video conferencing industry and knows nothing about key core components. What it does is design, assembly and manufacturing, which are links with low technical barriers. There are no obvious technical barriers and we can only rely on fragmented channels. Restricted by brand manufacturers (Cisco, Huawei, ZTE, Suzhou Keda) and system integrators (ZOOM, Microsoft, Tencent Conference, DingTalk), ODM business accounts for as much as 85% of the unit price.
Eighth, the prices of major products have dropped. The company has four major segments: cameras, video conferencing terminals, audio equipment, and accessories, among which cameras are the main product. However, the average unit price of camera products is on a downward trend, and the logic of exchanging price for quantity is obvious. It has increased from 955.22 yuan per set in 2019 to 886.50 yuan per set in 2021.
Ninth, comprehensive evaluation: The success and failure of a company are also epidemics. The 2020 epidemic triggered a demand for online meetings, and the company made a fortune. As the epidemic slows down, market demand declines, and the company's performance growth slows down. The company's industry is highly competitive; its products do not have any moats; the prices of its main products have dropped; the ODM model also puts the company in a dilemma, and it lacks bargaining power and voice under pressure; in addition, the company's exports account for a large proportion, and trade wars and exchange rate changes have an impact on the company's performance The impact is greater.
The issuance price recognized in the market is 35 yuan to 40 yuan, but the actual issuance price is as high as 64.68 yuan. There is a risk of a break in the first day of listing; even if it does not break, the company's fundamentals of declining performance will have limited room for premiums.
Tenth, suggestion: buy with caution. /orj360/006Jsid4gy1h4opf4lg0wj30tm160n0i.jpg